2025 年 06 月 04 日 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 93 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 氧化铬绿涨价，化工安全问题多发，关注化工行业去产能--行业周报 2024 年我国氢能消费规模世界第一，星舰第九次试飞失败--行业周报 2025Q1 毛利率环比提升，纯电智驾潜力大--理想汽车-W/乘用车(02015/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 等待破局--策略月报 铝行业周报：关税压力有望进一步缓和，淡季去库表现好--行业 PPT 报告 本周北交所流动性收缩，世昌股份/志高机械上会通过--北交所行业普通报告 乘用车座椅放量+格拉默整合向上，公司 2025 年有望进入收获期--继峰股份/汽车零部件(603997/212802) 公 司深度研究 HNB 行业专题：寡头垄断优质市场，新品迭代驱动持续增长——日本 HNB 市场研究--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 研究所： 1.1、氧化铬绿涨价，化工安全问题多发，关注化工行业去产能--行业周报 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 分析师：李永磊 S03 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major new energy vehicle manufacturers, NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto, reported their Q1 financial results, highlighting Li Auto's decline in performance despite achieving ten consecutive quarters of profitability, while NIO and Xpeng continue to face losses with a goal to achieve profitability by Q4 of this year [1][14]. Financial Performance - Li Auto's total revenue for Q1 was 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 41.4% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit for Li Auto was 646.6 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 81.7% [3]. - Li Auto's average selling price per vehicle in Q1 was 278,900 yuan, down nearly 40,000 yuan compared to 318,400 yuan in Q1 2024 [8][9]. Sales Performance - Li Auto delivered 92,864 vehicles in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [5][7]. - In Q1, Li Auto's delivery volume was slightly lower than Xpeng's 94,008 vehicles, placing it second among new energy vehicle manufacturers [7]. - The sales growth of Li Auto has been outpaced by competitors, with Leap Motor taking the lead in monthly sales in April and May [7]. Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Li Auto has adjusted its sales target for 2025 from 700,000 units to 640,000 units, with a significant increase in the target for pure electric models from 50,000 to 120,000 units [10][12]. - The company plans to launch new pure electric models, i8 and i6, in July and September, respectively, which are crucial for future sales performance [12]. - Li Auto's strategy includes expanding its market presence in lower-tier cities through the "Hundred Cities Star Plan," aiming to add over 100,000 units in market volume by 2026 [12]. Competitive Landscape - NIO and Xpeng are also striving for profitability, with Xpeng reporting a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, and a reduced net loss of 660 million yuan [13]. - NIO's Q1 revenue was 12.0347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, but it reported a net loss of 6.75 billion yuan, which is a 30.2% increase in losses year-on-year [14]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting as Li Auto focuses more on pure electric vehicles while Xpeng is entering the extended-range market, indicating a convergence of strategies among the three companies [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the advancements and market presence of Li Auto in the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction [1][2]. - As of April 30, 2025, Li Auto has achieved a cumulative delivery of 1.26 million vehicles, with 20,000 units delivered in Heilongjiang province [1]. - Li Auto showcased several models at the Harbin International Economic and Trade Fair, including the 2025 special edition Li MEGA Home and Li MEGA Ultra smart versions, marking their debut in the Heilongjiang regional exhibition [2]. Group 2 - Li Auto has adopted new range extension technology solutions and proposed a high-power 5C supercharging technology, enhancing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [2]. - The company has developed a fully self-researched intelligent driving assistance system, with plans to upgrade its VLA driver model later this year to include advanced features such as voice command execution and parking assistance [2]. - Li Auto's self-developed Mind GPT model is positioned among the industry's top performers, significantly enhancing the intelligence and flexibility of its vehicle systems [2]. Group 3 - The concept of "building a new high ground for northern openness and sharing new opportunities for revitalization" reflects Heilongjiang's strategic thinking for development, emphasizing the importance of introducing advanced international technologies while promoting Chinese manufacturing [3]. - Li Auto's range extension technology is particularly suited for cold environments, addressing concerns about range anxiety during winter in Heilongjiang [3]. - The company aims to strengthen collaborations with government and educational institutions to explore new opportunities in the new energy industry and contribute to the development of high-quality talent in the sector [3].

Core Insights - The April sales data for various new energy vehicle companies shows a continued upward trend for both traditional brands and new car manufacturers, indicating a robust market performance during the holiday period [1] Traditional Brands' Performance - BYD sold over 380,100 new energy vehicles in April, with passenger car sales reaching 372,615 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The main brands, Dynasty and Ocean, contributed over 340,000 units, growing by 16.5% [2] - Geely's total sales reached 234,112 units in April, a 53% increase year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales reached 125,563 units, up 144%, accounting for 54% of total sales, marking a historical high [4] - Chery Group's total sales were 200,760 units, a 10.3% increase. New energy vehicle sales reached 61,223 units, up 85.5% [6] - Great Wall Motors' wholesale sales were 100,061 units, a 5.55% increase, with new energy vehicle sales at 28,813 units, up 28.42% [8] New Forces in the Market - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 41,039 units in April, a 172% year-on-year increase, driven by its competitive pricing strategy and new model launches [9] - XPeng Motors maintained a delivery volume of over 30,000 units, reaching 35,045 units, a 273% increase, supported by the popularity of models like MONA M03 and P7+ [11] - Li Auto delivered 33,939 new vehicles, a 31.6% increase, with a total of 126,800 units delivered in the first four months, achieving 18% of its annual target [13] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 28,000 units in April, indicating stable consumer demand, with new models expected to drive future growth [13] Other Notable Performances - GAC Aion's sales reached 28,301 units, showing year-on-year growth but a decline compared to the previous month [15] - Lantu Motors achieved sales of 10,019 units, a 150% increase, with plans to launch an upgraded model soon [17] - NIO delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, a 53% year-on-year increase, benefiting from promotional policies [17]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In April, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached approximately 1.75 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4% but a month-on-month decline of 9.8% [1] - The estimated retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 900,000 units, with a penetration rate of 51.4% [1] - The sales pattern in April showed a "front low and back high" characteristic, with a significant increase in daily retail sales in the latter half of the month due to market recovery and pre-holiday promotions [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Sales - Li Auto delivered 33,939 new vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7.5% [2] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 35,045 new vehicles in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 273% [2] - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 41,039 vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] Group 3: Major Players in the Market - BYD maintained its position as the top seller of new energy vehicles in April with sales of 380,100 units, including 347,100 units from its Dynasty and Ocean series [4] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 125,600 units in April, accounting for 54% of its total sales [4] - Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle sales were 71,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The potential for a "sales explosion" in May is indicated by over 60,000 applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies during the first four days of the May Day holiday, leading to new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan [6] - Various automotive brands are launching promotional policies to stimulate sales, with some offering substantial subsidies [6] - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show is expected to introduce numerous new energy products, which may drive further growth in the market [6]

4 月销量环比小幅下滑预计受终端需求与新老款交替影响，焕新版上市 在即、销量有望迎来向上拐点。 2025 年 05 月 05 日 理想汽车-W(02015.HK) 4 月销量符合预期，焕新版上市在即、销量拐点可期 事件：理想汽车发布公告，4 月交付量 3.4 万台，同比+32%，环比-7%。 1） 我们认为公司 4 月交付量同比提升主要系去年同期 L6 未开启大规模 交付；环比下滑预计系虽 4 月终端购车优惠及 3 年 0 息金融方案延续对销 量有拉动作用，但老款开始清库（L 系列老款部分配置、MEGA 老款下架）， 新老款交替对 4 月销量产生一定影响。 2） MEGA 焕新版销量有望持续突破：4 月 23 日，理想 MEGA Ultra 焕新版 &Home 家庭特别版正式上市，其中 Ultra 焕新版升级 ATL 全天候激光雷达、 Thor-U 芯片、副驾准零重力皇后座、21.4 英寸后舱娱乐屏等，Home 版在 此基础上升级了零重力旋转座椅、前排静音电关门等，产品力均有大幅提 升；同时随着超充站布局日益完善（截至 4 月底已布局超充站 2267 个、充 电桩 12340 个）、产品口碑逐渐积累、营销思路 ...

Core Insights - In April, BYD reported sales of 380,089 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.34% and a month-on-month increase of 0.71% [1] - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers has intensified, resembling a "Three Kingdoms" scenario, with key players being Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto [1][9] - Leap Motor achieved a monthly delivery of 41,039 units, becoming the first new energy vehicle manufacturer to surpass the 40,000 mark in monthly deliveries [3][5] Sales Performance - BYD: 380,089 units, YoY +21.34%, MoM +0.71% [2] - Geely New Energy: 125,563 units, YoY +144%, MoM +5% [2] - Leap Motor: 41,039 units, YoY +173.50%, MoM +10.63% [2] - Xpeng Motors: 35,045 units, YoY +273.10%, MoM +5.54% [2] - Li Auto: 33,939 units, YoY +31.61%, MoM -7.46% [2] - Aion: 28,301 units, YoY +0.67%, MoM -16.96% [2] - Xiaomi: over 28,000 units, previously over 29,000 in March [2][9] - NIO: 23,900 units, YoY +53.01%, MoM +58.92% [2][15] - Avita: 11,681 units, YoY +122.62%, MoM +11.51% [2] - Lantu: 10,019 units, YoY +150.29%, MoM +0.07% [2] Competitive Landscape - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers is not yet stable, with opportunities for each participant to capture more market share [14] - Leap Motor and Xpeng Motors have shown significant year-on-year growth rates, with Leap Motor at 173.50% and Xpeng Motors at 273.10% [5][7] - Li Auto's performance has been inconsistent, with a decline in month-on-month growth rates observed in recent months [9][12] Strategic Developments - NIO plans to launch nine new models across its three brands in 2025, aiming to cover various market segments [18] - Leap Motor's CEO expressed confidence in maintaining a leading position in the market [5] - Li Auto is focusing on user-centric strategies to navigate the competitive landscape [12]

一批新势力车企公布4月交付量。其中， 蔚来4月交付新车23900台，同比增长53%；小鹏汽车4月共交付新车35,045台，同比增长 273%；理想汽车4月交付新车33,939辆，同比增长31.6%；小米汽车4月交付超28000台；零跑汽车4月交付41039台，同比增长173%； 极氪科技集团4月销量同比增长18.7%；阿维塔4月销量11681台，同比增长122.6%；岚图汽车4月销量10019辆，同比增长150% 。 其中， 零跑汽车时隔3个月后再次实现单月交付量突破4万辆，位列交付榜排名第一；小鹏汽车和理想汽车当月交付均超3万辆，且小鹏连续 6个月交付量超3万 。 尽管理想将发力点落在了5月，但市场最为关注的无疑是其将于7月推出的全新纯电i系列首款车型理想i8。对理想而言，仅靠增程车型目前 已增长乏力，新品的推出或将一定程度上提升消费者对其的关注度。 1-4月，零跑、小鹏和理想累计交付量成胶着状态，最大差距不足3000辆。相对落后的蔚来时隔四个月后，再次实现单月交付量突破2万 辆，但前四个月累计交付量与前三者差距明显。 蔚来4月交付新车23,900辆，同比增长53.01%。其中，蔚来品牌交付新车19,269 ...

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Sales Performance - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 41,039 units in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 173%, with over 10,000 units of the newly launched Leap B10 delivered [1] - Xpeng Motors delivered 35,045 new vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 273%, marking the sixth consecutive month of deliveries exceeding 30,000 units [1] - Li Auto delivered 33,939 new vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7.5% compared to March [3] - NIO delivered 23,900 new vehicles in April, showing a year-on-year increase of 53% and a month-on-month increase of 58.9% [3] Group 2: Traditional Automaker Performance - SAIC-GM-Wuling reported a global sales volume of 126,455 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 69,678 units, up 83.2% [4] - Toyota's sales in April reached 65,024 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with electric models accounting for 54% of total sales [4] - Zeekr Technology Group announced April sales of 41,316 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [4] Group 3: Market Overview - The total retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in April was approximately 1.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while new energy retail is expected to reach 900,000 units, with a penetration rate of 51.4% [5] - The sales pattern in April exhibited a "front low and back high" characteristic, with the first two weeks experiencing a slowdown in year-on-year growth due to the Qingming holiday and adverse weather conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has unveiled new models, including the Li MEGA Home family special edition and upgraded versions of the Li MEGA Ultra and Li L6, at the Shanghai International Auto Show, emphasizing family-oriented features and advanced technology [1][8]. Product Features - The Li MEGA Home family special edition is priced at 559,800 yuan, while the Li MEGA Ultra is priced at 529,800 yuan, and the Li L6 ranges from 249,800 to 279,800 yuan [1]. - The Li MEGA Home features zero-gravity rotating seats in the second row, enhancing convenience for passengers, especially for children [1][5]. - The vehicle includes a floating large table that can serve multiple purposes, such as a dining table or workspace, and can be easily stored [3][5]. - The second-row seats offer significant comfort with a 122-degree and 130-degree angle for lumbar and leg support, along with voice control and massage functions [5][8]. Technology and Safety - The Li MEGA Home and Li MEGA Ultra are equipped with NVIDIA Thor-U chips, providing a computing power of 700 TOPS, enabling advanced driver assistance features [8]. - The Li L6 Pro has enhanced active safety features, including automatic emergency steering and the ability to stop from 120 km/h in wet conditions [10][12]. - The Li L6 smart version includes ATL all-weather LiDAR as standard, improving its safety capabilities to match higher-end models [12]. Market Positioning - Li Auto's CEO highlighted the increasing user satisfaction and sales of the Li MEGA, positioning it as a product that aligns with the company's mission of creating a "mobile home" for families [12]. - The Li L6 has achieved nearly 250,000 deliveries within a year, indicating strong market demand among young families [12].