证券研究报告·公司点评报告·商用车 江淮汽车（600418） 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45,016 | 42,202 | 55,633 | 70,493 | 81,243 | | 同比（%） | 23.07 | (6.25) | 31.82 | 26.71 | 15.25 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 151.51 | (1,784.16) | 562.07 | 1,512.00 | 3,347.25 | | 同比（%） | 109.57 | - | - | 169.00 | 121.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.07 | (0.82) | 0.26 | 0.69 | 1.53 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 756.50 | - | 203.92 | 75.80 | 34.24 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提 ...

以下文章来源于牲产队 ，作者牲产队长 牲产队 . 挣工分，磨洋工，舒服一会儿是一会儿 ---------------------------------- 作者：牲产队长 来源：牲产队 最后一家国有大车厂，被华为拿下了！它就是一汽红旗。但华为已经有五个界了，难道还要打造 第六个界吗？ 答案是并不会。那一汽红旗将与华为如何合作呢？简单地说就是， 把华为灵魂套上红旗的壳。 具体怎么操作呢？ 按红旗的说法是，搭载华为全栈自研解决方案。也就是说，华为的激光雷达、鸿蒙座舱、乾坤智 驾、途灵底盘以及麒麟芯片等，全部上车。按合作深度来讲，这基本就是第六个界了。 因为， 红旗只换华为的灵魂，不套上鸿蒙智行的躯壳 。红旗，仍旧是红旗，也永远是红旗。像 赛力斯跟华为打造了问界，上汽跟华为打造了尚界，北汽也跟华为打造了享界，还有江淮联合华 为推出的尊界，奇瑞联合华为推出的智界。五界合一，全部归属于鸿蒙智行体系了。 这种合作模式，几乎就是外包了。为什么说外包呢？就是核心技术，品牌营销以及渠道销售等， 几乎都外包给华为了。车企只要把车造好，再把售后服务做好，就够了。 华为不造车，帮助车企造好车的背后，还有一层意思，要帮车企卖好车。也就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5][29]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 2.4% from August 3 to August 9, with significant developments in the robotics sector catalyzing interest in the automotive supply chain, particularly in midstream manufacturing and automotive components [1][12]. - Key events include the launch of the world's first robot consumption festival in Beijing and the Shanghai government's plan to develop the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2027 [1][26]. - Notable vehicle launches include the successful pre-sale of the new models from the Zhijie brand, with over 10,000 orders within the first hour [1][24]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was positive, with most sub-sectors showing gains. The motorcycle and other segments saw the highest weekly increase of 9.6%, while automotive parts and services rose by 4.5% and 2.2%, respectively [2][12]. - Individual stock performance was varied, with notable gainers including Zhongma Transmission (+49.5%) and Huami New Materials (+34.0%), while Jianghuai Automobile saw a decline of 7.2% [3][14]. Recent Developments - The report highlights several key developments, including the establishment of a subsidiary in Spain by Changshu Automotive Decoration and advancements in flying car technology by XPeng [9][22]. - BYD announced a breakthrough in its fifth-generation DM technology, achieving a new low in fuel consumption of 2.6L per 100 km under NEDC conditions [25]. - The report also notes the significant investment by Zhijie in R&D, with plans to expand its team to 5,000 and introduce multiple new products [24][27].

Summary of JAC Motors Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: JAC Motors - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles and luxury cars Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Positioning**: JAC Motors' "Zun Jie" is positioned in the ultra-luxury executive sedan market, expected to benefit from the high-end trend in China's electric vehicle market, potentially capturing significant market share [2][4] 2. **Partnership with Huawei**: The Zun Jie S800 features an L3 autonomous driving system, showcasing advanced technology and receiving positive market feedback with sales surpassing 10,000 units shortly after launch [2][16] 3. **Consumer Trends**: High-net-worth individuals are increasingly seeking a balance between price and technology, with Zun Jie attracting consumers through its high-tech features and comfort [2][17] 4. **Commercial Vehicle Stability**: JAC's commercial vehicle business remains stable, with room for market share growth domestically and rapid growth in export operations [2][11] 5. **Sales Projections**: Expected sales for the Zun Jie brand could reach 69,000 units by 2026, with an average selling price (ASP) of 720,000, leading to a net profit of 4.5 billion [2][6] 6. **Valuation Methods**: Traditional business valuation using the Price-to-Book (PB) method suggests a market value of 25 billion, while the overall valuation, including the Zun Jie brand, could reach 160 billion [2][6][22] 7. **Catalysts for Growth**: Upcoming events, such as mass deliveries in mid-August, are anticipated to demonstrate production capacity improvements, despite potential short-term delivery bottlenecks [3][5] 8. **Competitive Landscape**: Zun Jie competes in a market with limited direct competitors in the electric luxury segment, primarily facing competition from traditional fuel luxury vehicles [19] 9. **Future Models**: Plans to introduce additional models, including those priced above 1 million and MPVs or C-class sedans priced over 600,000, to cater to diverse consumer needs [18][20] 10. **Financial Performance**: The company has experienced revenue fluctuations, with a significant loss in 2024 due to a one-time asset impairment and poor sales of the "Yuzong 06" model, but expects to reduce losses with new model launches [8][9][10] Additional Important Content 1. **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include a slowdown in electric vehicle penetration, increased market competition, lower-than-expected acceptance of new models, and deviations in profit forecasts and valuation methods [23] 2. **Historical Context**: JAC Motors has a long history since its establishment in 1964, with strategic partnerships with major tech companies like Huawei and Volkswagen, enhancing its international presence [7] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The luxury car market is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences towards high-tech, cost-effective domestic electric vehicles, which Zun Jie aims to capitalize on [17][20] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting JAC Motors' strategic positioning, market dynamics, financial outlook, and potential risks.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The adjustment of the ultra-luxury vehicle consumption tax aims to promote rational consumption and optimize the tax structure, with the threshold lowered from Rmb1.3 million to Rmb900,000, affecting both new energy vehicles (NEVs) and traditional luxury vehicles [1][9]. - The new tax policy is expected to significantly increase the purchase cost of ultra-luxury vehicles, dampening demand in the Rmb900,000–1.3 million price range, which accounted for only about 20,000 units sold in the first half of 2025 [2][10]. - Domestic NEV brands are presented with a historical opportunity to capture market share in the high-end segment, while imported brands like Porsche face significant challenges due to their reliance on models priced within the affected range [3][12]. Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The consumption tax for ultra-luxury vehicles has been adjusted to include a 10% tax at the retail stage, while NEVs remain exempt from production-stage taxes, leading to a lower overall tax burden for NEVs compared to traditional fuel vehicles [2][11]. - Second-hand ultra-luxury vehicles are exempt from the consumption tax, which may stimulate the used car market and encourage consumers to opt for these vehicles to avoid new tax burdens [2][11]. Market Impact - The new tax policy is expected to further squeeze the market share of high-end imported brands, particularly Porsche, which saw a 49% year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025 [3][12]. - Traditional luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW are also anticipated to face pressure, with the pricing center for high-end NEVs expected to shift towards the Rmb500,000–600,000 range [3][12]. Strategic Adjustments - Imported brands must quickly adapt their strategies, either by reducing prices below Rmb900,000 or enhancing vehicle configurations to maintain competitiveness [4][13]. - Domestic brands, benefiting from tax exemptions, have more flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing them to mitigate the impact of the new tax policy through adjustments in vehicle configurations [4][14]. Fiscal Implications - The expansion of the tax base is projected to increase consumption tax revenue, helping to offset declines in ultra-luxury vehicle sales, with consumption tax revenue in the first five months of 2025 totaling Rmb772.9 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year [5][16]. - The policy encourages automakers to focus on the mid- to low-end NEV market, aligning with the trend of rising NEV price ceilings and discouraging blind expansion into the ultra-premium segment [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 3.2% from July 13 to July 19, with notable new vehicle announcements from companies like Huawei and Tesla [1][2]. - The adjustment of the consumption tax for ultra-luxury vehicles is expected to significantly impact the market, lowering the tax threshold from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan [27][28]. - Key companies recommended for investment include BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile, with a focus on those with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles [7][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance was highlighted by a 3.2% increase, with the commercial vehicle segment showing the most significant weekly rise of 6.0% [2][11]. - Individual stocks within the automotive sector saw substantial gains, with Shanghai Wumart rising by 40.1%, followed by Fosa Technology at 31.2% and Zhejiang Rongtai at 28.0% [15][18]. Recent Industry Developments - New vehicle launches include Huawei's first travel car, the Enjoy S9T, and Tesla's Model Y L, both expected to hit the market in the fall [23][24]. - The report notes that the Zun Jie S800 has achieved over 8,000 pre-orders within 50 days of its launch, indicating strong market interest [25][26]. - Geely has signed a merger agreement with Zeekr Technology, further consolidating its position in the market [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost and product advantages in the auto parts sector, recommending firms like Fuyao Glass and Top Group [7][28]. - It also highlights the importance of low-altitude economy-related core targets, recommending Zongshen Power [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and strong alpha companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning between the third and fourth consumption eras, with a notable expansion in mid-to-large SUVs and personalized products, indicating untapped consumer potential [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply to stimulate market demand, highlighting products like Yu7, Zun Jie S800, and upcoming models from Li Auto as key drivers [4]. - The report suggests continued attention to strong alpha manufacturers such as Li Auto, JAC, Xiaomi, and Seres, as well as their corresponding supply chain companies [4]. Industry Update - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 570,000 units in the 26th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.38%. Traditional energy vehicles sold approximately 274,000 units, down 7.43%, while new energy vehicles sold 296,000 units, up 4.96%, achieving a penetration rate of 51.93% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a total transaction value of 425.645 billion yuan this week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.01% [4]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that 123 automotive stocks rose while 159 fell this week, with the largest gainers being TaoTao Automotive, Hunan Tianyan, and Zhengyu Industrial, which saw increases of 29.8%, 21.0%, and 18.3%, respectively [15]. - Key events include the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, which exceeded pricing expectations and features advanced autonomous driving capabilities, and the opening of BYD's factory in Brazil, enhancing its presence in the Latin American market [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in the trend of smart technology, including Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC Motor, and identifying component manufacturers with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4]. Key Events - Xiaopeng G7 was launched with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a significant increase in autonomous driving performance [5][41]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil aims for an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, with plans to expand to 300,000 units, marking a significant step in its global strategy [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% from June 29 to July 5, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers reporting significant sales growth [1][22]. - Notable performances include Leap Motor's delivery of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 138%, and Xiaopeng Motors' delivery of 35,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 224% [22]. - Changan Automobile plans to establish a factory in Europe to support its sales strategy, aiming to expand into at least 10 European markets by the end of 2025 [27]. - BYD launched its flagship luxury MPV, the M9, in Mexico, marking a significant step in its high-end new energy market strategy [23]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's overall market performance was positive, with secondary segments like motorcycles and commercial vehicles showing notable increases of 5.1% and 1.5%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights that the automotive industry has a total of 259 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,051.4 billion [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Leap Motor's June deliveries reached 48,000 units, while Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 53,000 units, and the Wanjie brand delivered 45,000 units [22]. - The report emphasizes the strong sales potential of models like the Changan S800, which achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month [23]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [8]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Xiaopeng G7, a new AI smart family SUV, was launched with a price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [26]. - The report also notes the upcoming launches of new models from various manufacturers, including the i8 from Ideal Motors and the B01 from Leap Motor [21].

Summary of JAC Motors Conference Call Company Overview - JAC Motors is collaborating with Huawei to establish a domestic brand presence in the ultra-luxury car market (priced above 600,000 RMB), which, although small, has high profit margins and a low breakeven point [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - The launch of the Zun Jie S800 from May 30, 2025, to June 30, 2025, has seen over 6,500 pre-orders, exceeding expectations. The model is priced around 1 million RMB, with a high proportion of high-end versions, indicating strong potential in the premium market [2][5]. - The Zun Jie brand plans to introduce high-end MPVs and SUVs, expected to fill the gap in China's high-end MPV market, catering to both family and business needs. These models are anticipated to launch by the end of 2025 or early 2026, driving sales and profit growth [2][6]. - JAC Motors has established a research and development center in Shanghai with a team of 5,000 and is building a super factory in Feixi. This facility will integrate deeply with Huawei's supply chain, utilizing core components from Huawei to ensure high quality for the Zun Jie brand [2][8]. - In terms of sales and service, JAC Motors aims to benchmark against ultra-luxury brands like Maybach, forming a specialized team to enhance brand image and service quality [2][8]. - JAC Motors is achieving profitability through collaborations with companies like Volkswagen and export operations. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 540 million, 803.7 million, and 1.606 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 169, 89, and 57 [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - As the Zun Jie brand contributes profits, JAC Motors' overall valuation is expected to be realized, leading to improved overall performance and sustainable growth [3]. - The Zun Jie S800's high order volume and pricing strategy are crucial for brand elevation and sales growth in the luxury segment [4][5]. - The super factory's capacity is projected to reach between 200,000 to 300,000 vehicles, providing ample support for future model production [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH) [6] Core Views - Jianghuai Automobile is focusing on the ultra-luxury vehicle market, with the launch of the "Zun Jie" series achieving strong initial sales [3][19] - The company has successfully captured overseas market trends, with overseas revenue surpassing domestic revenue in recent years [2][32] - The partnership with Huawei is expected to enhance the company's traditional business and drive future growth [2][68] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jianghuai Automobile, established in 1964, is a significant asset of Anhui State-owned Assets, involved in the production of a full range of commercial vehicles, passenger cars, and core components [13][16] - The company has entered the passenger car market since 2008 and the new energy sector since 2015, collaborating with major players like Volkswagen and NIO [13][19] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 421.16 billion yuan for 2024, with a first-quarter revenue of 98.01 billion yuan for 2025 [1][23] - The forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 490.57 billion, 691.72 billion, and 802.98 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.35 billion, 17.51 billion, and 36.22 billion yuan [3][5] Business Segments - The traditional business is divided into commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, buses, and chassis, with commercial and passenger vehicles contributing the majority of revenue [32] - The commercial vehicle segment is recovering, with a focus on light trucks and expansion into overseas markets [2][41] - The passenger vehicle segment has seen a decline in revenue but an increase in per-unit revenue due to product structure optimization and international market expansion [55][62] Strategic Initiatives - The ultra-luxury vehicle market is identified as a blue ocean for domestic brands, with the "Zun Jie" series positioned to compete effectively [3][73] - The first model of the "Zun Jie" series, S800, is set to launch in May 2025, with strong pre-orders exceeding 6,500 units in the first month [3][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its strategic partnership with Huawei, enhancing its capabilities in smart vehicle solutions and digital transformation [68][72] - The report estimates a reasonable market valuation range for the company in 2026 to be between 106.1 billion and 121.3 billion yuan [3]