Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to close at 3836.77 points, with a daily high of 3854.33 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37% to close at 12585.08 points, reaching a high of 12655.29 points [1] - The ChiNext Index gained 0.31%, closing at 2929.04 points, with a peak of 2951.43 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 0.2%, with the highest return from the Penghua SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 ETF at 3.01% [2] - The highest performing industry ETF was the China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, yielding 4.25% [2] - The highest return among thematic ETFs was the China Securities Aerospace Industry ETF, which achieved 5.01% [2] ETF Gain and Loss Rankings - The top three ETFs by gain were: - Huaxia China Securities Aerospace Industry ETF (5.01%) - Tianhong China Securities Aerospace Industry ETF (4.66%) - Wanji China Securities Aerospace Industry ETF (4.64%) [4] - The top three ETFs by loss were: - Xingyin SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive Price ETF (-2.14%) - Huaxia China Securities Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (-1.88%) - Jiashi China Securities Rare Metals Thematic ETF (-1.68%) [4] ETF Fund Flow - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (inflow of 3.665 billion yuan) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (inflow of 1.53 billion yuan) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (inflow of 895 million yuan) [6] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huabao CSI Bank ETF (outflow of 211 million yuan) - Fuguo CSI Military Industry Leaders ETF (outflow of 209 million yuan) - Guotai CSI Coal ETF (outflow of 207 million yuan) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The highest margin buy amounts were for: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (593 million yuan) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (440 million yuan) - Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (415 million yuan) [8] - The highest margin sell amounts were for: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (34.95 million yuan) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (7.56 million yuan) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (3.97 million yuan) [9] Institutional Insights - Shenwan Hongyuan expects strong resonance between demand and supply in China's military trade, driven by expanding global military trade demand and enhanced product capabilities [10] - Debon Securities highlights a historic opportunity for the commercial aerospace industry, transitioning from manufacturing to application, with significant growth in low-orbit satellite demand [11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% last week, closing at 3997.56 points, with a peak of 4012.01 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.19%, closing at 13404.06 points, with a high of 13496.7 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 0.65%, ending at 3208.21 points, with a maximum of 3240.34 points [1] - In contrast, major global indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down 3.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 0.31% [2] - The highest weekly return among scale index ETFs was 2.9% for the Penghua CSI 800 Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The top-performing industry index ETF was the Southern CSI New Energy ETF, with a return of 5.33% [2] - The highest return in thematic index ETFs was 10.92% for the Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment Thematic ETF [4] ETF Liquidity and Fund Flow - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs decreased by 15.7%, while average daily trading volume increased by 9.3% [6] - The top five stock ETFs with the highest inflows included the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, which saw an inflow of 400 million yuan [9] - The top five stock ETFs with the largest outflows included the E Fund ChiNext ETF, which experienced an outflow of 290 million yuan [10] ETF Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs decreased from 49.1454 billion yuan to 47.9148 billion yuan [11] - The highest financing buy amount was 486 million yuan for the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF [11] ETF Market Size and Composition - The total market size for ETFs reached 572.989 billion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for 373.4058 billion yuan [14] - Stock ETFs represent 79.0% of the total number of ETFs and 65.2% of the total market size [16] New ETF Issuance - No new ETFs were issued last week, but eight new ETFs were established, including the Huaxia CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF [17] Industry Insights - Industrial chain restructuring in the photovoltaic sector is anticipated, with Q3 showing a trend of reduced losses in the main chain [17] - The supply-demand relationship in the photovoltaic industry is expected to recover rapidly, driven by supply-side structural reforms and new technological changes [17]

Core Viewpoint - As of November 7, the total margin balance for ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 118.109 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2.67 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Category ETF Margin Balance - The ETF financing balance is 109.725 billion yuan, down by 2.626 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short balance is 8.384 billion yuan, decreasing by 0.044 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Net Inflows - On November 7, 216 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top inflow being the Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF, which saw a net inflow of 87.3479 million yuan [1] - Other ETFs with significant net inflows include the Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, the Da Cheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, the E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, and the Fortune CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF [1]

Group 1: FOF Fund Scale and Issuance - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total number of FOF funds reached 518, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter, with a total scale of 1934.9 billion, up 16.8% from the previous quarter [5][8] - In Q3 2025, a total of 19 FOF funds were issued, with an issuance scale of 65.32 billion, a decrease of 64.9% compared to the previous quarter [10] Group 2: FOF Fund Performance - In Q3 2025, 99% of FOF funds achieved positive returns, with equity-oriented FOFs performing particularly well [12] - The median returns for equity, balanced, and debt-oriented FOFs were 2.99%, 12.18%, and 20.98%, respectively [12][13] Group 3: FOF Holdings Analysis - FOF managers favored technology-themed funds, with the top three actively managed equity funds being Caixin Asset Management Digital Economy, Boda Growth Smart Navigation, and E Fund Growth Power [19][20] - The top three passive equity funds favored by FOF managers were GF National Index New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, and Huashang Growth 50 ETF [26][29] - For fixed income plus funds, the most favored were Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Fengli, Yongying Stable Enhancement, and Invesco Great Wall Jingsheng Dual Income [33]

Core Viewpoint - The "National Team," including Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans, has maintained a stable position in broad-based ETFs while making minor adjustments in sector-specific ETFs, reflecting a strategic approach to stabilize the A-share market [1][2][3]. Group 1: ETF Holdings and Performance - The "National Team" has kept its holdings in broad-based ETFs largely unchanged, with significant performance in the third quarter, where the average increase of ETFs held exceeded 20%, resulting in a scale increase of over 200 billion yuan [2][6]. - As of mid-2025, the "National Team" holds over 40% of the total A-share ETF market, indicating a strong influence on market stability [3]. - The total scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans reached 1.55 trillion yuan by the end of the third quarter, marking an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous quarter [7]. Group 2: Specific ETF Adjustments - Central Huijin Asset Management's two specialized asset management plans have shown more frequent trading activity, including a reduction in holdings of specific ETFs, which should not be interpreted as a broader "National Team" strategy [4][5]. - Notably, the specialized plans reduced their holdings in the Guotai Zhongzheng 800 Automotive and Parts ETF by 800,000 shares in July, and completely divested from the Huaxia Hang Seng China Mainland Enterprises High Dividend ETF [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Influences - The significant rebound in the A-share market during the third quarter was a primary driver of the "National Team's" unrealized gains, supported by favorable domestic liquidity conditions and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8]. - Factors such as policy support, active trading, and capital inflows contributed to the overall positive market performance, with a notable increase in risk appetite among investors [8].

Core Insights - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans have maintained their positions in broad-based ETFs, providing support to the stock market, with minor adjustments in sector-specific ETFs [1][2] - As of the end of Q3, the total ETF holdings of Central Huijin Investment and its affiliates reached approximately 1.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarterly increase of over 200 billion yuan [1][5] ETF Holdings Stability - Central Huijin Investment has not made any adjustments to its ETF holdings, maintaining significant positions in 15 ETFs where it holds over 20% of the total shares [2] - Central Huijin Asset also retained its holdings in 12 ETFs, with no changes reported in the third quarter [2] Minor Adjustments in Specialized Asset Management Plans - Central Huijin Asset's specialized asset management plans made slight adjustments, including a redemption of 800,000 shares in the Guotai CSI 800 Automotive and Parts ETF, reducing its holdings to 61.7069 million shares [3] - The plans also completely divested from the Huaxia Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend ETF, which had 80.5888 million shares at the end of Q2 [3] Performance of Specialized Asset Management Plans - In the first half of the year, the specialized asset management plans increased their holdings in certain ETFs while reducing positions in others, such as the Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF [4] Significant Growth in ETF Scale - The equity market saw a substantial rebound in Q3, contributing to floating profits for Central Huijin Investment's ETF holdings, with notable gains from major ETFs like the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, which generated over 55 billion yuan in floating profits [5] - The best-performing ETF in Q3 was the Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF, which surged over 80% [6]

Core Insights - The Penghua CSI Sub-segment Chemical Industry Theme ETF, managed by Yan Dong, reported a net value growth rate of 20.09% over the past year [1] Fund Holdings Summary - New additions to the top ten holdings include Tianqi Lithium (天赐材料) and Jinhai Technology (金发科技) [1] - The largest holding, Wanhua Chemical (万华化学), saw an increase in shares by 2,550.77 million, representing a 935.31% increase [1] - Other significant increases in holdings include: - Yanhua Co. (盐湖股份) with a 937.21% increase, totaling 55.62 million shares valued at 1.16 billion [1] - Juhua Co. (巨化股份) with a 937.15% increase, totaling 20.27 million shares valued at 0.81 billion [1] - Cangge Mining (藏格矿业) with a 934.67% increase, totaling 11.76 million shares valued at 0.69 billion [1] - Hualu Hengsheng (华鲁恒升) with a 935.53% increase, totaling 22.28 million shares valued at 0.59 billion [1] - Baofeng Energy (宝丰能源) with a 935.77% increase, totaling 32.99 million shares valued at 0.59 billion [1] - Hengli Petrochemical (恒力石化) with a 936.43% increase, totaling 31.68 million shares valued at 0.54 billion [1] - Yuntianhua (云天化) with a 938.2% increase, totaling 19.18 million shares valued at 0.51 billion [1] - Satellite Chemical (卫星化学) and Longbai Group (龙佰集团) exited the top ten holdings [1]

Group 1 - Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, with 9 institutional investors holding a total of 4.941 billion shares, representing 67.38% of the total share capital [1] - The proportion of shares held by institutional investors decreased by 0.97 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 2 funds increased their holdings, including a chemical ETF and the China Europe Index Fund, with an increase ratio of 0.41% [2] - One public fund, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, reduced its holdings slightly [2] - One new public fund was disclosed, namely the Beixin Ruifeng Flexible Allocation Fund [2] - 650 public funds were not disclosed in the current period, including several major ETFs [2] Group 3 - In the social security fund sector, one fund, the National Social Security Fund No. 109 Portfolio, increased its holdings slightly [2] - One foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings by 0.35% [2] - A new foreign institution, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority - Proprietary Fund, was disclosed in the current period [2]

Core Insights - The asset management industry is witnessing a shift as traditional active management firms are entering the ETF market, indicating a new competitive landscape [2][3][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ETF market in China has surpassed 5.6 trillion yuan, with non-money market ETFs reaching 5.47 trillion yuan, showing significant growth potential [3][7] - New entrants like Xingzheng Global Fund and Jiao Yin Schroder Fund are launching ETF products, marking a strategic shift from their traditional focus on active management [4][9] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Xingzheng Global Fund's first ETF, tracking the CSI 300 Quality Index, aims to provide investors with access to high-quality A-share assets, avoiding direct competition in the crowded broad index space [5][6] - Jiao Yin Schroder Fund is focusing on the CSI Selected Hong Kong and Shanghai Technology 50 Index, targeting high-growth technology companies, indicating a strategic emphasis on niche markets [5][6] Group 3: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - The third quarter saw a net redemption of over 140 billion units in broad ETFs, while sector-specific and small-cap ETFs gained popularity, highlighting changing investor preferences [7] - The rapid growth of certain thematic ETFs, such as those tracking the brokerage sector, indicates a shift in capital allocation strategies among investors [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The entry of active management firms into the ETF space is expected to intensify competition, leading to product innovation and improved services [9] - The future of the ETF market will likely focus on integrated asset allocation solutions, moving beyond mere product offerings to comprehensive service models [8][9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: October 10, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Shenwan Hongyuan Gold ETF Portfolio 202510 [1] - Analysts: Shen Siyi, Deng Hu [3] - Research Support: Bai Haotian [3] - Contact: Shen Enyi [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report constructs four ETF portfolios, including the macro industry portfolio, macro + momentum industry portfolio, core - satellite portfolio, and trinity style rotation ETF portfolio, based on macro - sensitivity and momentum analysis, aiming to capture investment opportunities in different market environments [5][8]. - The current economic leading indicators are rising, liquidity indicators are slightly tight, and credit indicators remain positive. The portfolios are shifting towards a more balanced allocation, with an increased proportion of consumer sectors [5]. - The trinity style rotation model combines macro - liquidity, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct a medium - to long - term style rotation model, providing insights into market style preferences [5][9]. Group 4: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 4.1 Based on Macro - Method - Calculate macro - sensitivity for broad - based, industry - theme, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Traditional cyclical industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT to liquidity, and consumption to credit [8]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) using macro - sensitivity and momentum, and rebalance monthly [8]. 4.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - Build a medium - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, comparing with the CSI 300 index. Screen macro, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct three types of models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) [9]. Group 5: Portfolio Details 5.1 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select the top 6 industry - theme indices based on macro - sensitivity scores, and equally weight the largest - scale corresponding ETFs. Currently, the portfolio is more balanced with an increased consumer proportion [5][10]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to tourism, home appliances, chemicals, etc. [14]. - In 2025, the portfolio had varying monthly excess returns, with positive excess returns in September [15]. 5.2 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods. The pharmaceutical sector's weight is further reduced, and rare earth and battery sectors are selected on the momentum side [5][16]. - October 2025 holdings include multiple industry - themed ETFs [18]. - The portfolio performed well in 2025, with positive excess returns in September after a drawdown in August [19]. 5.3 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Use the CSI 300 as the core and combine broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta portfolios. Weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [20][21]. - October 2025 holdings include a mix of broad - based and industry - themed ETFs [24][25]. - The portfolio performed steadily in 2025, outperforming the index almost every month [25]. 5.4 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors small - cap growth and high - quality styles. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are presented [26][27]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to small - cap indices and high - growth sectors [31]. - The portfolio has shown certain performance since 2021, with positive excess returns in September 2025 [30].