Market Overview - The A-share market closed positively on August 5, with a total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1%, reaching a new closing high for the year [1] - The leading consumption ETF (159928) saw a nearly 1% increase, with a trading volume of 470 million yuan and a net subscription of 208 million units, marking the ninth consecutive day of capital inflow, totaling over 1.4 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - The consumption ETF (159928) has a current scale exceeding 13.1 billion yuan, significantly leading its peers [1] - Key constituent stocks of the consumption ETF performed well, with Dongpeng Beverage rising over 3%, Luzhou Laojiao up over 2%, and Shanxi Fenjiu increasing over 1% [3] Policy and Economic Insights - Haitong International noted that six out of eight essential consumption sectors tracked in July maintained positive growth, while two sectors, including high-end and mid-range liquor, experienced negative growth due to new alcohol bans and adverse weather conditions [5] - The report highlighted that most liquor prices stabilized in July, with slight adjustments observed in various products [5] - The introduction of favorable policies, such as the implementation of a childcare subsidy system estimated at 100 billion yuan annually, is expected to stimulate essential consumption sectors [6] Industry Analysis - CITIC Securities indicated that the liquor industry has been under pressure this year, but signs of stabilization are emerging, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand and performance in the third quarter [7] - The report emphasized that leading liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends and buybacks, which may provide a safety margin for investments [7] - The analysis of Moutai's business model suggests a proactive approach to exploring new demand and adjusting its distribution network during the industry's cyclical downturn [8] Investment Strategy - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with over 68% of its top ten constituent stocks being essential consumer goods [8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy products and liquor, while remaining cautious about the potential decline in soft drink margins [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the largest consumption ETF (159928) experiencing fluctuations, reflecting a strong capital allocation interest in the consumer sector, with a net inflow of nearly 2.8 billion yuan over the past 60 days [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The consumption ETF (159928) has seen a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan, with a premium widening to 0.12% during the trading session, indicating investor interest [1]. - The ETF's underlying index has achieved record high profits, with a net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [5]. - As of April 23, the consumption ETF (159928) has a total share count exceeding 19.1 billion, maintaining a historical high [5]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Within the food and beverage sector, the white liquor segment has seen an increase in fund holdings, with the proportion of heavy holdings remaining the highest among sectors [5]. - Factors contributing to the increased allocation in the white liquor sector include improved consumer spending intentions, overall valuation uplift, and expected sales growth post-2024 [5]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the consumption ETF account for 67% of its weight, with five leading liquor stocks comprising 36% [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a strengthening of policies in May, which may benefit the consumer sector, particularly in light of recent macroeconomic meetings and a relatively loose capital environment [5]. - The consumption ETF's valuation remains attractive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.66, placing it in the bottom 1.98% of its valuation range over the past decade [5].