2025 年 12 月 2 日 行业研究 年底旺季效应趋弱，小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市 ——新势力 11 月销量跟踪报告 要点 11 月新势力交付数据披露：1）小鹏交付量同比+18.9%/环比 -12.6%至 36,728 辆；2）蔚来交付量同比+147.9%/环比-10.2%至 36,275 辆（NIO 品牌同比 +18.7%/环比+8.9%至 18,393 辆、乐道品牌同比+132.1%/环比-32.0%至 11,794 辆）；3）理想交付量同比-31.9%/环比+4.5%至 33,181 辆。 小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市：11/20 小鹏大七座 MPV X9 超级增程车型正式 上市，上市 1 小时突破 X9 历史全天大定纪录。我们判断，小鹏通过"大电池+ 全域高压平台"打造增程技术差异化，小鹏有望通过陆续推出更多超高性价比的 "一车双能"车型覆盖更多细分市场。 作者 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA 执业证书编号：S0930515090002 021-52523876 niyj@ebscn.com 分析师：邢萍 执业证书编号：S0930525050001 021-52523838 xingping@e ...

IT之家 11 月 22 日消息，科技媒体 Golem 昨日（11 月 21 日）发布博文，报道称全德汽车俱乐部（ADAC）发布 2026 年 TÜV 报告，在评估的 110 款车型 中，特斯拉 Model Y 以高达 17.3% 的缺陷率排名垫底，创下该车型十年来的最高缺陷记录。 报告详细指出了 Model Y 的三大高发问题领域：悬架系统、刹车盘以及车辆照明。此外，去年排名倒数的特 斯拉 Model 3 今年的表现同样"令人失望"，以 13.1% 的缺陷率位列倒数第三，其可靠性问题依然严峻。 Mini Cooper SE 以仅 3.5% 的缺陷率高居榜首，成为本次评估中最可靠的电动车型。奥迪 Q4 E-Tron 和菲亚特 500e 也表现优异，缺陷率分别为 4.0% 和 4.2%，位列前茅。大众汽车的 ID.3 和 ID.4/ID.5 车型则处于排名的 中游位置。 TÜV 报告进一步分析了电动汽车普遍存在的共性问题。报告指出，悬架和刹车系统是电动汽车的通病。TÜV 协会总经理约阿希姆・布勒博士解释，一方面，驱动电池的巨大重量对车辆的悬架系统造成了持续的高负 荷；另一方面，由于动能回收系统的广泛应用，传统刹 ...

Core Insights - China's new rare earth export regulations, effective from October 9, 2025, significantly impact the global supply chain, reflecting a shift in strategic resource management and the competitive landscape in technology [1][11] - The regulations introduce a comprehensive control system that includes not only the export of raw materials but also extends to products containing Chinese rare earth elements, with a threshold of 0.1% for controlled substances [3][11] Regulatory Framework - The new regulations feature a "full-chain penetration control" approach, covering all aspects of the rare earth industry from mining to recycling [3] - Key elements include a 0.1% content threshold focusing on critical applications like high-performance magnets and semiconductor materials, and a 45-day approval cycle affecting global supply chain timelines [3][11] Global Manufacturing Impact - Rare earth elements are essential in high-end manufacturing, with significant applications in products like the F-35 fighter jet and Tesla Model 3 [4] - China dominates the rare earth market, controlling 70% of global mining, 90% of separation processing, and 93% of permanent magnet manufacturing [4] Case Studies - ASML, the sole producer of advanced EUV lithography machines, faces potential production disruptions due to the new regulations, as its products contain 0.3% dysprosium, exceeding the new threshold [5] - The U.S. military and semiconductor industries are also at risk, with rising costs and potential delays in production schedules due to increased rare earth prices [5][6] Market Reactions - The stock market has reacted variably, with Chinese rare earth companies seeing price increases while U.S. firms like Applied Materials experienced declines, indicating a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths [6][11] Strategic Responses - Countries are diversifying their supply chains in response to the new regulations, with the U.S. supporting domestic rare earth industries and forming partnerships with countries like Australia and Canada [8] - Companies are adjusting inventory and procurement strategies, with some exploring alternative technologies to reduce reliance on rare earths [8] Industry Evolution - China's rare earth industry is focusing on upgrading and transitioning towards high-end, circular, and clustered development, enhancing its competitive edge in advanced processing technologies [9] - The new regulations signify a shift in China's role in global governance, moving from rule adaptation to active participation in rule-making [11][12]

Core Insights - Xiaomi is testing its new SUV in Xinjiang, which may be more significant than the Xiaomi YU7, indicating a strategic focus on the SUV market [1][3] - The new SUV is expected to exceed 5.2 meters in length and 1.8 meters in height, confirming its classification as a large SUV with range-extended hybrid technology [3][4] - Xiaomi's strategy aims to differentiate itself in the competitive high-end hybrid SUV market, facing established players like AITO and Li Auto [6][9] Market Positioning - Xiaomi's previous electric vehicles, SU7 and YU7, have successfully competed against Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, with SU7 achieving monthly sales surpassing Model 3 [4][6] - The hybrid SUV market presents a different challenge, as it is crowded with established competitors that have already built strong brand recognition and customer loyalty [6][8] - The demand for pure electric vehicles is growing, with a significant market share shift away from hybrid models, indicating a potential challenge for Xiaomi's new SUV [15][16] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like AITO and Li Auto have established themselves with strong technology and customer appeal, making it difficult for new entrants like Xiaomi to gain traction [6][8] - Other brands are also innovating with unique features, such as Tengshi N9's exclusive technology and Lynk & Co 900's performance capabilities, intensifying competition [8][9] Consumer Preferences - The shift in consumer preference towards pure electric vehicles is driven by improved charging infrastructure and a better overall experience with electric models [18][19] - Family users are increasingly looking for vehicles that offer convenience and thoughtful design, which may be a key area for Xiaomi to focus on [14][23] Strategic Challenges - Xiaomi's new SUV must navigate three critical challenges: pricing strategy, differentiation from existing family-oriented SUVs, and ensuring competitive electric range and performance [24][27][28] - Setting a competitive price between 350,000 to 450,000 RMB could help Xiaomi avoid direct competition with premium models while appealing to mid-range consumers [24] - The SUV must also deliver superior electric range and noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) performance to meet consumer expectations and stand out in the market [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of upcoming vehicle models from various manufacturers, detailing their specifications, market segments, and expected launch dates. Group 1: Upcoming Vehicle Models - Changan Mazda's EZ-60 is set to launch on September 26, 2025, categorized as a B SUV with a price range of 119,900 to 160,900 CNY [10]. - Volvo's XC70 will also debut on September 26, 2025, classified as a C SUV, with prices ranging from 416,900 to 496,900 CNY [18]. - GAC Motor's Chuanqi Xiangwang S7 is scheduled for release on September 27, 2025, in the C SUV segment, priced between 159,800 and 179,800 CNY [26]. - FAW-Volkswagen's Golf will launch on September 27, 2025, as an A HB with a price range of 129,900 to 158,900 CNY [34]. - BYD's Fangchengbao Titanium 3 is expected to be available on September 27, 2025, as an A SUV, priced at 149,800 CNY [90]. Group 2: Specifications and Features - The Changan Mazda EZ-60 features a 1.5L range extender engine and EVT transmission, with a maximum power output of 72 kW and a torque of 190 Nm for the electric motor [10]. - The Volvo XC70 is equipped with a 1.5T plug-in hybrid engine, offering a power output of 120 kW and a torque of 255 Nm [18]. - GAC Motor's Chuanqi Xiangwang S7 utilizes a 1.5T plug-in hybrid engine, delivering 118 kW and 220 Nm of torque [26]. - FAW-Volkswagen's Golf is powered by a 1.5T engine, producing 118 kW and 250 Nm of torque [34]. - The BYD Fangchengbao Titanium 3 is a pure electric vehicle with a range of 501 km and a power output of 160 kW [90]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The vehicles are categorized into various segments, including A SUV, B SUV, C SUV, and A HB, indicating a diverse offering to cater to different consumer preferences [10][18][26][34][90]. - The pricing strategy reflects the competitive landscape, with models positioned to attract a range of buyers from budget-conscious consumers to those seeking premium features [10][18][26][34][90].

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive market in September showed a 20% month-over-month increase in customer traffic, demand, leads, orders, and delivery volumes compared to August, driven by new product launches and market demand [1][2] - Some brands like BYD experienced flat or slightly declining year-over-year sales, while brands like Geely saw growth [1][2] Key Insights - **Sales Performance**: During the double holiday period, mid-to-high-end sedans and new products performed well, with BYD's Dynasty series up 30% month-over-month and flat year-over-year, while the Ocean series grew 35% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year. Geely's Galaxy series saw a 50% month-over-month increase [1][4] - **Subsidy Impact**: The cessation of local replacement subsidies led to noticeable fluctuations in orders. The fourth batch of automotive consumption subsidies is expected to be implemented in mid-October to cover the shopping seasons of Double Eleven and Double Twelve, with expectations of year-over-year sales growth in October and November, while December may remain flat [1][5] - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory pressure has eased across brands, with BYD reducing inventory for five consecutive months. Major dealers have inventory levels of about 2.1 to 2.2 months, while smaller dealers are below 2 months. Geely and Leap Motor's inventory is also below 1.5 months. In contrast, fuel vehicle brands like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi have higher inventory levels exceeding 2 months [1][7] Market Dynamics - **Production Strategy**: Manufacturers do not have strong replenishment demands. BYD aims to assist dealers in overcoming high inventory and low profit situations. Geely maintains low inventory due to higher-than-expected sales. Overall, production strategies are moderately increasing, with strong terminal demand continuing a slow decline trend [1][8] - **Future Tax Policies**: The expected 5% refund on vehicle purchase tax for next year will significantly impact the average transaction price of new energy vehicles, estimated at around 160,000 yuan, while the impact on fuel vehicles priced below 120,000 yuan will be relatively minor. This, combined with trade-in policies, may lead to a 10% to 15% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2026 [3][9] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: Brands are focusing on capturing existing users, with companies like Huawei and Geely actively launching new models to maintain market growth. The demand for large five-seat and six-seat SUVs, especially plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, is expected to be strong in Q4 2025 [14][15][17] - **New Product Launches**: Upcoming new energy products from major players like BYD and Geely are anticipated to enhance market competitiveness, particularly in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan price range, competing with traditional fuel vehicles [19][23] Consumer Behavior - **User Preferences**: Consumers are increasingly making quick purchasing decisions due to rumors of subsidy policy changes, leading to reduced discounting and lower inventory levels across popular models [6][20] - **Market Trends**: The demand for large five-seat and six-seat models is driven by budget-conscious consumers, indicating significant potential in this market segment [26] Conclusion - The automotive industry is experiencing a dynamic shift with strong demand for new energy vehicles, particularly in the SUV segment. The upcoming policy changes and competitive strategies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant recovery and growth in its second quarter of 2025, achieving record highs in multiple key performance indicators, including sales, revenue, gross margin, and cash reserves [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [5][6]. - The company delivered 10.32 million vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241.6% [3][5]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating improved cost control and pricing power [5][6]. - Cash reserves increased by over 22.9 billion yuan to 475.7 billion yuan, providing a strong financial buffer for future operations [2][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 197,200 vehicles in the first half of 2025, nearly 3.8 times the volume from the same period last year, achieving 52% of its annual target of 380,000 vehicles [3][5]. - Despite strong sales, the product mix shows an imbalance, with sedans dominating sales while SUVs lag behind [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional appeal, moving beyond just technical specifications to include design and user experience [11][12][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The electric vehicle industry in China is entering a new phase of profitability, with competitors like Li Auto and Zeekr also reporting improved financial results [7][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning itself to achieve profitability by reducing losses significantly, with a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down from 12.8 billion yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [8][10]. - The company aims to establish a strong competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market, emphasizing both technological advancements and emotional engagement with consumers [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [6][7]. Core Views - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with significant advancements in electrification, intelligence, and connectivity. The core of electrification focuses on high-energy-density batteries and integrated electric drive systems, while intelligence emphasizes data flow applications and the rise of L2+ and L3 autonomous driving capabilities [14][15]. - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by the trends of electrification and intelligence [14][26]. Monthly Production and Sales Data - In July 2025, automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with month-on-month declines of 7.3% and 10.7%, but year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7% [2]. - For the first ten days of August 2025, retail sales of passenger cars were 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, while wholesale sales were 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [2][3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.84 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 17.23% [3][10]. - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers in July 2025 was 57.2%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in electric and intelligent sectors. Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely [4][6]. - Intelligent component suppliers: Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics [4]. - Robotics: Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [4]. - Domestic alternatives: Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Jifeng [4][6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC Motors are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 showing significant growth potential [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [81] Core Insights - Tesla's global sales in Q2 reached 384,122 units, a 13% decline from 443,956 units in the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline [3][12] - The decline is attributed to delays in the launch of more affordable models, controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk's political stance, and a significant drop in sales in the US market [3][12] - Tesla faces increasing competition from new models launched by General Motors, Volkswagen, BMW, BYD, and Xiaomi, while exploring potential in autonomous driving software and humanoid robots [3][13] - Xiaopeng Motors launched the new AI smart family SUV, Xiaopeng G7, with three versions priced between 195,800 and 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a long range of 702 km [4][14][15] Market Performance - From June 30 to July 4, the automotive sector increased by 0.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.5%, resulting in a 1.4 percentage point lag [18] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 8.2%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [18] Key Industry Data - In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.032 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.071 million units, up 25% year-on-year [6][34] - Wholesale sales for passenger vehicles in June totaled 2.473 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales at 1.259 million units, up 28% year-on-year [6][35] New Vehicle Highlights - Xiaopeng G7 features a powerful AI chip configuration, achieving an effective computing power of 2,250 TOPS, making it the highest globally [14][15] - The G7 aims to redefine the market for smart electric SUVs with its advanced AI capabilities and long-range performance [15]

Group 1 - The new regulation from the Civil Aviation Administration of China prohibits passengers from carrying power banks without 3C certification on domestic flights, while high-speed rail does not require such checks [2][3] - The 12306 customer service confirmed that power banks can be carried on high-speed trains as long as they are clearly marked and have an energy rating of no more than 100Wh [2][3] Group 2 - Beijing has announced a new AI education curriculum for primary and secondary schools, set to begin in the fall of 2025, with a minimum of 8 class hours per year [4][5] - The curriculum aims to enhance students' AI literacy and includes topics on AI awareness, application, innovation, ethics, and social responsibility [4][5][10] Group 3 - Elon Musk has reportedly abandoned his political vision of Mars colonization, as stated by investor Peter Thiel, marking 2024 as the year Musk no longer believes in the feasibility of Mars immigration [6] - Musk's xAI has completed a new funding round totaling $10 billion, which includes $5 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity financing [6][7][8] Group 4 - Huawei has announced the open-source release of its large-scale MoE model inference deployment technology, Omni-Infer, designed for high-performance enterprise-level inference capabilities [12][13] Group 5 - Meta has established the Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) to integrate its AI research and product teams, with plans to invest significantly in AI infrastructure and talent acquisition [14][15] Group 6 - The sales figures for June show significant growth for various automotive companies, with NIO delivering 24,925 vehicles, XPeng 34,611 vehicles, and BYD 382,585 vehicles, reflecting year-on-year increases [26] - Tesla has raised the price of its Model 3 Long Range version by 10,000 yuan, now priced at 285,500 yuan, while the standard version remains unchanged [18] Group 7 - The global sales of the Nintendo Switch 2 reached 5 million units in its first month, nearly doubling the first-month sales of the previous model [42][43]