■主持人：于颖 本报记者 ■嘉宾：沈开艳 上海社会科学院经济研究所所长、研究员 劳帼龄 上海财经大学中国式现代化研究院特聘研究员、电子商务研究中心主任 张伊娜 复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院教授、消费市场大数据实验室（上海）主任 主持人："十五五"规划建议提出"坚持扩大内需这个战略基点"，刚刚召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持 内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在2026年经济工作重点任务之首。如何理解从"扩大内需"到"内需主 导"的这种战略升级？ （来源：上观新闻） 【编者按】"大国经济的优势就是内部可循环。"党的二十届四中全会对扩大内需作出战略部署，刚刚召 开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年经济工作的重点任务之首，并明 确提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划""优化'两新'政策实施"等一系列长效 举措。 扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。在内外部发展环境日趋严 峻复杂的大背景下，如何深刻认识扩大内需的战略基点地位？如何推进消费结构升级，以消费和投资的 相互促进扩大国内需求？本报约请三位学者研讨交流。 沈开艳：从"扩大内需"到"内需 ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo showcased the growing vitality and attractiveness of the Chinese market, emphasizing the need for a balance between economic strength and external responsibilities to become a core engine of global economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Size and Structure - The U.S. personal consumption expenditure is projected to reach approximately $19.8 trillion in 2024, making it the largest in the world; however, its high service consumption ratio, nearly 70%, particularly in healthcare and finance, poses burdens on the public [1] - A truly influential consumer market requires a synergistic development of goods and services to meet diverse consumer needs and reflect a balanced economic operation [1] Group 2: Openness and Global Integration - The U.S. has been a net importer, significantly impacting global supply chains; however, unilateral protectionist policies, such as increased tariffs, challenge global economic growth and deviate from the responsibilities of a major consumer market [2] - In contrast, China is expanding its openness, providing opportunities for global enterprises, with a cumulative import of consumer goods amounting to 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and a projected inbound tourist spending of $94.2 billion in 2024, a 77.8% increase [2] Group 3: Innovation and Sustainability - Innovation is a key driver for maintaining market leadership, with China leading in digital consumption, projected online retail sales reaching 15.5 trillion yuan in 2024, and mobile payment transactions remaining globally dominant [3] - The "National Trend" phenomenon reflects cultural confidence, enhancing the local market's appeal and combining cultural self-assurance with commercial innovation [3] - The largest consumer market must guide sustainable consumption, promoting green and circular consumption models, as seen in China's trade-in policies that stimulate consumption while advancing environmental goals [3] Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is poised to become the largest consumer market globally, but the competition will focus on development quality rather than just scale [4] - The largest consumer market must balance openness and protection, innovation and regulation, and growth and sustainability to ensure stable expectations for global consumers, enabling them to not only "buy" but also "buy well" [4]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded in Shanghai, showcasing a record number of participating companies, highlighting the vitality and attractiveness of the Chinese market [2] - The event prompted deeper reflections on the responsibilities of the world's largest consumer market, emphasizing the need for a balance between economic strength and structural integrity [2] Market Size and Structure - In 2024, the United States is projected to have personal consumption expenditures of approximately $19.8 trillion, the largest globally; however, its consumption structure is heavily skewed towards services, which account for nearly 70% [2] - The over-reliance on certain service sectors, such as healthcare and finance, poses a burden on American consumers, suggesting that the true impact of the U.S. market may be overstated from a global trade perspective [2] - A truly influential consumer market should see a synergistic development of goods and services to meet diverse consumer needs and reflect a balanced economic operation [2] Openness and Global Integration - The largest consumer market should act as a "gathering place" for global goods rather than a "protectionist" entity, with the U.S. being a significant net importer influencing global supply chains [3] - The U.S. has leveraged its market power in trade negotiations, but unilateral protectionist policies, such as recent tariff increases, have disrupted global supply chains and economic growth [3] - In contrast, China is expanding its openness, providing opportunities for global enterprises, with a cumulative import of consumer goods amounting to 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3] - China is also enhancing its international cooperation through economic partnership agreements and tax exemptions for products from 53 African countries, with the Republic of Congo being the first beneficiary [3] Innovation and Market Dynamics - Innovation is a key driver for maintaining the leading position of the consumer market, particularly in digital consumption, with online retail sales in China expected to reach 15.5 trillion yuan in 2024 [4] - The "Guochao" phenomenon reflects cultural confidence, transforming the domestic market into a unique cultural consumption hub, enhancing market efficiency and consumer choice [4] - China's policies promoting sustainable consumption, such as the trade-in program for old products, not only stimulate consumption but also advance the adoption of green and intelligent products [5] Inclusive Growth and Market Responsibility - The growth of the consumer market should benefit a broader population, promoting inclusive growth, as evidenced by the rapid rise of rural consumption outpacing urban growth [5] - The market must also set standards for fair competition and consumer protection to ensure quality and equity in growth [5] - With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is poised to become the largest consumer market by total scale, but the focus should also be on the quality of development [5] - The largest consumer market must balance openness and protection, innovation and regulation, as well as growth and sustainability, to create stable expectations for global consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Wang Yi, Chief Economist of Great Wall Securities, emphasizes the need to enhance consumer spending through improved income distribution, social security systems, and stabilization of the real estate and capital markets [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Market Insights - The "old-for-new" policy has been significantly strengthened this year, leading to a notable increase in consumer spending [3]. - In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the overall growth rate for 2024 [3]. - Retail sales of green and smart products have surged, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment (26.9%), cultural and office supplies (21.7%), home appliances (19.3%), and furniture (18.1%) [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Sustained Growth - To boost consumption, it is essential to improve the social security system, as the current low consumption ratio and high savings rate are linked to inadequate social security coverage [4]. - Optimizing the income redistribution mechanism is crucial, as the current income distribution shows a low share for households, which contributes to insufficient domestic demand [4]. - The supply side should also be developed to promote consumption, including new consumption models such as the ice and snow economy, silver economy, and cruise economy [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The stability of the real estate market is critical as it holds a significant portion of residents' wealth, and various measures have been implemented to stabilize the market [5]. - In March, 24 out of 70 major cities saw an increase in new residential property prices, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - Wang Yi suggests lifting certain purchase restrictions in major cities and lowering interest rates to enhance market confidence [6]. Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting opportunities for growth [7]. - Future market performance will depend on trends in industries like artificial intelligence and the effectiveness of domestic demand stimulation [7].