编辑丨具身智能之心 点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 具身智能 之心 "公众号 作者丨 Haochen Shi等 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 >> 点击进入→ 具身智能之心 技术交流群 更多干货，欢迎加入国内首个具身智能全栈学习社区 ： 具身智能之心知识星球 (戳我) ， 这里包含所有你想要的。 研究背景与核心挑战 类人机器人传统移动方法多聚焦于腿部步态，但自然双足动物（包括人类）在复杂环境中会主动利用手、膝盖、肘部等肢体建立额外接触点，以获得更强的稳定性 和支撑力。在低间隙椅子下方、及膝高度的墙壁/平台、陡峭楼梯等场景中，仅依赖脚部的移动要么不可行，要么需要剧烈动作，而全身协同的爬行、攀爬等策略能 更高效地克服障碍。 当前类人机器人全身移动面临 两大核心挑战 ： 为应对这些挑战，斯坦福大学研究团队提出一套融合物理接地关键帧动画与强化学习的分层框架，通过九种核心运动技能的链结（figure1），实现机器人在极端复 杂地形中的稳定移动。 核心方法 系统的核心架构包含四大组件，形成"关键帧生成→策略训练→技能选择→分层执行"的完整闭环（figure2）。 1. 复杂环境导航需解决"接触丰富"的运动规划与鲁棒控制 ...

人工智能正在发生一场根本性转向——从数字世界走向物理世界，据大摩全球最新机器人模型显示，这一转变将催生一个规模高达25万亿美元的全球机器人硬 件市场。随着AI技术从处理"比特与字节"的知识经济扩展至操控"原子与光子"的物理经济，一场机器人领域的"寒武纪大爆发"正在到来。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利全球具身AI团队 在最新发布的《机器人年鉴》中预测，基准情形下，全球机器人硬件销售额将从2025年的约1000亿美元激增 至2030年的5000亿美元，2040年达到9万亿美元，并在2050年攀升至25万亿美元。这一预测仅涵盖硬件销售，若加上软件服务、维护及供应链相关收入，市 场规模可能成倍增长。 在这一变革中，中国展现出明显的领先优势，尤其体现在制造能力、稀土材料控制以及政策支持等多个维度。随着中国企业加速机器人量产和应用落地，全球 市场格局正发生深刻变化。摩根士丹利认为，中国的领先地位有望在未来十年持续扩大。 五大因素催化，全球机器人市场迎来指数级增长 大摩 通过其全球机器人模型（GROM）预测，到2050年全球将销售14亿台机器人，运行中的机器人总数将达到65亿台。 机器人形态将高度多样化，包括工业机器人、服 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a fundamental shift in artificial intelligence from the digital realm to the physical world, predicting a global robotics hardware market worth up to $25 trillion by 2050, driven by advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Market Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley's global robotics model forecasts that global robotics hardware sales will surge from approximately $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040 and $25 trillion by 2050 [1][4]. - By 2050, it is expected that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total of 6.5 billion operational robots [4]. Diverse Robot Forms - The types of robots will be highly diverse, including industrial robots, service robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and household robots, applicable across various sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and space exploration [6]. Component Demand Surge - The explosive growth of the robotics industry will create significant opportunities for upstream component suppliers. By 2050, the demand for key components will include 5.7 billion cameras, 27 billion motors, 41 billion bearings, and 1.25 million ExaFLOPS of edge computing capacity, among others [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The demand surge will present major business opportunities for suppliers of motors, bearings, rare earth materials, cameras, sensors, AI chips, and batteries. Small drones and low-altitude robotic systems are identified as the most promising investment areas due to factors such as ease of navigation, government prioritization following lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maturation of regulatory frameworks [9]. China's Competitive Advantage - China is highlighted as having a clear competitive edge in the robotics sector, particularly in manufacturing capabilities, control of rare earth materials, and policy support. The country is expected to maintain and expand its leading position over the next decade [3][14]. - By 2025, investments in the robotics and drone sectors in China are projected to exceed $30 billion, with AI-related financing reaching $260 billion, indicating China's significant role in the global market [14]. Market Share and Future Outlook - By 2050, China is anticipated to account for approximately 26% of global robot sales, with even higher shares in industrial robots and drones. Morgan Stanley notes that China holds a dominant position in the humanoid robot supply chain, particularly in the "body" segment [15]. - Manufacturing capability is identified as the core competitive advantage in the era of embodied intelligence, contrasting with the previous focus on software and algorithms in the digital AI era [15].

人工智能正在发生一场根本性转向——从数字世界走向物理世界，据大摩全球最新机器人模型显示，这一转变将催生一个规模高达25万亿美元的 全球机器人硬件市场。随着AI技术从处理"比特与字节"的知识经济扩展至操控"原子与光子"的物理经济，一场机器人领域的"寒武纪大爆发"正在 到来。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利全球具身AI团队在最新发布的《机器人年鉴》中预测，基准情形下，全球机器人硬件销售额将从2025年的约1000 亿美元激增至2030年的5000亿美元，2040年达到9万亿美元，并在2050年攀升至25万亿美元。这一预测仅涵盖硬件销售，若加上软件服务、维护 及供应链相关收入，市场规模可能成倍增长。 在这一变革中，中国展现出明显的领先优势，尤其体现在制造能力、稀土材料控制以及政策支持等多个维度。随着中国企业加速机器人量产和应 用落地，全球市场格局正发生深刻变化。摩根士丹利认为，中国的领先地位有望在未来十年持续扩大。 五大因素催化，全球机器人市场迎来指数级增长 大摩通过其全球机器人模型（GROM）预测，到2050年全球将销售14亿台机器人，运行中的机器人总数将达到65亿台。 机器人形态将高度多样化，包括工业机器人、服务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of Elon Musk's unprecedented compensation plan at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, highlighting the implications for the company's future and the mixed reactions from shareholders and the public [4][10][61]. Group 1: Compensation Plan Approval - 75% of shareholders voted in favor of Musk's compensation plan, which could grant him up to 423.7 million shares over the next decade, equating to approximately $275 million per day [4][9]. - The plan requires Tesla to achieve a market value of $8.5 trillion, sell 1 million humanoid robots, and secure 10 million paid subscriptions for its autonomous driving software [10][9]. - The approval was widely anticipated, with prediction markets indicating a 94% to 91% probability of passage [18][17]. Group 2: Support from Key Shareholders - Major institutional investors, including Morgan Stanley's Counterpoint Global and Charles Schwab, expressed support for the plan, emphasizing alignment with shareholder interests [22][24]. - Baron Capital and Florida's public pension fund also backed the proposal, citing Tesla's ambitious goals and Musk's critical role in the company's success [26][27]. Group 3: Opposition and Criticism - Despite the support, there was significant opposition, including protests against Musk's compensation, highlighting concerns over income inequality and the plan's scale [34][39]. - Notable dissenters included Norway's sovereign wealth fund and CalPERS, who raised issues regarding the board's independence and the plan's potential to concentrate power [40][48]. - Critics argued that the compensation structure could dilute shareholder value and was excessively high compared to typical executive pay [49][50]. Group 4: Public and Media Reaction - The debate surrounding Musk's compensation intensified on social media, with supporters arguing that achieving the plan's goals would significantly increase Tesla's value [54][55]. - The article notes a shift in sentiment from some investment firms, such as Charles Schwab, which ultimately decided to support the plan after facing pressure from retail investors [60][61].

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has evolved from public conflict to a more amicable connection, which may have implications for future political and financial landscapes, particularly regarding upcoming elections [3][5]. Group 1: Relationship Dynamics - Trump described his relationship with Musk as "good" and noted that they have maintained contact since attending a memorial event together [3][5]. - Musk's previous political actions were criticized by Trump, who referred to them as a "very stupid" moment in Musk's life, indicating a shift in their dynamic [5]. - The two have reconciled after a period of tension, which could influence the political landscape for the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election [5]. Group 2: Business Impact - A recent study indicated that Musk's partisan political behavior negatively impacted Tesla's sales, with potential growth of 67% to 83% in the U.S. market being stunted due to alienation of core Democratic customers [3][7]. - Since May, Musk has shifted focus back to his companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, distancing himself from political engagements [7][8]. - Tesla's stock price has rebounded significantly, reaching $460.55, more than doubling from a low of $220 earlier in the year, reflecting investor confidence in Musk's leadership [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations and ending a two-quarter decline [8]. - Despite revenue growth, net profit decreased by 37% due to pricing strategies and significant investments in AI and other R&D projects [8].

Core Insights - Elon Musk's recent political low profile is attributed to the backlash from his previous high-profile political involvement, which negatively impacted Tesla's sales [1][5] - The relationship between Musk and Trump has evolved from conflict to a more amicable connection, potentially influencing future elections [3][4] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Musk was the largest individual donor to Trump's 2024 campaign, contributing $277 million and establishing a Super PAC [3] - Tensions escalated between Musk and Trump due to political disagreements, particularly regarding the "Big and Beautiful" legislation [3][4] - Their relationship saw a turning point during a memorial event in September, where they appeared together, indicating a potential reconciliation [3][4] Group 2: Business Implications - A recent study from Yale indicates that Musk's partisan political behavior could have led to a 67% to 83% increase in Tesla's sales, translating to an additional 1 to 1.26 million vehicles sold from October 2022 to April 2025 [1][5] - Tesla's sales have been adversely affected as environmentally conscious Democratic buyers have distanced themselves from the brand, leading to a 17% to 22% increase in competitors' electric and hybrid vehicle sales [5] - Since May, Musk has shifted focus back to his companies, including SpaceX and Neuralink, which may positively influence public sentiment towards Tesla [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Tesla's stock price has rebounded to $460.55, more than doubling from its low of $220 earlier this year, with a market capitalization of $1.44 trillion [7] - The company's Q3 revenue reached $28.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations, although net profit fell by 37% due to pricing strategies and investments in AI [7]

Core Insights - UBS reports that artificial intelligence (AI) is driving significant advancements in autonomous systems, including humanoid robots, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and robotaxis, transforming traditional industries such as aerospace, agriculture, smart glasses, and healthcare [1][17] - The emergence of visual-language-action (VLA) models represents a transformative turning point for robots and ADAS, enabling systems to convert sensory inputs and natural language commands directly into actions [1][17] Market Opportunities - UBS estimates that market opportunities driven by embodied AI verticals will reach $402 billion, with the highest growth potential in humanoid robots, ADAS, robotaxis, industrial automation, agricultural technology, smart glasses, robotic surgery, and drones [2][19] - The total addressable market (TAM) for humanoid robots is projected to reach $40 billion by 2035, while the TAM for automation hardware is expected to hit $100 billion, and ADAS (including fully autonomous driving) is forecasted to reach $88 billion [2][6] Growth Projections - The global TAM for robot taxis is estimated at $40 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% over the next decade [2] - The agricultural technology, robotic surgery, electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTOL), and smart glasses sectors are expected to grow at a CAGR of 23%, reaching a TAM of $134 billion by 2035 [2] Technological Advancements - AI advancements are catalyzing the development of autonomous systems, with significant breakthroughs in processing power and AI capabilities [5] - The integration of electrification is driving the revenue pool for private car ADAS, projected to reach $88 billion by 2035, primarily fueled by China's 50% penetration rate of electric vehicles [6] Humanoid Robots - By 2035, the number of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 2 million units, with a corresponding TAM of $40 billion, and by 2050, this could grow to over 300 million units, with a TAM of $1.4 to $1.7 trillion [7] - Humanoid robots are anticipated to operate independently and will be utilized in various sectors, including manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare [7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for autonomous systems is characterized by overlapping hardware and software dependencies, necessitating a regulatory framework to maximize commercialization [5][8] - The demand for high-performance chips, power management chips, motion control chips, and communication ICs is expected to rise due to the application of VLA technology in ADAS and humanoid robots [8][9] Semiconductor Opportunities - The semiconductor industry is poised to benefit significantly from the computational demands of humanoid robots, with each high-end humanoid robot requiring approximately $1,400 worth of semiconductors [9] Smart Glasses Market - The smart glasses market is expected to enter a new phase by 2025, with an estimated market size of $1 billion, projected to grow to $60 billion by 2035, driven by technological maturity and increased consumer interest [12] Agricultural Innovations - AI and autonomous machinery are essential for increasing agricultural productivity, with the need to boost food production by 60% by 2050 to meet global demand [13] Robotic Surgery Advancements - The use of robotic surgery is expanding across various medical fields, with a projected shipment of 6,200 new medical robots in 2024, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the automotive industry has become the largest variable in the global industrial robot market, with China's domestic market share surpassing foreign suppliers for the first time [14][11][3] - In 2024, global industrial robot installations are projected to reach 542,000 units, marking a more than twofold increase over the past decade, with Asia accounting for 74% of new deployments [3][11][13] - China leads the global market with 295,000 new installations in 2024, representing 54% of the global total, while other major markets like Japan, the US, South Korea, and Germany experience declines [3][11][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the industrial robot market in China has seen a significant increase in domestic manufacturers, with their market share rising from approximately 28% a decade ago to 57% [14][11] - The application of industrial robots has diversified, with the general industry now accounting for 53% of installations in 2024, up from 36% in 2014, compensating for the weakness in the automotive sector [4][11] - The total number of operational industrial robots globally is expected to reach 4.664 million units in 2024, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth [3][11] Group 3 - The report forecasts that the global industrial robot market will continue to grow, with an expected increase of 6% in installations to 575,000 units by 2025, and projections to exceed 700,000 units by 2028 [3][30] - The service robot market is also experiencing growth, with new installations of specialized service robots reaching 199,000 units in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [32][38] - The medical robot segment shows remarkable growth, with an increase of 91% in new installations, totaling 16,700 units in 2024 [32][41]

Group 1 - The article discusses the establishment of the China Engineering Technology Development Strategic Industry Research Institute and its initiatives to promote innovation among young scholars in the field of engineering technology, particularly focusing on humanoid robots [1] - The second session of the "Young Scholars Salon" will be held in 2025, focusing on the theme of "Exploring the Infinite Possibilities of Humanoid Robots," aiming to foster innovative ideas and collaboration among young talents [1] - The event will feature expert evaluations and guidance, with the goal of identifying and recommending outstanding young scholars to relevant departments and venture capital institutions [1] Group 2 - The event is scheduled from August 22 to August 27, 2025, at Beihang University, with participation limited to scholars aged 35 and below [2] - Activities will include keynote reports from senior experts, team presentations, and in-depth expert feedback to inspire innovation [2] - Participants are required to attend the entire event, and travel expenses will be self-funded [3] Group 3 - Contact information for event inquiries is provided, including two designated teachers for assistance [4] - Additional attachments related to the event, including participant profiles and a detailed agenda, are mentioned [5]