Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A maintained a positive value, while Index B continued to rise, indicating ongoing economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting improved domestic economic dynamics[1] - Consumer sector performance showed a recovery, while investment and real estate sectors remained stable[1] Price Tracking and Inflation - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in August, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.1%[2] - The CPI year-on-year is anticipated to decline to -0.3%[2] - The PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year increase to -2.5%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are considered low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is viewed as high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 29, 2025, is 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,206.20[19]

Core Insights - In July, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decline to an increase, rising by 0.7% month-on-month while experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: CPI Trends - The food prices decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Non-food prices shifted from a 0.3% decrease in the previous month to a 0.9% increase [1] Group 2: Service and Industrial Prices - Service prices transitioned from a 0.3% decrease to a 1.1% increase, driven by increased travel during the summer, with airfares, accommodation, and travel agency fees rising by 37.8%, 11.8%, and 6.1% respectively [1] - Industrial consumer goods prices changed from a 0.2% decrease to a 0.9% increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 3.6% and 4.0%, respectively, marking an increase of 3.3 and 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Prices for large household appliances shifted from a 0.1% decrease to a 2.7% increase, while gold jewelry prices rose by 0.3% [1]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows seasonal decline, indicating stable domestic economic growth momentum[11] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages, suggesting steady economic performance[12] - Investment sector sentiment has declined, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly decreased by approximately -0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about -0.1%[2] - The June PPI is expected to decline by -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 4, 2025[11] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 27, 2025, is 2.20%, compared to the actual yield of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month stands at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Core Insights - Costco reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $63.21 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, slightly above market expectations of $63.19 billion [1] - Earnings per share reached $4.28, a 13.2% increase year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations of $4.24 [1] - Net profit was $1.9 billion, reflecting a 13.1% year-over-year growth [1] Revenue Composition - Membership fee revenue for the quarter was $1.24 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, highlighting the resilience of its membership-based business model [1] - Costco's global membership base exceeds 80 million, providing a stable revenue source [1] - Same-store sales growth, excluding fuel and currency effects, was 8%, with strong performance in food, fresh produce, and non-food categories [1] Market Performance - Operating cash flow for the quarter reached $3.2 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, supporting debt repayment and shareholder returns [2] - The company returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, more than double the average quarterly level since the FY2023 capital allocation plan [2] - International same-store sales growth, excluding fuel and currency effects, was 9.9%, indicating strong performance across multiple regional markets [2]

Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, indicating a decline in economic momentum[1] - Index B decreased, with investment and real estate sectors showing a downturn while consumer sector remained stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately -1.0% month-on-month in May, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by -0.2%, leading to an overall CPI decline of -0.4%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to drop by -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.1%[2] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of May 30, 2025, is 2.28%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,099.44[20]