国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国纸浆常熟港库存46.4万吨，较上周期下降1.8万吨，环比下降3.7%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存141.8万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨0.2%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年9月11日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.8万吨，较上周下降0.5万吨，环比下降7.9%。本周期高栏港库存呈现去库的趋势。 CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The new round of imported pulp quotations remained stable, the de - stocking speed at ports was still slow, the downstream base paper enterprises successively issued price increase letters but the implementation effect was average, and the fundamentals changed little. Pulp maintained a low - level range - bound adjustment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5,228 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,218 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.19%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its June quotations: Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, which were flat compared with the previous period [7] - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [7] - The downstream market had a clear demand for improving profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders was limited, and the raw material procurement mentality was cautious [7] 2. Industry News - On June 5, the single - machine commissioning of the PM2 white cardboard project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper was launched. This project was designed by China Haisum Changsha Company and was currently in the single - machine commissioning stage. The coated board production line BM2 and the bleached chemi - thermomechanical pulp (BCTMP) production line were supplied by Valmet and were expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2025 [8] - Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd., established in 2020, was a large - scale forest - pulp - paper integrated pulp and paper enterprise. Its main products included chemical pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, white cardboard, cultural paper, and household paper. The company covered an area of more than 300 hectares and had more than 3,000 employees [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including cross - period spreads, import softwood pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources were mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][14][16]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

Core Insights - The global pulp market is experiencing changes in supply, inventory, and pricing dynamics, with a notable increase in import volumes and a decrease in inventory levels [1] Supply and Import Dynamics - In January 2024, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major producing countries increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with softwood pulp rising by 5.2% and hardwood pulp by 6.9% [1] - Domestic pulp imports totaled 6.39 million tons in January-February 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of March 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.046 million tons, a decrease of 99,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Domestic futures inventory stood at 374,904 tons, down by 19,083 tons week-on-week [1] - In Europe, the inventory of bleached softwood pulp was 247,700 tons in January 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 13,900 tons [1] Pricing Trends - Arauco announced price increases for softwood pulp by $10/ton to $825/ton and hardwood pulp by $20/ton to $610/ton in March 2025 [1] - Current spot prices for softwood pulp in Shandong are at 6,530 RMB/ton, while hardwood pulp is priced at 4,680 RMB/ton [1] - The pulp basis is at 694 RMB, down by 18 from the previous week, indicating a stabilization at lower levels [1] Market Outlook - The downstream paper industry maintains high production levels, but companies are facing weakened operational conditions and declining profitability [1] - Future market conditions are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic policies, with potential price stabilization opportunities due to overseas price support and positive macro expectations [1] - Monitoring of market consumption and macroeconomic risks is essential for future assessments [1]