张尧浠：美联储暗示年内2次降息、金价回踩支撑仍是看涨机会 上交易日周三(6月18日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，收复周二触底回升幅度，但走势仍运行在中轨上方，且下方还有众多均线支撑，以及看涨趋势良好， 基本面也具降息前景，经济也偏向减缓，地缘局势长期不定等，故此，后市仍有再度走强的前景，下方各均线支撑位置，也是可入场看涨的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3390.09美元/盎司，日内整体依然还是处于20多美金的区间内连续震荡走盘，于午间先行录得日内高点3399.69美元，并于美 盘尾进一步回落录得日内低点3362.53美元，最后有所止跌，收于3369.20美元，操作也是来回多空捡钱的行情，日振幅37.16美元，收跌21.49美元，跌幅 0.63%。 其美元指数，日图走势早盘虽遭遇中轨阻力，但近日回升动力转强，5-10日均线转为支撑，附图指标信号也维持看涨信号发展，短期有望继续走强，而会 对金价产生压力，另外周图也偏向筑底回升的倾向，也会利空金价； 不过，日图及周图仍处于200日及200周均线阻力下方，前景仍然偏弱，月图走势依然处于之前2年震荡区间的下方，布林带也开口向下，故此后市反弹空 间有限，金价也将在震荡调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased, maintaining interest rate expectations, while gold prices show potential for bullish adjustments despite recent declines [1][3][5] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 16, international gold opened high but faced resistance, closing lower at $3,385.05 per ounce, down $48.69 or 1.42% from the previous close of $3,433.74 [1][3] - The price fluctuated between $3,410 and $3,420 during the European session, and dropped to a low of $3,382.71 during the US session, indicating a bearish trend [1][3] - The market is expected to experience a rebound after testing support levels, with key resistance at $3,500 and potential targets of $3,545 and $3,700 if broken [1][3][12] Group 2: Market Influences - The easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking by traders after reaching an 8-week high contributed to the decline in gold prices [3][5] - The US dollar index showed weakness, which initially supported gold prices, but the market's focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3][5] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as US retail sales and import price index, are anticipated to favor gold prices, although there is a risk of a pullback [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting potential for continued bullish trends despite recent volatility [10][12] - Weekly charts show that while gold faced resistance, the 5-10 week moving averages provide bullish support, indicating opportunities for re-entry into long positions [12][14] - Daily charts reflect a bearish reversal pattern, but numerous support levels suggest potential for rebounds, with specific price levels to watch for trading decisions [14]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a pullback due to resistance at the $3500 level, with expectations of a potential rebound after testing support levels [1][3][8]. Price Movement - On May 27, gold opened at $3346.13 per ounce, reached a high of $3349.64, and then fell to a low of $3285.47 before closing at $3300.50, marking a daily decline of $45.63 or 1.36% [1]. - The price is expected to maintain a range between $2900 and $3500, with potential upward movement if it breaks through the downward trend line [10][12]. Market Influences - The rebound of the US dollar index has created downward pressure on gold prices, while easing trade tensions have also contributed to this trend [3][8]. - Positive signals regarding tariffs from the Trump administration and potential new sanctions against Russia have created mixed influences on gold prices [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the May average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthening bullish momentum [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold is near the downward trend pressure around $3500, with a focus on whether it can maintain above recent lows for further bullish opportunities [14]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3290 and $3272, while resistance levels are at $3320 and $3340 [15]. - For silver, support is noted at $33.10 and $32.90, with resistance at $33.60 and $33.80 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

张尧浠：多空因素反复交错、金价维持宽幅震荡待走强 黄金市场上周：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收涨，形态上，有一定的见顶看空预期，但也相对于之前遇阻3500美元回落的倒垂线的看空压力，也有一定的止跌 形态，再加上目前各向上排列的看涨支撑持稳向上，这则暗示后市将偏向区间震荡走盘为主，之后则再度选择方向。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3239.69美元/盎司，便即刻录得当周低点3237.44美元，之后连续两日强势拉升走强转阳，但在周三高开录得当周高点 3437.84美元后，直接回落走弱，并又连续两日强势回落，收复前两日大部分涨幅，周五虽有近一步走低，但最终震荡回升收涨，减弱回落压力，令周线 收于3328.85美元，周振幅200.4美元，收涨89.16美元，涨幅2.75%。 影响上，先是受到技术止跌信号的买盘推动，以及美国拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求，并可能对进口药品征收关税，再加上亚洲买家 节后重返黄金市场，印巴局势升级，美国3月贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的1405亿美元等，助力金价持续走强拉升，冲击3400美元上方，录得当周高点； 之后，美联储决议保持利率不变，政策声明及鲍威尔讲话又偏向鹰派，市场对贸易谈判持乐 ...

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3365.22美元/盎司，早盘先行走强，于10点时段触及日内高点3414.41美元，之后连续回落转跌，延续到亚盘尾触及3320美元 支撑后，欧盘整体反弹回升，但动力有限； 美盘开盘后，遇阻3360美元阻力，并再度走低，回落力度加大，于盘尾触及日内低点3288.63美元，之后有所触底回升，最终收于3305.77美元，日振幅 125.78美元，收跌59.45美元，跌幅1.77%。 但由于受到凌晨鲍威尔偏鹰派的言论观点，而限制了金价多头，并且，日内特朗普宣布与英国达成"突破性"贸易协议，美商务部长也表示，关注下一个大 国，希望与一个来自亚洲的大国达成贸易协议，中俄发布关于全球战略稳定的联合声明等，令市场贸易乐观情绪升温，再加上英国央行降息25个基点，打 压欧元，提振美元，推动美元指数日内止跌回升持续走强，金价则就此空头力量占据优势，最终回落收跌。 展望今日周五(5月9日)：国际黄金开盘先行止跌回升运行，但技术上面临一定的短期均线压力，附图指标也有所偏弱，有继续回落的风险； 另外，美元指数开盘先行走强，日图走势已重回中轨和短期均线上方，布林线也向上扩散延伸，附图指标维持多头信号，暗示后市有望 ...

张尧浠：关税避险再起买需、金价如期止跌反弹跟进看涨 上交易日周一(5月5日)：国际黄金如期受到倒垂止跌信号和中轨线支撑等看涨预期，反弹回升走强收阳，并收线在扩展线和短期均线之上，暗示多头力量 转强，且也未反弹到位，那么后市则有望继续延续反弹，再度冲击3500美元或其上方。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3239.69美元/盎司，便先行录得日内低点3237.44美元，之后则转反弹回升走强，虽自午间及美盘初两度遇阻回撤超20美金， 但多头力量仍然强势，在连续上破5-10日短期均线阻力后，表现持稳，最终仍继续走强，于盘尾录得日内高点3337.30美元，最终收于3333.62美元，日振 幅99.86美元，收涨93.93美元，涨幅2.9%。 影响上，一方面，受到上周五收取的倒垂止跌信号，而产生买盘看涨入场，另一方面，美国拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求，特朗普将 在未来两周内宣布医药关税措施，令市场对于贸易及通胀的担忧升温，再度提升黄金的避险需求，令其反弹走强。 展望今日周二(5月6日)：国际黄金亚市早盘多头力量有所减弱，受到技术横向阻力的压制，以及昨日美盘公布的美国4月ISM非制造业PMI超预期的影响， 令 ...

张尧浠：晚间迎众多重磅数据、金价震荡仍有走强机会 上交易日周二(4月29日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，继续维持近期的震荡走盘格局，但仍收线在扩展线及其区间震荡支撑上方，以及布林带仍向上延伸， 基本面前景也仍利好金价，暗示后市在震荡调整之后，仍有再度走强的预期。 影响上，美元指数有所止跌收涨，对金价产生压力，但美债10年期收益率则继续走低下行，对金价产生一定支撑，最终继续触底回升收线。 另外，特朗普放松汽车关税政策，以及技术阻力因素而打压金价，不过，美国务卿再度暗示退出俄乌和谈，普京坚持要求控制乌克兰的4个地区，巴基斯 坦官员：印度计划在未来24-36小时内对巴基斯坦发动袭击，增强了一些避险情绪，再加上美国劳动力数据疲软、消费者信心低迷等数据利好金价，最终 再度推动金价触底回升收线。 展望今日周三(4月30日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线压力，有所遇阻运行，但走势预计也是震荡，且后市仍有再度走强的前景； 美元指数，日图走势维持震荡走盘，并处于中轨下方，所以，虽然附图指标维持看涨信号发展，但在震荡调整之后，也有再度走低的风险，而会对金价造 成利好支撑，另外，月图级别仍然是运行在2年多以来的震荡区间支撑下方，附图指标也维持 ...