国泰君安期货表示，趋势偏弱。在我们在上周日报中提示多单止盈后，盘面大幅回落，当前盘面重新回 到低估值区间，考虑到当前整体持仓仍然以做市商为主，我们认为当前盘面的大幅下跌仍然主要来源于 资金行为的驱动，若从基本面原因来看，利空驱动或主要来源于以下三点：1)湛江晨鸣或复工部分文化 纸产能；2)12月纸厂报价预计平盘，1月份出版提货结束之后，纸厂产能释放，现货价格或倾向于下 跌，盘面抢先交易预期；3)浆价下跌对于纸价形成拖累。站在当前的维度来看，盘面的快速下跌给出了 做多的性价比，但是短期来看，在晨鸣复产带来的供应压力提高，需求后续面临转弱的情况下，缺乏利 多驱动亦是无法回避的问题，价格或仍然维持弱势，等待双边操作机会。 新世纪期货指出，上一工作日现货市场价格趋稳。双胶纸开工预期稳定，供应面变化不大。出版招标基 本结束，订单有望放量，有利于纸企出货。规模纸企挺价意愿强，月初报价可能上调。价格有望小幅上 涨，预计短期价格维持震荡。 12月8日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约开盘报4102.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，胶版印刷纸主力最高触及4102.00元，下方探低4028 ...

Core Insights - The paper industry in Rizhao is experiencing significant growth, driven by companies like Asia Pacific Senbo and Huatai Paper, which are transforming the region into a billion-dollar industrial cluster [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Developments - Asia Pacific Senbo has evolved from a single product manufacturer to a comprehensive industrial park, producing various products including dissolving pulp, cultural paper, and life paper, with an annual production capacity of 235 million tons of wood pulp and 60 million tons of white cardboard [2] - Huatai Paper has successfully developed high-transparency stretch paper, which has replaced imported products and is now widely used in packaging for food and chemicals, with a total production capacity of 250,000 tons [2][3] - The introduction of advanced technologies, such as the DCS automatic control system and QCS quality detection system, has enhanced production efficiency and product quality in Asia Pacific Senbo's facilities [1] Group 2: Industry Growth and Impact - The Rizhao paper industry has created a complete supply chain, benefiting over 1,500 companies in Shandong province and generating thousands of jobs [3] - The Rizhao integrated pulp and paper industry cluster has been recognized in the provincial "Top Ten Industries" list, indicating strong future growth potential [3] - Projections for 2024 indicate that Rizhao will produce 2.6 million tons of pulp and 1.6 million tons of paper products, with a 13.94% increase in output value for the 35 major pulp and paper enterprises [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - arbitrage in the pulp market has reached a phased position, and attention should be paid to seasonal stabilization. After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [96][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.418 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.9% decline. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline [6][7]. - On September 3, 2025, the No. 1 line of the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation [7]. - On September 8, 2025, the household paper production line of the seventh factory in the Shouguang base of Chenming Paper started operation, and the base will fully resume full - load production capacity [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 660 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 77.42%; the basis of Russian Needle was 180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year increase of 410.34%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63% [15]. - On September 12, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 288 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27%; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 66.67% [15][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,470 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% and a year - on - year increase of 19.51%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 23.75% [27]. - On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 46.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 3 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46.22% and a year - on - year increase of 99.50% [30]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in the Shandong market were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [32]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird in the Shandong market were 4,180 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,170 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [37]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported natural pulp and chemi - thermomechanical pulp such as Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China were generally stable, and the purchase price of poplar wood chips of Champion Paper continued to decline [42]. - The supply of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this week. On September 11, 2025, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 133,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19.82% [46][48]. - In July 2025, the port inventory in Europe decreased slightly month - on - month; in June, the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was lower year - on - year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year; in July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month; in August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Chile to China decreased month - on - month [55]. - In July 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, and Uruguay to China continued to be at a year - on - year high and increased month - on - month; in August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguay to China increased significantly month - on - month [57]. - In July 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall, with coniferous pulp decreasing by 4.64% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp decreasing by 5.84% month - on - month [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - For offset paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production increased slightly, supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and the market was bearish [65]. - For coated paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production changed little, supply was abundant, consumption was difficult to improve, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [69]. - For white cardboard, both supply and demand increased, paper mills' production and sales were relatively balanced, prices increased, and the market improved [73]. - For household paper, the market price was flat, demand was weak, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and the industry's operating rate remained low [77]. - In July 2025, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp weakened seasonally month - on - month. The year - on - year growth of cultural office and daily necessities was significant, while the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines and the output of dairy products decreased year - on - year [81]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 245,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.53% [84]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a narrow de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory decreased [93]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased for the second consecutive month, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% to 2.653 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 24.108 million tons, still a 5.0% year - on - year increase. The supply remained abundant. The shipment volume from Brazil to China in August was 647,300 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 21.5% but a year - on - year increase of 55.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 20.3%. The foreign market quotation was firm, and the cost - side support was strengthened [96]. - Demand: The performance of downstream demand in the peak season was disappointing, lacking traditional peak - season characteristics. In general, the terminal consumption capacity of the paper industry did not improve, and the demand side had a "buy - on - dips" mentality, providing limited support to the pulp market [96]. - Viewpoint: After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [97]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 on dips; Inter - period: Consider converting the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage to a positive arbitrage; Inter - variety: No strategy [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The new round of imported pulp quotations remained stable, the de - stocking speed at ports was still slow, the downstream base paper enterprises successively issued price increase letters but the implementation effect was average, and the fundamentals changed little. Pulp maintained a low - level range - bound adjustment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5,228 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,218 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.19%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its June quotations: Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, which were flat compared with the previous period [7] - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [7] - The downstream market had a clear demand for improving profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders was limited, and the raw material procurement mentality was cautious [7] 2. Industry News - On June 5, the single - machine commissioning of the PM2 white cardboard project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper was launched. This project was designed by China Haisum Changsha Company and was currently in the single - machine commissioning stage. The coated board production line BM2 and the bleached chemi - thermomechanical pulp (BCTMP) production line were supplied by Valmet and were expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2025 [8] - Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd., established in 2020, was a large - scale forest - pulp - paper integrated pulp and paper enterprise. Its main products included chemical pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, white cardboard, cultural paper, and household paper. The company covered an area of more than 300 hectares and had more than 3,000 employees [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including cross - period spreads, import softwood pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources were mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][14][16]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

Core Insights - The global pulp market is experiencing changes in supply, inventory, and pricing dynamics, with a notable increase in import volumes and a decrease in inventory levels [1] Supply and Import Dynamics - In January 2024, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major producing countries increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with softwood pulp rising by 5.2% and hardwood pulp by 6.9% [1] - Domestic pulp imports totaled 6.39 million tons in January-February 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of March 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.046 million tons, a decrease of 99,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Domestic futures inventory stood at 374,904 tons, down by 19,083 tons week-on-week [1] - In Europe, the inventory of bleached softwood pulp was 247,700 tons in January 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 13,900 tons [1] Pricing Trends - Arauco announced price increases for softwood pulp by $10/ton to $825/ton and hardwood pulp by $20/ton to $610/ton in March 2025 [1] - Current spot prices for softwood pulp in Shandong are at 6,530 RMB/ton, while hardwood pulp is priced at 4,680 RMB/ton [1] - The pulp basis is at 694 RMB, down by 18 from the previous week, indicating a stabilization at lower levels [1] Market Outlook - The downstream paper industry maintains high production levels, but companies are facing weakened operational conditions and declining profitability [1] - Future market conditions are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic policies, with potential price stabilization opportunities due to overseas price support and positive macro expectations [1] - Monitoring of market consumption and macroeconomic risks is essential for future assessments [1]