证券研究报告 千亿市场空间，设备+运营双重受益 —无人车系列专题报告1：无人环卫车 西部证券研发中心 2025年8月22日 分析师 |王昊哲 S0800525080003 邮箱地址：wanghaozhe@xbmail.com.cn 分析师 |张恒晅 S0800525020001 邮箱地址：zhanghengxuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 郭义俊 邮箱地址：guoyijun09660@xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 设备+运营构筑核心壁垒，测算无人环卫对项目利润弹性可达172% 投资建议 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 3 • 我国城市道路清扫保洁面积以及环卫行业市场规模稳步提升，我们认为环卫行业属于刚性支出，但受宏观影响近年政府回款履约进度有些拖累， 环卫领域上市公司的应收账款周转率处于历史低点。我们认为，随着无人环卫走过0-1阶段进入量产，智慧环卫类专项资金以及化债等政策的逐 步落地，环卫领域企业回款有望迎来修复拐点。 • 不止于设备销售，自营项目无人渗透加速释放利润弹性。无人环卫持续强化行业的核心竞争壁垒，环卫服务的本质仍是对人力和车辆资源的精细 化管 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the unmanned sanitation vehicle sector addresses the aging workforce and rising labor costs in the sanitation industry [4] - The total bidding amount for unmanned sanitation projects in the first half of 2025 has already exceeded the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a market potential reaching hundreds of billions [5][34] - The report estimates that the market space for unmanned sanitation vehicles could reach up to 1 trillion yuan, with various scenarios predicting market sizes of 1164 billion, 1746 billion, and 2910 billion yuan based on different labor replacement ratios [10][39] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The unmanned sanitation vehicle is a key segment in the low-speed unmanned vehicle market, primarily focusing on cleaning public spaces using advanced sensors and algorithms [10] - In 2024, the sales scale of the low-speed unmanned driving industry in China is projected to be approximately 12.3 billion yuan, with the unmanned cleaning market holding the largest share [10] Economic Analysis - The report calculates significant cost savings from using unmanned sanitation vehicles, estimating a reduction of 25% to 66% in labor costs depending on the vehicle's cost and the number of workers replaced [30][32] Industry Trends - The report notes a rapid increase in the number of projects awarded in the unmanned sanitation sector, with 70 billion yuan in contracts awarded in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [34] - The technology reliability of unmanned sanitation equipment has been validated, with vehicles designed to operate safely and efficiently in various environments [34] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by collaboration between technology companies and sanitation service providers, with a focus on integrating unmanned vehicles into operational scenarios to enhance profitability [46] - The report identifies key players in the market, including companies like Jinjun Environment, Yuhua Tian, and Fulongma, which are actively developing and deploying unmanned sanitation solutions [55][66][74] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as the unmanned sanitation sector transitions from the initial phase to mass production, companies in this field are expected to experience significant growth in both equipment sales and operational profitability [82]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Autonomous Sanitation Vehicle Industry Industry Overview - The autonomous sanitation vehicle industry has high entry barriers due to operational models, technological accumulation, and legal regulations, making it difficult for external companies to enter directly and necessitating deep vertical expertise and government approvals [1][3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The cost of autonomous driving technology has significantly decreased, with initial R&D costs dropping from approximately 800,000 to 1,000,000 yuan to around 200,000 yuan, with further reductions expected, facilitating market application [1][4] - The expected shipment volume for the autonomous commercial cleaning sector in 2024 is about 13,000 units, with a sales scale of approximately 2.7 billion yuan, projected to grow to 47,000 units and a market size of 18.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing over 50% year-on-year growth [1][5] - The sanitation sector heavily relies on government fiscal spending, with environmental protection project funds allocated for sanitation, and urbanization increasing the area requiring cleaning, indicating potential for budget increases [1][8] - The number of bids and transaction amounts for autonomous sanitation projects surged in the first half of 2025, indicating rapid market demand release, with total contract amounts increasing over tenfold year-on-year [1][10] Market Dynamics - Autonomous sanitation vehicles can replace some manual labor, addressing issues of aging sanitation workers and recruitment difficulties, with a calculated market size of over 80 billion yuan based on a 3:1 replacement ratio [1][12] - The market space for autonomous sanitation vehicles is estimated between 75 billion to 120 billion yuan, considering the annual increase of 80,000 to 100,000 vehicles on main roads and additional demand from non-motorized lanes, sidewalks, parks, and waste transfer scenarios [1][11] Competitive Landscape - Key players in the autonomous sanitation vehicle sector include Jinlv Environment, Yuhua Tian, Qiaoyin Co., Xin'an Clean, Yingfeng Environment, and Fulongma, with Jinlv Environment noted for its strong R&D capabilities and potential for growth [2][14] - The operational model in China primarily involves government outsourcing sanitation services to small enterprises or state-owned enterprises, with over 90% of sanitation services provided through outsourcing [9] Future Prospects - The partnership between Yuhua Tian and Zhiyuan Robotics indicates recognition of the autonomous sanitation sector, with a focus on applying advanced robotics technology in this field [15][16] - The future market for autonomous sanitation vehicles is expected to reach a scale of over 100 billion yuan annually, with significant potential for margin improvement, making it a favorable outlook for related companies [18] Additional Considerations - The aging workforce in the sanitation sector poses challenges, with 65% of workers over 50 years old, and 22% over 60 years old, highlighting the need for technological solutions to mitigate labor shortages [12] - The economic advantages of autonomous sanitation vehicles are evident, with lifecycle costs significantly lower than traditional labor costs, suggesting a strong case for investment in this technology [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the autonomous sanitation vehicle industry, highlighting its potential for growth, competitive dynamics, and the implications for labor and economic efficiency.

Core Insights - The Jinan Start-up Zone is advancing the integration of smart cities and intelligent connected vehicles through a pilot project focused on "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Start-up Zone aims to open a fully intelligent road network in the Daqiao and Cuizhai areas by the end of the year, leveraging its new infrastructure and low traffic density for autonomous driving tests [1] - The project is supported by a comprehensive implementation plan that outlines 28 tasks across seven key areas, addressing challenges related to functional autonomous vehicles [1][2] Group 2: Technological Developments - A "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" intelligent platform has been established for real-time monitoring and millisecond-level data interaction of test vehicles, enhancing traffic management and law enforcement [2] - The introduction of a "L0 to L3 Intelligent Intersection" system allows for the deployment of roadside equipment as needed, facilitating the development of an autonomous driving test environment [2] Group 3: Application Scenarios - The Start-up Zone is launching the first L4 level intelligent connected bus line in the city, enabling features such as traffic signal recognition and autonomous overtaking, with safety drivers onboard [2] - Twelve unmanned logistics vehicles have received licenses for testing operations, aiming to reduce last-mile delivery costs by over 30% and achieve "hourly delivery" for logistics services [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is rapidly growing, with sales expected to exceed 50,000 units by 2025. The annualized total transaction amount in the sanitation sector reached nearly 3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a total contract amount of approximately 7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 10 times, indicating strong market demand [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Developments**: Local policies have been intensively introduced, particularly in regions like Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Guangdong, which are home to leading sanitation companies. Shanghai has also issued road licenses, enhancing policy openness. The push from first-tier cities is driving the development of pilot projects in second and third-tier cities, accelerating the commercialization of unmanned sanitation vehicles [2][3]. - **Economic Benefits**: The commercial path for unmanned sanitation vehicles is becoming clearer, with projects increasing year by year. The company plans to launch multiple classic projects in the second half of the year, with rapid increases in deployment volume, including projects with over 100 units planned. The company has two to three years of scenario validation experience, which has resolved stability issues [2][4]. - **Comparison with Unmanned Logistics Vehicles**: Unmanned sanitation vehicles require chassis modifications to meet cleaning needs and are equipped with a remote control system, making them more powerful and safer, with operational speeds of 5-8 km/h compared to 30-40 km/h for unmanned logistics vehicles. This safety aspect makes them more appealing to governments and property owners [5][6]. - **Government Demand**: The demand for unmanned sanitation vehicles from the government is driven not only by cost savings but also by addressing issues such as worker aging, rising employment costs, and safety incident liabilities. The trend towards automation or mechanization is seen as essential for improving efficiency and reducing costs [7][9]. Additional Important Content - **Market Size and Future Projections**: The market for marketized sanitation service projects is estimated at 300 to 400 billion yuan, with public bidding making up the majority. The company aims to replace one-third of urban sanitation workers, which translates to a significant market potential, with annual demand for new equipment expected to be around 80,000 to 100,000 units [16][32]. - **Operational Areas**: The company currently operates projects in Hefei, including New District, High-tech Zone, and Economic Development Zone, and plans to expand to Jiangsu and southwestern regions in the future [13]. - **Product Development**: The company plans to release a sanitation robot in the first quarter of 2026, utilizing a wheeled design to reduce costs and promote a combined sales model of unmanned street sweepers and sanitation robots to enhance overall operational efficiency [3][31]. - **Cost Reduction Strategies**: The company has successfully reduced the hardware costs of its third-generation intelligent driving system by 20% to 50% through collaboration with the logistics vehicle industry, optimizing components and adjusting battery capacities [3][22]. - **Challenges and Future Directions**: The unmanned vehicle technology faces challenges in large-scale application and labor replacement. The company is developing a third-generation intelligent driving system that does not rely on high-definition maps, aiming to improve deployment efficiency and reduce costs [20][21]. - **Management Background**: The founders of the company have backgrounds in hardware equipment, which has significantly contributed to the company's technological development. The current management also has experience in environmental service operations [36]. - **Contract and Profitability Outlook**: The company expects a slight increase in gross margin for its operational services in 2025, driven by low-cost operations and project asset inputs, although overall profit growth may slow due to increased R&D investments [35][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic direction of the unmanned sanitation vehicle industry and the company's role within it.

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - Urban renewal is expected to become a key direction, with a focus on engineering machinery, pipeline, and sanitation equipment. The State Council has issued a five-year action plan emphasizing livable, resilient, and smart cities, which will drive demand for engineering machinery, pipeline equipment, sanitation equipment, and fire-fighting equipment [3][23] - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is vast, with global potential exceeding 200 billion. Based on third-party data, with over 2 million official sanitation workers in China, the annual demand for new vehicles is approximately 130,000, corresponding to a market size of 26 billion. Considering maintenance and replacement needs, the domestic market is estimated to be around 50 billion annually, with global demand potentially exceeding 250 billion [4][23] - The overall economic resilience in the first half of 2025 is strong, with GDP growth rates of 3.7% for the primary industry, 5.3% for the secondary industry, and 5.5% for the tertiary industry. Industrial production has seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in industrial value added [24][29] Summary by Sections Mechanical Equipment Market Performance - The mechanical equipment sector rose by 2.91% this week, ranking 4th among the Shenwan industry classifications. The overall performance of the Shenwan mechanical sub-industries was positive, with significant gains in printing and packaging machinery, engineering machinery components, metal products, and other automation equipment [3][15] General Automation Tracking - The report highlights the strong economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with stable production demand growth. The industrial production growth rate of 6.4% and manufacturing growth of 7.0% are expected to gradually lead the machine tool industry towards recovery [24][29] - The market sentiment has improved, with a focus on opportunities in robot mass production. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the potential cancellation of tariffs are expected to enhance market sentiment [25][29] Humanoid Robot Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core companies in the humanoid robot sector, particularly those involved in key components such as reducers, lead screws, dexterous hands, motors, and sensors. The report suggests that the market for humanoid robots is still in a relatively low position, presenting opportunities for investment [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic environmental sanitation intelligent equipment sector, actively expanding into the unmanned sanitation vehicle market [1][3]. - The company has established a "device + operation" business layout, focusing on both manufacturing and investment operation management services in the environmental sanitation field [1]. - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with operating services being the main driving force [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 1.539 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 141 million yuan, up 8.76% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 94 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 41.98% [2]. - The revenue from the concession business is anticipated to reach 813 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 24.59% [2]. - The traditional urban and rural sanitation business is expected to generate 632 million yuan in revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.86% with a gross margin of 29.98% [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 1.675 billion yuan, 1.840 billion yuan, and 2.040 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 175 million yuan, 205 million yuan, and 230 million yuan [3][10]. - The report forecasts a PE ratio of 16.31x, 13.92x, and 12.40x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on research and development in new energy and unmanned technology, with a planned R&D investment of 25 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 1.62% of its operating revenue [3]. - The domestic unmanned sanitation vehicle market is still in its early stages, with the company’s products ranging from small vehicles suitable for sidewalks to larger vehicles for non-motorized roads and parks [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **autonomous vehicle industry**, particularly in logistics, mining, military, and agriculture sectors [1][3][4][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth in Autonomous Forklifts**: In China, companies have seen order growth rates of **50% to 100%** for autonomous forklifts, enhancing warehouse space utilization and operational efficiency [1][3]. - **Robotaxi Development**: Multiple companies plan to mass-produce Robotaxis by **2025**, with Tesla already launching its RoboTaxi service in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of autonomous taxis [1][3]. - **Mining Sector Innovations**: XCMG has delivered **100 electric autonomous mining trucks**, marking the first large-scale delivery of such vehicles globally. Other companies like SANY and Zoomlion are also investing in autonomous mining machinery [1][3]. - **Military Applications**: Autonomous combat platforms are emerging, showcasing new collective combat paradigms, with innovations like "mechanical wolf packs" being presented at military exhibitions [1][4]. - **Market Size Projections**: The global warehouse automation solutions market is projected to grow from approximately **471.1 billion RMB** in **2024** to **804 billion RMB** by **2029**, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about **11%** [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **AMR vs. AGV**: Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) are expected to outperform Automated Guided Vehicles (AGV) in flexibility and intelligence, with the global AMR solutions market projected to reach **162.1 billion RMB** by **2029**, growing at a CAGR of **33%** [2][12]. - **Automation Adoption in Warehouses**: Approximately **80%** of the **180,000** warehouses globally have not yet adopted automation solutions, indicating significant growth potential for autonomous forklifts and other automated solutions [9][10]. - **Industry Chain of Autonomous Forklifts**: The industry chain includes upstream components like sensors and hardware, midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications in material handling and warehousing [6]. - **Traditional Forklift Applications**: In China, traditional forklifts are primarily used in manufacturing (52%) and logistics (16%) [7]. Conclusion - The autonomous vehicle industry is poised for rapid growth across various sectors, driven by technological advancements and increasing market demand. The significant potential for automation in warehouses and the military, along with the development of AMR technology, highlights the evolving landscape of this industry.

Group 1 - The market is shifting focus from "water" concepts to "vehicle" concepts, with significant gains in the autonomous vehicle sector, particularly in unmanned logistics and sanitation vehicles [1][2] - Companies like Yuhua Tian and Bosch Tech saw stock increases of over 19% and 20% respectively, with several other stocks hitting their daily limit [1][2] - The application of unmanned logistics vehicles is expanding from closed environments to open urban distribution scenarios, with the market expected to exceed 100 billion yuan [1][4] Group 2 - The automotive supply chain is experiencing a surge, with autonomous vehicle stocks leading the gains, including Robovan, Robotaxi, and Robosweeper concepts [2] - The Ministry of Commerce's recent plan aims to foster leading enterprises in the digital supply chain and promote the use of smart logistics technologies, including unmanned delivery vehicles [3][4] - The potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that by 2025, leading companies could deliver tens of thousands of units, and a penetration rate of over 17% in the last-mile delivery market could lead to a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan [4][5] Group 3 - Recent developments in the autonomous driving industry include strategic partnerships and expansions by companies like Pony.ai and Baidu, indicating a growing presence in global markets [4] - Tesla plans to launch its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, by the end of June, with projections indicating a significant market size for Robotaxi services by 2030 [5][6] - The market for autonomous trucks is expected to enter a phase of full automation testing by 2025, with the combined market for autonomous truck systems and services projected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2030 [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower and trading volume slightly increasing, surpassing 1 trillion yuan but remaining at recent low levels [1][2] - A total of 1,751 stocks rose while 3,480 fell, with 75 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 13 hitting the limit down [2] Sector Performance - Several "car"-related sectors showed strength, driven by three main factors: the overnight surge of Chinese concept stocks Xiaoma Zhixing and WeRide, the expansion of the robotics market from components to applications, and the recent strong performance of unmanned logistics vehicles [1] - New consumption concepts remained hot, with sectors like beauty care and beverages leading the gains, including Kweichow Moutai achieving a six-day four-limit rise [1] - Environmental protection stocks surged, particularly in medical waste treatment and garbage classification, while nuclear power and controllable nuclear fusion sectors also showed strength [1] Fund Flow - Main funds focused on sectors such as general retail, automotive parts, and general equipment, with notable net inflows into stocks like Xue Ren Co., Gongxiao Daji, and Guofang Group [3] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics is developing policies to cultivate a national integrated data market, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts to enhance data market construction [4] - From January to April, state-owned enterprises reported total profits of 13,491.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while total operating revenue remained flat at 262,755.0 billion yuan [5] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities maintains a view that the market may experience a period of oscillation, with both upward and downward risks being less visible [6] - Overall market style may rotate between defensive and growth sectors, with a focus on stable or high-dividend industries for defensive strategies and theme growth for growth strategies [8] - Dongfang Securities suggests that the market will primarily undergo oscillation and adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to consolidate within the 3,300-3,400 point range [9]