Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have experienced a significant pullback, with the main contract for gold (沪金2602) closing at 984.84 CNY per gram, down 3.11%, and silver (沪银2602) at 18,140 CNY per kilogram, down 3.96% [2][7]. Price Adjustment - The recent adjustment in precious metal prices has been previously indicated, particularly for silver, which has seen a rise exceeding fundamental pricing logic since December, driven by tight spot supply and low inventory levels [2][8]. - The market is facing bearish factors, including a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's easing pace expected in 2026, stable U.S. economic data, and rising raw material prices potentially leading to inflationary pressures that may suppress the likelihood of unexpected easing by the Fed [2][8]. Index Weight Adjustment - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight adjustment starting January 8, 2026. Due to the strong performance of gold and silver over the past three years, their weights in the index have significantly exceeded target levels, which may create short-term bearish pressure on gold and silver prices [2][8]. Market Outlook - The long-term logic of gold as a substitute for dollar assets remains fundamentally unchanged, maintaining an optimistic view on gold [2][8]. - Silver prices have shown strength due to spot shortages, reaching historical highs, but the price volatility necessitates careful position management and strict stop-loss execution, with caution advised against profit-taking risks during high-level fluctuations [2][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline of Shanghai Silver in the afternoon of December 29, 2025, was the result of the resonance of macro - expectation reversal, concentrated speculation exit, and technical breakdown. Although short - term fluctuations have increased, the medium - term logic has not been completely broken [3]. - For A - shares, except for the Shanghai Composite Index's 9 - day consecutive positive trend, the other indexes showed high - level oscillations. The Shanghai Stock Index is expected to have limited adjustment, and low - buying is recommended if it doesn't effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5][6]. - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market volatility, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shanghai Silver - **Reasons for decline**: The probability of a US interest rate cut in January dropped to about 15%, increasing the opportunity cost of non - interest - bearing silver; there was a rush to take profits, with significant net capital outflows; geopolitical risk - aversion receded; and policy and delivery factors influenced the market [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: In the short term, focus on the 17,000 yuan/kg support. If it rebounds quickly, observe capital inflows and the recovery of the 19,000 integer mark. In the medium term, due to the tight supply and low inventory, one should not take a unilateral short position. It is recommended to control positions strictly, set stop - losses, and focus on short - term operations [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a significant decline, dragging down the entire index. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, while small - cycle adjustments are occurring, with limited expected adjustment intensity. Low - buying is recommended if the Shanghai Stock Index does not effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5]. 3.3 Gold - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market fluctuations, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is intensifying. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended, with high - selling and low - buying [11][12]. 3.5 Glass - Technically, there are signs of bottom - stabilization recently, and bottom - fishing buying can be considered. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The market in the sales area is relatively strong under multiple positive factors [17]. 3.7 Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and the market is expected to be in an oscillating state [20].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 贵金属延续强势表现，主力合约沪银2602收于16210元/千克，涨幅达6.06%；主力合约沪金2602收于 1000.86元/克，涨幅达2.10%。在贵金属ETF方面，12月19日当周（目前最新）黄金SPDR ETF持仓量1， 052.54吨，白银SLV ETF持仓量16，018吨。 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 宏观方面，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创 下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人；8月和9 月 也合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速。较为弱势的就业数据可 能推动美联储维持宽松的货币政策取向。通胀方面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以 来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。 整体CPI同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的3.1% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the re - release of US employment data and the sharp decline of US tech stocks led to a fall in precious metal prices. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the RMB depreciated slightly. The gold and silver prices rebounded before the release of US non - farm data but dropped again after the news that the October non - farm data would not be released. The market expects no interest rate cut this year. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences. The Japanese bond market was sold off, and the yen depreciated. The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, while that of Shanghai silver continued to decline. This week, attention should be paid to US PCE data, the progress of the US - Ukraine "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea. Overall, the upward momentum of gold and silver has weakened significantly, and they will mainly fluctuate [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed down 3.65% at a minimum of 920.5 yuan/gram, COMEX Gold closed down 0.77% at a minimum of 3997.4 yuan/ounce, Shanghai Silver 2602 closed down 6.61%, and COMEX Silver closed down 2.02%. The US dollar index rose 0.87% to a maximum of 100.395, and the RMB depreciated 0.07% [4][14]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued jobless claims reached a 4 - year high. The September non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected value, but the non - farm employment numbers in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The labor participation rate unexpectedly increased, pushing up the unemployment rate. Full - time employment recovered, but industries such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing continued to lay off workers, and wage growth slowed month - on - month. The October non - farm data will not be released, and the November report will be released after the Fed's December meeting [14][15]. - **Fed's Meeting Minutes**: There were serious differences among participants. Many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December, some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market, some thought it might be suitable to cut interest rates in December, and many thought it might be suitable to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Most people thought that interest rate cuts might exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term bond holdings [14][16]. - **Japanese Market**: The Japanese bond market was sold off due to concerns about the large - scale fiscal expansion plan of the Kishida government. The 40 - year yield soared to a 2007 high, and the 20 - year and 30 - year yields rose by at least 4 basis points. The yen fell below the key psychological level of 155, and the Nikkei 225 index closed down 3.2%. The market expects the stimulus scale to exceed expectations, and the ruling party even pressured for a supplementary budget of 25 trillion yen [14][16]. - **Other News**: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the US for the first time in seven years and confirmed that the investment in the US would increase to $1 trillion. The investment agreement includes nearly $142 billion in US defense equipment sales [17]. 3.2 Weekly Review - This week, attention should be paid to the release of US PCE data, China's November official manufacturing PMI, the fact that Trump set November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the US "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Indexes**: Data on various precious metal price indexes such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Shanghai Silver 2602, Gold 2512, Silver 2512, SGE Gold T + D, SGE Silver T + D, London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, the US dollar index, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB are provided, including previous closing prices, highs, lows, changes, and change rates [4]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Position**: The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing [14]. - **Shanghai Silver Position**: The net long position of Shanghai silver continued to decline, with both long and short positions decreasing [14]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, with both long and short positions increasing; the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data has not been updated [32]. - **ETF Position**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and silver ETF have both stopped falling and slightly increased [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai gold continued to increase, the inventory of COMEX gold continued to decrease, the inventory of Shanghai silver stopped falling, and the inventory of COMEX silver continued to decrease [39][40][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant fluctuations in various commodities, with lithium carbonate experiencing a strong price surge, while other commodities like gold and copper face notable capital outflows [5][4][17] - Lithium carbonate's main contract hit a limit-up, increasing by 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024, driven by strong market sentiment and ongoing inventory depletion [5][12] - The market is witnessing a mixed performance, with some commodities like caustic soda and crude oil showing increased positions, indicating new capital inflow and heightened trading activity [3][4] Group 2 - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia for the first half of November decreased by 10% compared to the previous month, indicating a potential supply constraint in the market [6] - The organic silicon industry is set to hold a meeting on November 18 to discuss production cuts, which could impact supply dynamics in the sector [7] - A coal mine in the Lüliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons, which may affect coal supply in the region [8] Group 3 - The market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decline in prices as market expectations for a December rate cut are adjusted [17][18] - The domestic gold jewelry market is experiencing price increases, but this may suppress demand in the short term as consumers adjust to the new pricing [18] - The shipping index for the European route saw a significant increase, but expectations for price hikes during the year-end peak season are tempered by supply concerns [14][15]