1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the pulp futures price generally fluctuated slightly stronger, with both positions and trading volume increasing, but the spot price remained weak, and the basis of needle and broadleaf pulp weakened [4]. - Affected by the increase in oil prices and shipping freight due to the US - Iran war, the cost of pulp exported from Northern Europe to China increased by about $20 per ton, but it has not affected the long - term contract FOB price in March 2026. Two large - scale broadleaf pulp mills in Brazil and Uruguay issued regular maintenance notices this week, and foreign broadleaf pulp suppliers still have the intention to support prices [4]. - This week, the port inventory of needle pulp continued to accumulate, while the broadleaf pulp slightly decreased. There is no obvious positive news for needle pulp. Notably, a large number of new warehouse receipts were added this week, mainly Ural needle pulp, and the overall pulp warehouse receipts changed from tight to loose [4]. - This week, the prices of cultural paper and household paper were basically stable, while the price of white cardboard slightly decreased. The new round of price increase letters issued by paper mills may be difficult to implement. In February 2026, cultural paper slightly accumulated inventory, and white cardboard significantly accumulated inventory [4]. - This week, the US - Iran war continued to drive up the prices of chemical products, and the war tends to be long - term. Although the current impact on pulp prices is mainly the driving of commodity sentiment, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether it will be transmitted to the pulp FOB price through shipping freight and other means in the future [4]. - Pulp shows a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation". An inverse arbitrage strategy can be considered. There is no clear driving factor for unilateral trading, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Price performance: The pulp futures price fluctuated slightly stronger, with increased positions and trading volume, while the spot price was weak, and the basis of needle and broadleaf pulp weakened [4]. - Supply side: The cost of pulp exported from Northern Europe to China increased by about $20 per ton due to the US - Iran war, but it has not affected the March 2026 long - term contract FOB price. Two large - scale broadleaf pulp mills in Brazil and Uruguay issued maintenance notices, and foreign suppliers still have the intention to support prices [4]. - Inventory side: Needle pulp in port inventory continued to accumulate, broadleaf pulp slightly decreased, and a large number of new warehouse receipts were added, mainly Ural needle pulp [4]. - Demand side: The prices of cultural paper and household paper were stable, white cardboard price decreased slightly, and the new price increase letters of paper mills may be difficult to implement. In February 2026, cultural paper slightly accumulated inventory, and white cardboard significantly accumulated inventory [4]. - Macro aspect: The US - Iran war drove up chemical product prices, and the war may be long - term. It mainly affects pulp prices through commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to its impact on the FOB price through shipping freight [4]. - Strategy: Consider an inverse arbitrage strategy, and wait and see in the short term for unilateral trading [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Pulp and Paper Industry Chain Price Data - Futures market: The report presents data on pulp futures contract closing prices, total positions, weekly trading volume, and delivery volume [6][7]. - Spot market: The price of broadleaf pulp was stable, and the basis quotation of needle pulp decreased [15]. - FOB price: In March, the FOB price of needle pulp was flat, and the price of broadleaf pulp increased [28]. - Wood chip price: The report shows the market prices of wood chips in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions, as well as the monthly average import price of Chinese wood chips [38][40][43]. - Finished paper price: The price of white cardboard slightly decreased [45]. 3.3 Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Needle pulp import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of needle pulp increased [56]. - Broadleaf pulp import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of broadleaf pulp decreased [70]. - South American pulp export volume: In February 2026, the export volume to China decreased slightly month - on - month [78]. - W20 chemical pulp shipment volume: In January 2026, the shipment volume of W20 chemical pulp to China decreased [86]. - Domestic pulp production: In February 2026, the domestic pulp production decreased [98]. - Wood chip import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of broadleaf wood chips increased [106]. - Domestic wood chip procurement volume: In February 2026, the domestic wood chip procurement volume decreased [119]. - Overseas pulp mill inventory: In January 2026, the inventory of needle pulp mills increased significantly [127]. - Chinese pulp port inventory: Needle pulp continued to accumulate inventory, and broadleaf pulp slightly decreased [134]. - Pulp futures warehouse receipt structure: A large number of new pulp warehouse receipts were registered this week [148]. - European pulp port inventory: Pulp inventory decreased month - on - month [158]. - Chinese wood pulp paper production: In February 2026, the production decreased [170]. - Chinese paper industry inventory: In January - February 2025, the inventory of finished paper increased [181]. - Chinese wood pulp paper mill inventory: Except for household paper, the inventory of other products increased [194]. - Chinese wood pulp paper social inventory: The inventory of household paper decreased, and the inventory of white cardboard increased [202]. - Chinese finished paper import volume: The report shows the import volume data of various types of finished paper [209]. - Chinese finished paper export volume: The report shows the export volume data of various types of finished paper [217]. - Chinese chemical pulp supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand difference of chemical pulp from 2020 to February 2026 [226]. 3.4 Part Four: Pulp Spread Data - Pulp price spread: It shows the price spreads between different types of pulp, such as silver star - Russian needle, silver star - broadleaf, and Russian needle - broadleaf, and their distribution maps [229][237]. - Pulp monthly spread: The 5 - 9 spread weakened [242]. - Pulp basis: The basis of needle pulp weakened [253]. - Global major pulp mill profit: The profit of needle pulp mills decreased significantly [265]. - Chinese pulp import profit: The import profit of needle pulp decreased [277]. - Chinese finished paper production profit: It shows the production profits of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, household paper, white cardboard, and the operating profit and ton - paper profit of the paper industry [285][291].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with corrugated paper prices rising by 70 CNY/ton and white cardboard prices slightly increasing by 3 CNY/ton. Major paper companies are collaborating to raise prices, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][5] - The inventory of pulp has increased to 154,300 tons, with a closing price of 5,260 CNY/ton, which supports cost stability for paper companies [2][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower the import costs of pulp, contributing to an improvement in industry conditions. The operating rates of paper companies are recovering, and inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [2][4] - The current phase is critical for profitability recovery, suggesting a focus on "price elasticity and cost benefits" for investment strategies. Short-term tracking of price increases for white cardboard and white board paper is recommended, along with monitoring the recovery of demand [2][27] Summary by Sections Industry News - The paper industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies issuing price increase notices and a heightened focus from institutions. However, demand remains under pressure, making it difficult to predict a full industry turnaround [3] - In January and February, major price increases were announced for white cardboard and household paper, with a unified increase of 200 CNY/ton for white cardboard and 100 CNY/ton for household paper, effective from March 1 [3][5] Price Trends - The recent price increase cycle in the paper industry has seen major companies raise prices across various product categories, with increases ranging from 50 CNY/ton to 300 CNY/ton [5][9] - The price of white cardboard is currently around 4,560 CNY/ton, while the price of corrugated paper is approximately 3,460 CNY/ton, reflecting a stable market with some upward movement [18] Company Developments - The successful operation of the third plant at Chenming's Zhanjiang base marks a significant step in capacity recovery, with an annual production capacity of 190,000 tons for cultural paper [22] - Wuzhou Special Paper Industry announced a major expansion project in Jiangxi, with an investment of approximately 5.44 billion CNY, aiming to produce high-end information paper and other products [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by both supply - and demand - side factors. The market anticipates a tightening of coniferous pulp supply in 2026, while downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with limited enthusiasm for high - price pulp purchases. Attention should be paid to the demand stabilization and port inventory digestion. After demand stabilizes, a bullish approach can be considered [2][31] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 rebounded and then fell sharply. The market had already priced in the expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply, but weak downstream demand limited the follow - up increase in actual orders. Currently, the strong performance of the sector has led to a slight rebound in pulp futures [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 December Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but 2026 Pulp Import Expected to Tighten - China has a high external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In December 2025, China imported 3113000 tons of pulp, with an average unit price of $578.03/ton. The coniferous pulp import volume in December was 895900 tons, up 9.27% month - on - month and 11.51% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import volume and amount increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year. Due to geopolitical factors, imports from North America decreased, but those from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay increased. However, large pulp mills are shutting down or reducing capacity, and the coniferous pulp supply in 2026 is expected to tighten significantly [12][13] 3.2.2 European Port Inventory Declined, Overseas Demand May Gradually Recover - In November 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% year - on - year. The European wood pulp port inventory has been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the US has passed. With the Fed in a rate - cut cycle, overseas wood pulp demand may slowly recover. Against the backdrop of the European papermaking industry's merger wave, pulp export quotes are firm. Some large pulp mills will reduce broad - leaf pulp production in 2026, and due to the shortage of wood chips, the price of bleached broad - leaf wood pulp in Asia has been raised [17] 3.2.3 European Inventory Declined, Export Quotes Continued to Rise - Since August, the import price of broad - leaf pulp has rebounded. In January, the export quotes of some pulp products increased. Due to high import dependence, the import cost strongly supports domestic prices. However, the downstream finished paper price has difficulty following the increase, and the spot market price of imported wood pulp is weak. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5381 yuan/ton, down 3.08% week - on - week, and that of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4636 yuan/ton, down 1.00% week - on - week [20][21] 3.2.4 Cost Increase Further Suppressed the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises - The rising prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have increased the production costs of downstream paper enterprises, but the increase in base paper prices is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - price raw materials. As of January 22, 2026, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was below the break - even point. The operating rates of different paper types showed different trends, and overall, downstream paper mills were focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement [24][25] 3.2.5 The Inventory of Major Domestic Ports Increased and Remained at a High Level - As of January 22, 2026, the total pulp inventory in several major ports was 2019800 tons, up 3.37% week - on - week. Generally, the inventory increases during the Chinese New Year due to reduced purchasing demand. However, the postponed Chinese New Year in 2026 may lead to a moderate recovery in domestic demand, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the 2025 import data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in amount compared to the previous year. In 2026, the coniferous pulp supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, the operating rates of different paper types vary, and downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction. The market has priced in the supply - tightening expectation, but weak demand has limited the price increase. The domestic port inventory is high, and the postponed Chinese New Year may lead to a moderate demand recovery. Attention should be paid to demand stabilization and inventory digestion, and a bullish approach can be considered after demand stabilizes [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The import wood pulp market is expected to experience a strong performance before the Spring Festival in early 2026, driven by cost pressures and limited supply growth, but will likely face downward pressure post-holiday due to weak demand and low profitability in the paper industry [3][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the import wood pulp market showed a general upward trend, particularly for broadleaf pulp, driven by cost pressures from external markets [3][15]. - As of December 31, 2025, the average price for imported broadleaf pulp was 4627.63 CNY/ton, up 385.26 CNY/ton (9.08%) from September 30, 2025 [4][15]. - The average price for imported needle pulp was 5577.32 CNY/ton, up 37.86 CNY/ton (0.68%), while other pulp types showed smaller increases [4][15]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply growth rate for wood pulp is expected to slow down in Q1 2026, with domestic production increasing by only 1.26% and imports projected to decline by 6.34% [7][19]. - The overall wood pulp supply is expected to grow by 3.41% in Q1 2026, but this growth is significantly reduced compared to previous periods [19]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The total demand for wood pulp is anticipated to decrease by approximately 10.36% in Q1 2026, primarily due to new production capacities coming online late in the quarter and maintenance shutdowns during the Spring Festival [8][20]. - The profitability of the paper industry is mixed, with cultural paper companies adopting discount strategies, while white card and life paper sectors may see slight improvements in margins due to seasonal demand [20]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market for imported wood pulp is expected to show a pattern of rising prices followed by a decline, influenced by seasonal factors and cost increases from external markets [10][21]. - Specific price forecasts for Q1 2026 include needle pulp at 5582.00 CNY/ton, broadleaf pulp at 4643.33 CNY/ton, and chemical pulp at 3855.33 CNY/ton, with varying adjustments from Q4 2025 [21].

Group 1 - The main contract for pulp futures showed weak fluctuations, with a minimum drop to 5498.00 yuan and a current price of 5510.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.75% [1] - The pulp futures market is currently experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with domestic pulp manufacturers maintaining normal production levels and port inventory continuing to decrease [2] - The demand side shows mixed trends in downstream procurement, with white card paper increasing by 1.3% and double glue paper decreasing by 0.2% [2] Group 2 - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 4.4% decline [2] - The SP2605 contract is expected to face short-term support at 5450 and resistance around 5750, with a focus on risk control [2] - The import volume of bleached softwood pulp in November 2025 was 725,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for printing paper is experiencing a mixed trend, with the main contract for coated paper futures showing a decline of 2.51% during the trading session [1] - The current market for coated printing paper is characterized by a weak downward trend, with institutions providing various analyses on future market performance [2] - The supply side shows a slight increase in imports of bleached softwood pulp, with a total import volume of 712.2 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2] Group 2 - The demand side indicates that paper mills are operating at low profit margins, leading to a focus on purchasing pulp as needed, with overall operating rates for downstream demand showing weakness [2] - Inventory levels for pulp at major ports in China have decreased by 3.3% to 2.101 million tons, continuing a trend of slight inventory reduction over the past two weeks [2] - The market sentiment remains weak, with expectations of stable pricing from paper mills and potential price increases in early January, although short-term price movements are likely to remain volatile [3]

Core Insights - The paper industry in Rizhao is experiencing significant growth, driven by companies like Asia Pacific Senbo and Huatai Paper, which are transforming the region into a billion-dollar industrial cluster [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Developments - Asia Pacific Senbo has evolved from a single product manufacturer to a comprehensive industrial park, producing various products including dissolving pulp, cultural paper, and life paper, with an annual production capacity of 235 million tons of wood pulp and 60 million tons of white cardboard [2] - Huatai Paper has successfully developed high-transparency stretch paper, which has replaced imported products and is now widely used in packaging for food and chemicals, with a total production capacity of 250,000 tons [2][3] - The introduction of advanced technologies, such as the DCS automatic control system and QCS quality detection system, has enhanced production efficiency and product quality in Asia Pacific Senbo's facilities [1] Group 2: Industry Growth and Impact - The Rizhao paper industry has created a complete supply chain, benefiting over 1,500 companies in Shandong province and generating thousands of jobs [3] - The Rizhao integrated pulp and paper industry cluster has been recognized in the provincial "Top Ten Industries" list, indicating strong future growth potential [3] - Projections for 2024 indicate that Rizhao will produce 2.6 million tons of pulp and 1.6 million tons of paper products, with a 13.94% increase in output value for the 35 major pulp and paper enterprises [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - arbitrage in the pulp market has reached a phased position, and attention should be paid to seasonal stabilization. After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [96][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.418 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.9% decline. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline [6][7]. - On September 3, 2025, the No. 1 line of the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation [7]. - On September 8, 2025, the household paper production line of the seventh factory in the Shouguang base of Chenming Paper started operation, and the base will fully resume full - load production capacity [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 660 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 77.42%; the basis of Russian Needle was 180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year increase of 410.34%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63% [15]. - On September 12, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 288 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27%; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 66.67% [15][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,470 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% and a year - on - year increase of 19.51%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 23.75% [27]. - On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 46.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 3 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46.22% and a year - on - year increase of 99.50% [30]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in the Shandong market were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [32]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird in the Shandong market were 4,180 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,170 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [37]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported natural pulp and chemi - thermomechanical pulp such as Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China were generally stable, and the purchase price of poplar wood chips of Champion Paper continued to decline [42]. - The supply of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this week. On September 11, 2025, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 133,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19.82% [46][48]. - In July 2025, the port inventory in Europe decreased slightly month - on - month; in June, the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was lower year - on - year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year; in July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month; in August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Chile to China decreased month - on - month [55]. - In July 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, and Uruguay to China continued to be at a year - on - year high and increased month - on - month; in August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguay to China increased significantly month - on - month [57]. - In July 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall, with coniferous pulp decreasing by 4.64% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp decreasing by 5.84% month - on - month [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - For offset paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production increased slightly, supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and the market was bearish [65]. - For coated paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production changed little, supply was abundant, consumption was difficult to improve, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [69]. - For white cardboard, both supply and demand increased, paper mills' production and sales were relatively balanced, prices increased, and the market improved [73]. - For household paper, the market price was flat, demand was weak, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and the industry's operating rate remained low [77]. - In July 2025, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp weakened seasonally month - on - month. The year - on - year growth of cultural office and daily necessities was significant, while the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines and the output of dairy products decreased year - on - year [81]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 245,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.53% [84]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a narrow de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory decreased [93]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased for the second consecutive month, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% to 2.653 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 24.108 million tons, still a 5.0% year - on - year increase. The supply remained abundant. The shipment volume from Brazil to China in August was 647,300 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 21.5% but a year - on - year increase of 55.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 20.3%. The foreign market quotation was firm, and the cost - side support was strengthened [96]. - Demand: The performance of downstream demand in the peak season was disappointing, lacking traditional peak - season characteristics. In general, the terminal consumption capacity of the paper industry did not improve, and the demand side had a "buy - on - dips" mentality, providing limited support to the pulp market [96]. - Viewpoint: After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [97]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 on dips; Inter - period: Consider converting the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage to a positive arbitrage; Inter - variety: No strategy [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The new round of imported pulp quotations remained stable, the de - stocking speed at ports was still slow, the downstream base paper enterprises successively issued price increase letters but the implementation effect was average, and the fundamentals changed little. Pulp maintained a low - level range - bound adjustment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5,228 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,218 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.19%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its June quotations: Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, which were flat compared with the previous period [7] - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [7] - The downstream market had a clear demand for improving profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders was limited, and the raw material procurement mentality was cautious [7] 2. Industry News - On June 5, the single - machine commissioning of the PM2 white cardboard project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper was launched. This project was designed by China Haisum Changsha Company and was currently in the single - machine commissioning stage. The coated board production line BM2 and the bleached chemi - thermomechanical pulp (BCTMP) production line were supplied by Valmet and were expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2025 [8] - Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd., established in 2020, was a large - scale forest - pulp - paper integrated pulp and paper enterprise. Its main products included chemical pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, white cardboard, cultural paper, and household paper. The company covered an area of more than 300 hectares and had more than 3,000 employees [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including cross - period spreads, import softwood pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources were mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][14][16]