国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 1 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2025/9/19 3.045 -0.10% 18.07% 18.96% 2025/9/22 3.054 0.30% 19.45% 18.87% 2025/9/23 3.054 0.00% 21.49% 18.43% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 66.90% 76.70% 84.80% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 77.90% 85.60% 91.00% 近1年 次月IV分位数 68.30% 66.20% 61.10% 近2年 次月IV分位数 82.00% 80.90% 77.80% 2025年9月23日 金融期权波动率 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2022/9/22 2023/2/24 2023/7/24 2023/12/19 2 ...

Market Overview - Major stock indices showed a mixed performance, with Shenzhen ETFs significantly outperforming Shanghai ETFs. The Shanghai Composite 50 ETF fell by 1.9%, while the CSI 300 ETF declined by 0.37%. In contrast, the CSI 500 ETF and ChiNext ETF rose by 0.26% and 2.24%, respectively [1] - As of September 18, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.38576 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18% from the previous week. The margin balance also rose to 16.706 billion yuan, up by 0.59% [1] - Implied volatility for several major ETFs increased, indicating rising investor expectations for future market fluctuations. The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF was 19.06%, for the CSI 300 ETF it was 19.68%, and for the ChiNext ETF it reached 38.75% [1] Economic Indicators - In the first eight months of the year, China's general public budget revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2] - Industrial value-added in August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6%. Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year [2] - Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [2] Policy Developments - Nine departments jointly released policies aimed at expanding service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures, with 8 focused on enhancing "high-quality service supply" [2] - The government plans to select 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats and models, promoting the integration of accommodation, railways, and tourism, while also enhancing the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption [2] International Context - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the current rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. This marks the first rate cut of the year and comes after a nine-month hiatus [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 231,000, marking the largest decline in nearly four years, with market expectations set at 240,000 [3] Market Outlook - Following last week's pullback, the A-share market is showing an upward trend, with optimistic market sentiment. However, the volatility index for major ETF options has generally declined, indicating potential adjustment risks [4] - Domestic CPI and PPI growth rates improved month-on-month, but year-on-year growth remains in negative territory, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [4] - The expectation of more proactive fiscal and monetary policies is anticipated to support the economy, especially in light of the Fed's confirmed rate cut [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Wantushi AI Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Wantushi AI model evaluates indices based on their potential upward probability and selects ETFs with favorable characteristics for investment[6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns a score to indices based on their upward probability. Indices with scores above 0.8 are selected[6] 2. For each selected index, the corresponding ETFs are identified[6] 3. Among these ETFs, those with a 30-day average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million RMB are retained[6] 4. Finally, the ETF with the lowest IOPV premium rate for each index is chosen[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model systematically filters ETFs based on liquidity and valuation metrics, ensuring a focus on high-quality investment options[6] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Wantushi AI Model - **Index Code: 932000 (CSI)** - Upward Probability: 93.52% - Selected ETF: 159552 (CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399006 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 93.37% - Selected ETF: 159977 (Tianhong ChiNext ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399673 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 92.49% - Selected ETF: 159682 (ChiNext 50 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399850 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 90.15% - Selected ETF: 159350 (Shenzhen 50 ETF by Fuguo)[7] - **Index Code: 000852 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 85.86% - Selected ETF: 159680 (1000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399303 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.82% - Selected ETF: 159628 (Guozheng 2000 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399293 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.03% - Selected ETF: 159814 (ChiNext Large Cap ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399330 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.81% - Selected ETF: 159901 (Shenzhen 100 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399296 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.46% - Selected ETF: 159967 (ChiNext Growth ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 000905 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 83.23% - Selected ETF: 510580 (CSI 500 ETF by E Fund)[7] - **Index Code: 000906 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 81.05% - Selected ETF: 515800 (800 ETF)[7]

- The report mentions the construction of an "industry crowding monitoring model" to track the crowding levels of Shenwan first-level industry indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels, such as utilities and building materials, and those with lower levels, like automobiles and food & beverage. It also highlights significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like real estate and utilities[6] - Another model mentioned is the "premium rate Z-score model," which is used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model employs rolling calculations to identify ETFs with potential risks of price corrections[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model evaluates crowding levels based on daily fund flows and crowding metrics, providing insights into industry trends and fund allocation changes over recent trading days[6] - The premium rate Z-score model calculates Z-scores for ETF premium rates, identifying deviations from historical averages that may signal arbitrage opportunities or risks[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model is qualitatively assessed as effective for identifying industry trends and fund allocation shifts, aiding investors in decision-making[6] - The premium rate Z-score model is qualitatively evaluated as useful for detecting arbitrage opportunities and potential risks in ETF pricing[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model highlights utilities and building materials as having high crowding levels, while automobiles and food & beverage exhibit lower levels. Real estate and utilities show significant daily crowding level changes[6] - The premium rate Z-score model identifies ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities based on deviations in premium rates, though specific Z-score values are not provided in the report[6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [7] Core Views - The ETF market experienced a slight increase in total assets by 0.1% month-on-month, while stock ETFs saw a decline of 1.5% due to a drop in the CSI 300 index [11][12] - The product structure remains relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the proportion of stock ETFs and an increase in bond ETFs [11][15] - The competitive landscape shows a slight decrease in the concentration of leading fund companies, with the top three maintaining their positions but experiencing a slight decline in market share compared to the beginning of the year [3][19] - New product issuance saw a batch of stock ETFs launched in March, raising a total of 9.9 billion yuan [4][25] - Regulatory policies continue to support the market, with a faster issuance of equity funds expected, indicating potential for market expansion [5][35] Summary by Sections Total Structure - As of the end of March 2025, the net asset value of stock ETFs totaled 282.13 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. The total net asset value of all ETFs reached 380.04 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2][12] - The proportion of stock ETFs in the total ETF market is 74%, showing a slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points [15] Competitive Landscape - The concentration of fund companies in the ETF market has slightly decreased, with CR3, CR5, and CR10 at 44.9%, 57.5%, and 77.7% respectively, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points [3][19] - The top three fund companies, including Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PB, have maintained their positions but have seen a slight decline in market share since the beginning of the year [19][24] New Product Issuance - In March, stock ETFs were issued in bulk, with a total of 9.9 billion yuan raised. This includes various ETFs from multiple fund companies focusing on free cash flow and index themes [4][25][28] Policy Dynamics - The development of equity funds is expected to accelerate, with the CSRC chairman stating that stock ETF products can now be registered quickly within five working days. The number of registered equity funds has significantly increased, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the ETF market [5][35]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) has successfully surpassed the 1 trillion yuan mark in ETF scale, indicating a significant growth in the ETF market and an optimization in investor structure [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Development - The SZSE hosted the third ETF Ecological Conference on March 21, focusing on "Industry Development in the New Pattern," with over 300 representatives from various sectors participating [2]. - The ETF market has seen steady reform and development, with the scale of ETFs in the Shenzhen market exceeding 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a positive trend in investor engagement [2][3]. - The SZSE is entering a new development stage characterized by quality enhancement, supported by favorable macro policies, industrial structure, and market development [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The SZSE aims to explore new products that cater to different risk preferences and enhance the supply of ETF products, while also addressing the entry barriers for medium to long-term capital [3]. - The conference included discussions on the iteration of core broad-based indices, the positioning of the Shenzhen 100 index, and the development of ETF options and stock index futures [3]. - The SZSE is committed to strengthening daily supervision and management of ETF products to ensure stable market operations and support the healthy development of the capital market [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The report provides detailed volatility data for various ETFs, indicating a fluctuating market environment with significant historical volatility levels observed across different time frames [10][20][28] - Implied volatility (IV) for the 50ETF, Hu300ETF, and other ETFs shows a trend of increasing IV, suggesting heightened market expectations for future volatility [11][23][54] - The skew index for the main months of options indicates a shift in market sentiment, with recent values showing an upward trend, reflecting changing investor expectations [9][18][38] Summary by Sections 50ETF - The current price is 2.723 with an implied volatility (IV) of 13.56% and historical volatility (HV) values showing a range from 5.43% to 12.91% over the past days [2][3][10] - The IV percentile for the past year is 39.10%, indicating a relatively high level of implied volatility compared to historical data [2][3] Hu300ETF - The current price is 4.005 with an IV of 14.39% and HV values ranging from 4.80% to 11.43% [11][12] - The IV percentile for the past year is 43.60%, suggesting increased market expectations for volatility [11][12] Deep300ETF - The current price is 4.106 with an IV of 14.21% and HV values from 4.40% to 11.99% [23][24] - The IV percentile for the past year is 37.10%, indicating a moderate level of implied volatility [23][24] Entrepreneur Board ETF - The current price is 2.125 with an IV of 23.06% and HV values ranging from 9.93% to 19.19% [54][55] - The IV percentile for the past year is 40.40%, reflecting significant market expectations for future volatility [54][55] Deep100ETF - The current price is 2.770 with an IV of 18.31% and HV values from 5.00% to 13.57% [60][61] - The IV percentile for the past year is 42.80%, indicating a relatively high level of implied volatility [60][61]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in implied volatility, with market sentiment turning bearish as evidenced by the decline in the underlying indices [1]. - The trading volume for options has shown significant changes, with notable increases in the trading volume of the CSI 1000 index options, which reached 291,254 contracts, an increase of 42,809 contracts [1]. - The report highlights that the implied volatility for the CSI 1000 index options is at 22.14%, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Statistics - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,669.01, down by 13.21 points, with a trading volume of 43.45 billion contracts, an increase of 1.26 billion contracts [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,927.23, down by 14.18 points, with a trading volume of 156.73 billion contracts, an increase of 11.98 billion contracts [1]. Options Market Statistics - The trading volume for the Shanghai 50 index options was 27,268 contracts, an increase of 3,066 contracts, with an open interest of 75,500 contracts, up by 1,532 contracts [1]. - The trading volume for the CSI 300 index options was 94,675 contracts, an increase of 9,018 contracts, with an open interest of 219,064 contracts, up by 4,506 contracts [1]. Volatility Statistics - The ATM implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 index options is at 13.48%, down by 0.17% [4]. - The ATM implied volatility for the CSI 300 index options is at 13.94%, up by 0.16% [4]. - The ATM implied volatility for the CSI 1000 index options is at 22.14%, down by 0.15% [4].

2025 年 3 月 11 日 股票股指期权：低开升波，隐波未随市场上行 而有明显下降，市场表现偏谨慎。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 【正文】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | | | | | | | | | | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 成交量(亿 手 ) | 成交变化 (亿手) | 当 月 合成期货 | 当月基差 | 次 月 合成期货 | 次月基差 | | 上证50指数 | 2682.22 | 13.42 | 42.19 | -8.64 | 2674.67 | -7.56 | 2674.60 | -7.62 | | 沪深300指数 | 3941.42 | 12.61 | 144.75 | -8.01 | 3929.53 | -11.88 | 3922.07 | -19.35 | | 中证1000指数 | 6551.73 | 30.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting medium- and long-term capital inflow into the capital market as a stabilizer and ballast for healthy market operation [1] Group 1: Medium- and Long-term Capital Inflow - The National People's Congress representatives are focusing on implementing policies to encourage medium- and long-term capital to enter the market, with a strong push for index investment and innovation in ETF products [1] - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights the need for deepening comprehensive reforms in capital market financing and enhancing mechanisms for stabilizing the market [1] Group 2: ETF Market Development - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been actively developing index investment and has implemented a special action plan to promote high-quality development of the ETF market, focusing on various aspects such as index compilation and product development [1][2] - By the end of 2024, the scale of ETFs in the Shenzhen market is expected to double, surpassing 1 trillion yuan, with a five-year annualized growth rate exceeding 50% [2] - The proportion of ETF scale to the circulating market value of the stock market is projected to increase from 1.9% to 3.6% by the end of 2024, with the number of ETF holders growing by 39% to 4.56 million [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has introduced various cross-market products, including the CSI A50 ETF and CSI A500 ETF, to allow investors to benefit from new productive forces [2] - Future plans include optimizing index investment, enhancing equity product development, and creating more investment options for different risk preferences [2]