2025 年 8 月 22 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 多家覆铜板企业发布涨价函 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2025/08/08-2025/08/21） 行 业 | 一、行情回顾及估值 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、产业新闻 | | 5 | | 三、公司公告 | | 5 | | 四、行业数据 | | 6 | | 五、周观点 | | 7 | | 六、风险提示 | | 8 | | 图 | 1 | ：申万电子板块近 | 10 | 年 | PE | TTM（剔除负值）（截至 2025/8/21） | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. television import volume has significantly decreased due to tariff pressures, with a 16% year-on-year decline from January to June, and a staggering 71% drop in imports from China during the same period, culminating in a 99% decrease in June alone [2][6]. - The prices of large-size LCD panels have reached a 1.5-year low, with a 4% month-on-month decline in July for the 55-inch Open Cell panels, priced around $122, and a 6% decline for the 32-inch panels, priced around $34 [4][6]. - The global shipment volume of LCD panels for televisions has dropped to 57.86 million units in Q2, a 9% decrease from Q1, marking the lowest level in six quarters [6]. Group 2 - The operational rates of LCD panel factories have sharply declined, with rates dropping from 88% and 86% in March and April to 81%, 80%, and 80% in May, June, and July respectively [6]. - There is an expectation that LCD panel prices may continue to decline in August, as the market adjusts to reduced demand following the initial surge in purchases due to tariff concerns [7]. - The shift in television manufacturing from China to Mexico is notable, with Mexico's share of U.S. television imports rising from 40% in 2018 to 59% in the first five months of 2025, while China's share plummeted from 55% to 8% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home appliance industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) and the potential risks posed by the U.S. government's tariff policies on Chinese home appliance companies operating in Mexico [6][8] - It emphasizes that the concerns regarding the USMCA's risks are primarily focused on two aspects: the potential for the U.S. government to invoke national security clauses and the upcoming review of the agreement in 2026 [6][8] - The report suggests that the short-term impact of the USMCA's implementation is limited, as many leading Chinese home appliance companies have already established significant production capacities in Mexico that comply with the agreement's rules [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The home appliance industry consists of 80 listed companies with a total market value of 185.1 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 165.1 billion yuan [2] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 0.3%, 1.1%, and 21.4% respectively, while the relative performance is -3.2%, -5.6%, and 3.0% [3] USMCA Agreement Analysis - The USMCA is designed to encourage regional production and supply chain integration, with specific rules for determining the origin of products [12][14] - The agreement provides trade benefits only to goods certified as originating from the USMCA region [12][14] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future of the USMCA: the continuation of the current tariff framework and the tightening of origin certification rules [55][58] Company Strategies - Leading Chinese home appliance companies like Haier, Midea, Hisense, and TCL have established substantial production capacities in Mexico, which allows them to mitigate tariff risks effectively [6][7][56] - The report highlights that these companies have the capability to meet the USMCA's origin certification requirements, thus reducing potential tariff impacts [6][7][57] - The white goods sector, particularly Haier, is expected to strengthen its market position in North America due to its localized production and supply chain flexibility [7][60] Market Dynamics - The report notes that while black goods manufacturers face challenges due to the concentration of LCD panel supply chains in Asia, they can still expand their market share through product upgrades [7][61] - The overall competitive landscape for Chinese home appliance companies has shifted from relying on cost advantages to focusing on brand development, operational efficiency, and product innovation [60]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Core Viewpoint - Sharp has announced an asset transfer agreement with Aoi Electronics, selling its second factory and part of the land at its Mie base, while also assisting Aoi in introducing semiconductor packaging production lines. This move is part of Sharp's strategy to shift towards a brand-centric business structure and reduce its asset-heavy operations [2][4]. Financial Performance - Sharp's financial performance has been declining, with a nearly 9% year-on-year revenue drop in FY2023, amounting to 2.321 trillion yen (approximately 107.4 billion RMB), and a net loss of 149.98 billion yen (approximately 6.9 billion RMB). The decline is primarily attributed to asset write-downs in its panel business, particularly due to the shrinking market for small to medium-sized panels [2][3]. Historical Context - Sharp was a pioneer in the LCD display field, starting research in the 1970s and establishing a complete panel production system by the 1990s. At its peak, Sharp held nearly 30% of the global LCD panel market share, earning the title "Father of LCD" [2]. - However, after 2008, Sharp failed to adapt to industry trends and lost market share, dropping from approximately 28% in 2009 to below 20% in 2012, and further to 12% by 2015. The acquisition by Foxconn in 2016 was seen as a potential turnaround, but differences in technology and market strategy hindered effective integration [3]. Strategic Moves - Sharp has initiated a series of asset optimization actions, including the closure of its 10th generation line in Sakai, which could not meet the demands of the flexible display era, and the sale of TV factories in Poland and Mexico. These actions have improved cash flow and are expected to lead to profitability in FY2024 [3][4]. - The collaboration with Aoi Electronics indicates a new direction for Sharp, leveraging its precision manufacturing expertise to participate in the growing semiconductor packaging market. Analysts suggest that if Sharp can establish a stable partnership, it may expand into related services such as equipment maintenance and technical consulting, creating a new revenue stream [4]. Market Environment - The LCD panel market has become increasingly oligopolistic, with leading companies leveraging economies of scale to reduce costs. Sharp's heavy asset structure puts it at a disadvantage in cost control, making the sale of idle factories a necessary step to alleviate financial pressure and improve its balance sheet for future transformation [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan Display Inc. (JDI) is selling part of its liquid crystal panel manufacturing equipment from the Mobara factory to China's HKC, marking a significant shift in its operations as it ceases production for Apple, which previously accounted for 60% of its sales [1][2]. Group 1: Equipment Sale and Production Changes - JDI will stop production at the Mobara factory, which was originally scheduled to operate until March 2026, but is likely to cease operations by 2025 to reduce fixed costs [1]. - The equipment being sold includes manufacturing tools for liquid crystal and OLED panels, with the sale amount expected to be in the billions of yen [1]. - JDI's production for Apple peaked at approximately 380 billion yen in the fiscal year 2019, but is projected to drop to zero in the future [1][2]. Group 2: Company Background and Financials - JDI was established in 2012 under the leadership of the Japan Innovation Network (INCJ), which invested a total of 462 billion yen and plans to sell all its shares by March 2025 [2]. - The company has faced long-term operational difficulties, leading to a necessary scale reduction to maintain financial balance [1]. Group 3: Market Position and Collaborations - HKC ranks fifth globally in the market share for large-size liquid crystal panels used in televisions and personal computers [1]. - JDI and HKC had previously reached a collaboration agreement in 2023 regarding OLED business, but the mass production plans have since been shelved [1].

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology is strategically positioning itself in the semiconductor display industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit driven by its subsidiary TCL Huaxing's performance in the semiconductor display sector [1][12]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, TCL Technology expects revenue between 82.6 billion to 90.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% to 13%, and a net profit between 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 81% to 101% [1]. - In Q1, TCL Technology reported revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a 0.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a 322% increase year-on-year [8]. Business Expansion and Acquisitions - TCL Huaxing has established a comprehensive display product system in the LCD and OLED sectors through mergers and acquisitions, including the recent acquisition of LG's Guangzhou factory [2][3]. - The acquisition of LG's LCD panel factory and module factory has solidified TCL Huaxing's position in the large-size LCD panel market, with plans to complete the consolidation by Q2 2025 [2][3]. Production Capacity and Technology - TCL Huaxing currently operates 10 panel lines and 7 module factories, with an overall production capacity exceeding 50 million pieces [5]. - The newly acquired LG factory (T11) has a monthly production capacity of 180,000 pieces, focusing on large-size LCD displays for the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets [4]. Market Trends and Pricing - The average size of televisions is expected to increase, with a projected rise of approximately 1 inch globally in 2024 and 1.5 inches by Q1 2025 [8]. - There has been a price increase for large-size panel products, with 55-65 inch products rising by about $1 per piece and 75-85 inch products by $2 [9]. Strategic Vision - TCL Huaxing is seen as a key player in TCL Technology's global display strategy, focusing on high-tech, capital-intensive industries [13]. - The company aims to enhance its market penetration with a full range of products, including flexible OLEDs, and has achieved significant market share in various segments [13]. Financial Health and Investment - As of the end of 2024, TCL Technology's asset-liability ratio was 64.92%, with short-term borrowings of 8.193 billion yuan [14]. - The company has made substantial investments, leading to cash outflows, but is optimistic about the long-term benefits of its strategic investments [15].

Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance forecasts for the first half of 2025 from several companies in the display and electronics industry, highlighting significant profit declines for some and growth for others, influenced by market conditions and operational challenges [1][5][8]. Company Summaries 彩虹股份 (Rainbow Co., Ltd.) - Expected net profit for H1 2025 is between 410 million to 480 million yuan, a decrease of 47.59% to 55.23% year-on-year [1] - The decline is attributed to lower TV panel prices, a significant drop in G6 glass substrate sales, and increased financial costs due to external investments [1] - Despite the profit drop, the company continues to enhance production capacity for large-size high-refresh liquid crystal panels and expand its glass substrate business [1] 冠捷科技 (AOC Technology) - Forecasted net loss for H1 2025 is between -450 million to -490 million yuan [2] - The loss is due to intensified competition in the global display industry, declining product prices, and increased marketing expenditures [3] - The company plans to focus on technological innovation and product upgrades to improve its operational performance [4] 四川长虹 (Sichuan Changhong) - Expected net profit for H1 2025 is between 439 million to 571 million yuan, an increase of approximately 56.53% to 103.59% year-on-year [5] - The growth is mainly due to significant increases in non-recurring gains from investments, despite a decline in net profit excluding non-recurring items [5] - The company faces challenges in its real estate and home appliance sectors due to market conditions and increased competition [5] 深纺织 (Shenzhen Textile) - Projected net profit for H1 2025 is between 28 million to 42 million yuan, a decrease of 4.31% to 36.20% year-on-year [6] - The decline is influenced by falling product prices, increased procurement costs due to currency fluctuations, and higher R&D expenses [7] - Non-recurring gains are expected to impact net profit positively, primarily from changes in the fair value of financial products [7] 南京熊猫 (Nanjing Panda) - Expected net loss for H1 2025 is between -54 million to -45 million yuan [8] - The loss is attributed to transitional challenges in the industrial internet and smart manufacturing sectors, along with intense competition in the power and communication markets [8] 宝明科技 (Baoming Technology) - Forecasted net loss for H1 2025 is between -12 million to -15 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 67.67% to 74.14% year-on-year [9] - The improvement is due to increased gross margins in core products, despite ongoing losses from depreciation and other factors [10] - The company specializes in LED backlight sources and lithium battery composite copper foil production [10]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui has emerged as a new highland for industrial development in China, showcasing strong competitiveness in both traditional and emerging industries, driven by its unique geographical position, rich resource endowment, and robust policy support [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Development in Hefei - Hefei, as the capital of Anhui, has become a hub for innovation-driven industries, achieving breakthroughs in several strategic emerging sectors [3]. - The integrated circuit sector in Hefei has become a key development area, with over 500 upstream and downstream enterprises, producing nearly 8 billion chips from January to October 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [4]. - Hefei is a global leader in the new display industry, hosting major companies like BOE and Visionox, with significant investments in advanced AMOLED production lines [5]. - The new energy vehicle industry in Hefei has seen explosive growth, with production exceeding 1 million vehicles by October 2024, significantly surpassing the previous year's total of 746,000 vehicles [6]. - Hefei is also a key city for artificial intelligence, housing over a thousand AI-related enterprises, including iFlytek [8]. Group 2: Industrial Strengths in Wuhu - Wuhu is recognized as a cradle for automotive and intelligent equipment industries, with Chery Automobile being a leading player [9]. - Nearly a quarter of China's exported cars are produced in Anhui, with Chery being a major contributor [10]. - Wuhu has rapidly developed its robotics industry, supported by government policies aimed at promoting robotics development [12]. Group 3: Steel Industry Transformation in Ma'anshan - Ma'anshan, known as the "Steel City," has a long-standing steel industry, with Ma Steel Group being a key player [13]. - The company has increased investment in technological innovation to enhance product quality and value, focusing on high-end steel products [14]. Group 4: Glass Industry Innovation in Bengbu - Bengbu has a long history in the glass industry, forming a complete industrial chain from raw material production to deep processing [15]. - The city has made significant technological breakthroughs in new glass materials, such as ultra-thin and flexible glass, filling domestic gaps and breaking foreign monopolies [17]. Group 5: Home Appliance and Smart Hardware in Chuzhou - Chuzhou has rapidly developed into a major home appliance production base, attracting well-known brands like Skyworth and Konka [19]. - The city is also advancing in the smart hardware sector, with local companies innovating in smart home and wearable devices [19]. Group 6: Policy Support for Industrial Development - Anhui's government has implemented targeted policies to support industrial cluster development, including a three-year action plan for AI innovation and measures to promote county-level industrial clusters [22][23].