Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Beer Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese beer market has entered a mature phase, with a gradual decline in per capita penetration rates and a decrease in the primary drinking population, posing challenges for total growth [1][5] - The high-end beer segment's growth has slowed due to economic cycles and policy impacts, but long-term economic recovery may drive structural upgrades in high-end consumption [1][5] Core Trends and Insights - The rise of craft beer and new retail channels are identified as key development trends starting from 2024, providing growth opportunities for both large and regional breweries [2][3] - New retail channels have accelerated channel equality, allowing mid-tier brands to utilize OEM to manage production capacity, while major brands like Heineken, Budweiser, and Tsingtao still dominate sales in these channels [2][4] - The new generation of consumers (post-90s and post-00s) emphasizes value for money and emotional value, driving demand for product innovation rather than solely focusing on high-end branding [3][6] Craft Beer Market Dynamics - The craft beer market in China is growing rapidly, with a penetration rate still lower than that of mature markets, indicating significant future growth potential [1][9] - As of 2024, craft beer sales in China are projected to increase from 40,000 tons in 2021 to 390,000 tons, with a penetration rate of approximately 1% [9] - Major players in the craft beer market include large industrial breweries, regional breweries, imported brands, and private label brands [9] Challenges Facing the Beer Industry - The industry faces challenges such as declining sales volume, a shrinking primary drinking population, and a slowdown in the high-end segment due to economic conditions and regulatory impacts [5][6] - The current market environment requires innovation in product categories and channels to find new growth opportunities [6][7] Future Directions - The focus on product innovation and the shift in drinking culture from social enjoyment to personal satisfaction will shape future strategies for breweries [6][7] - The craft beer segment is expected to thrive, with large brands leveraging their scale and brand strength to capture growth opportunities [3][12] Impact of New Retail Channels - New retail channels are reshaping the competitive landscape by increasing the share of non-traditional sales channels, but they primarily optimize existing sales methods rather than creating new consumer segments [13][14] - The sales performance of major brands in new retail channels indicates that consumer preferences still lean towards established high-end brands [14][15] Conclusion - The beer industry in China is at a crossroads, with significant opportunities in craft beer and new retail channels, but also facing challenges from market saturation and changing consumer preferences. The ability of both large and small breweries to adapt to these changes will be crucial for future success [1][12][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is showing significant structural characteristics and phase pressure, with a notable trend of concentration among leading brands. The demand side is currently impacted by external policy shocks, particularly a new round of alcohol prohibition affecting both public and private consumption scenarios. However, there is potential for policy adjustments in the future. In the medium to long term, consumption is expected to concentrate on leading brands and high-cost performance products, with resilient companies likely to gain advantages during industry adjustments. Recommendations include seeking low-position investments in leading white liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [3][12][13]. Market Performance - From July 28 to August 1, the food and beverage index fell by 2.2%, ranking 16th among 28 first-level sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), meat products (-0.0%), and dairy products (-0.6%) performed relatively better [12][14]. Upstream Data - As of July 15, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,928 per ton, up 1.8% month-on-month and 25.0% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram as of July 24, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 5.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [19][22]. Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Short-term demand pressure but focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Facing short-term demand pressure but with high mid-term growth certainty. - Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business with improving raw material costs. - Wancheng Group: Continuous expansion in the snack retail sector targeting young consumers. - Bairun Co.: Improvement trends in pre-mixed drinks and whiskey distribution [5][13].

Group 1 - Guizhou's retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 7.4% in the first half of 2025, with a total retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, the production of liquor in Lüliang City decreased by 0.8%, while the overall industrial added value grew by 3.9% [2][3] - The city of Renhuai is exploring the establishment of a "express train" for liquor delivery to enhance export trade and market promotion [4][5] Group 2 - Moutai launched a promotional event for its products, offering discounts and prizes, running from July 28 to August 3 [5] - Moutai's distributor association in Henan held a re-election meeting, emphasizing the need for transformation and technology integration to meet consumer demands [5] - Moutai Fund has invested in Leju Robotics, increasing its registered capital by approximately 19.5% [5][6] Group 3 - Qingdao Beer expects its transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase to exceed 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, driven by significant growth in key products [7] - Huazhi Youxuan focuses on a new retail model combining products and services, aiming for rapid turnover and customer engagement [7] - Fenggu Liquor is strategizing for the second half of 2025, emphasizing quality and sustainable development in its operations [8] Group 4 - A compliance notice for the production and operation of sauce-flavored liquor was issued, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the reputation of Guizhou liquor [8][9] - The National Standardization Technical Committee for Winemaking announced plans to revise standards for mountain grape wine and ice wine [10] - Shanzhuang Group's new brewing base project, with an investment of 2.34 billion yuan, is set to be operational by the end of the year, significantly increasing production capacity [10] Group 5 - Rémy Cointreau reported a 5.7% organic sales growth in the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, with a slight decline in the Chinese market [10]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer is expected to achieve over 1.5 billion yuan in transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase by 2025, making it one of the largest online sales channels for the brand [1] - In 2024, Qingdao Beer surpassed 1 billion yuan in transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase for the first time, driven by the rapid growth of key products [1] - The partnership has led to a nearly 60% year-on-year increase in sales volume for Qingdao Beer on Meituan Flash Purchase in the first half of this year [1] Group 1 - Qingdao Beer launched the "Night Owl" series of new products on Meituan Flash Purchase, marking a significant breakthrough in the industry for high-end products to quickly penetrate core urban markets [2] - The collaboration has enabled Qingdao Beer to significantly reduce the product launch cycle through flagship stores and lightning warehouses [2] - Meituan Flash Purchase is helping Qingdao Beer optimize product design and expand new product sales momentum through data insights and efficient fulfillment capabilities [2] Group 2 - Based on previous successful cooperation, both parties have decided to deepen collaboration by expanding store numbers and launching new products [5] - By 2025, the number of Qingdao Beer flagship stores on Meituan Flash Purchase is expected to exceed 1,000 [5] - Meituan Flash Purchase will continue to enhance unique services like "No Ice, No Pay" to meet the increasing demand for chilled beverages during summer and sports events [5]

Core Insights - Instant retail is experiencing rapid growth, significantly outpacing traditional retail and online sales, with a projected growth rate of over three times that of overall retail sales in China for 2024 [1][4] - The shift towards instant retail reflects changing consumer behaviors, particularly among younger demographics who prioritize immediate gratification over bulk purchasing [7][9] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me integrating fragmented supply chains to enhance service offerings and reduce costs [6][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail has shown strong growth, with a notable increase in online retail sales by 7.2% year-on-year, while instant retail is projected to grow at a rate exceeding 21% [1][4] - The market is witnessing a shift from traditional e-commerce to instant retail, which is affecting the sales of established players like JD.com and Alibaba [10][11] - The integration of local supply chains and the use of data analytics are enabling instant retail platforms to optimize inventory and reduce operational costs [6][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers, particularly those aged 35 and below, are driving the demand for instant retail, with over 70% of instant retail users falling into this age group [9][10] - The trend indicates a decline in bulk purchasing behavior, with consumers increasingly favoring immediate consumption and convenience [7][9] - Instant retail is becoming a preferred choice for various product categories, including food, beverages, and personal care items, reflecting a broader shift in consumer preferences [14][15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with major players investing heavily in subsidies to capture market share, leading to potential disruptions in pricing and service quality [13][15] - Brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of participating in instant retail to avoid missing out on market opportunities, as it represents a redistribution of existing consumer traffic [11][14] - The operational strategies of instant retail players are evolving, focusing on expanding product categories and developing private labels to enhance competitiveness [4][6]