1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Price growth remains weak, and the policy bottom - support effect is emerging. The price recovery in July shows the characteristics of "consumption stronger than production, and policy - driven repair". The marginal improvement in price data in July, with CPI turning positive month - on - month and the narrowing of PPI decline, is closely related to the intensive implementation of "anti - involution" policies and the continuous efforts of domestic demand expansion policies since July [2][9][86]. - The continuous rise of core CPI inflation may indicate that the domestic demand expansion policy's bottom - support effect on domestic demand is gradually emerging, while the narrowing of PPI decline may rely more on the policy's regulation of the supply - side competition order, and the impact of the substantial expansion of the demand side needs continuous observation [2][10][86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - level News - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, mainly affected by low food prices. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices was up 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. CPI was up 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the seasonal level by 0.1 pct, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices [12]. - In July, PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. PPI was down 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 pct compared to last month, the first narrowing of the month - on - month decline since March. The price recovery of production materials mainly occurred in July [15]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. Exports were 15.3 trillion yuan, up 7.3% year - on - year; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 pct compared to the first six months. In July, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, up 6.7% year - on - year. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year [17]. 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 31, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 9.7 million vehicles, down 0.8% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume was 17.2 million vehicles, up 1.3% year - on - year. As of August 8, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 168,932,800 yuan, up 98.5% year - on - year [20]. - As of August 1, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.739 million units, down 3.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales were 4.05 billion yuan, up 2.7% year - on - year [22]. 2.2 Transportation - As of August 3, the port's container throughput was 5.68 million twenty - foot equivalent units, down 7.0% year - on - year. As of August 7, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 3,934,400 person - times, down 1.3% year - on - year [25]. - As of August 3, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.6 billion pieces, up 14.6% year - on - year. The railway freight volume was 77.694 million tons, up 6.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.2593 million vehicles, up 2.8% year - on - year [27][31]. 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of August 6, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.5%, up 3.4 pct year - on - year. As of August 7, the average asphalt operating rate was 25.0%, up 2.0 pct year - on - year [34]. - As of August 7, the soda ash operating rate was 85.2%, down 4.8 pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.1 pct year - on - year. As of August 8, the average PX operating rate was 82.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 76.8% [37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of August 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.392 million square meters, down 17.8% year - on - year. The total number of commercial housing transactions was 15,625 units, down 15.5% year - on - year [41][43]. 2.5 Prices - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg, down 21.2% year - on - year and 0.8% compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg, down 16.9% year - on - year and up 4.1% compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of six key fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg, down 4.3% year - on - year and 4.5% compared to four weeks ago [48]. - As of August 8, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 665 yuan/ton, down 21.7% year - on - year and up 7.8% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.4 US dollars/barrel, down 11.9% year - on - year and 3.3% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of rebar was 3,328.1 yuan/ton, up 4.23% year - on - year and 6.5% compared to four weeks ago [51]. - As of August 8, the average spot price of iron ore was 786.5 yuan/ton, down 0.9% year - on - year and up 5.7% compared to four weeks ago; the average spot price of glass was 15.2 yuan/square meter, down 11.9% year - on - year and up 8.2% compared to four weeks ago [56]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On August 8, overnight Shibor was 1.31%, up 0.04 BP from August 4. R001 was 1.34%, down 0.99 BP from August 4; R007 was 1.45%, down 2.17 BP from August 4. DR001 was 1.31%, down 0.30 BP from August 4; DR007 was 1.43%, down 2.67 BP from August 4. IBO001 was 1.35%, up 0.17 BP from August 4; IBO007 was 1.50%, up 0.78 BP from August 4 [62]. - Most government bond yields declined. On August 8, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year government bonds were 1.35%/1.54%/1.69%/1.96% respectively, down 2.0 BP/2.4 BP/1.9 BP/up 0.9 BP compared to August 1. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.50%/1.66%/1.78%/2.05% respectively, up 0.0 BP/down 0.6 BP/up 1.6 BP/up 0.2 BP compared to August 1 [66]. - On August 8, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.38%/1.66%/1.82% respectively, down 0.3 BP/up 0.4 BP/up 0.2 BP compared to August 1. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.46%/1.62%/1.48%/1.66% respectively, down 1.3 BP from August 1 [72]. - As of August 8, 2025, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.5%, 4.6%, and 2.7% respectively, up 4 BP/down 7 BP/up 6 BP/down 6 BP compared to August 1. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.14/7.18 respectively, down 114/280 pips from August 1 [77][80]. 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of interest - rate bond medium - and long - term pure bond funds has shown a trend of first decline and then rise, and has been declining in the past two weeks. On August 8, the estimated average duration was about 5.2 years, down about 0.12 years from August 1 [83]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of credit - bond medium - and long - term pure bond funds has shown a volatile trend. In the past three weeks, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. On August 8, the estimated median duration was about 2.7 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, down about 0.03 years from August 1 [84]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Going long in the bond market is currently the path of least resistance. In August, the yield of 10Y government bonds may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5Y national - joint - stock secondary bonds may fall below 1.9%. With the cooling of anti - involution, weak price growth, the stock market entering a volatile phase, and the possible decline in social financing growth rate, there are few negative factors for the bond market currently [11][88]. - The tax new regulations have relatively increased the scarcity of government bonds and old financial bonds, which may prompt banks' proprietary trading to scramble for government bonds and old financial bonds. The relatively low spread between newly - issued government bonds and existing bonds may temporarily push down yields. Currently, there is a phased overall bullish view on the bond market, bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, bullish on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommending perpetual bonds of Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank, and Hengfeng Bank, and paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [11][88].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, influenced by various factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, but analysts believe that there are still opportunities for bullish positions as negative sentiment dissipates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has shown signs of volatility and adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.67% on July 18 to 1.73% by July 25 [2]. - The stock market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and gaining 4.3% in July, which has diverted some funds away from the bond market [2]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to increased risk appetite and a rise in funding rates, leading to a significant sell-off in bond funds [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the recent adjustments, there are positive factors emerging, such as increased buying from insurance institutions, which reached a new high since April 2020, indicating potential support for the bond market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current bond market levels present a good value for investment, particularly in long-duration government bonds and recently adjusted perpetual bonds [6][7]. - The expectation is that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% as market risks ease, and there are notable opportunities in credit bonds, especially in municipal investment bonds and insurance subordinated debt [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" may be Supply - side Reform 2.0, potentially driving a significant rebound in PPI and impacting the bond market [2]. - The stock market is rising steadily, with a notable increase in risk appetite. This may attract funds into the stock market, putting pressure on the bond market [2]. - China's export resilience is prominent. There is a possibility of a further reduction in US tariffs on China, which could promote export growth [2]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project may boost infrastructure investment growth and drive up related stock prices [2]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution". The report recommends long - duration sinking of urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in certain capital bonds and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Macroeconomic Policy Impact - In 2015, supply - side reform and shantytown renovation promoted a significant rebound in PPI and nominal GDP growth, causing the bond market to decline. In 2025, "anti - involution" has become the focus of economic policy and may have a similar impact [2]. Stock and Bond Market Relationship - Since the Spring Festival in 2025, the stock market has been rising steadily, ending the negative economic cycle from 2022 - 2024. The wealth effect of the stock market promotes consumption, and the inflow of funds into the stock market may put pressure on the bond market [2]. Export Situation - China's total export value has grown rapidly in the past year. The resilience of exports is not only due to "rush - to - export" but also reflects the global competitiveness of many industries. A reduction in US tariffs on China could further boost exports [2]. Infrastructure Investment - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, may drive the stabilization of infrastructure investment growth and the rise of related stocks [2]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's trading volume is overly concentrated in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. If the "anti - involution" efforts are strong, it may lead to the collapse of the ultra - long - term bond concentration and a 10 - 20BP adjustment in the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield may need a new round of interest rate cuts to reach a new low. In the short term, the bond market will fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" [2].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The domestic economic recovery shows continued differentiation, with resilient consumer market recovery and ongoing growth in logistics volume [2][7] - As of July 11, the average duration of long-term government bonds has risen to approximately 5.4 years, while the average duration of credit bonds remains stable at about 2.2 years [8][9] - The report suggests a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds for Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds [9][14] Group 2: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8.3% year-on-year [11][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [12][13] - The report anticipates a slight increase in new loans for 2025, driven by government bond financing and credit [11][13] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - China Shengmu (01432.HK) - China Shengmu is the first organic raw milk brand to obtain dual certification from China and the EU, and it is the largest organic raw milk producer in China [22][23] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the high-end organic milk market as consumer demand for healthy food increases [23][24] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in profits due to the anticipated stabilization of milk and beef prices, which have previously negatively impacted the company's financial performance [23][24] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology (603005.SH) - Crystal Technology is a leading supplier of WLCSP advanced packaging, focusing on CMOS image sensor chips and expanding into new fields such as optical devices and GaN devices [25][26] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the increasing demand for automotive CIS, with a projected revenue of 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72% [25][26] - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantage with a gross margin of 43.28%, which is significantly higher than its peers [26][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices and stock prices - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years may have come to an end. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. The report expects interest rate bonds to fluctuate narrowly in Q3 2025, and is bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds. It also anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, highlighting opportunities in short - to medium - term US bonds [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Macro - level News - In June, the year - on - year CPI was +0.1%, and the month - on - month was - 0.1%. The year - on - year food price was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was - 0.4%; the year - on - year non - food price was +0.1%, and the month - on - month was flat. The转正 of CPI in June and the rebound of core CPI may indicate the initial effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand, but the recovery foundation is not yet stable [2][12]. - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to further strengthen policy support for stable employment, including seven aspects such as supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and promoting employment through skills training [2][13]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all copper imported into the United States, and different tariff conditions (20% - 50%) will be imposed on 24 countries and 27 EU member states [2][13]. 2. Medium - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 6, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 39.0% year - on - year. As of June 27, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the total retail sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year. However, the total box office revenue in the past 7 days as of July 11 decreased by 26.5% year - on - year [14][19][23]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 6, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.6% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 1.7% year - on - year. But the CCFI composite index as of July 11 decreased by 37.0% year - on - year, and the average Baltic Dry Freight Index as of July 11 decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [14][24][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 9, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.4 pct year - on - year. As of July 10, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate increased by 4.0 pct year - on - year, but the soda ash capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.3 pct year - on - year, and the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.8 pct year - on - year [15][45][47]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 11, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 11.0% year - on - year, while the total number of transactions increased by 17.1% year - on - year. The second - hand housing market also showed a downward trend, with the transaction area of 9 sample cities decreasing by 7.4% year - on - year as of July 4, and the listing price index of second - hand housing in national cities decreasing by 7.0% year - on - year as of July 6 [15][54][58]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 11, most commodity prices declined. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 27.6% year - on - year, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 17.8% year - on - year [15][68][73]. 3. Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market - On July 11, overnight Shibor, R001, R007, DR001, DR007, IBO001, and IBO007 all increased slightly compared to July 7. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds on July 11 increased by 3.4BP, 3.6BP, 2.2BP, and 2.4BP respectively compared to July 4. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on July 11 was 7.17, up 58 pips compared to July 4 [79][80][86]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 13, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.57%, down 1.40 pct from the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - breaking rate within the year was below 5%. As of July 11, the duration of bond funds continued to rise. The median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds reached 5.3 years and 5.4 years respectively, up 0.18 years from the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were 2.2 years, down 0.01 years from the previous week [89][91][92]. 5. Investment Suggestions - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in Q3 2025. The report is bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds, including urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. It strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank, and Hengfeng Bank, and suggests paying attention to opportunities in insurance sub - debt. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting opportunities in short - to medium - term US bonds [2][97].

Fixed Income - Rural financial institutions have become significant participants in the bond market, with their bond holdings potentially exceeding 13.6 trillion yuan if their investment ratio aligns with that of small and medium-sized banks [2][8][9] - As of March 2025, the asset scale of rural financial institutions reached 59.9 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend in bond investment [8] - The report suggests that the proportion of bond investments by commercial banks may continue to rise, driven by changes in the financing structure and regulatory requirements [7][9] Metals and New Materials - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to pressure copper prices, with short-term fluctuations anticipated between 77,000 and 79,000 yuan per ton [11][12] - Despite the tariff, low inventory levels and upcoming peak demand seasons are expected to provide support for copper prices [11] - The aluminum market is experiencing high price volatility, with current prices expected to range between 20,000 and 21,000 yuan per ton due to seasonal demand constraints [12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The storage industry is witnessing a significant increase in project bidding, with June 2025 seeing a record high of 62.8 GWh in public bidding capacity, a 228% increase year-on-year [17][18] - The report highlights the ongoing transition in the domestic storage industry, with expectations for supportive government policies to sustain demand [18] - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound due to the "anti-involution" plan aimed at reducing excess capacity and stabilizing demand [19] North Exchange - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange accepted 115 companies, with a median net profit of 81 million yuan, indicating a continuous supply of quality companies [20][21] - The North Exchange accounted for 65% of the total companies accepted across three exchanges, reflecting its growing popularity [20] - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the market, with recommendations to focus on stable growth companies and sectors with high dividend yields [22]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The expectation of a US interest rate cut has receded, leading to an increase in the duration of domestic bond funds, with the average duration of interest rate bonds rising to approximately 5.2 years as of July 4 [2][9] - The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds in the third quarter, maintaining a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds with yields above 2% [9] - The public wealth management product's net loss rate has decreased to about 0.86%, indicating a significant improvement in market sentiment [2][8] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials Sector - The construction sector is currently focusing on two main lines: dividend stocks and "construction+" strategies, with a favorable macro liquidity environment and low interest rates enhancing the appeal of dividend assets [10][11] - The report recommends companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, which has a robust order book and a commitment to high dividend payouts, as well as Jianghe Group, which has shown strong performance in project management and international expansion [11][13] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend is expected to drive a recovery in the cement industry's supply-demand dynamics, while the demand for high-end electronic fabrics is projected to surge due to AI advancements [19][21] Group 3: Real Estate Market Developments - In the real estate sector, new home transactions in 42 key cities totaled 3.08 million square meters, reflecting a 2.5% decrease week-on-week, while second-hand home transactions saw a 9.1% decline [15][16] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of utilizing local real estate regulation policies to promote a stable and healthy market, with various cities relaxing housing fund policies to ease purchasing burdens [17][18] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate market, suggesting that high-quality housing will see increased demand amid ongoing policy support [18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - HaiNeng Technology is expected to report a significant profit turnaround in H1 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 136 million yuan, marking a 35% year-on-year increase [24][26] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup, particularly in the chromatography and spectroscopy sectors, while also investing in automation and smart laboratory solutions [28][29] - The report highlights the company's commitment to R&D, with a sustained increase in investment over the past eight years, aiming to capture a larger share of the domestic chromatography market [27][29]