证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 震裕科技（300953.SZ） 业绩超预期，结构件量利齐升，机器人全面布局 中游制造/机械 公司公告：2025 年上半年公司实现营收、归母、扣非净利润分别约 40.47 亿元、 2.11 亿元、1.98 亿元，分别同比增长 29%、增长 60.45%、64.9%。 ❑ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、产品价格持续下降。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6019 | 7129 | 9044 | 11457 | 13677 | | 同比增长 | 5% | 18% | 27% | 27% | 19% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 19 | 262 | 525 | 910 | 1217 | | 同比增长 | -70% | 1273% | 100% | 73% | 34% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 43 | 254 | 508 | 881 | 1179 | | 同比增 ...

2025 年 8 月 31 日 公司研究 锂电结构件盈利改善超预期，人形机器人布局深入 ——震裕科技（300953.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 要点 事件：震裕科技 2025 年上半年营收 40.47 亿元，同比增长 29%；归母净利润 2.11 亿元，同比增长 60%；扣非归母净利润 1.98 亿元，同比增长 65%。 25Q2 营业收入 22.54 亿元，同比增长 33%，环比增长 26%；归母净利润 1.38 亿元，同比增长 75%，环比增长 90%。公司 Q2 毛利率为 16.16%，环比增长 2.88pcts，同比增长 0.39pcts，净利率为 6.12%，环比增长 2.05pcts，同比增 长 1.43pcts。 公司业绩超预期。业绩超预期主要由于：1、营业收入增长带来的规模效应； 2、降本增效，人均产值不断提升。公司 25H1 销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分 别 0.54%/2.95%/1.58%/4.09%，相较于 24H1 分别+0.05/-0.28/-0.80/+0.23 pcts，公司精细化管理和成本管控能力显著提升，有望继续贡献利润弹性。 锂电结构件利润率改善超预期。2025 年上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Minglida (301268.SZ) has demonstrated strong growth resilience in the first half of 2025, capitalizing on opportunities in the electric vehicle, energy storage, and liquid cooling markets, with significant improvements in revenue and net loss reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Minglida achieved operating revenue of 1.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.95% [1]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed significantly by 67.31% compared to the previous year, indicating a marked improvement in operational efficiency [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Business Segments - Minglida has established a solid market position in multiple sectors, including photovoltaic, energy storage, and electric vehicles, with a strong customer base that includes Fortune 500 companies [2]. - The company's main business structure remains stable, with clean energy applications dominating its operations, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which has become the largest segment of its business [2]. Group 3: Technological Development and Global Expansion - Minglida has built a robust customer resource moat through deep collaboration with high-end clients, continuously improving in product R&D, supply chain management, and quality control [3]. - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with over 400 valid patents authorized, and is focused on the industrialization of technological achievements [3]. - Minglida is actively expanding its global footprint, with production bases in Mexico and Hungary now operational, enhancing its service response capabilities to overseas clients [3]. Group 4: Growth Potential in Energy Storage - The global energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by carbon neutrality goals, with a significant increase in new installed capacity [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the global new energy storage installed capacity reached 48.6 GW/120.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35% [4]. - Minglida is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with a dominant market share in the global supply chain, accounting for 78.6% of shipments [5]. Group 5: Diversification and New Growth Areas - Since 2024, Minglida has accelerated its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling sectors, aiming to create new growth curves for the company [5]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Zhongguancun Robot Industry Innovation Center to explore opportunities in artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics [5]. - Minglida's liquid cooling business is expanding beyond single components to comprehensive cooling solutions, enhancing its integrated industry chain synergy [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a strong growth trajectory in precision manufacturing, particularly in the fields of electric motor cores and lithium battery structural components, with a significant increase in revenue and profit margins expected [8][14]. - The entry into the humanoid robot sector is seen as a strategic move, with high technical barriers and substantial profit potential [8][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from automation improvements and cost reductions, leading to a recovery in profit margins [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the precision mold industry for over 20 years, expanding into electric motor cores and lithium battery structural components, achieving rapid growth [14]. - Established in 1994, the company has evolved from manufacturing steel needles to becoming a leader in precision stamping molds and structural components [14]. 2. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue grew from 1.193 billion to 7.129 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 42.96% [23]. - The net profit increased from 130 million to 254 million yuan during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 14.42% [23]. - The company’s gross margin for lithium battery structural components is projected to rise to over 12% by 2025 [8][23]. 3. Precision Molding Business - The precision stamping mold technology is critical for downstream component performance, and the company is recognized as a domestic leader in this field [33][40]. - The company’s molds are used in various industries, including automotive and industrial control, with a focus on high efficiency and precision [33][40]. 4. Lithium Battery Structural Components - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients like CATL, leading to a rapid increase in market share [8][14]. - Revenue from lithium battery structural components is expected to grow by over 35% starting in 2025, driven by increased demand from second and third-tier battery clients [8][14]. 5. Humanoid Robot Sector - The company is entering the humanoid robot market, focusing on the production of precision components such as lead screws, which are essential for robot functionality [8][14]. - The lead screw market is characterized by high technical barriers, and the company is well-positioned to capture significant market share due to its existing precision manufacturing capabilities [8][14]. 6. Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 413 million, 575 million, and 785 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.67%, 39.21%, and 36.52% [1][8].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Views - The European electric vehicle market shows a significant recovery trend in 2025, with April sales of 211,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.7% and a penetration rate of 26.3%, up by 6.4 percentage points [6][15] - The EU Parliament approved amendments to carbon emission assessments, delaying the tightening of targets but maintaining the overall trend towards stricter regulations [44][45] Summary by Sections 1. Electric Vehicle Sales in Europe - In April 2025, Germany's BEV sales reached 46,000 units, up 53.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 18.8% [16] - In the UK, BEV sales were 25,000 units, up 8.1% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 20.4% [22] - France's BEV sales were 26,000 units, up 2.3% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 18.4% [27] - Sweden's BEV sales reached 9,000 units, up 25.8% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 35.2% [30] - Norway's BEV penetration rate hit 97%, with sales of 11,000 units, up 8.9% year-on-year [34] - Italy's BEV sales were 7,000 units, up 105.2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 4.8% [36] - Spain's BEV sales reached 7,000 units, up 77.9% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 6.9% [40] 2. Policy Developments - The German coalition agreement includes multiple measures to promote electric vehicle development, such as increasing tax incentives and supporting charging infrastructure [17][18] - The UK government adjusted ZEV sales targets to provide more flexibility and reduced penalties for non-compliance, while maintaining the 2030 ban on petrol and diesel cars [23] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in lithium batteries include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda, with beneficiaries including Zhongxin Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech [45] - For lithium materials, recommended stocks include Hunan Youneng and Huayou Cobalt, with beneficiaries like Fulin Precision and Wanrun New Energy [45][46] - Beneficiaries in lithium battery structural components include Keda Li and Minglida [46]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The European electric vehicle market shows a significant recovery trend in 2025, with April sales reaching 211,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [7][16] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 26.3%, up by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [16] - The German electric vehicle market is recovering significantly, with BEV sales in April 2025 increasing by 53.5% year-on-year [17] - The EU Parliament has passed a carbon emission assessment amendment, delaying the tightening of carbon emission targets but maintaining the overall trend [47] Summary by Sections 1. European New Energy Vehicle Sales - In April 2025, sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries reached 211,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [7][16] - Germany's BEV sales reached 46,000 units in April, up 53.5% year-on-year, while PHEV sales increased by 60.7% [17] - The UK saw BEV sales of 25,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, despite an overall decline in traditional vehicle sales [24] - France's BEV sales were 26,000 units in April, up 2.3% year-on-year, with expectations for stronger sales post-September due to the return of the social leasing plan [29] - Norway's BEV penetration rate reached 97% in April, moving closer to the 100% target [37] - Italy's BEV sales increased by 105.2% year-on-year in April, attributed to a low base effect [39] - Spain's BEV sales rose by 77.9% year-on-year in April, supported by extended subsidies and tax reductions [43] 2. EU Carbon Emission Assessment Amendment - The EU Parliament voted to change the carbon emission assessment from a 2025 target to an average over 2025-2027, delaying the timeline but not altering the overall trend [47] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments in lithium batteries include Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinneng Technology [48] - For lithium materials, recommended companies include Hunan Youneng and Zhongwei Co., with beneficiaries like Fulin Precision and Wanrun New Energy [48] - Beneficiaries in lithium battery structural components include Keda Li and Minglida [48] - Recommended companies for power/electric drive systems are Weimaisi and Fute Technology [48] - Beneficiaries in automotive safety components include Zhongrong Electric and Zhejiang Rongtai [48]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.03 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.472 billion yuan, up 22.55% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.32% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.25%, with a net profit of 455 million yuan, up 12.15% year-on-year and 23.58% quarter-on-quarter [1] Revenue and Profitability - The lithium battery structural components business generated a revenue of 11.473 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14% and an improved gross margin of 25.01%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 9.4%, leading to an increase in net profit margin to 12.2% for the year [2] International Expansion - The company has made significant progress in overseas capacity building, achieving a revenue of 574 million yuan from international markets, a year-on-year increase of 7.37% [3] - Facilities have been established in Sweden, Germany, and Hungary, with ongoing expansions in the U.S. and Malaysia, enhancing supply chain relationships and reducing logistics costs [3] Robotics Business Development - The company has partnered with Taiwanese firms to develop humanoid robotics, focusing on the research and production of harmonic reducers [4] - In April 2024, the company launched seven new core transmission technology products for robots, targeting lightweight design, compact structure, torque-to-weight ratio, and high precision & load stability [4] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 14.4 billion, 17.28 billion, and 20.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 20.0%, and 20.7% respectively [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.81 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.66 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.8%, 19.8%, and 22.8% respectively, indicating a three-year CAGR of 21.8% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 6.6, 7.9, and 9.7 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [5]

Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) reported a Q4 net profit of 1.004 billion yuan, the highest quarterly profit for the year, with a 53.5% growth target for total profit in 2025. The 2024 revenue was 32.966 billion yuan, down 1.58% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 57.64% due to falling rare earth product prices, despite an increase in sales volume of major products. The company is advancing green smelting upgrades and is awaiting an industry turnaround as rare earth prices are at a low point [3][4]. - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH) achieved a revenue of 366.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 20.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.419 billion yuan, down 9.86%. The decline in revenue was influenced by falling commodity prices, although overall operating volume remained stable year-on-year [3][4]. - Zhenan Technology (300767.SZ) reported a revenue of 420 million yuan and a net profit of -140 million yuan for 2024, compared to 690 million yuan and -40 million yuan in the previous year. In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 100 million yuan and a net profit of -80 million yuan [4]. - Zhenyu Technology (300953.SZ) saw a revenue increase of 18.45% to 7.129 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 254 million yuan, up 493.77%. The company proposed a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per share and a stock bonus of 4 shares for every 10 shares held [4]. - Yingweitong (002334.SZ) reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 840 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 35 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year and 74% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Group 2 - Jiangxin Home (301061.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.55 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 680 million yuan, up 67.6%. In Q4 2024, the revenue was 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.8%, and net profit was 250 million yuan, up 197.2% [5]. - Ziyan Food (603057.SH) reported a revenue of 3.363 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.28% year-on-year, with a net profit of 346 million yuan, up 4.50%. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 564 million yuan, down 18.86% year-on-year, and net profit was 15 million yuan, down 71.80% [6].