证券研究报告 | 2026年02月26日 2026年02月27日 策略月报 一页纸精读行业比较数据：2 月 投资链：2 月以来有色价格全面上升。25 年 12 月固定资产投资累计同比增 速下降至-3.80%，房地产开发投资累计同比降幅下降至-17.20%，制造业固 定资产投资累计同比增速下降至 0.60%，基础设施建设投资累计同比增速下 降至-1.48%。26 年 2 月以来铜、铝、锌、铅、锡、镍、黄金、白银价格上升； 26 年 2 月动力煤价格持平于 685 元/吨，焦煤价格持平；26 年 2 月普通水泥 平均价格下降；26 年 2 月以来钢材价格下降；26 年 2 月以来轻质纯碱价格 下降；26 年 1 月大型、轻型客车销量当月同比增速下降，中型客车当月同比 增速上升。 消费链：1 月汽车销量同比增速小幅回升。2025 年 12 月社消额当月名义同 比增速回落至 0.90%，累计名义同比增速回落 3.70%；25 年 12 月消费者信心 指数下降至 89.50；2025 年 12 月商品房销售面积累计同比增速降幅扩大， 增速下降至-9.53%；2026 年 1 月汽车销量当月同比增速上升至-3.18%；2 ...

Investment Chain - Non-ferrous metal prices have risen since February 2026, with fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 declining to -3.80%[1] - Real estate development investment in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 17.20%[1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 decreased to 0.60%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth in December 2025 fell to -1.48%[1] Consumption Chain - In December 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption fell to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70%[2] - The consumer confidence index in December 2025 dropped to 89.50[2] - In January 2026, automobile sales saw a year-on-year growth rate increase to -3.18%[2] - Home appliance retail sales in December 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.25%[2] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN saw a year-on-year growth increase, while exports to the US and EU declined[3] - The export growth rate for electronic products in December 2025 rose to 37.25%[3] - Textile export value in December 2025 decreased by 4.23% year-on-year[3] - Mechanical export value in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year[3] Price Chain - As of February 2026, the price of pork decreased to 12.75 yuan/kg[4] - WTI crude oil price increased to $65.63 per barrel on February 24, 2026[4] - PVC spot price rose to 4770 yuan/ton on February 24, 2026[4] - The average price of coal in Qinhuangdao increased in February 2026[4]

来源：人民日报健康客户端 春节聚会，推杯换盏、把酒言欢——热闹是真的，但身体在"悄悄加班"也是真的。你以为酒精只是伤 胃？错。医生警告：酒精的伤害，远比你想的更可怕。肝脏、心脏、大脑、血管……一杯酒下去，全身 都在替你扛。 今天这篇文章，并非劝你一定要戒酒，而是劝你再别用错方式饮酒，这6种喝法太伤身。 这6种喝酒方式，危害翻倍 各种酒混在一起喝，首先就会让我们不自觉地饮酒过量。而且，两种以上的酒混着喝还会表现出某 种"协同作用"，对人体伤害更大。长沙市中心医院重症医学科主任医师杨勇2024年在医院微信公众号刊 文介绍，不同种类的酒精饮品混合饮用会加速酒精的吸收，增加肝脏和胃肠的负担，从而显著提高急性 酒精中毒的风险。② 1. 服药期间喝酒 正在服用药物的人可千万不能因为"兴致"，而忽视了酒与药同服的危害。中南大学湘雅二医院药学部主 管药师席洋2023年在医院微信公众号刊文提醒，若服用与酒精有相互作用的药物，应停药后至少间隔7 天再饮酒。老年人、肝肾功能不全等特殊人群间隔时间应延长。此外，喝酒后建议在3天内避免服用与 酒精有相互作用的药物。① 除了头孢不能与酒同时服用，还有其他一些药物服药期间也不能饮酒： 镇静 ...

Group 1 - A man in his 30s in Nanjing, Jiangsu, experienced liver failure after consuming metronidazole and alcohol, leading to a five-day hospitalization before stabilizing [1] - Medical professionals emphasize the dangers of combining metronidazole and alcohol, similar to the known risks of alcohol with cephalosporins [1] - The principle of "no alcohol with medication" is reiterated, highlighting that various medications, including antidiabetics, antihypertensives, sedatives, and sleeping pills, should not be mixed with alcohol [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between influenza and the common cold, highlighting the need for appropriate medication to avoid complications and mismanagement of the illness [1][2]. Group 1: Differences Between Influenza and Common Cold - Influenza is caused by influenza viruses (type A and B) and is highly contagious, while the common cold is primarily caused by rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, which are less contagious [3]. - Symptoms of influenza include high fever (39-40 degrees Celsius), muscle aches, and severe fatigue, whereas common cold symptoms are milder, typically involving nasal congestion, runny nose, and low-grade fever [3]. - Treatment differs significantly; antiviral medications are effective for influenza and can prevent severe illness, while common cold treatment focuses on symptom relief, with antiviral drugs being ineffective [3]. Group 2: Common Medication Misconceptions - Using antibiotics for fever is a misconception, as influenza is viral and antibiotics target bacteria; misuse can lead to antibiotic resistance [4]. - Stopping antiviral medication prematurely can allow the virus to persist, increasing the risk of recurrence and resistance; for instance, oseltamivir should be taken for a full five days [4]. - Combining multiple medications can be dangerous, as many cold medications contain acetaminophen, and additional doses can lead to overdose, stressing the liver and kidneys [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chuaning Bio, a leading company in the domestic bio-fermentation technology sector, has extended the lock-up period for its pre-IPO shares held by its controlling shareholder, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical, until December 27, 2026, to enhance investor confidence and stabilize the capital market [1] Group 1: Shareholder Commitment - The lock-up extension involves approximately 1.61 billion shares, accounting for 72.19% of the company's total share capital [1] - This commitment reflects the controlling shareholder's confidence in the company's future development and intrinsic value [1] Group 2: Production and Market Outlook - Chuaning Bio reported that its three major intermediates are operating at full capacity, although the overall shipment volume has decreased by about 8% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a potential recovery in market demand for penicillin products, with prices currently at historical lows, and expects a positive trend as the traditional peak season approaches [2] - The company has initiated a collaboration with Shanghai Jincheng Technology to leverage AI in enhancing production efficiency in bio-fermentation [2] Group 3: AI and Product Development - The AI virtual engineer has shown an average production increase of 3%-5% compared to the control group and can predict fermentation trends in real-time [3] - Revenue from synthetic biology products reached 48.8 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with improved order conditions compared to the previous year [3] - The company expects significant revenue growth in synthetic biology products as production capacity increases and market expansion continues [3] Group 4: Management's Strategic Focus - The management plans to deepen technological innovation, optimize industrial layout, and enhance operational quality to reward shareholders' trust and support [4] - Chuaning Bio aims to become a significant innovative force in the global biotechnology sector, creating sustainable value for shareholders [4]

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

Investment Chain - Since November, prices of tin, silver, and gold have increased. In October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to -1.70%, with real estate development investment declining by 14.70%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate fell to 2.7%, and infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 1.51% [7][8] - In November 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while the price of thermal coal slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. The average price of ordinary cement has risen, and steel prices have decreased [7][8] Consumer Chain - The consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. In October 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.90%, with a cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate decline of 4.30%. The sales area of commercial housing in October saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -7.63% [8][9] - In October 2025, automobile sales decreased by 8.82% year-on-year, and home appliance retail sales fell by 10.25% year-on-year. In December 2024, tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while in March 2024, tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% [8][9] Export Chain - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States increased, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for refined oil, coke, and shipbuilding increased, while exports of agricultural products, toys, furniture, lighting, coal, steel, plastics, auto parts, and aluminum decreased [9][10] - The export amount year-on-year growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports decreasing by 9.10% and machinery exports declining by 1.10% [9][10] Price Chain - In November, pork prices decreased, and oil prices also saw a decline. As of November 25, 2025, WTI crude oil price fell to 57.95 USD/barrel. The price of PVC dropped to 4400 RMB/ton, while the price of pure MDI rose to 19350 RMB/ton and the price of polymer MDI decreased to 14550 RMB/ton [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The current flu season in China is experiencing a rapid increase in activity, with the H3N2 virus remaining dominant, and experts clarify that there are no new pathogens causing emerging infectious diseases [1][2][3]. Group 1: Flu Virus Characteristics - The H3N2 subtype is not new and is a common variant, with seasonal fluctuations between H1N1, H3N2, and B-type flu viruses [3]. - Influenza viruses undergo "antigenic drift," leading to seasonal outbreaks, but this does not imply that the virus is becoming increasingly virulent [4][5]. Group 2: Vaccination Insights - With the flu season in full swing, vaccination remains beneficial, even for those who have experienced flu-like symptoms but have not been diagnosed [6][8]. - It is advised not to vaccinate during the acute phase of infection, but individuals can receive the vaccine after recovery from flu-like symptoms [7]. Group 3: Treatment and Symptoms in Children - Antibiotics are ineffective against viral infections like the flu, and treatment should focus on rest, hydration, and symptomatic relief [9]. - Symptoms in children can vary significantly, with older children showing symptoms similar to adults, while younger children may exhibit different signs such as digestive issues [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current flu activity in China is on the rise, with the H3N2 virus remaining dominant, and there are no new pathogens detected that could lead to new infectious diseases [1][4]. Group 1: Flu Virus and Variants - The H3N2 subtype is not a new variant and is commonly known [4]. - The flu virus can undergo "antigenic drift," leading to seasonal outbreaks, but such changes do not necessarily indicate that the virus is becoming more virulent [4]. Group 2: Vaccination and Protection - Vaccination remains effective even during the flu season, although it is not recommended for patients in the acute phase of illness [5][7]. - Experts suggest that vaccination during the flu season can still provide protection [7]. Group 3: Treatment and Misconceptions - Antibiotics are ineffective against viral infections like the flu, and the common practice of taking anti-inflammatory drugs for flu symptoms is not scientifically supported [9]. - Treatment for flu should focus on rest, hydration, and symptomatic relief, with antibiotics only used under medical guidance for confirmed bacterial infections [9]. Group 4: Symptoms in Children - Symptoms of flu in children may differ from adults, with older children showing symptoms similar to adults, while younger children may exhibit different signs such as abdominal discomfort [10][12]. - Parents should be vigilant for flu symptoms in children and seek medical attention when necessary [12].