根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的转发。若您不 是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 摘 要 受补贴政策退坡预期影响，市场当前对汽车明年周期下行的悲观预期较为充分，我们认为销量表现可能好于市场预期，投资机会围绕预期修复、个股 alpha，以及零部件的智驾/机器人/液冷板块行情来布局。 销量展望： 预计2026年零售+1.0%、批发+4.6%，其中电车批发+8%、油车批发+1%，库存微增20万辆（按年末），出口686万辆/+21%。相较于市场更悲观的销量预 期，我们销量展望更为乐观，来源在于：1）4Q25销量低于预期，部分需求会顺延至明年，降低25年基数、抬高26年尤其26Q1需求；2）对政策托底持积 极预期。 竞争展望： 整车角度，经济型和高端型品牌头部格局已基本成型，二线品牌进一步放量难度加大，价格端主要体现：1）行业进入"被动加库"的价格压力提升；2）反 内卷的政策指引减缓价格压力。零部件角度，则主要考虑电车增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of increased motion sickness experienced by passengers in electric vehicles (EVs), attributing it to the mismatch between the rapid acceleration and deceleration of EVs and the human body's adaptation to traditional gasoline vehicles [10][19][24]. Group 1: Urban Mobility Changes - Urban mobility has accelerated, but human bodies have not adapted to this new pace, leading to discomfort during commutes [10][19]. - The frequent stop-and-go nature of city driving exacerbates the issue, as passengers struggle to adjust to the rapid changes in speed [21][24]. Group 2: Physical Responses and Sensory Feedback - Human balance relies on visual cues, physical sensations, and feedback from the vestibular system, which are disrupted in EVs due to their silent operation and immediate response to acceleration [19][20]. - The lack of engine noise in EVs means that passengers do not receive the auditory cues that prepare their bodies for movement, leading to increased instances of motion sickness [20][21]. Group 3: Driver Behavior and Passenger Experience - Driver behavior, such as sudden acceleration or deceleration, can significantly impact passenger comfort, with anxious drivers contributing to a more erratic ride [20][25]. - The design of EVs, including features like regenerative braking, can create a jarring experience for passengers, as the vehicle's behavior differs from traditional cars [25][26]. Group 4: Industry Response and Consumer Adaptation - Car manufacturers are aware of the motion sickness issue but prioritize efficiency and performance over passenger comfort, leading to a growing disconnect between vehicle design and user experience [25][26]. - There is a rising trend in the market for solutions aimed at reducing motion sickness, such as "anti-motion sickness" features and products, indicating a potential new market segment [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the ratio of gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles in China's passenger car market will be 3:7, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [1][3] - The competitive advantage of electric vehicles is expected to continue to improve, driven by the increasing penetration rate of electric vehicles, the growing proportion of post-95 car buyers, and the deep development of smart technology [3][4] - The rise of domestic brands in the passenger car market is characterized by three breakthroughs in market share, with the current surge driven by electric vehicles, reaching around 70% market share [3][4] Group 2 - The competition between gasoline and electric vehicles is described as a relationship of coexistence rather than replacement, with each having its own advantages and disadvantages [3][4] - The growth of Chinese automotive brands in overseas markets is supported by the increasing acceptance of these brands and the projected growth of the global market, particularly in emerging markets [5][6] - The development of both domestic and international markets for Chinese automotive brands is closely linked to the continuous improvement of digitalization and intelligence levels within the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons why car owners prefer gasoline vehicles over electric vehicles, highlighting factors such as cost-effectiveness, charging infrastructure, and concerns about battery technology and long-distance travel anxiety [4][5][29]. Group 1: Research Methodology - The research is based on a sample of 26 car owners from 7 major brands and 13 models, focusing on popular gasoline vehicles in various price ranges [3][11]. - The sample includes owners of Audi (A6L, Q5L), BMW (3 Series, 5 Series), Mercedes-Benz (GLC), Volkswagen (Sagitar, Passat, Tiguan L), Toyota (Corolla, RAV4, Camry), Nissan (Sylphy), and General Motors (Envision) [3][11]. Group 2: Reasons for Choosing Gasoline Vehicles - Nearly all interviewed car owners agree that gasoline vehicles offer high cost-performance, with many expressing a strong preference for them [4][11]. - Concerns about the long-term costs of electric vehicles, particularly regarding battery replacement after ten years, lead to skepticism about their overall affordability [4][11]. - Approximately 50% of respondents lack the conditions to install dedicated charging stations [4][11]. - Many owners believe that electric vehicle battery technology is not yet mature, contributing to their hesitance [4][11]. - Long-distance travel anxiety remains a significant concern for potential electric vehicle buyers [4][11]. Group 3: Perception of Electric Vehicle Advantages - While owners acknowledge that the per-kilometer cost of electric vehicles is lower, this advantage diminishes for those who drive less than 10,000 kilometers annually [5][11]. - Features such as aesthetics, smart driving, and additional comforts are seen as secondary benefits that do not outweigh the fundamental acceptance of electric vehicles [5][11]. Group 4: Preference for Luxury Brands (BBA) - Owners define luxury vehicles by their social attributes and trust in high-quality brands, with BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) being recognized for their long-standing reputation [6][11]. - The willingness to consider electric vehicles from luxury brands often stems from previous experiences with BBA, where buyers may prioritize family needs or a change of taste [6][11]. Group 5: Factors Influencing Purchase Decisions - The primary factors influencing the purchase of gasoline vehicles include brand reputation, price, and practicality, with aesthetics and advanced driving features being less significant [28][29]. - The lack of charging infrastructure is the most cited reason for not purchasing electric vehicles, with 42% of respondents indicating this as a barrier [29][30]. - Concerns about battery technology and long-distance travel capabilities are also significant factors, with 15% and 12% of respondents citing these issues, respectively [33][35]. Group 6: Future Considerations for Electric Vehicle Purchases - Many respondents express a willingness to consider electric vehicles in the future, contingent upon improvements in charging infrastructure and vehicle quality [36][37]. - A common sentiment among respondents is to wait until electric vehicles have proven reliability and cost-effectiveness compared to gasoline vehicles [36][37].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of BYD's sales in rural areas, particularly in Qian'an, Hebei Province, where monthly sales have increased from a few dozen to nearly 300 vehicles during peak seasons [1][12] - The Chinese government has initiated the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) rural promotion campaign, marking the sixth year of efforts to boost NEV sales in lower-tier markets [1] Sales Experience and Strategies - Sales representatives emphasize the importance of calculating total ownership costs for customers, including purchase and operational expenses, to build trust and facilitate sales [2][4] - Customer engagement is crucial, with salespeople often spending several hours addressing potential buyers' questions, leading to high conversion rates [4][5] Customer Demographics and Preferences - Approximately 50% of customers at the Qian'an store are from rural areas, with many traveling significant distances to purchase vehicles [1][10] - Rural customers prioritize vehicle quality and have concerns about the longevity and maintenance of electric vehicle batteries [5] Marketing and Outreach Efforts - The dealership employs innovative marketing strategies, such as mobile promotional events (small van activities) in rural areas, which have increased rural customer engagement by about 30 percentage points over two years [11][12] - The dealership also focuses on after-sales service, achieving a 90% return rate for first maintenance visits, which enhances customer loyalty [11] Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer preferences, with more buyers in the 200,000 RMB and above segment considering domestic NEVs over traditional joint-venture brands [9][12] - The overall sales of NEVs in rural areas have surged, with annual sales increasing from 397,000 units in 2020 to 7.598 million units in 2024, totaling nearly 15 million units sold over five years [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry [3] Core Views - The report highlights that overseas light vehicle sales remained flat year-on-year in May, with a slight month-on-month increase, totaling approximately 4.63 million units, down 0.1% year-on-year and up 2.1% month-on-month [2][6] - It anticipates a decline in overseas light vehicle sales in 2025, projecting a total of 53.97 million units, down 2.0% year-on-year [6][7] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year, particularly in Europe and North America, where sales growth is expected to slow [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales in May were approximately 7.15 million units, up 3.8% year-on-year and 3.0% month-on-month, with overseas sales at about 4.63 million units [6] - North America saw sales of 1.78 million units in May, up 2.3% year-on-year, while Europe recorded 1.41 million units, down 2.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The report notes that global electric vehicle sales reached approximately 1.75 million units in May, up 31% year-on-year [6][7] 2. Market Competition - The report provides insights into the competitive landscape, indicating that major automakers like Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD are leading in global sales [32][39] - It highlights the market share changes among the top ten automakers, with significant movements noted in the electric vehicle segment [32][39] 3. Automotive and Parts Company Export Situation - The report discusses the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, noting a monthly growth rate in export delivery values [42] - It emphasizes the importance of overseas revenue for certain automotive parts companies, with several companies reporting over 10% of their revenue from international markets [41]

Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen's global sales growth has significantly slowed down due to high tariffs in the U.S. and declining demand in key markets [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2, Volkswagen's global vehicle deliveries increased slightly by 1.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.27 million vehicles [2][4] - In the U.S., Volkswagen's overall sales dropped by 16% year-on-year in Q2, contrasting with a 4.4% growth in Q1, indicating the direct impact of tariff policies on demand [2] - Sales of high-profit brands such as Porsche, Audi, Lamborghini, and Bentley fell by 7.7% year-on-year in Q2, totaling 480,200 units [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on products from the EU, which has adversely affected Volkswagen's North American operations [3] - In China, Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales plummeted by nearly one-third due to intensified competition from local brands like BYD, although overall sales in China grew by 2.8% driven by an increase in gasoline vehicle sales [3] - Despite pressures in major markets, Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales globally rose by 38% year-on-year in Q2, with a remarkable 73% increase in the European market [3] Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Volkswagen's profit in Q1 declined by 40%, raising concerns about profitability due to a structural shift towards lower-margin vehicles [5] - The management emphasized the continuation of electric vehicle strategies and expansion into emerging markets to adapt to changing global market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Chairman Lei Jun stated on Weibo that the company has no plans to manufacture oil vehicles [1] Group 1 - Lei Jun's response indicates a clear strategic direction for Xiaomi, focusing on electric vehicles rather than traditional oil-powered cars [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese automotive brands are increasingly competitive, with improved aesthetics, lower prices, and better quality, challenging foreign car manufacturers [1][10] - The market is underestimating the potential of new Chinese car manufacturers, with the transition to electric vehicles and smart driving technology being inevitable trends [1][3] - The author expresses a stronger preference for domestic tire stocks over automotive stocks, citing the easier global expansion potential for tire manufacturers compared to car manufacturers [1][2] Group 2 - Tire stocks have recently experienced significant declines, while automotive stocks have seen notable increases [2] - Tire stocks are characterized by low valuations and high dividends, whereas automotive stocks have high valuations and low dividends [2] - The competitive landscape for tire stocks is clearer compared to the still-evolving competition in the automotive sector [2]

Group 1 - General Motors (GM) plans to invest $4 billion in U.S. factories over the next two years to increase production of both gasoline and electric vehicles [1]