晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 9 月 25 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锰硅 | 沥青 | 豆油 | | 螺纹钢 | 玉米 | PTA | | 玻璃 | 橡胶 | 豆二 | | PVC | 玉米淀粉 | 塑料 | | 聚丙烯 | 菜粕 | 白糖 | | 沖银 | 甲醇 | 郑棉 | | 菜油 | 豆粕 | 棕榈油 | | | 沖錫 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 豆一 | | | | 沪金 | | | ...

当地时间9月24日（周三），美股三大指数收跌，标普500指数连续第二个交易日下滑。甲骨文与英伟达等AI概念股继续承压。此外，美联储青睐的PCE通 胀数据将在本周公布。 截至收盘，道指跌171.50点，跌幅为0.37%，报46121.28点；纳指跌75.61点，跌幅为0.33%，报22497.86点；标普500指数跌18.95点，跌幅为0.28%，报 6637.97点。 AI概念股继续承压 AI概念股周三继续承压，英伟达收跌0.8%，甲骨文收跌1.7%。 美光科技公司的财报一度使周三早间市场恢复了一些信心。该公司报告财报优于预期，并发布了强劲的业绩指引。人工智能（AI）热潮推动了美光科技 公司营收增长46%。 然而，在这家领先的内存芯片制造商发布业绩之前，市场情绪笼罩在对AI行业内部循环性质的加剧担忧之中，其原因主要是由英伟达与OpenAI的合作引 发。 英伟达宣布向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，该消息曾提振其股价及整个股市，但一些投资者指出，这是一笔客户与供应商之间的交易，它与互联网泡沫时期 所见的事件有相似之处。 此外，投资者也对这两家知名AI公司的增长计划是否有足够的能源支撑提出了疑问。 市场还担忧AI ...

当地时间9月24日（周三），美股三大指数收跌，标普500指数连续第二个交易日下滑。甲骨文与英伟达等AI概念股继续承压。此外，美联储青 睐的PCE通胀数据将在本周公布。 截至收盘，道指跌171.50点，跌幅为0.37%，报46121.28点；纳指跌75.61点，跌幅为0.33%，报22497.86点；标普500指数跌18.95点，跌幅为0.28%，报 6637.97点。 AI概念股继续承压 AI概念股周三继续承压，英伟达收跌0.8%，甲骨文收跌1.7%。 美光科技公司的财报一度使周三早间市场恢复了一些信心。该公司报告财报优于预期，并发布了强劲的业绩指引。人工智能（AI）热潮推动了美光科技公司 营收增长46%。 然而，在这家领先的内存芯片制造商发布业绩之前，市场情绪笼罩在对AI行业内部循环性质的加剧担忧之中，其原因主要是由英伟达与OpenAI的合作引发。 英伟达宣布向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，该消息曾提振其股价及整个股市，但一些投资者指出，这是一笔客户与供应商之间的交易，它与互联网泡沫时期所见 的事件有相似之处。 此外，投资者也对这两家知名AI公司的增长计划是否有足够的能源支撑提出了疑问。 美国总统特朗普取 ...

今日关注 1、24日，商务部等9部门印发《关于促进服务出口的若干政策措施》，包括加大出口信用保险支持力度、优化服务 出口零税率申报程序等13项具体措施，为服务出口提供全面政策支持。 2、在2025年云栖大会上，阿里巴巴宣布与英伟达开展Physical AI合作。阿里巴巴集团董事兼CEO吴泳铭表示，大 模型将是下一代的操作系统，AI Cloud是下一代计算机，阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加 更大的投入。会上，阿里云一口气发布七款大模型产品，其中Qwen3-Max是阿里迄今为止规模最大、能力最强的模 型。 宏观经济 1、今年第18号台风"桦加沙"于24日下午由超强台风级减弱为强台风级，并于17时前后在广东省阳江市海陵岛沿海 登陆。广东广州、深圳、佛山、珠海、汕尾等多地解除"五停"措施。 2、24日起，《外卖平台服务管理基本要求（征求意见稿）》正式面向社会公开征求意见，针对"幽灵外卖"、商 户"爆单"等乱象，从商户入驻、信息审核等方面提出系统要求。 3、商务部部长王文涛召开部分在美中资企业圆桌会，金融、物流、跨境电商、石化、电信、轨道交通、汽车零部 件、新能源、医药等领域的十多家在美中资企 ...

Core Insights - Innovation Qizhi Technology Group Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 699 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [1] - The company's gross profit reached 245 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and the adjusted net loss significantly narrowed to 6.68 million yuan, a reduction of 82.1% year-on-year [1] - CEO Xu Hui highlighted the company's comprehensive progress in revenue growth, gross margin improvement, and operational cash flow enhancement, marking the best performance since its establishment [1] Financial Performance - The company had 337 paid enterprise users in the first half of the year, with 281 from the manufacturing sector, accounting for 83.4% of the total [1] - Gross margin improved to a historical high of 35% over the past six years [1] - Operating cash flow was 8 million yuan, indicating a cash consumption of only 1 million yuan for every 100 million yuan in revenue [1] Management and Strategy - Xu Hui emphasized the company's strong cash position, with approximately 1 billion yuan in funds and no loans, indicating low operational risk and financial stability for the next 3-5 years [2] - Research and development investment increased by 11.2% year-on-year, with around 1,400 patent applications, over 80% of which are invention patents [2] - The company is focusing on the application of large model products in five key business scenarios: industrial software, intelligent software, industrial logistics, intelligent equipment, and industrial sustainability [2] Market Position - According to IDC reports, Innovation Qizhi has ranked among the top three in China's computer vision application market for three consecutive years, following SenseTime and Hikvision [2] - The company's market share in machine learning has also improved, rising to the third position [2]

Core Insights - The Shanghai government held a press conference to discuss the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in the Pudong New Area, focusing on creating an open, innovative, and high-quality environment [1] Industry Developments - Pudong has established a strong presence in three leading industries: integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, with a projected industry scale of 832.3 billion yuan by 2024, accounting for 46% of the city's total, and an average annual growth rate of 11.7% over the past three years [3] - The integrated circuit industry is expected to reach 294.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing 75% of the city's total and 20% of the national market, enhancing competitiveness across the entire supply chain [3] - The biomedicine sector is projected to grow to 409.9 billion yuan by 2024, making up 40% of the city's total, with a focus on innovative drugs and medical devices [4] - The artificial intelligence industry is anticipated to reach 163.7 billion yuan in 2024, also accounting for 40% of the city's total, with significant advancements in application and innovation [4] Future Outlook - Pudong will continue to prioritize the three leading industries as key areas for developing new productive forces, emphasizing the integration of technological and industrial innovation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of RMB 40.98 per share [3][11]. Core Views - The company's innovation and overseas market expansion are identified as key growth drivers, with AI expected to enhance future development. The main business faces pressure, and EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at RMB 1.46, 1.67, and 1.95 respectively [3][11]. - The company focuses on profit-driven, high-quality revenue growth, with H1 2025 revenue at RMB 41.82 billion, up 1.48% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 5.66 billion, up 11.71% YoY [12][3]. - Innovation business, including smart home and machine vision, generated RMB 11.77 billion in H1 2025, up 13.92% YoY, becoming a significant growth engine [13][3]. - The company emphasizes technology innovation and globalization, launching hundreds of AI products and achieving notable overseas revenue growth of RMB 15.43 billion, up 8.78% YoY [14][3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 89.34 billion in 2023 to RMB 117.62 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 10.3% [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 14.11 billion in 2023 to RMB 18.03 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 17.0% [2][6]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 44% over the forecast period [6][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Main business revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 but recover in subsequent years, while innovation business revenue is expected to grow significantly [6][3]. - The innovation business is anticipated to contribute RMB 273.40 billion in revenue by 2025, with a growth rate of 22% [6][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - Hikvision's financial performance shows improvement in cash flow and gross margin, indicating a marginal enhancement in fundamentals despite short-term revenue growth challenges [3][2]. - The company has embraced AI technology, integrating it into most product lines, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth from 98 billion yuan in 2025 to 115.8 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from 13.3 billion yuan to 16.8 billion yuan during the same period [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: Projected to grow from 89.34 billion yuan in 2023 to 115.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 9.5% [1]. - **Net Profit**: Expected to decline from 14.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.98 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 16.8 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 45.19% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [2]. - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow turned positive in the first half of 2025, amounting to 5.34 billion yuan, which is 94% of net profit [2]. - **EPS**: Expected to rise from 1.53 yuan in 2023 to 1.82 yuan in 2027 [1]. Business Performance - **Domestic Business**: The domestic business faces significant pressure, primarily due to a sharp decline in SMBG (Small and Medium Business Group) revenue [2]. - **Innovation Business**: Despite a slowdown, the innovation business grew by 13.92% year-on-year, contributing 28% to total revenue [2]. - **AI Integration**: The company has launched hundreds of AI model products, enhancing its competitive edge across various industries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in operational quality, with a focus on high-quality development and enhanced gross margins in its main products and services [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 41.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.657 billion yuan, up 11.71% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points [5] - In 2Q25, the company reported revenue of 23.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.45%, but a net profit of 3.619 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.5%, with a gross margin of 45.41%, up 0.89 percentage points year-on-year and 0.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company’s accounts receivable and notes receivable totaled 37.257 billion yuan at the end of 1H25, a decrease of 3.376 billion yuan from the end of 2024 and a decrease of 0.432 billion yuan from the end of 1Q25, indicating improved operational quality [5] Group 2: Domestic Business Adjustments - The domestic main business revenue was 17.821 billion yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%, but the gross margin for main products and services improved significantly to 48.52%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is optimizing its product line management and profit assessment, with SMBG revenue declining by 29.75% year-on-year, but expectations for gradual improvement in profit margins due to inventory reduction and management optimization [6] Group 3: Overseas and Innovative Business Growth - The overseas revenue in 1H25 was 12.231 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, accounting for 29% of total revenue, with strong demand from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [7] - Innovative business revenue reached 11.766 billion yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 13.92%, accounting for 28% of total revenue, driven by demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles and 3C manufacturing [7] Group 4: AI Product Development - The company has launched hundreds of AI model products in 1H25, covering various industries such as manufacturing, power, urban governance, and traffic management, achieving comprehensive application across cloud, edge, and domain [8] - The continuous promotion of AI+ products is expected to penetrate various sectors through the company's extensive sales channels and pioneer users [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company's main products and services have seen a year-on-year increase in gross margin, indicating a shift towards high-quality development. In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 41.818 billion yuan (YoY +1.48%) and a net profit of 5.657 billion yuan (YoY +11.71%) with a gross margin of 45.19% (YoY +0.35pct) [1] - Despite a decline in domestic revenue, the company has implemented a tiered management approach to product lines, resulting in a significant improvement in gross margin for its main products and services, which reached 48.52% (YoY +2.19pct) [2] - The overseas and innovative businesses continue to grow, accounting for approximately 57% of total revenue in 1H25, with overseas revenue increasing by 6.9% YoY and innovative business revenue rising by 13.92% YoY [3] - The company is expected to benefit from long-term growth driven by operational improvements and industry intelligence, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a slight increase in gross margin and a decrease in expense ratio [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a revenue of 41.818 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.657 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 45.19% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 23.286 billion yuan (YoY -0.45%) and a net profit of 3.619 billion yuan (YoY +14.94%, QoQ +77.5%) [1] - The company’s domestic main business revenue was 17.821 billion yuan in 1H25, down 8.33% YoY, but the gross margin improved significantly [2] Business Segments - The company’s overseas revenue in 1H25 was 12.231 billion yuan, up 6.9% YoY, while innovative business revenue reached 11.766 billion yuan, up 13.92% YoY [3] - The innovative business includes segments such as Hikvision Robotics and Hikvision Automotive Electronics, which have shown substantial growth [3] Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.523 billion yuan, 14.868 billion yuan, and 16.872 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.9, 18.1, and 15.9 [4][5]