Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - From 2021 - 2023, with the intensification of energy consumption dual - control policies, coal and non - ferrous supplies tightened, PPI rebounded, and industrial prosperity improved [2] - In 2016, the goal of steel and coal capacity reduction was set, combining administrative and market means [2] - In 2017 - 2018, capacity clearance was completed, and the utilization rate of steel and coal production capacity returned to a reasonable level, with industry profitability restored [2] - In 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target and introduced an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Supply - side Reform Timeline** - In November 2015, the term "supply - side structural reform" was first proposed [2] - In December 2015, the "Three Reductions, One Deleveraging, and One Strengthening" tasks were refined [2] - In July 2020, the pandemic led to a direct impact on the recovery of commodities [2] - In September 2020, the "dual - carbon" goal was put forward, shifting the reform focus [2] - In February 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified the energy crisis [2] - In March 2022, the US announced the release of 180 million barrels of crude oil reserves [2] - In March 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target of 2.5% [2] - In May 2024, an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan was introduced to set energy - efficiency thresholds for different industries [2] - **Industry Development Impact** - The implementation of relevant policies led to changes in coal, steel, and other industries, including capacity reduction, production capacity utilization rate adjustment, and profitability recovery [2]

Group 1 - The steel industry is undergoing a critical transformation from scale expansion to quality improvement, with significant potential for sustainable development [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is implementing targeted policies to enhance the quality of steel futures, including increasing the number of registered brands and delivery warehouses [1][2] - In 2024, the trading volume of steel futures reached 776 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [1] Group 2 - SHFE is actively engaging with steel enterprises to understand their needs and improve contract continuity and delivery convenience, resulting in an overall increase in delivery volumes for hot-rolled and rebar steel [1][2] - The number of steel industry clients using futures tools for risk management is gradually increasing, with notable participation from major companies like Baowu Steel and Nanjing Steel [2] - The integration of steel and finance is deepening, with steel companies adapting to this transitional phase [2] Group 3 - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is focusing on enhancing industrial capabilities and modernizing the supply chain, emphasizing green low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing [3] - CISA is promoting a new capacity governance mechanism and joint restructuring, along with initiatives for ultra-low emissions and digital transformation [3] - SHFE plans to strengthen connections with upstream steel mills and downstream industries to enhance the precision and targeting of industry services [3] Group 4 - Steel companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, accelerating the "going out" strategy across the entire industry chain [4] - SHFE is advancing the internationalization of steel futures to better serve the risk management needs of companies operating abroad [4] - The exchange is collaborating with several foreign exchanges to promote the authorization of steel futures settlement prices, expanding the application scenarios for Chinese steel futures pricing [4]

煤炭高速是传统的分红股，有几位老师提到以后看了一下，这煤炭是一江春水向东流啊，查了一下动力 煤价格今年跌了不少，但应该不至于亏损吧？最多盈利缩水，看一季报吧。 奇怪的是钢铁期货最近走势也不行，但是钢铁股倒是比较强，唯一的利好也许就是传闻中的产能压缩？ 大部分钢铁股年报都还是亏损的。 大部分电力股最近也在下跌，不管火电水电，按道理煤炭降价是利好啊，全社会用电量也在上升吧。 高速公路去年走了一大波行情，在降息背景下，还是值得投资的吧。或许股市本来就不是讲道理的地 方。 又或者是市场资金不足，搞板块轮动，所以看着指数还是3300，暴涨的板块涨了很多，上述这些板块资 金悄悄流出。最后，也许这些目前不好的板块就是下一波行情的领头羊？ psz2017 每天在消费和红利挨打，不看就行，every dog has his day。 kkqq999 说明你不懂股市啊。老股民都知道，煤电油铁老三样都是周期防御性板块，在熊市的时候就会比较好， 牛市就不行。 今年年初还看见有人在这里推荐长江电力，真是惯性思维严重。 kkqq999 @copchen 照说科技股您涨您的，没必要砸红利吧，本来两者就不是一路人。只能说，故意引诱市场资 金 ...