以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 一个你可能不太相信的事实 ： 过去20年，沪深300和标普500的年化收益率差不多，都在8%-9%左右。 但投资者的感受却截然不同——似乎在美股赚钱更容易？ 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 为什么会有这种感受呢。 因为美股的走势相对平稳，虽有熊市，但通常短暂，长期缓慢上行， 对择时要求不高。 而A股波动大，收益集中在短期爆发，大部分时间则是震荡或阴跌。 20年里，沪深300的三轮大牛市都是在短期内快速冲高，随后进入漫长的回调。 大涨的时间，大约占全部交易日的7%，收益分布极为不均。 也就是说，如果闪电牛劈下来的时候我们不在场，那相当于这一年白干。 所以，A股不择时，确实很难赚到钱。 但择时本身，是一种很难的操作。 因为： 1、市场的短期波动是无法预测的 像2020年疫情导致美股断崖式暴跌，随后又因美联储大力刺激而V型反弹。 突发事件、情绪、政策都可能突然改变走势，普通人根本无法预判。 2、择时是反人性的 想做好择时，那就必须敢在跌得最狠时买，涨得最猛时卖，这对心态是极大的考验。 3、 我们 ...

Group 1 - The recent trend of growth-style funds suddenly distributing dividends raises concerns about underlying motivations, suggesting a potential market peak [1][2] - Major fund companies like E Fund and Wanji have not distributed dividends for several years, making the recent actions appear suspicious, reminiscent of previous market peaks [2][3] - Growth funds typically rely on capital gains from selling stocks for dividends, indicating a strategy to convert unrealized gains into realized profits [3] Group 2 - The characteristics of successful stocks include high demand and the necessity of "washing" out speculative investors before price increases [3][5] - The current market environment is characterized by rapid shifts in hot stocks, with algorithmic trading causing swift price movements across sectors [5][7] - The presence of significant capital movements before stock price increases is a common indicator of potential bull stocks, which may not be easily recognizable to average investors [7] Group 3 - The collective dividend distribution by funds suggests that smart money is adjusting positions, indicating a proactive strategy rather than a reactive one [7][8] - Investors are advised to be cautious of fund names that may mislead, as "growth" may not reflect actual performance [8] - Monitoring capital movements is deemed more critical than traditional technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of using quantitative tools to identify market trends [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares, highlighting the rotation between growth and value styles, with value stocks currently showing strength and returning to normal valuations after a period of underperformance [4][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market experienced a slight decline, with the CSI All Share Index down by 0.44% [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks showed slight gains, while small-cap stocks fell by over 1% [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw minor fluctuations, closing with little overall change [7]. Group 2: Style Rotation - A-shares exhibit characteristics of rotation between growth and value styles, with growth stocks significantly outperforming value stocks from 2020 to 2021, while the opposite trend has been observed from 2022 to 2024 [8][9]. - In the first three quarters of this year, growth stocks surged, while value stocks showed only modest gains [10]. - After the National Day holiday, growth stocks began to decline while value stocks started to rise [13]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The 300 Value Index has returned to normal valuation levels, with some dividend and free cash flow stocks still undervalued but approaching normal valuations [14]. - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, indicating their current earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other metrics [40]. Group 4: Long-term Performance - Value style funds have demonstrated a slow bull market trend over the years, with significant cumulative gains since 2019, outperforming many global indices [15][17][19]. - The article notes that both growth and value styles have shown long-term upward trends, but their volatility and return characteristics differ significantly [25][28]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of considering both growth and value styles when they are undervalued, suggesting that investors can benefit from holding either style over the long term [38][39]. - It highlights that value style investments are generally easier to manage, with lower volatility and consistent returns, while growth style investments require more precise timing for entry and exit [31][33][34].

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline of 1% during the day but rebounded significantly before closing, with the CSI All Share Index rising by 1.5% [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks saw an increase, although small-cap stocks rose less [2][3] - Recently, the ChiNext and STAR Market have been strong, attracting funds, which led to a decline in small-cap stocks [5] Growth vs. Value Styles - Growth styles have been strong, while value styles have been relatively weak [6] - Dividend and value indices saw slight increases, indicating some resilience in value stocks [7] - The A-share market has shown a pattern of style rotation, with growth styles outperforming value styles in certain years [21][32] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market continued to decline, particularly in technology stocks, while dividend and value styles remained stable [8][10] - Since the Chinese New Year, the Hong Kong market has experienced a stronger rally compared to A-shares, with technology stocks in Hong Kong outperforming A-share technology stocks by 20-30% at one point [11] - A-shares have recently shown a catch-up rally, while the Hong Kong market remains relatively subdued [12] Bond Market Insights - The bond market has been weak, with long-term pure bonds experiencing significant declines [15][16] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is currently around 1.7-1.8%, which is not considered attractive compared to historical averages [17][18] - Fixed income plus products, which include some equity exposure, have remained stable this year [19] Historical Performance of Growth and Value Styles - Historical data shows that from 2020 to 2025, the performance of dividend low-volatility and ChiNext indices has varied significantly, with growth styles outperforming in some years and value styles in others [24][28][30] - The average return of dividend low-volatility stocks since early 2020 is approximately 68%, while the ChiNext has returned around 62% [30][31] - The rotation of styles typically occurs every 3-5 years, with recent years favoring value styles [34][37] Investment Strategies - The company suggests a balanced approach to investing in both growth and value styles, adjusting the allocation based on valuation levels [65][66] - Growth styles are likened to offensive strategies, while value styles are seen as defensive, requiring different management approaches [66][67] - The company emphasizes the importance of patience and understanding market cycles for long-term investment success [56][76]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed slightly higher, with minimal volatility, approaching a 4.9 star rating [1] - The CSI 300 index slightly declined, while small and mid-cap stocks experienced a slight increase. Value indices fell slightly, and growth styles rose, with the pharmaceutical sector showing strength [2] - Hong Kong stocks declined today, but the dividend stocks remained relatively stable with low volatility [3][4] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw a significant pullback, yet it has not returned to undervalued levels, currently sitting at a normal low valuation [5] Dividend Stocks Performance - Recently, dividend-related stocks have been gradually rising, with Hong Kong dividend stocks returning to normal valuations. The low volatility dividend stocks in the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen market are also close to normal valuations [6] - Concerns have been raised about whether dividend stocks, which performed well in recent years, might face a period of underperformance. Any investment strategy can have its strong and weak phases [7] Historical Performance of Dividend Stocks - From the valuation updates, dividend stocks have experienced two cycles of outperforming and underperforming the market [8] - In 2014-2015, dividend stocks underperformed the market during a bull market dominated by small and mid-cap stocks and the ChiNext index [9][10][11] - The period from 2016 to 2018 saw dividend stocks outperform the market as large-cap stocks rebounded while small-cap stocks fell from their bubble [18] - From 2019 to 2021, dividend stocks again underperformed during a growth style bull market, while from 2022 to 2024, they are expected to outperform due to lower valuations [13][20][22] Factors Affecting Dividend Stocks - A significant increase in interest rates could lead to a period of underperformance for dividend stocks. The past decade has seen a decline in interest rates in China, while the U.S. has experienced substantial rate hikes [24][25] - The potential for underperformance in dividend stocks may arise from strong performance in small-cap or growth styles, or from rising interest rates, which could make dividend yields less attractive [26] Long-term Effectiveness of Dividend Strategies - Dividend strategies have been effective in the A-share market over the long term, but not consistently. Periods of underperformance can provide a foundation for long-term effectiveness [27] - During periods of underperformance, many investors may abandon the strategy, which helps maintain its effectiveness [28] - Future phases of underperformance for dividend strategies are possible, but investing in undervalued areas can provide some protection [30] Valuation Tables and Investment Strategies - Various indices and their respective metrics, such as earnings yield, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and dividend yield, are provided for reference [33][34][35][36] - The document includes a list of funds tracking these indices, detailing their scale and average dividend distribution [38] - Different investment strategies, including value, low volatility, growth, and quality, have their own phases of performance, with value strategies potentially stabilizing overall performance when paired with undervalued growth strategies [41][42]

Market Insights - The domestic economy shows signs of stabilization and improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 in February from 49.1 in January, indicating a return to the expansion zone [1] - The increase in manufacturing sentiment is attributed to improvements in production index, new orders index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index [1] - In January, the CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.3%, reflecting stable price movements in food and service sectors [1] AI Industry Focus - The AI industry, represented by Deepseek and humanoid robots, gained significant market attention in February, bolstered by a government meeting emphasizing support for the private sector [2] - Major stock indices saw increases in February, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.16% and 4.48%, respectively [2] - The computer, machinery, automotive, and electronics sectors experienced gains exceeding 8%, driven by advancements in AI technology and domestic replacements in smart automotive components [2] Bond Market Adjustments - The bond market faced adjustments in February, with a tightening of liquidity due to a significant net withdrawal of 10,773 billion yuan by the central bank [3] - The yields on government bonds increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 16, 19, and 9 basis points to 1.46%, 1.60%, and 1.72%, respectively [3] - The overall return of the bond market, as reflected by the China Bond Index, decreased by 0.83% in February [3] Global Economic Performance - The U.S. Markit Composite PMI recorded 51.6 in February, down from 52.7 in January, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 47.6 from 46.6 [4] - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed results, with the DAX, CAC40, FTSE 100, and Hang Seng indices rising by 3.77%, 2.03%, 1.57%, and 13.43%, respectively [5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.47% in February, while gold prices increased by 2.13%, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [5] Fund Performance Overview - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a 2.77% increase in February, with stock and allocation funds rising by 4.48% and 1.65%, respectively [6] - Growth-style funds outperformed value and balanced funds, with mid-cap growth funds achieving an average return of 8.10% [10] - Convertible bond funds led fixed-income categories with a 2.78% average return, while credit bond and pure bond funds faced declines [11]