Core Viewpoint - The newly revised mandatory national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2024, maintains the maximum speed limit of 25 km/h, yet illegal modifications to increase speed and range are prevalent, with some areas developing into modification hubs [1][2]. Group 1: New Regulations - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, 2024, continuing the 25 km/h speed limit established in 2018 [1]. - Despite the upcoming regulations, illegal modifications remain widespread, with some locations even establishing modification "streets" or "industrial parks" [1]. Group 2: Modification Industry - Numerous businesses are promoting modifications that can increase electric bicycle speeds to 75-80 km/h and extend battery life to 200 km [2][5]. - Some shops offer comprehensive services for electric bicycle modifications, including upgrades to motors, controllers, and batteries, claiming that modifications can be done easily and quickly [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In Nanning, Guangxi, a concentration of shops is engaged in the sale and modification of electric bicycles, with many indicating that modifications should be completed before the new regulations take effect [4][5]. - Some stores are selling pre-modified electric bicycles that exceed the new standards for motor power and battery specifications [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - The illegal modification issue persists due to regulatory challenges, including the lack of oversight on the production and sale of non-compliant electric bicycles and parts [6]. - The current market has a large number of existing vehicles that require a clear timeline for phasing out, along with potential trade-in programs for new purchases [6].

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for electric bicycles (GB17761—2024) aims to enhance safety and control illegal modifications, set to be implemented on September 1, 2024, amid ongoing issues with unauthorized modifications in the industry [1][21]. Group 1: New National Standard - The new standard includes stricter requirements for battery packs, controllers, and speed limiters to prevent tampering [1]. - The standard is expected to address the ongoing problem of illegal modifications, which have been prevalent despite regulatory challenges [1][21]. Group 2: Illegal Modification Industry - There are reports of numerous illegal modification shops in Nanning, where electric bicycles can be altered to reach speeds of up to 80 km/h and extended ranges of 200 km [1][11]. - Merchants are actively promoting modification kits and services on social media platforms, showcasing how to increase speed and performance [2][5]. - Some shops offer complete modification services, including high-power batteries and controllers that exceed the new standard's limits [6][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The modification market is characterized by a competitive environment where businesses cater to consumer demand for higher speeds and performance, often leading to unsafe practices [18][21]. - Merchants claim that modified electric bicycles can perform similarly to electric motorcycles, creating a loophole in regulatory compliance [18][21]. - The proliferation of modification services has led to a situation where even legitimate electric bicycle retailers are engaging in or facilitating illegal modifications to meet consumer expectations [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli, with a target price of 17.21 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company faces high costs that are squeezing some profits, but its internationalization and industrial chain layout continue to inject development momentum [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.33 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.32 billion CNY, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas strategy, with significant growth in exports and overseas revenue, which accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2024 [10] - The company is enhancing its industrial chain layout by investing in smart logistics and reducing related transactions through acquisitions [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for 2023 and projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2023 Revenue: 17.156 billion CNY, 2024 Revenue: 17.325 billion CNY (1% growth) - 2024 Net Profit: 1.32 billion CNY, 2025 Net Profit: 1.442 billion CNY (9.3% growth) [4][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 23.46%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.6% [4][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.48 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.02 CNY by 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The forklift sales in January and February 2025 showed a steady growth of 9.15% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 6.48% and overseas sales by 13.84%. February alone saw a significant increase of 49.1% in sales compared to the previous year, driven by a low base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [7]. - The demand for forklifts is closely linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors, with the manufacturing PMI indicating a positive outlook as it remained above the threshold line since October 2024 [7]. - Anhui Heli's establishment of a joint venture in Thailand marks a significant step in its global expansion strategy, aiming for an annual production of 10,000 forklifts and lithium battery packs [7]. - Hangcha Group is also expanding internationally by setting up companies in the USA and the Middle East to enhance its market presence and competitiveness [7]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic forklift manufacturers with strong brand recognition and R&D capabilities, such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing and logistics demand [7]. Summary by Sections Forklift Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, total forklift sales reached 195,100 units, with domestic sales at 121,200 units and overseas sales at 73,900 units [7]. - February 2025 saw a monthly sales figure of 101,500 units, with domestic sales at 66,200 units and exports at 35,200 units [7]. Global Expansion Initiatives - Anhui Heli's joint venture in Thailand involves an investment of approximately 319.5 million yuan, holding a 75% stake in the new company [7]. - Hangcha Group's plans include establishing a smart logistics company in the USA and a company in Dubai to enhance its global marketing and operational capabilities [7]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the positive correlation between forklift demand and the manufacturing sector's health, with expectations of a rebound in domestic demand supported by favorable macroeconomic indicators [7].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月13日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250313 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.安徽合力（600761）：首次海外合资建厂，全球化布局加速——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.制冷剂价格稳步上行，未来空间广阔——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 1.国常会：讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方案》 ➢ 2.美国对所有进口钢铁和铝征收25%关税正式生效 ➢ 3.美国2月CPI及核心CPI低于预期 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 安徽合力 ...