Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for August is "Bullish", suggesting that going long in the bond market is the path of least resistance [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The tax policy adjustment on August 8, 2025, will resume the collection of VAT on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, which will impact bond pricing and investment strategies [2][6]. - The bond market is recommended to go long in August, with the 10Y Treasury yield expected to return to around 1.65% and the 5Y state - owned and joint - stock secondary bonds to fall below 1.9% [3][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds, with a clear demarcation between old and new bonds, and no changes to income tax and bond transfer income tax policies [2][6]. - Before the new tax policy, general financial institutions paid 6% VAT on interest income during financial product holding, while asset management products and public funds paid 3% using the simplified tax calculation method. Interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial inter - bank transactions was VAT - exempt [2][8]. - After the new policy, public funds will pay a total of 3.26% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the trading spread income remains VAT - exempt. Asset management products like bank wealth management need to pay 3.26% VAT and surcharges on both interest and trading spread income of newly - issued bonds [2][9]. - Commercial banks' self - operation will pay a total of 6.34% VAT and surcharges on the interest income of newly - issued government bonds and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, while the interest income of bonds issued before remains VAT - exempt until maturity [10]. - The interest income from inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank deposits will continue to be VAT - exempt [2][12]. - The interest income from discounted government bonds and policy - based financial bonds issued after August 8 may be subject to VAT [11]. Impact on Bond Pricing - The new tax policy may cause a yield spread of 5 - 10BP between government bonds and financial bonds issued before and after August 8, mainly to compensate for the VAT difference [2][14][15]. - The new tax policy will make the yields of newly - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds of the same term and rating closer, but there are still capital occupation differences for bank self - operation investors [3][19][20]. Impact on Commercial Banks - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of financial bonds issued by commercial banks was 10.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.9% of total liabilities. The new tax policy has a small impact on commercial banks' liability costs and short - term performance [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - In August, the bond market is recommended to go long, with a preference for long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds, and US dollar bonds. Perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and attention should be paid to the capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][20].

银行 2025 年 06 月 19 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 银行 沪深300 liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 负债端：大行非银存款延续高增，4-5 月累计新增 2.6 万亿元 5 月大行负债端仍然延续 4 月非银存款大幅增长的态势，推动存贷增速差继续向 上修复。我们认为这可能反映两个现象：一是银行阶段性向非银同业扩表，二是 存款降息后搬家效应初步显现（分流向理财及其他资管产品、股市等）。从其他 存款性公司资产负债表来看，5 月"对其他金融机构债权"增加 6226 亿元，较 4 月增量明显修复，或反映银行向非银融出恢复，以及部分银行在预期 6 月负债缺 口较大时提前增加短债、货基等短期资产储备。由于有较大比例定存尚未到期， 推测脱媒现象或陆续反映。 评估下阶段的路径，居民存款或主要分流至风险偏好接近的现金管理类、短债 理财，而股市涨幅缓慢时分流存款效能较弱。5 月"对其他金融性公司负债"和 "计入 M2 的存款"增幅接近，可能说明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative, the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has significantly increased, with current deposits flowing out and time deposits remaining relatively stable. Money market funds need to address the issue of interest loss caused by the adjustment of time deposits exceeding the "restricted assets" [1][12]. - In April 2025, due to tariff upgrades, the central level of funds stepped down. The central bank's open - market operations were flexible, and the overall operation of funds was stable. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [4][71]. - In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio will offset the potential disturbances of fiscal factors to the capital market, and the pressure on the capital gap will be significantly alleviated. In the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to Respond to the Reduction of Early - Withdrawal Pricing for Money Market Funds? 3.1.1 Inter - bank Deposit Changes: Current Deposits Flow Out, Time Deposits Remain Relatively Stable - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative in November 2024, except for the increase in February driven by the transfer of current deposits to time deposits, inter - bank deposits have flowed out significantly in other months, and the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has increased. From December 2024 to March 2025, inter - bank deposits decreased by 3.3 trillion yuan [12]. - In terms of term structure, current deposits have flowed out significantly, while time deposits have remained relatively stable. The outflow of inter - bank deposits is mainly concentrated in large - scale banks, which is consistent with the distribution of current deposits. By comparing the first and second halves of 2024, the current deposits of important money market funds decreased from 4719 billion yuan to 1528 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 70%, while time deposits decreased from 7234 billion yuan to 6818 billion yuan, a decrease of only 6% [13]. 3.1.2 How Large is the Scale of Time Deposits of Money Market Funds Exceeding "Restricted Assets"? - The proportion of time deposits in the net asset value of important money market funds at the end of 2024 was about 30%. Based on the total net asset value of all money market funds in the first quarter of 2025, which was 13.3 trillion yuan, the scale of inter - bank time deposits was about 4 trillion yuan [19]. - With a 10% upper limit for restricted assets, the upper limit for inter - bank time deposits of money market funds with a maturity of more than 10 trading days is about 1.3 trillion yuan. In an extreme scenario, 2.7 trillion yuan of the 4 - trillion - yuan inter - bank time deposits need to be adjusted [19]. 3.1.3 How Do Money Market Funds Respond? - Response 1: Using the fund risk reserve to compensate for part of the interest loss from early - withdrawal. The lower limit of the fund company's risk reserve is about 320 billion yuan. The interest loss of 2.7 trillion yuan of early - withdrawal time deposits is about 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the risk reserve. However, due to the complex process, it can only cover a small part of the early - withdrawal deposits [20][22]. - Response 2: Rolling over 14 - day inter - bank time deposits. Since the beginning of this year, the term spread of inter - bank deposits with a maturity of less than 14 days has significantly narrowed. Generalized fund products may prefer short - term products with a maturity of less than 14 days [26]. 3.2 Review of the April Capital Market and Liquidity: Tariff Upgrades, Central Level of Funds Steps Down 3.2.1 Capital Market Review: The Fluctuation Range of Funds Widens - In April 2025, due to trade frictions, the central level of funds stepped down to 1.6 - 1.7%. The fluctuation ranges of overnight and 7 - day weighted prices increased compared with March. The spread between 7 - day and overnight funds was mostly around 5bp, with two days of inversion [28]. - In terms of capital operation, the central bank's open - market operations were flexible. In the early stage of the tariff conflict, the capital constraint was relaxed, and the central level of DR007 stepped down. In the middle and late stages, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase operations to hedge against disturbances, and the capital operation was generally stable. At the end of the month, the DR007 price slightly decreased and broke through 1.7% [33]. - In terms of capital stratification, the pressure on stratification was not significant in April, and the spread narrowed. The spread between R007 and DR007 and the spread between GC007 and DR007 both decreased [38]. 3.2.2 Liquidity Review: Limited Disturbances from Gaps, the Central Bank Increases Support, and the Capital Market Continues to Recover - Liquidity Aggregate: In April, the excess reserve level was low, with an excess reserve rate of about 1.0% and a narrow - sense excess reserve level of about 0.45% after deducting reverse - repurchases, which is a seasonally low level. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may increase the excess reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points, and the excess reserve level may return to the seasonal level [56]. - Open - Market Operations: In April, the central bank's open - market operations continued to increase. The reverse - repurchase balance first decreased and then increased. The MLF was over - renewed, with a net investment of 500 billion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was equal to the net withdrawal of outright reverse - repurchases. The outright reverse - repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 500 billion yuan [59][65][67]. 3.3 April Monetary Policy Tracking: The Goal of "Stabilizing Growth" Takes Precedence, and Double Reductions are Implemented in May - In April 2025, the central bank focused more on "stabilizing growth" on the basis of the "moderately loose" policy tone, and the central level of funds stepped down. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [71]. - After the tariff upgrade in early April, the central bank supported Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock ETFs and provided sufficient re - loans. In the middle and late April, the central bank's OMO changed from net withdrawal to net investment to hedge against various disturbances. At the end of April, the MLF was over - renewed, and the Politburo meeting continued the "moderately loose" tone. On May 7, the central bank announced the simultaneous implementation of the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [71][74]. 3.4 May Gap Prediction: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio is Implemented, and the Capital Expectation is Eased 3.4.1 Rigid Gap: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Releases Excess Reserves, and it is a Big Month for the Maturity of Outright Reverse - Repurchases - In May, as it is a small month for general deposits, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of excess reserves. The maturity scale of MLF is 125 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of outright reverse - repurchases is 900 billion yuan [78]. 3.4.2 Exogenous Shocks: The Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits on Excess Reserves is Small - In May, cash inflows may supplement about 60 billion yuan, and non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves [81]. 3.4.3 Fiscal Factors: The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates, and the Tax Payment Scale is Relatively Large - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds may rise to about 1.68 trillion yuan, and the tax payment scale is relatively large. The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release more than one trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity, and the payment and tax payment are mainly short - term capital disturbances, so the capital expectation may tend to ease [85]. 3.4.4 Comprehensive Judgment: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Stabilizes the Disturbances from Payments, and the Capital Expectation is Eased - Overall, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of liquidity, and cash inflows and non - financial institution deposits will slightly supplement liquidity. The maturity of 900 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF requires attention to the central bank's hedging tools. The absorption of liquidity by government deposits may be about 600 billion yuan. After the implementation of the double - reduction policy, the capital expectation has been significantly eased, and in the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [89][94].

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 一季度债市波动中，理财负债整体稳定，但年初以来及4月理财子在现券市场净买入增长并不突出。我们认为出现这一现象，一 方面缘于目前委外投资仍是理财现阶段应对波动的核心工具；另一方面综合收益性价比考量，理财子对存款类资产及货币融出 的配置偏好出现阶段性提升，一定程度替代了信用债的配置需求。展望理财子后市，二季度是全年银行理财规模扩容的重要时 点，我们预计4月银行理财市场规模增长有望达到1 . 7 - 1 . 8万亿元，负债资金的扩容仍能对债市整体提供较强的支撑。 ▍ 一季度债市波动中，理财负债整体稳定。 2 5Q1银行理财市场规模先涨后跌，季度规模合计收缩8 5 0 0亿元；对比往年来看，一季度银行理财规模的降幅相对温和，考虑 到季节性的回表因素与市场调整，负债端压力整体可控；相较于同期债基产品的急涨急跌，银行理财在本轮债市波动中体现出 了较强的净值稳定性，成为其应对负债扰动的核心保障。 ▍ 二季度银行理财开启冲量行情。 二季度是全年银行理财规模扩容的重要时点，其中4月尤为关键；参考我们周度跟踪测算的规模数据，截至到2 0 2 5年4月2 0日 银行理财市场规模已完全修复一季度 ...