Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has reported changes in various futures warehouse receipts as of August 20, indicating fluctuations in inventory levels across multiple commodities [1]. Inventory Changes - Styrene futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 637 contracts [1] - Soybean No. 1 futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 12,397 contracts [1] - Soybean No. 2 futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 contracts to 2,300 contracts [1] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,233 contracts to 82,031 contracts [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts to 13,298 contracts [1] - Soybean meal futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 contracts [1] - Corn starch futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,450 contracts [1] - Coking coal futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 contracts [1] - Palm oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 16 contracts to 1,404 contracts [1] - Egg futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 contracts [1] - Corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,706 contracts to 110,775 contracts [1] - Iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased by 500 contracts to 2,000 contracts [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts increased by 20 contracts to 2,092 contracts [1] - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts decreased by 40 contracts to 7,684 contracts [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 13,940 contracts [1] - Soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,310 contracts [1] - Coking futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 820 contracts [1] - Live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 contracts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth in China's futures market, with June's trading volume reaching 740 million contracts and a trading value of 5.279 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1] - For the first half of 2023, the cumulative trading volume in the futures market was 4.076 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 33.973 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1] - The top three futures products by trading value include gold, crude oil, and silver from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leads with canola oil, PTA, and methanol [1] Group 2 - The financial futures options trading volume at the China Financial Futures Exchange reached 18.379 million contracts, accounting for 2.49% of the national market, with a trading value of 1.494 trillion yuan, representing 28.29% of the national market [1] - As of June 2025, there will be a total of 148 listed futures and options products in China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the first cash-settled futures in China's commodity futures market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The introduction of these monthly average price futures will provide more diversified and refined pricing information and risk management tools, enhancing the resilience of supply chains and industrial chains in China [1] - The futures will be based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of corresponding physical delivery futures, which will help stabilize long-term procurement prices for the industry [2] Group 2: Industry Context - Polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene are the three major universal resin products globally, with China being a leading producer and consumer, with projected domestic production in 2024 of 27.91 million tons, 23.44 million tons, and 34.76 million tons respectively [2] - The industry is experiencing increased demand for stable long-term pricing mechanisms due to frequent price fluctuations influenced by domestic and international market conditions [2] Group 3: Risk Management - The contract design of the monthly average price futures addresses the industry's need for risk management while considering market risk prevention, with a holding limit set at one-fifth of the corresponding physical delivery futures [2] - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance the pricing fairness and rationality, ensuring smooth operation post-launch [2] Group 4: Business Strategy - Companies are increasingly looking to use monthly average prices as a reference for trade pricing, but previously lacked adequate risk management tools, making the new futures a significant addition to their trading strategies [3] - The listing of these futures will provide a more direct and precise risk management tool for average price trading, improving overall risk management strategies and operational stability for companies [3]

Core Insights - The futures market in China experienced significant growth in July, with a trading volume of 1.059 billion contracts and a turnover of 71.31 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [1] - Cumulative trading volume from January to July reached 5.135 billion contracts and a turnover of 411.04 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [1] - The total open interest in the futures market at the end of July increased by 3.98% compared to the previous month [1] Trading Volume and Value by Exchange - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) saw a year-on-year increase in trading volume and turnover of 13.23% and 2.19% respectively in July [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) reported a significant increase in trading volume and turnover of 58.46% and 23.26% respectively [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) experienced growth of 33.24% in trading volume and 33.18% in turnover [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) had a notable increase in trading volume and turnover of 35.11% and 64.79% respectively [1] - The Guangxi Futures Exchange (GFE) reported extraordinary growth with trading volume and turnover increasing by 513.26% and 597.73% respectively [1] Leading Futures Products - The top three futures products by turnover on the SHFE were gold, silver, and crude oil [1] - The leading products on the ZCE included soda ash, glass, and caustic soda [1] - The DCE's top products were coking coal, palm oil, and soybean meal [1] - The GFE's leading products were polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [1] Market Activity and Trends - The overall activity in the futures market increased, with significant contributions from various sectors, particularly black metals and building materials, which saw trading volume growth of 97.6% and turnover growth of 94.6% month-on-month [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector also showed strong performance with trading volume and turnover increasing by 70.5% and 52.8% respectively [3] - The energy and chemical sectors reported month-on-month trading volume growth of 21.7% and 22.1%, with turnover growth of 8.5% and 23.8% respectively [3] - Agricultural products, particularly feed and soft commodities, also contributed positively with trading volume growth of 21.8% and 32.8% respectively [3] - The financial futures market followed the recovery of the A-shares, with trading volume and turnover increasing by 36.9% and 38.2% respectively [3] Price Trends and Future Outlook - The price levels in the domestic commodity futures market generally increased in July, influenced by the "anti-involution" policy which reshaped supply and demand expectations [4] - Analysts expect that the "anti-involution" policy and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September will continue to drive the commodity market [4] - The trading volume in August is projected to remain high, estimated between 900 million to 1 billion contracts, with turnover around 60 trillion yuan [4]

Core Insights - The futures market in China experienced significant growth in July, with trading volume reaching 1.059 billion contracts and trading value at 7.131 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [1] - Cumulative trading volume for the first seven months of the year was 5.135 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 41.104 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [1] - The total open interest in the futures market at the end of July increased by 3.98% compared to the previous month [1] Trading Performance by Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) saw a year-on-year increase in trading volume and value of 13.23% and 2.19% respectively [1] - Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) reported a trading volume and value increase of 33.24% and 33.18% respectively [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) experienced a significant rise in trading volume and value, with increases of 58.46% and 23.26% respectively [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) had a notable increase in trading volume and value of 35.11% and 64.79% respectively [1] - Guangxi Futures Exchange (GFE) reported extraordinary growth, with trading volume and value increasing by 513.26% and 597.73% respectively [1] Leading Products by Trading Volume and Value - The top three products by trading volume on SHFE were rebar futures, silver futures, and hot-rolled coil futures [2] - ZCE's leading products included glass futures, soda ash futures, and PTA futures [2] - DCE's top products were coking coal futures, soybean meal futures, and PVC futures [2] - CFFEX's leading products by trading value were CSI 1000 index futures, 30-year treasury bond futures, and CSI 300 index futures [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall activity in the futures market increased in July, providing strong support for financial market stability and economic development [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, particularly in black metals and building materials, which saw trading volume increase by 97.6% and trading value by 94.6% month-on-month [2] - Analysts expect continued high trading activity in August, with projected trading volume between 900 million to 1 billion contracts and trading value around 6 trillion yuan [3] - The "anti-involution" policy and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are anticipated to be key factors influencing commodity prices [3]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The State Council has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing its importance for long-term development and the well-being of families [10][11][12] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference highlighted the rapid development of AI technologies and the need for policy support and talent cultivation to enhance product safety and reliability [12][13] - The People's Bank of China and other departments released guidelines to strengthen financial services for rural reforms, aiming to promote comprehensive rural revitalization [24][27] Group 2: International Policy Developments - The 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting resulted in a joint declaration on climate change, showcasing the commitment to cooperation in addressing global challenges [18][19][20] - The upcoming third round of trade talks between China and the US is set to take place in Sweden, focusing on mutual economic concerns and cooperation [21][22][23] Group 3: Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a slight upward trend, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices rising by 3.28% and 2.76% respectively, influenced by positive economic growth and policy encouragement for long-term capital inflow [25][26] - The MSCI China A-share index increased by 2.07% during the last week of July, reflecting a stable market environment [25] - The premium index for AH shares has decreased to below 124 points, indicating a shift in market dynamics [25]

Group 1 - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, discussed the current flood and drought situation and plans to gradually implement free preschool education as a significant public welfare initiative [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue for the first half of the year exceeded 11.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3%. Tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need for precise risk control in key areas of the capital market and to crack down on illegal activities in private equity and securities [4] Group 2 - The CSRC is seeking public opinions on revising the "Corporate Governance Standards for Listed Companies," focusing on improving management systems and mechanisms for listed companies [4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange received approval for the registration of futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, with the CSRC ensuring a smooth launch [4] - The insurance industry association announced that the current preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, with adjustments made to the maximum preset interest rates for various insurance products [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the launch of a new communication platform to enhance interaction between listed issuers and the exchange, with a trial version set to be released in the second half of 2025 [4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced trading limits for non-futures company members on certain futures contracts starting from July 29, 2025 [5] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange set a trading limit for non-futures company members on lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from July 28, 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. EIA data showed an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and a decrease in crude oil inventories. Refinery开工率 was high, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. With the ongoing tariff war and lower - than - expected demand, prices are in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are mainly oscillating following the cost - end crude oil. The LU - FU spread has widened, but there is medium - term supply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil, and short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies is not yet apparent. Short - term supply will decrease, and the market will oscillate narrowly following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The production and sales of polyester yarn are weak, and some devices are starting up or shutting down. The demand - side inventory pressure is significant, and some products are in a loss state [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased in the first half of 2025. The domestic natural rubber inventory increased slightly, and the production increase is being realized [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian devices has recovered, and the arrival volume has increased. Downstream profits have improved, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The enterprise's operating rate has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 8 - month contract closed at $66.38/barrel, down $0.14 or 0.21%. Brent 9 - month contract closed at $68.52/barrel, down $0.19 or 0.28%. SC2508 closed at 517.20 yuan/barrel. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while crude oil inventories decreased. The market was disappointed with demand, and prices oscillated weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 2880 yuan/ton, and the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.47% to 3630 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The market oscillated following crude oil, and short positions can be considered for the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt fell 0.22% to 3623 yuan/ton. The supply will decrease in the short term, and the market will oscillate following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4706 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. EG2509 closed at 4351 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The production and sales of polyester yarn were weak, and prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 105 yuan/ton to 14500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 110 yuan/ton to 12490 yuan/ton. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Rubber prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2382 yuan/ton. Iranian device load recovered, and prices oscillated [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawing was 7020 - 7160 yuan/ton. Supply changes were limited, and prices oscillated narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the upward rebound space was limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA data showed that last week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, and crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels [9]. - Refineries were operating at a high rate, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. After the July 4th holiday, gasoline demand decreased, and the supply of gasoline products decreased by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][34][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][65] - **Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [76]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [78]

Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has announced an optimization of the registration time limits for warehouse receipts of polypropylene, linear low-density polyethylene, and polyvinyl chloride futures, effective from June 1, to enhance convenience for industry clients participating in delivery [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The registration time limit for warehouse receipts of polyvinyl chloride has been relaxed to align with that of polypropylene and linear low-density polyethylene [2]. - The new unified registration time limit for all three futures products, regardless of whether they are domestically or internationally produced, is set at a maximum of 180 calendar days from the production date [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The adjustment addresses the practical needs of the spot market and industry clients, alleviating pressure on goods turnover and expanding the deliverable volume, thereby reducing delivery risks [2]. - The DCE aims to continuously track the operational development of related futures and spot markets, adhering to the principle of serving the real economy and innovating in line with market demands [2].