2026年以来，市场关于白银价格或因彭博商品指数(BCOM)再平衡有所下行的传言甚嚣尘上。然而，在 供需格局及市场认知变化下，调整期内白银价格再创新高。截至1月16日，伦敦现银价格收于90.134美 元/盎司，周涨幅12.8%，最高突破93美元/盎司一线。与此同时，COMEX白银期货价格周涨幅13.37%， 上海白银期货价格周涨幅22.83%。 华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇表示，之所以上周白银价格未受BCOM权重再平衡影响，主要 有下几方面因素影响：一是白银的投资需求并没有下降。金融机构的配置需求和中小交易者的投资需 求，在部分被动基金平仓后成为新的购买力量。CFTC公布的数据显示，截至1月13日当周，COMEX白 银非商业净多持仓不降反升，从去年12月最后一周的3万手升至3.2万手。二是实物白银供应紧张导致企 业也大量买入白银进行保值。白银生产商等供应商降低卖出套保持仓，囤积待涨。去年四季度， COMEX白银商业净空持仓持续下降，从2025年9月底的8万手降至1月13日当周的5.5万手。 格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏补充说，BCOM年度再平衡的交易窗口期被严格限定，本质上就 意味着本轮影响是短 ...

Group 1 - Gold demonstrated strong resilience during trading on January 9, rebounding from an intraday low of $4,415 per ounce to close at $4,487, marking a daily increase of $20.80. This performance underscores the core role of safe-haven assets in a complex environment despite increasing global market uncertainties [1][3] - Silver futures faced more significant pressure during the same period, with prices dropping by $1.30, a decline of 1.67%, ultimately settling at $76.89. Silver had previously touched a low of $73.52 before a mild recovery alongside gold [4][5] - The divergence in the performance of gold and silver highlights a subtle shift in investor sentiment and reflects distinctly different fundamental drivers behind the two markets [5] Group 2 - RadexMarkets warns investors of potential volatility due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) annual rebalancing scheduled from January 9 to 15, which aims to accurately reflect the global commodity landscape based on last year's liquidity and production data. Historical trends indicate that rebalancing periods often lead to increased trading activity and short-term price dislocations [2][5] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with recent economic data showing that job openings in November fell to 7.7 million, below the expected 7.8 million, marking a 14-month low. This weak labor demand suggests a potential basis for the Federal Reserve to pursue further monetary easing [2][5] - Despite the U.S. dollar index rising by 1.23% over the past nine trading days, gold has managed to remain close to its historical high set on December 29. The decoupling of gold from its traditional negative correlation with the dollar signals significant market developments, indicating that geopolitical risks and strong central bank demand for gold are currently dominating pricing factors [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is undergoing a significant rebalancing, with a large scale of fund flows expected from January 4 to January 14, following the principle of "sell winners, buy losers" due to the performance disparity between precious metals and oil [2][10]. Fund Flow Breakdown - The rebalancing will involve approximately 20% of daily trading operations, with a notable focus on selling precious metals and buying underperforming commodities [2][10]. - Precious metals are expected to face over $14 billion in nominal selling pressure, with silver alone facing up to $7.1 billion and gold $7 billion in sell orders [4][6][14]. Market Insights - Analysts from Scotiabank and other banks suggest that despite the anticipated selling pressure on gold and silver, fundamental factors may still support their prices, advising investors to consider buying on price dips caused by these fund flows [4][5][12]. - The energy market is highlighted as having significant potential, particularly natural gas, which is expected to transition from being heavily sold to a net buying commodity due to a 23% price drop since early December [15]. Specific Commodity Insights - Cocoa is experiencing a notable influx of buying funds, with 56% of its open contracts affected, indicating potential volatility in this market [16]. - Brent crude oil is projected to see a net inflow of $3.6 billion, while WTI crude oil is expected to see $2.4 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards energy commodities [7][19].

Core Market Trends - Asian stock markets have entered a "technically overbought" zone, leading to a pause in the upward trend driven by the AI boom and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results, while European markets opened with varied performance [2] - Precious metals experienced significant declines, with gold, silver, and palladium all dropping, and oil prices also under pressure [1][2] Commodity Market Adjustments - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for annual weight rebalancing from January 8 to 14, which is expected to trigger substantial passive fund reallocations [1][4] - The anticipated sell-off due to this rebalancing is projected to account for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings, creating significant downward pressure on prices [1][4] Precious Metals Impact - The adjustment is causing notable selling pressure in the precious metals sector, particularly for silver, which faces a sell-off equivalent to 9% of its total holdings [4] - This "non-fundamental" selling triggered by index rules is forcing speculative funds to exit before the event, exacerbating short-term price volatility [4] Oil Market Developments - The announcement by the Venezuelan government to deliver 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. has raised concerns about increased supply, contributing to a decline in WTI crude oil prices [9] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that while short-term supply prospects are uncertain, a potential recovery in Venezuelan oil production could exert significant downward pressure on global oil prices in the long term [9]

Group 1 - Spot gold has fallen below $4,450 per ounce, with spot silver dropping over 3%, spot platinum declining more than 7%, and spot palladium decreasing over 5% [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for an annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which will force passive funds to execute "technical selling" [1] - The expected futures selling pressure is projected to account for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to create short-term selling pressure on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, but is unlikely to alter the long-term market dynamics for these commodities [1][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Impact - The target weight for precious metals in the BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90% and silver's decreasing from 4.49% to 3.94% [2]. - The actual weights of gold and silver in the index have significantly exceeded their target allocations, with gold's weight dropping from 20.7% to 14.9% and silver's from 8.3% to 3.9% due to price increases anticipated in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Analysts predict that passive funds will need to sell gold and silver futures to realign with the new target weights, leading to short-term price fluctuations primarily in early to mid-January [4]. - The overall impact of this adjustment is considered limited, as the announcement was made well in advance, and the market may have already priced in the potential selling pressure [4]. - The fundamental drivers of the precious metals market, such as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic changes, are expected to remain strong despite the technical adjustments [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on the long-term fundamentals that drive the market, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in gold during this period of price pressure [5]. - The rising geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support gold's resilience and safe-haven attributes, with recommendations to overweight gold in investment portfolios [5]. - There is an expectation that historical price peaks for gold and silver may not have been reached yet, with potential for significant price increases in the coming years, particularly for silver around the Lunar New Year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to create short-term selling pressure on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, but it is unlikely to alter the long-term dynamics of the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Impact - The target weight for precious metals in the BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90% and silver's decreasing from 4.49% to 3.94% [2]. - The actual weights of gold and silver in the index have significantly exceeded their target allocations, with gold's actual weight dropping from 20.7% to 14.9% and silver's from 8.3% to 3.9% due to price increases anticipated in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Passive funds tracking the index will need to sell gold and silver futures to realign with target allocations, leading to expected selling pressure primarily in early to mid-January [4]. - Analysts believe that while this adjustment may cause short-term price fluctuations, it will not change the underlying fundamental forces driving the precious metals market, such as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on long-term market fundamentals rather than short-term adjustments, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in gold and silver during this price pressure [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term gold prices, with predictions of potential new highs for silver prices around the Lunar New Year [5].

Group 1: Venezuela's Economic Decline - Venezuela has transitioned from a prosperous nation to one of the most severe economic downturns globally, with 86% of its population living in poverty and a GDP contraction exceeding 70% since 1999 [1][3] - The country experienced hyperinflation, peaking at 10 million percent in 2019, leading to a situation where citizens used money as toilet paper rather than for purchases [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has engaged in aggressive actions in Venezuela, viewing it as a strategic move in a broader geopolitical game, particularly concerning oil and resources [2][7] - The U.S. has signaled a new Monroe Doctrine, indicating that its interests in the Western Hemisphere will not be limited to Venezuela alone, suggesting a potential escalation in regional conflicts [8] Group 3: Commodity Market Reactions - The recent geopolitical tensions are expected to impact commodity markets, particularly gold and silver, with significant sell-offs anticipated due to rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [10][12] - Analysts predict substantial sell-offs in precious metals, estimating around $3.8 billion in total for gold and silver due to market adjustments [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices have experienced a significant pullback, with the main contract for gold (沪金2602) closing at 984.84 CNY per gram, down 3.11%, and silver (沪银2602) at 18,140 CNY per kilogram, down 3.96% [2][7]. Price Adjustment - The recent adjustment in precious metal prices has been previously indicated, particularly for silver, which has seen a rise exceeding fundamental pricing logic since December, driven by tight spot supply and low inventory levels [2][8]. - The market is facing bearish factors, including a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's easing pace expected in 2026, stable U.S. economic data, and rising raw material prices potentially leading to inflationary pressures that may suppress the likelihood of unexpected easing by the Fed [2][8]. Index Weight Adjustment - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight adjustment starting January 8, 2026. Due to the strong performance of gold and silver over the past three years, their weights in the index have significantly exceeded target levels, which may create short-term bearish pressure on gold and silver prices [2][8]. Market Outlook - The long-term logic of gold as a substitute for dollar assets remains fundamentally unchanged, maintaining an optimistic view on gold [2][8]. - Silver prices have shown strength due to spot shortages, reaching historical highs, but the price volatility necessitates careful position management and strict stop-loss execution, with caution advised against profit-taking risks during high-level fluctuations [2][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market dynamics of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a trading volume of 6.91 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.46% as of December 30, 2025 [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced a net inflow of 15.54 billion yuan over the last four days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing in 2026 may lead to short-term technical disturbances in precious metals, particularly affecting silver due to its weaker liquidity [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which consists of 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal and non-metal materials sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Tianqi Lithium, and Chifeng Gold [2]