1. 高盛：中国股市慢牛正在形成，预计关键指数到2027年底有约30%上涨空间 高盛称，中国股市将进入更为持久的上涨阶段，预计关键指数到2027年底将有约30%的上涨空间，主要 由12%的盈利趋势增长和5%-10%的进一步重估潜力推动。 2. 路透调查：预计美联储今年将再降息两次，2026年利率路径高度不确定 路透社于10月15日至21日对经济学家进行的一项调查显示，美联储料将在下周和12月各降息25个基点。 然而，对于明年年底的利率水平，经济学家们仍存在严重分歧。一个月前，经济学家们预计今年仅有一 次降息。但这一新预测紧随美联储政策制定者近期转向支持进一步降息的预期变化。在117位经济学家 中，除两位外，其余115位均预测美联储将在10月29日再次降息25个基点，使利率降至3.75%-4.00%。有 两位经济学家预计10月降息25基点，12月降息50基点。对于12月再次降息，持此看法的经济学家占比降 至71%。金融市场交易员的预期更为坚定，利率期货合约已完全定价了今年还将有两次降息。 3. 交易商City Index：黄金从高位急剧回落，分析师预计有资金将入场抄底 周二，贵金属价格从空前高点暴跌，随后在亚洲 ...

持续加码新兴产业检测能力，低空检测、量子测量领域实现进展。低空方向，公司与广州低空飞行营地 有限公司举行签约仪式，后续将在中试转化、检验检测、适航审定等方面开展深入合作。同时与西安航 空学院签署协议，共建低空产业试验验证与适航取证平台，未来将深度参与西北乃至中亚"一带一路"低 空经济产业发展。量子领域，公司积极拓展量子精密测量与智能计量技术研究，已与国仪量子共建量子 精密测量联合实验室，与中国计量院深圳创新院共建粤港澳大湾区量子精密测量服务平台。未来将依托 量子精密测量能力，为高端装备、航空低空、商业航天、能源电力等高端制造企业提供全链条的检测计 量服务。 盈利预测：公司布局的众多新兴产业领域订单持续落地，业绩进入高增阶段，同时在低空检测，量子测 量等方向持续实现突破，将持续受益于众多新兴产业相应产品的量产预期。预计公司2025-2027 年营收 分别为36.46/40.45/45.68 亿元；归母净利润为4.33/4.92/5.67 亿元；PE 为28/24/21。 风险提示：技术研发进度不及预期风险；政策支持不及预期风险；商业化落地不及预期风险等。 持续实施精细化管理及成本控制，销售净利率创近年三季度新高 ...

报告导读： 量子计算处于早期突破阶段，量子纠错是关键； 中国在 QKD 量子安全领域 处于绝对领先地位；量子测量产业进入多元化发展周期。 量子计算处于早期突破阶段，量子纠错是关键。 当前，量子计算已成为最具颠覆性的前沿技术之一，并逐渐形成集基础科研、工程研发、应用探索和产业培 育为一体的发展格局。当前，量子计算优越性验证已完成，超导、离子阱、中性原子、光量子、硅半导体等多种技术路线呈现多元化开放性的发展态势，这种 发展态势短期内将持续存在，基础研究与工程研发不断突破，应用场景探索在多行业领域持续推进，产业生态正逐步构建。根据IBM和中国信通院报告总结来 看，量子计算目前还处于早期技术攻关阶段，预计未来5到10年有可能出现实质性进展。我们认为，美国和中国在量子计算领域处于全球领先地位，各技术路 线在量子纠错方面的重大突破将直接影响量子计算的进程。 中国在QKD量子安全领域处于绝对领先地位。 量子安全的实现路径一般包括基于数学的传统路径（PQC）和物理安全路径（QKD）两类。中国已经形成了以 QKD技术为核心的较为完整的量子保密通信产业链。自上而下分为基础器件、核心量子设备研制、量子应用设备研制、集成及应用技术、 ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing is currently in the early breakthrough stage, with quantum error correction being a key focus area [1][2] - The development landscape of quantum computing is characterized by diverse and open technological routes, including superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, photonic, and silicon semiconductor technologies [1] - The industry ecosystem for quantum computing is gradually being established, with ongoing advancements in fundamental research, engineering development, and application exploration across multiple sectors [1] Quantum Security - China holds an absolute leading position in the field of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) technology, forming a comprehensive quantum secure communication industry chain [3] - Chinese institutions account for approximately 93% of the top 10 patent applicants in the global quantum communication field, indicating a strong competitive edge [3] Quantum Measurement - The quantum precision measurement industry is entering a diversified development phase, leveraging quantum states for enhanced measurement accuracy across various physical quantities [4] - The maturity of quantum sensors varies by physical quantity, contributing to the diversification of the industry [4] Investment Recommendation - GuoDun Quantum (688027.SH) is recommended as a key player in the quantum technology sector, being the only listed quantum technology company in China with a focus on quantum computing, quantum security, and quantum measurement [5]

Fixed Income Research - The report highlights that the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats have heightened global risk aversion, leading to a reassessment of sovereign credit risks and an increase in default expectations. It recommends allocating to long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][4]. - The report notes that global government bond yields have declined across the board, with the U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields falling by 6.2 and 7 basis points, respectively. The TED spread has narrowed to -0.048%, indicating improved interbank liquidity [2][35]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%. The report attributes the widening yield spread to various factors, including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's offshore repo enhancements and the divergence between U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and domestic easing policies [3][36]. Industry Reports Construction Industry - The report indicates that the issuance of special bonds for local governments has decreased significantly, with no new bonds issued in the 41st week of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline in financing [7][8]. - The construction industry PMI for September 2025 is reported at 49.3%, showing a slight increase, while the new orders PMI is at 42.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [10]. Real Estate Industry - The report discusses a significant decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities, with new home sales down 55.7% week-on-week and 47.5% year-on-year [8]. - It highlights that the planned land acquisition amount has exceeded 610 billion RMB, with a notable decrease in the scale of new land acquisitions in the third quarter of 2025 [16][18]. Coal Industry - The report states that the price of thermal coal has stabilized, with the average price remaining at 713 RMB/ton. Inventory levels have increased, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising by 11.3% [19][20]. - It also notes fluctuations in coking coal prices, with some prices increasing while others have decreased, reflecting a mixed market response [20][21]. Company Reports Baolong Chuangyuan - The report indicates that Baolong Chuangyuan has achieved a revenue of 969 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 44.9% [22][24]. - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure, leading to improved gross margins and accelerated profit growth [23][25]. Xinhua Insurance - The report projects that Xinhua Insurance will see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with estimates ranging from 299.86 billion to 341.22 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [26][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved investment returns and an optimized asset allocation structure, with a projected net profit growth rate of 52.8% [28].