从周末释放的信息来看，无论是外围环境改善，还是国内政策节点临近，都为市场反弹提供了有利条 件，这也是判断下周修复概率提升的核心依据。? 外围利空出尽，风险偏好回升：首先，"川字头" 相关言论释放关税缓和信号，明确 "关税不可持续"， 直接缓解了市场对中美贸易摩擦升级的担忧 —— 此前关税不确定性一直是压制出口型企业及市场情绪 的重要因素，此次态度转向相当于移除了一个关键利空。其次，美国区域性银行业绩缓解，华尔街对信 贷危机的担忧降温，这一变化避免了 "新次贷危机" 预期扩散，而周五夜盘美股上扬、富时 A50 与恒生 指数期货大幅拉升，正是市场情绪好转的直接体现。更值得关注的是黄金、白银快速跳水，这一细节表 明资金从 "避险资产" 向 "风险资产" 转移，短期市场风险偏好已明显回升，为 A 股反弹铺垫了外部环 境。? 国内政策节点临近，预期支撑增强：本周一是重要会议召开的关键节点，而 15 规划纲要草案将在会议 后编撰 —— 这类顶层设计会议往往会明确未来产业发展方向（如科技、新能源、高端制造等），释放 政策支持信号，不仅能稳定市场对经济发展的预期，还可能为相关主流赛道带来新的催化。同时，需要 明确的是，上周 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Double Innovation ETF (588300) has seen a net financing inflow of 394.17 million yuan on August 25, 2025, with a total financing balance of 2769.81 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards this ETF [1][2][3] - Over the past three trading days, the ETF has recorded a cumulative net inflow of 480.71 million yuan, suggesting sustained interest from investors [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there have been 11 days with net financing inflows, highlighting a consistent pattern of investment activity [1] Group 2 - The financing balance increased by 16.59% on August 25, 2025, compared to the previous day, reflecting a significant rise in investor engagement [2][3] - The financing balance on August 22, 2025, was 2375.64 million yuan, which shows a smaller increase of 1.07% from the previous trading day [3] - The financing balance on August 19, 2025, was notably lower at 222.41 million yuan, with a decrease of 5.91%, indicating fluctuations in investor confidence [3]