" 低价补贴模式或难以为继。 " 作者丨陈嘉欣 编辑丨梁辰 最近，一场"没有假球，全是世仇"的苏超球赛成为国民级热梗来源。热心网友喊话宿迁人刘强东，比起京 东不久前赞助的欧冠，苏超的"爱恨情仇"或许更值得直播带货。 6月13日，听劝的京东官宣成为苏超官方战略合作伙伴。"场上十三太保，场下京东管饱"等玩梗标语的传 播度随赛事热度一起增长，让京东再次成为外卖平台中的"显眼包"。 对于刚闯入外卖赛道的京东来说，苏超是一个难得的营销机遇。 京东相关负责人表示，双方合作将打造"体育+电商+外卖"的创新融合模式，赛事期间，京东将推出1万罐 啤酒1分钱送活动，赛事结束后则将开启获胜城市特色商品、美食外卖和农特产品大补贴秒杀活动等。 夏季的大型体育赛事一般都是外卖平台的狂欢时刻。饿了么数据显示，去年欧洲杯期间，夜宵时间段内冰 品冷饮外卖量环比增长100%，零售外卖量环比增长也超过30%。 过去这块红利被美团饿了么两家瓜分，如今京东入场搅局，谁能优先拿到合作名额，意味着谁将在后续竞 争中有更大胜算。这对想在外卖赛道站稳脚跟的京东来说，是不可能放弃的好机会。 据统计，5月15日京东日订单量突破2000万单。从1000万单增长到2 ...

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gradually recovering, with structural highlights emerging, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods sectors [2][5][12] - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector [12][13] Industry Overview Liquor Sector - Liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets, focusing on healthy operations. Most companies have abandoned aggressive growth goals for 2024, instead aiming for stable operations [5][7] - The industry is entering a phase of inventory clearance, with expectations of gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Key players are advised to focus on channel health and payment quality [5][7] - Specific company insights include: - Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong market positions, while other brands are adjusting strategies to manage inventory and pricing [7][8] - The overall growth target for the liquor industry has been adjusted to a range of 5% to 10% [7] Consumer Goods Sector - Traditional leaders in dairy, beer, and yeast are showing signs of recovery, while new business models are gaining traction [9][12] - Key insights from specific companies include: - Yili is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.7% in 2025, with a focus on high-quality products [9][10] - Anqi Yeast is experiencing steady growth driven by overseas markets and cost advantages [10] - Modern Dairy anticipates double-digit growth in raw milk production, supported by improved operational efficiency [10] - The snack and beverage segments are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading liquor brands as they begin to show signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu [12][13] - In the consumer goods sector, there is an emphasis on snacks and beverages, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish, as well as a focus on the recovery of the beer and dairy sectors [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

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