证券研究报告 2025.12.10 理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 ⚫ 银行 | 低利率时代的业务选择——1H25理财综述 (2025.07.29) 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Wealth Allocation and Asset Management Conference and the 2025 Banking Industry High-Quality Development Conference were held in Shenzhen, focusing on how wealth management institutions can enhance residents' wealth preservation and appreciation through upgraded service models [1] - The current wealth management market is showing a steady recovery, with a notable demand for equity products, indicating an increased interest in equity asset allocation [1] - The banking wealth management industry is facing unprecedented challenges but also greater opportunities, prompting institutions to prioritize investor interests and enhance product offerings and customer experience [1] Group 2 - ICBC Wealth Management aims to become a fully functional wealth management company, providing a comprehensive range of products and adapting to new challenges in the asset management industry [2] - The growing demand for diversified asset allocation among residents is driving the overall scale of the wealth management market and leading to significant structural changes, with various financial institutions accelerating their entry into the market [2] - The collaboration between public funds and the banking sector is seen as a key support for the high-quality development of banking wealth management [2] Group 3 - Securities companies are increasingly playing a vital role in helping residents preserve and grow their wealth by transitioning to a buyer-oriented advisory model [3] - The integration of banking wealth management and securities asset management is essential for responding to market changes and building a high-quality development ecosystem [3] - The interest of domestic investors in allocating overseas quality assets is rising, with a focus on alternative asset opportunities and multi-asset allocation strategies [3] Group 4 - Despite facing old problems and new challenges, the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, necessitating proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [4] - Key strategies for activating economic potential include normalizing local investments, forming new consumer groups, and nurturing new industry demands related to emerging sectors [4] Group 5 - The 2026 investment opportunities are expected to arise from policy synergies and industrial upgrades, with particular attention on sectors such as renewable energy, new materials, chips, embodied intelligence, smart home technology, and health consumption [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and the behavior of various financial institutions in 2025 and projections for 2026, focusing on the fixed income sector and insurance industry [1][2][3][5][6]. Key Points Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the total new bond investment reached 7 trillion, double the highest value in previous years, but did not significantly impact secondary market interest rates due to large banks primarily purchasing short-term government bonds to balance duration [1][3]. - Agricultural commercial banks faced regulatory constraints and a shift back to core lending activities, resulting in historically low growth rates in financial investments [1][3]. - Insurance companies showed a preference for equity assets over bonds, with new equity investments exceeding 900 billion, while bond investments were less than 300 billion. They maintained some allocation to long-term local government bonds but were reluctant to invest in government bonds, quickly selling off long-term bonds during interest rate declines [1][3][6]. - Fund leverage remained stable, but duration levels fluctuated significantly, with a cautious approach in the latter half of the year leading to substantial sell-offs of long-term bonds [1][4]. Projections for 2026 - The market is expected to see an increase in the proportion of rights products, with fixed income plus products likely to expand. Non-policy financial bonds may attract capital inflows, while policy-driven financial products may weaken [1][5]. - The insurance industry is projected to weaken further in 2026, with high dividend stocks becoming more attractive as they help mitigate duration mismatch issues. The demand for long-term government bonds is expected to decrease as the supply has already filled the duration gap [6][7]. - Regulatory changes are anticipated to impact operational strategies and asset allocation across various institutions, necessitating enhanced active management capabilities [5][10]. Risks and Market Changes - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility in the coming year, with net financing speeds for long-term government bonds remaining high. The large holdings by institutions could lead to significant impacts on the financial system if interest rates fluctuate [2][8][9]. - The central bank is expected to implement more precise controls to prevent systemic risks, with large banks playing a stabilizing role in the market [2][9]. Regulatory Impacts - Upcoming regulations, including fund fee reforms and new accounting standards for insurance companies, are expected to influence market behavior. Institutions may shift towards ETFs or similar products for liquidity management and focus more on long-term active management [10][11]. - The overall impact of new accounting standards on the insurance sector is expected to be limited, as many companies have already adapted to these changes [11]. Additional Important Insights - The insurance sector's capacity for equity asset allocation remains significant, with potential for an additional 3.7 trillion in equity investments, indicating a strong policy signal rather than strict constraints [7]. - The anticipated stability in traditional life insurance premium income is expected to persist, with no strong demand for bond purchases due to the lack of attractive investment opportunities [6][11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant management change at Xinyin Wealth Management, with He Jin appointed as the new president, succeeding Dong Wenzhe, who has moved to become the head of the Fuzhou branch of CITIC Bank [1][2] - He Jin, born in January 1979, has extensive experience in the banking and asset management sectors, having worked for major banks including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China before joining CITIC Bank in 2016 [2] - Since its establishment in July 2020, Xinyin Wealth Management has undergone several leadership changes, with a registered capital of 5 billion yuan and a focus on various asset management services [2] Group 2 - As of the end of September 2025, Xinyin Wealth Management's managed scale of wealth management products reached 2.21 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.90%, with the number of clients increasing by 9.44% to 10.92 million [3] - The company generated investment returns of 33.71 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 15.15% increase compared to the previous year [3] - Xinyin Wealth Management is accelerating the development of a dual-driven growth model that combines multi-asset and multi-strategy investment with advisory services, aiming to become a key supplier of rights-containing products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant leadership change at Xinyin Wealth Management, with He Jin taking over as president from Dong Wenzhen, who has moved to a new role at CITIC Bank's Fuzhou branch [2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - He Jin, born in January 1979 and a graduate of Peking University, has extensive experience in the banking and asset management sectors, having worked at major banks including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China before joining CITIC Bank [3]. - He Jin has been with Xinyin Wealth Management since its inception, serving in various roles including vice president and overseeing multiple business areas such as investment, research, risk, and finance [3]. - The leadership transition reflects a broader trend within Xinyin Wealth Management, which has seen multiple changes in its top management since its establishment in July 2020 [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - As of September 2025, Xinyin Wealth Management's asset management scale reached 2.21 trillion yuan, marking a 10.90% increase from the end of the previous year [4]. - The number of clients holding wealth management products grew to 10.92 million, a 9.44% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company generated investment returns of 33.71 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting a 15.15% year-on-year growth [4]. Group 3: Product Development - Xinyin Wealth Management is focusing on a dual-driven growth strategy that combines multi-asset and multi-strategy investment with advisory services, aiming to become a key supplier of rights-based products [4]. - As of September 2025, the scale of rights-based products reached 261.02 billion yuan, an increase of 53.94 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with the proportion of new products rising from 9.83% to 11.94% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of rights-containing products by banks is driven by the need to address the challenges posed by declining market interest rates and the pressure to increase revenue from wealth management product distribution [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bank wealth management market is experiencing a shift towards rights-containing products, with a significant increase in the proportion of equity investments [2][5]. - In August, the total scale of wealth management products in the market remained stable at 31.2 trillion yuan, indicating that funds are circulating internally rather than shrinking [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - High-net-worth investors are actively reallocating their investments from pure fixed-income products to rights-containing products with an equity investment ratio of at least 30% [6][8]. - The preference for rights-containing products with an equity investment ratio between 20% and 45% has led to substantial net inflows of wealth management funds [3][6]. Group 3: Product Development Challenges - The rapid growth of rights-containing products has created challenges in maintaining yield, as larger fund sizes can dilute returns [11][12]. - Banks are facing pressure to design and develop rights-containing products that meet new investor demands, particularly for flexible, daily-open products [12]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Rights-containing products linked to dividend strategies and index strategies have achieved annualized returns exceeding 10%, with maximum drawdowns below 2.5%, aligning with investor risk preferences [9][11]. - The introduction of performance management metrics, such as the ratio of annualized absolute return to maximum drawdown, is being considered to balance high return targets with low investment risk [12].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a shift towards equity-linked products, with a notable increase in the proportion of equity investments in these products [1][2][3] - The trend of reallocating funds from pure fixed-income products to equity-linked products is driven by the need to adapt to declining market interest rates and the challenges faced in selling traditional fixed-income products [2][8] - High-net-worth investors are actively adjusting their investment strategies, favoring equity-linked products with a central equity investment ratio of at least 30% [4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The total scale of wealth management products in August reached 31.2 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of internal circulation of funds [1] - There is a significant net inflow of funds into equity-linked products with an equity investment ratio between 20% and 45% [2] - The issuance of mixed products by banking wealth management subsidiaries has increased, with 45 new products launched in July, surpassing the average monthly issuance in the first half of the year [7] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly choosing to invest in equity-linked products rather than directly entering the stock market, reflecting a cautious approach due to past experiences with stock market volatility [3][4] - High-net-worth investors are particularly active in reallocating their funds, moving from pure fixed-income products to more balanced equity-linked products [4][5] - Many investors prefer flexible, daily-open equity-linked products over fixed-term or long-locked products, seeking liquidity amid market fluctuations [9] Group 3: Product Development Challenges - Wealth management subsidiaries face challenges in designing suitable equity-linked products that meet new investor demands, particularly regarding liquidity and risk management [9] - The rapid growth in the scale of R3-rated equity-linked products poses risks of yield dilution and position reduction, prompting companies to diversify investment strategies [8][9] - Companies are exploring customized wealth management services to cater to high-net-worth investors' specific needs, aiming to alleviate pressure from increasing fund scales [8]

Core Insights - The overall scale of public funds in China is rapidly increasing, particularly in equity funds, which are expected to play a more significant role in the capital market by 2025 [1][2] - The current contribution of equity products remains below 20%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to developed markets where equity fund proportions are much higher [2][3] - Regulatory efforts are focused on enhancing the weight of equity funds in public fund evaluations and optimizing product registration to support the development of various equity-related products [4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 30, the total scale of domestic public funds reached 33.72 trillion yuan, with equity funds accounting for approximately 18.8% of this total [2] - The growth of passive investment, particularly ETFs, is expected to become a major driver for the expansion of equity assets, with passive equity fund sizes projected to surpass active equity funds by Q4 2024 [3] - The demand for equity funds is increasing due to a shift in investor preferences towards long-term investments that can combat inflation, especially as traditional fixed-income yields decline [6][9] Group 2: Regulatory and Strategic Developments - The regulatory framework aims to enhance the actual investment levels and proportions of equity funds by expediting the approval process for mixed and secondary bond funds with equity components [5][6] - Fund companies are diversifying their strategies, with larger firms focusing on both active and passive equity funds, while smaller firms are exploring quantitative and index-enhanced strategies [7][8] - The emphasis on differentiated competition and high-quality development is driving fund companies to innovate and avoid homogenization in their product offerings [6][10] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The industry faces challenges such as ensuring product quality and addressing issues of "holding" and "homogenization" in fund offerings [10][11] - Companies are encouraged to clarify their investment strategies, diversify their offerings to meet specific investor needs, and enhance investor education and support throughout the investment lifecycle [11]

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market experienced fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with a decline in the overall scale in the first quarter, followed by a gradual recovery in the second quarter, reaching a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June, a growth of 2.38% compared to the beginning of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - By the end of June, the number of wealth management products reached 27.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.98%, accounting for 89.61% of the total market [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen multiple breakthroughs of previous highs, closing at 3812.51 points [2]. - Non-bank financial institutions saw a record monthly increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits, the highest level since 2015, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Among 24 disclosed bank wealth management companies, the total net profit reached approximately 156.67 billion yuan, with most companies maintaining growth, although some faced profit pressure [3][5]. - Six companies, including China Merchants Bank Wealth Management and Bank of China Wealth Management, reported net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with China Merchants Bank leading at 13.64 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 5.74% [3][5]. - Some companies, such as Ping An Wealth Management, reported significant declines in net profit, with a 41.28% drop to 7 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The performance disparity among wealth management companies is attributed to macroeconomic factors and strategic adjustments by institutions, with a shift of resident savings towards net value-based products due to declining deposit rates [4][10]. - The rise of foreign wealth management companies is notable, with firms like BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs seeing substantial growth in their asset management scales, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. - The overall trend suggests that larger institutions with better resource endowments and research capabilities will continue to dominate, while smaller firms may struggle to survive [5][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The low interest rate environment is expected to continue driving funds into the wealth management market, with companies encouraged to diversify their product offerings to meet varying customer needs [10][11]. - There is a growing interest in gold as a hedge against market volatility, with predictions of rising gold prices due to global economic conditions [11].

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market in the first half of 2025 experienced fluctuations, with a gradual recovery in the second quarter, leading to a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June, a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall scale of the wealth management market decreased in the first quarter but began to recover in the second quarter, reaching a total of 30.67 trillion yuan by June 30 [4]. - The number of existing wealth management products reached 27.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen multiple breakthroughs of previous highs, closing at 3812.51 points [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Among 24 disclosed wealth management companies, a total net profit of 156.67 billion yuan was achieved, with some companies experiencing significant profit declines while others maintained high growth [6][8]. - 招银理财 (Zhaoyin Wealth Management) led the industry with a net profit of 13.64 billion yuan, despite a 5.74% decrease year-on-year [6]. - 浦银理财 (Puyin Wealth Management) showed remarkable growth with a net profit of 9.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 70% [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The performance disparity among wealth management companies is influenced by macroeconomic factors and strategic adjustments within institutions [7]. - The trend of declining deposit rates has accelerated the shift of resident savings into net value-based wealth management products, providing stable funding sources [7]. - Foreign wealth management companies have emerged as significant players, with notable growth rates, such as 法巴农银理财 (French Bank Agricultural Bank Wealth Management) achieving a nearly fivefold increase in scale [10][11]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Some companies, like 平安理财 (Ping An Wealth Management), faced substantial profit declines, with a 41.28% drop in net profit [8]. - The pressure on profitability is attributed to the "ceiling" effect of scale and the trend of reducing management fees, which compresses revenue [8]. - The market is expected to continue expanding as deposit rates decline, prompting wealth management companies to enhance product offerings and service channels [14].