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当月合约距离到期还剩15天:50ETF
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 13:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The content mainly consists of data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related historical trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 50ETF price increased from 3.174 to 3.220 with corresponding daily price increases of 2.22%, 1.92%, and - 0.46%. The monthly IV increased from 12.81% to 15.24%, and the next - month IV from 14.41% to 16.87% [1] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 16.30%, 64.80%, 60.00% and 21.40%, 60.70%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 42.60%, 76.70%, 76.30% and 41.80%, 68.70%, 67.80% respectively [1] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 85.71 today, compared to 79.41 yesterday, 94.80 two days ago, 101.59 three days ago, and 92.86 four days ago [2] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2025/12/31 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.753 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of - 0.42%, 1.91%, 1.55%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.69% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.44% to 17.35% [3] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 28.10%, 46.90% and 29.00%, 47.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.90% and 47.70%, 67.00%, 62.50% respectively [3] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.17 today, compared to 88.31 yesterday, 98.98 two days ago, 103.24 three days ago, and 97.70 four days ago [5] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.921 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.95%, 1.52%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.82% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.40% to 17.35% [6] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 22.40%, 44.80%, 55.50% and 26.30%, 47.40%, 54.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.70%, 59.80%, 69.40% and 45.80%, 58.20%, 64.30% respectively [6] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.95 today, compared to 84.27 yesterday, 96.64 two days ago, 97.26 three days ago, and 97.01 four days ago [11] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price increased from 7.792 to 7.999, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.78%, 4.92%, and 2.66%. The monthly IV increased from 18.07% to 21.09%, and the next - month IV from 19.10% to 21.53% [13] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 40.00%, 69.70%, 74.60% and 29.80%, 58.00%, 62.70% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.40%, 72.90%, 74.20% and 41.40%, 64.90%, 66.30% respectively [13] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 95.76 today, compared to 91.41 yesterday, 97.43 two days ago, 103.65 three days ago, and 99.36 four days ago [16] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price increased from 3.075 to 3.157, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.74%, 2.15%, and 0.51%. The monthly IV increased from 18.47% to 21.22%, and the next - month IV from 19.61% to 22.17% [20] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 42.00%, 68.50% and 33.90%, 60.30%, 74.60%, 63.50% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 49.70%, 72.10%, 74.60%, 68.00% and 45.00%, 65.70% respectively [20] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.24 today, compared to 96.54 yesterday, 89.04 two days ago, 86.53 three days ago, and 94.69 four days ago [25] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the ChiNext ETF price increased from 3.281 to 3.311, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.98%, 0.67%, and 0.24%. The monthly IV increased from 24.55% to 26.32%, and the next - month IV from 26.88% to 28.42% [26] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 43.60%, 59.50%, 59.10% and 48.00%, 60.70%, 60.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.80%, 65.80%, 69.10% and 64.90%, 68.40%, 63.00% respectively [26] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.31 today, compared to 90.34 yesterday, 96.58 two days ago, 95.66 three days ago, and 95.52 four days ago [32] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.515 to 3.542, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.83%, 1.08%, and - 0.31%. The monthly IV increased from 17.73% to 19.45%, and the next - month IV from 19.06% to 21.47% [36] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.80%, 49.70%, 57.50% and 34.10%, 50.50%, 55.20% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.70%, 56.50%, 67.00% and 48.40%, 56.60%, 65.70% respectively [36] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.01 today, compared to 92.19 yesterday, 97.30 two days ago, 101.19 three days ago, and 101.65 four days ago [39] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price increased from 1.479 to 1.520, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.38%, 1.76%, and 1.00%. The monthly IV increased from 27.09% to 28.95%, and the next - month IV from 29.59% to 32.00% [45] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 44.40%, 49.20%, 52.70%, 60.60% and 55.50%, 59.50%, 64.50%, 69.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 52.60%, 55.60%, 63.70%, 68.00% [45] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 84.76 today, compared to 81.12 yesterday, 91.56 two days ago, 96.21 three days ago, and 97.41 four days ago [47] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the STAR 50ETF price increased from 1.430 to 1.471, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.23%, 1.89%, and 0.96%. The monthly IV increased from 27.66% to 30.50%, and the next - month IV from 29.05% to 33.31% [50] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 47.70%, 51.70%, 51.00%, 59.10% and 62.80%, 65.00%, 64.90%, 70.10% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.50%, 60.10%, 70.00%, 73.50% [50] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 90.94 today, compared to 86.62 yesterday, 97.19 two days ago, 96.99 three days ago, and 96.38 four days ago [57] 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 300 Index price changed from 4717.746 to 4776.666, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.90%, 1.55%, and - 0.29%. The monthly IV increased from 13.52% to 15.34%, and the next - month IV from 15.84% to 17.73% [63] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.40%, 63.60%, 57.50% and 25.90%, 56.40% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.30%, 66.10%, 73.00% and 46.60%, 61.70%, 51.30%, 65.60% respectively [63] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.84 today, compared to 89.05 yesterday, 73.68 two days ago, 97.40 three days ago, and 105.72 four days ago [67] 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 1000 Index price increased from 7753.880 to 7906.420, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.09%, 1.43%, and 0.53%. The monthly IV increased from 19.14% to 20.60%, and the next - month IV from 21.08% to 21.92% [68] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 36.30%, 54.60%, 52.60% and 21.20%, 34.90%, 31.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.80%, 63.20%, 55.10% and 26.50%, 46.80%, 35.50% respectively [68] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 98.78 today, compared to 90.94 yesterday, 95.62 two days ago, 111.32 three days ago, and 102.69 four days ago [72] 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 3099.746 to 3145.120, with corresponding daily price changes of 2.26%, 1.90%, and - 0.43%. The monthly IV increased from 12.42% to 15.54%, and the next - month IV from 56.52% to 68.21% [76] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 19.10%, 84.40% and 15.90%, 74.40%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 69.30%, 68.50%, 64.40% and 84.20%, 83.40%, 97.10%, 98.50% respectively [76] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is
风险偏好持续回升,股指大幅上涨
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 12:25
期货研究报告 今日各股指均大幅上涨。沪深京三市成交额 28322 亿元,较上日放量 2650 亿元。假期后股市连续放量上涨,主要源自假期后市场流动性回流以 及政策利好预期持续升温。近期政策面指出要建设现代化产业体系,优化提 升传统产业,加快战略新兴产业集群发展,推动未来产业建设,相关产业链 的股票在政策利好预期推动下显著上涨。资金面方面,融资余额和融资买入 金额同步回升,融资余额超 2.5 万亿元,融资买入金额接近 3000 亿元,说 明杠杆资金入市意愿较强,市场情绪较为乐观。中长期来看,政策面利好预 期以及资金净流入趋势构成驱动股指上行的主要逻辑。随着 2026 年政策面 不断落实落细政策利好,以及资金面持续净流入,股市风险偏好将持续上 升。总的来说,预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 期权方面,目前持仓量 PCR 与隐含波动率均位于正常区间,以牛市价 差或者比例价差温和看涨的思路对待。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:龙奥明 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 风险偏好持续回升,股指大幅上涨 核心观点 宝城期 ...
当月合约距离到期还剩20天:50ETF价格、隐波近三年走势
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 13:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary of Each ETF and Index 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.107 to 3.12, and daily price changes from -0.35% to 0.42%. The current IV of the month was between 11.93% and 12.86%, and the IV of the next month was between 13.04% and 13.99% [1]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 100.03 today [2]. Shanghai 300ETF - Price and volatility data from December 24 - 26, 2025, with price ranging from 4.757 to 4.784, and daily price changes from 0.19% to 0.57%. The current IV of the month was between 13.79% and 14.42%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.16% and 16.22% [3]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.35 today [5]. Shenzhen 300ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 4.838 to 4.860, and daily price changes from -0.45% to 0.41%. The current IV of the month was between 14.10% and 14.73%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.17% and 16.07% [6]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 107.43 four days ago, and 98.39 today [10]. Shanghai CSI 500ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 7.534 to 7.580, and daily price changes from 0.19% to 2.17%. The current IV of the month was between 17.60% and 18.88%, and the IV of the next month was between 18.05% and 19.38% [12]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.22 today [15]. Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 2.974 to 2.991, and daily price changes from -0.40% to 0.81%. The current IV of the month was between 17.37% and 18.81%, and the IV of the next month was between 17.74% and 19.77% [19]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 100.96 today [24]. ChiNext ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.205 to 3.226, and daily price changes from -0.65% to 0.31%. The current IV of the month was between 24.85% and 26.03%, and the IV of the next month was between 25.92% and 27.20% [25]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.68 today [31]. Shenzhen 100ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.470 to 3.485, and daily price changes from -0.43% to 0.29%. The current IV of the month was between 18.09% and 19.01%, and the IV of the next month was between 20.09% and 20.49% [35]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.71 today [38]. Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 1.417 to 1.422, and daily price changes from -0.21% to -0.07%. The current IV of the month was between 25.30% and 26.36%, and the IV of the next month was between 26.23% and 28.23% [44]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.11 today [46]. STAR 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 1.373 to 1.376, and daily price changes from -0.15% to -0.07%. The current IV of the month was between 25.91% and 27.29%, and the IV of the next month was between 27.43% and 29.24% [51]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.32 today [57]. 300 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 4639.372 to 4657.240, and daily price changes from -0.38% to 0.32%. The current IV of the month was between 14.67% and 14.88%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.82% and 16.84% [63]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 108.62 today [67]. 1000 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 7579.379 to 7605.530, and daily price changes from -0.15% to 0.97%. The current IV of the month was between 18.31% and 19.31%, and the IV of the next month was between 19.06% and 20.56% [68]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 104.72 today [73]. SSE 50 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3032.841 to 3045.404, and daily price changes from -0.35% to 0.41%. The current IV of the month was between 12.89% and 13.50%, and the IV of the next month was between 59.33% and 62.95% [78]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 97.89 today [84].
国投期货【50ETF】
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 13:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the price, price change, implied volatility (IV) data, and related quantile information of various ETFs and indexes over a 7 - day period from December 11 - 15, 2025, along with historical data on price, IV, skew index, and other aspects, aiming to help investors understand the market conditions and volatility characteristics of these financial products [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a - 0.38% drop on the 11th, a 0.45% increase on the 12th, and a - 0.03% drop on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 11.63% on the 11th to 11.04% on the 12th and then rose to 11.49% on the 15th [1]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 9.70%, 4.00%, 7.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 8.50%, 3.60%, 7.30% [1]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 98.60 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.72% on the 11th, increased by 0.56% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.58% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 12.70% on the 12th and then rose to 13.17% on the 15th [3]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 28.50%, 9.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.20%, 11.00% [3]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.37 [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.73% on the 11th, increased by 0.55% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.52% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 13.14% on the 12th and then rose to 13.66% on the 15th [6]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 20.40%, 12.20%, 16.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.50%, 14.10%, 21.40% [6]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.33 [11]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.30% on the 12th, and increased by 0.49% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.52% on the 11th to 15.67% on the 12th and then rose to 15.78% on the 15th [13]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.20%, 15.50%, 17.50%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 17.30%, 11.80%, 12.60% [13]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 110.66 [16]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.77% on the 11th, increased by 1.20% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.97% on the 11th to 15.48% on the 12th and then rose to 15.55% on the 15th [20]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 12.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 19.80%, 9.20%, 13.80%, 9.60% [20]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.56 [25]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.44% on the 11th, increased by 0.89% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.11% on the 11th to 23.78% on the 12th and then rose to 24.94% on the 15th [26]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 53.10%, 49.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 60.20%, 51.40%, 61.00% [26]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.91 [30]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.58% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.22% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 24.69% on the 11th to 18.19% on the 12th and then to 17.82% on the 15th [34]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 83.60%, 33.80%, 31.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 79.30%, 38.80%, 35.30% [34]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 108.31 [37]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.63% on the 11th, increased by 1.87% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.05% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 25.66% on the 11th to 24.11% on the 12th and then rose to 25.41% on the 15th [43]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.40%, 42.10%, 39.60%, 54.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.60%, 29.40%, 36.70%, 52.40% [43]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 99.79 [45]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.53% on the 11th, increased by 1.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.11% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.48% on the 11th to 23.94% on the 12th and then rose to 26.69% on the 15th [48]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 26.10%, 30.20%, 33.30%, 49.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 38.30%, 46.00%, 33.30%, 49.20% [48]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 100.71 [54]. 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.86% on the 11th, increased by 0.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.63% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.38% on the 11th to 11.78% on the 12th and then rose to 12.03% on the 15th [60]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 7.30%, 10.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 22.60%, 5.10% [60]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.95 [65]. 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.30% on the 11th, increased by 0.81% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.84% on the 15th. The IV data was not available [66]. - **IV quantiles**: All IV quantile data was not available [66]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 125.24 [71]. 3.12 SSE 50 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.39% on the 11th, increased by 0.59% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.25% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 12.19% on the 11th to 10.54% on the 12th and then to 9.88% on the 15th [72]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 12.60%, 1.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 11.20%, 1.00%, 0.20% [72]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.40 [78].
投顾晨报:胜率提升,震荡向上-20251210
Orient Securities· 2025-12-09 23:30
Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to favorable policy changes and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for brokerage firms [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand from domestic and international markets, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are set to be clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The report notes a slight recovery in market sentiment following favorable policies for domestic insurance companies and a shift in the U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - It suggests that the "slow bull" market will continue, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks being the backbone of the market's upward movement [4][9] Industry Strategy - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a positive regulatory environment that encourages the differentiation of firms, promoting high-quality development and improved profitability [5][9] - The military sector is projected to see growth driven by new production capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced equipment [6][9]
股指短线仍存震荡整固需求
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 11:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and slightly declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.92 trillion yuan, a decrease of 134 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The Political Bureau meeting pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, driving up the market's risk appetite. However, near the end of the year, the power of capital to drive the market to break through is insufficient, and there is still a need for short - term shock consolidation. Currently, the stock indices remain within the previous shock range. Subsequently, as more policy details are introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of policy benefits will gradually become the main line of the market, and the capital inflow is expected to continue, driving the stock indices to have a spring market. In general, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock indices will be mainly fluctuating strongly in the short term. [3] - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 9, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to close at 3.142; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.51% to close at 4.708; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 4.783; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to close at 4598.22; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.57% to close at 7380.58; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.74% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.80% to close at 2.844; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.54% to close at 3.188; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.29% to close at 3.467; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.71% to close at 2997.96; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.42% to close at 1.41; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.36% to close at 1.37. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 9, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 79.26 (previous day: 78.66), and the position PCR being 101.14 (previous day: 107.67). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 is 11.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 11.04%. [7][8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms for options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][20][33]
持续加仓!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-12-08 06:57
【导读】持续加仓,股票ETF单周"吸金"超108亿元 过去一周,A股市场延续反弹行情,股票ETF迎来资金净流入。 据银河证券基金研究中心数据统计,截至12月5日的一周,股票ETF(含跨境ETF)获资金净流入超过108亿元,其中,仅上周五单日资金净流入就逼近90 亿元。 多只中证A500ETF成为吸金"主力军",此外,中证1000ETF、科技类ETF也受到资金青睐。 股票ETF单周 从上周五单日情况看,宽基ETF与港股市场ETF净流入居前,分别达98.71亿元与11.9亿元,行业主题ETF净流出居前,净流出26.35亿元;规模变化方面, 宽基ETF规模上升317.03亿元。 具体到指数维度,跟踪中证A500指数的ETF单日净流入居前,达34.82亿元;跟踪证券公司指数的相关ETF单日净流出居前,净流出8.96亿元。 从最近5个交易日角度观测,近期资金流入跟踪中证A500指数的相关ETF超44亿元,流入跟踪恒生科技指数的相关ETF超19亿元。 大型基金公司旗下部分ETF继续保持资金净流入的步伐。 数据显示,易方达基金旗下ETF最新规模达到8171.2亿元,12月5日,规模增加80.8亿元。其中,沪深300ETF易 ...
持续加仓!
中国基金报· 2025-12-08 06:50
过去一周, A 股市场延续反弹行情,股票 ETF 迎来资金净流入。 据银河证券基金研究中心数据统计,截至 12 月 5 日的一周,股票 ETF (含跨境 ETF )获资金净流入超过 108 亿元,其中,仅上周五单 日资金净流入就逼近 90 亿元。 【导读】持续加仓,股票 ETF 单周 " 吸金 " 超 108 亿元 中国基金报记者 若晖 多只中证 A500ETF 成为吸金 " 主力军 " ,此外,中证 1000ETF 、科技类 ETF 也受到资金青睐。 股票 ETF 单周 资金净流入超 108 亿元 刚刚过去的一周, A 股市场继续小幅反弹,宽基指数多数收涨,创业板指单周涨幅达到 1.86% ,领跑主要宽基指数。 伴随着市场上涨,场内资金也在借道股票 ETF 布局。银河证券基金研究中心数据显示,截至 12 月 5 日,全市场 1269 只股票 ETF (含 跨境 ETF )总规模达 4.38 万亿元。股市反弹,股票 ETF 市场单周总份额增加 353.78 亿份。 数据显示,易方达基金旗下 ETF 最新规模达到 8171.2 亿元, 12 月 5 日,规模增加 80.8 亿元。其中,沪深 300ETF 易方达 ...
50ETF价格、隐波近一年走势:50ETF价格、隐波近三年走势
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 13:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 50ETF price changed from 3.114 to 3.113, with corresponding daily changes of 0.13%, -0.06%, and 0.03%. The current month IV decreased from 12.36% to 11.87% [1]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 19.50% and 19.00% respectively [1]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.626 to 4.635, with daily changes of 0.63%, -0.09%, and 0.28%. The current month IV decreased from 14.02% to 13.63% [4]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 25.30% and 31.60% respectively [4]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.778 to 4.783, with daily changes of 0.80%, -0.21%, and 0.31%. The current month IV decreased from 14.09% to 13.77% [7]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 28.50% and 32.90% respectively [7]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 7.065 to 7.135, with daily changes of 1.36%, -0.06%, and 0.99%. The current month IV decreased from 17.97% to 17.29% [16]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 29.70% and 29.40% respectively [16]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed from 2.825 to 2.846, with daily changes of 0.18%, -0.28%, and 1.03%. The current month IV decreased from 18.98% to 18.19% [27]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 39.50% and 41.50% respectively [27]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 3.027 to 3.035, with daily changes of 2.23%, -0.50%, and 0.76%. The current month IV decreased from 26.05% to 25.49% [34]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 50.60% and 60.30% respectively [34]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.370 to 3.370, with daily changes of 1.72%, -0.36%, and 0.36%. The current month IV decreased from 18.41% to 17.75% [43]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 33.80% and 42.90% respectively [43]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.382 to 1.393, with daily changes of 0.95%, -0.22%, and 1.02%. The current month IV decreased from 26.80% to 26.29% [51]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 35.10% and 35.50% respectively [51]. 3.9 Star 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Star 50ETF price changed from 1.340 to 1.350, with daily changes of 1.13%, -0.30%, and 1.05%. The current month IV decreased from 27.18% to 27.09% [56]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 35.90% and 38.30% respectively [56]. 3.10 300 Index - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 300 Index price changed from 4517.626 to 4526.662, with daily changes of 0.61%, -0.05%, and 0.25%. The current month IV decreased from 13.89% to 13.83% [65]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 33.40% and 31.20% respectively [65]. 3.11 1000 Index - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 1000 Index price changed from 7248.449 to 7334.210, with daily changes of -0.02%, 0.12%, and 1.06%. The current month IV decreased from 18.68% to 17.07% [70]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 14.70% and 23.60% respectively [70]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - From November 26 - November 28, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index price changed from 2971.799 to 2969.617, with daily changes of 0.12%, 0.02%, and -0.09%. The current month IV decreased from 12.13% to 11.89% [75]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 8.10% and 8.50% respectively [75].
50ETF:50ETF价格、隐波近三年走势
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 12:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - No clear core views are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the price, price change, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over specific periods, including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 50ETF price was 3.110, 3.114, and 3.112 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.52%, 0.13%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 11.24%, 12.36%, and 12.02%, and the next month IV was 12.76%, N/A, and 12.87%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 2.80% - 3.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 12.20% - 16.00% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.38 [7]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price was 4.597, 4.626, and 4.622 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.88%, 0.63%, and -0.09%. The current month IV was 14.87%, 14.02%, and 13.68%, and the next month IV was 14.47%, N/A, and 14.54%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 22.40% - 44.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 29.50% - 34.80% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.50 [10]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price was 4.740, 4.778, and 4.768 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.64%, 0.80%, and -0.21%. The current month IV was 16.50%, 14.09%, and 13.88%, and the next month IV was 14.91%, N/A, and 14.59%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 26.50% - 63.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.60% - 39.10% [11]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.13 [17]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price was 7.054, 7.065, and 7.050 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.91%, 1.36%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 20.90%, 17.97%, and 17.67%, and the next month IV was 18.55%, N/A, and 18.53%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 27.80% - 61.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.80% - 36.30% [20]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 113.37 [25]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price was 2.820, 2.825, and 2.817 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.18%, 0.18%, and -0.28%. The current month IV was 20.52%, 18.98%, and 18.52%, and the next month IV was 19.26%, N/A, and 18.99%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 59.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 42.90% [29]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 110.26 [35]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price was 2.961, 3.027, and 3.012 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.82%, 2.23%, and -0.50%. The current month IV was 26.96%, 26.05%, and 26.15%, and the next month IV was 26.08%, N/A, and 26.69%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 50.60% - 63.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 45.10% - 63.40% [36]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.55 [42]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price was 3.313, 3.370, and 3.358 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.35%, 1.72%, and -0.36%. The current month IV was 23.34%, 18.41%, and 17.90%, and the next month IV was 19.17%, N/A, and 18.51%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 29.70% - 74.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 33.80% - 53.00% [46]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.04 [49]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price was 1.369, 1.382, and 1.379 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.66%, 0.95%, and -0.22%. The current month IV was 34.51%, 26.80%, and 27.06%, and the next month IV was 27.59%, N/A, and 27.16%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 34.20% - 73.00%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 54.90% [55]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 97.96 [57]. 3.9 Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF price was 1.325, 1.340, and 1.336 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.61%, 1.13%, and -0.30%. The current month IV was 28.18%, 27.18%, and 27.64%, and the next month IV was 28.36%, N/A, and 28.44%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 35.90% - 58.30%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.00% - 58.10% [60]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 101.92 [64]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 300 Index price was 4490.405, 4517.626, and 4515.403 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.95%, 0.61%, and -0.05%. The current month IV was 14.92%, 13.89%, and 14.12%, and the next month IV was 15.81%, 15.02%, and 14.81%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 43.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 27.70% - 44.50% [70]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.31 [74]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 1000 Index price was 7249.947, 7248.449, and 7257.454 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.31%, -0.02%, and 0.12%. The current month IV was 19.12%, 18.68%, and 17.88%, and the next month IV was 19.92%, 19.30%, and 19.00%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 17.30% - 26.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 14.70% - 25.30% [75]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 118.11 [80]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index price was 2968.202, 2971.799, and 2972.265 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, and 0.02%. The current month IV was 13.18%, 12.13%, and 12.25%, and the next month IV was 48.04%, 48.30%, and 47.22%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 8.10% - 19.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.80% - 68.00% [86]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 109.32 [93].