Core Viewpoint - The former Federal Reserve governor, Kevin Warsh, has indicated that the Federal Reserve is experiencing a "credit crisis" [1] Group 1 - Warsh's comments suggest that the current economic environment is characterized by significant credit challenges, which could impact financial stability [1] - He emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's policies may not be effectively addressing the underlying issues in the credit markets [1] - The statement raises concerns about the potential long-term implications for the economy if these credit issues are not resolved [1]

Group 1 - The core issue of the current economic problems in the United States is fundamentally rooted in the economy itself, affecting various sectors such as military, technology, education, diplomacy, and politics [4] - The apparent debt crisis in the U.S. is a symptom of deeper issues, including a credit crisis, sovereign currency challenges, and a significant imbalance between production and consumption [6] - The unique position of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system allows the U.S. to "profit without effort," but this advantage can also backfire during economic crises, leading to the outsourcing of domestic issues globally [9][11] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the dollar's circulation and manipulating interest rates to alleviate domestic economic pressures by transferring them to other countries [11][14] - The U.S. has historically pursued deindustrialization, weakening its economic resilience and relying heavily on global procurement, which has led to a significant increase in dollar printing through quantitative easing [16] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the economic situation in the U.S., leading to high unemployment and inflation, while also complicating the ability to transfer economic pressure internationally [18] Group 3 - The U.S. is likely to target specific countries to offload its economic burdens, with the U.K. being a close ally unlikely to be exploited, while Russia presents challenges due to its energy exports and independent economic system [20][22] - Germany and France, as leading economies in the EU, are vulnerable to U.S. economic pressures, especially in the wake of the pandemic, which could strain transatlantic relations [25] - China, as the second-largest economy, poses a significant challenge for the U.S. in terms of economic exploitation due to its self-sufficiency and the complexity of U.S.-China economic ties [25][27] Group 4 - Japan's economic situation is precarious, as it remains heavily dependent on the U.S., making it a potential target for economic pressure [27] - The looming risk of U.S. debt default presents severe challenges, but there remains an opportunity for recovery through equal dialogue and international cooperation [29]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. Last week's lower - than - expected US inflation led traders to bet on a Fed rate cut in June. A Fed governor stated different rate - cut scenarios based on tariff levels, and Trump's erratic tariff policies highlighted the value of gold under a credit crisis [1] - Attention should be paid to the battle of the US dollar at the key level of 100 after hitting a three - year low, and caution should be exercised after the rapid rise of gold prices [1] Other Key Points - Trump is considering measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains from Mexico and recently assisted Apple CEO Cook. The US Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and will exit the tomato tariff suspension agreement with Mexico reached in 2019 [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said there is no evidence that sovereign investors are selling US assets, has tools to deal with bond - market fluctuations but is far from using them, and will interview candidates for the Fed chair's successor in the fall [2] - Israeli officials said there are still differences among parties on reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement [2]

牛播坤指出，近年来，由于美国债供给规模持续上升，加之持有人结构的显著变化，长期投资者占比下 降，流动性不足问题隐现。疫情和硅谷银行风险中的两次崩盘已经提出预警。近期美国政府反复无常的 行为无疑进一步提升了美债市场的脆弱性，使得本应作为全球金融资产定价锚的无风险收益率反成为了 风险收益率，美债安全资产的资产属性受到挑战，显著加剧美元相关资产的波动。这也使得美元在世界 经济中的主导地位出现裂痕。 富安达基金：美国的信用危机再受冲击 富安达基金首席经济学家郑良海认为，美债收益率飙升、美元指数下跌，导致各路资金纷纷选择其他资 产避险，黄金价格再创新高，欧元、日元、人民币等货币升值。 郑良海进一步指出，美国"关税战"救不了其制造业，只会适得其反。制造业企业需要充足的劳动力供 给、先进的基础设施网络，高效的物流和配送体系。美国自身的劳动力结构、基础设施、物流体系、政 府效率等制造业生产瓶颈的内部问题不解决，而是把产业空心化问题"甩锅"他国和贸易伙伴，通过打压 贸易伙伴来实现制造业回流显然是徒劳的。特朗普政府接二连三的升级"关税战"，最终结果只会"引火 烧身"也让美国的信用危机再受冲击。 长城证券：美元、美股、美债三杀风险 ...