Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, expected to achieve the annual target of 5% [1][16] - Concerns about liquidity risks in the dollar market due to the near exhaustion of reverse repos and continuous TGA replenishment [1][18] - The core of the US economy is still based on "salary income → consumption expenditure," indicating a potential soft landing as long as core sectors do not face substantial risks [1][21] Fixed Income - The report highlights the potential for arbitrage opportunities in the Sci-Tech bond ETF, focusing on bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher, smaller issuance sizes, and specific issuer types [3][5] Industry Analysis - **Pet Food Industry**: The company is a leading player in the domestic pet food market, with significant advantages in brand strength, product quality, and channel capabilities. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to tariff impacts on overseas OEM business, with net profit estimates of 7.0/8.8/10.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.5%/25.2%/21.8% [6] - **Education Sector**: The company is positioned as a leader in corporate training, with a forecasted net profit of 3.0/3.3/3.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "hold" rating [9] - **Textile Industry**: The company reported a stable Q3 performance with a revenue increase of 23.2% year-on-year, benefiting from volume growth in key products. The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 35.1/43.0/49.8 billion yuan [13] - **Electrical Equipment**: The company expects a 5-10% revenue growth in the high-voltage sector, driven by strong demand and a robust order backlog. The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 12.85/16.09/19.46 billion yuan [14] - **Mining Sector**: The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 504/590/690 billion yuan, reflecting the rising prices of gold and copper [15]

业绩简评 10 月22 日公司披露2025 年三季报，1~3Q25 收入47.37 亿元（同比+29.0%），归母净利5.13 亿元（同比 +9.1%），其中3Q25 收入15.17亿元（同比+21.9%），归母净利1.35 亿元（同比-16.7%）。 经营分析 高端猫粮品牌弗列加特保持高速增长，麦富迪增速边际放缓但仍高于大盘。根据久谦，3Q25 宠物食品 行业销售额同比+7.3%，公司主品牌麦富迪/弗列加特销售额同比+8.1%/75.0%，均高于行业大盘增速， 市场份额持续提升。1~3Q25/3Q25 毛利率分别为42.83%/42.92%（同比+0.9/+1.1pct），主因产品结构升 级加速推进；3Q25毛利率环比-0.9pct，或因外销业务受关税分摊影响。24 年弗列加特推出0 压乳系列 和高鲜肉天然粮系列等深受消费者产品，为其高速成长注入动力；同年推出超高端犬粮品牌汪臻醇，填 补国内品牌犬粮市场超高端领域的空白，进一步完善品牌矩阵布局。 内销市场行业竞争加剧，销售费用率同比提升致盈利波动。行业竞争加剧&新品上市，公司销售费用率 同比明显提升。1~3Q25 公司销售/管理&研发费用率同比+2.9/-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 3.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%, and a net profit of 378 million yuan, up 22.55% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of the year were 42.78% and 11.75%, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.73 and -0.99 percentage points respectively [2]. - The second quarter revenue and net profit were 1.741 billion yuan and 174 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.99% and 8.54% respectively [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of the year was 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.97% [2]. Product and Brand Development - The company's proprietary high-end cat food brand, Frigat, saw significant growth, with main food and snack revenues reaching 1.883 billion yuan and 1.294 billion yuan, up 57.09% and 8.34% year-on-year respectively [3]. - E-commerce revenue for the first half of the year was 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.72%, accounting for 37.73% of total revenue [3]. - The company launched new product lines under the Frigat brand, which gained popularity in the market, leading to strong sales performance [3]. Incentive Plans - The company announced a second phase of its stock incentive plan, aiming to grant up to 556,000 shares to nine individuals, representing 0.14% of the total share capital [4][5]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan include revenue growth rates of no less than 25%, 53%, and 84% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates of no less than 16%, 32%, and 45% for the same period [4]. Valuation and Forecast - Based on the company's mid-year report and the stock incentive performance targets, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.88, 2.26, and 2.67 yuan respectively [6]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 51.62 times, which is higher than the average of comparable companies, reflecting the company's strong growth potential and market position as a leading pet food enterprise in A-shares [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds has increased, with changes ranging from 1 BP to 6 BP during the period from August 18 to August 24 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds maintaining zero issuance while company bonds and directional tools increased, and medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds decreased [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and directional tools showing positive net financing, while other varieties showed negative net financing [2] - The transaction amount of credit bonds in the secondary market has continued to decline, with medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds decreasing, while corporate bonds, company bonds, and directional tools increased [2] - The absolute yield perspective indicates that insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand support the strength of credit bonds, with a long-term downward trend in future yields [2] Group 2: Company Research - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) - In the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [10] - The production completion rate exceeded the median guidance, with significant results in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [10] - The prices of major products increased, with copper, cobalt, and other products showing production growth rates of 12.68% and 13.05%, while molybdenum and tungsten showed slight declines [10] - The company improved its cost control, resulting in an increase in gross profit margin by 2.77 percentage points to 21.15% [11] - The company is actively optimizing its debt structure, reducing financial pressure, and steadily advancing construction projects [11] Group 3: Industry Research - Metals - The steel industry is expected to see a tightening of supply due to production restrictions, with short-term steel prices likely to fluctuate [6] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply but may face pressure from demand and the US dollar index [6] - The aluminum industry may experience supply contraction due to tax policy changes, with short-term prices expected to fluctuate [6] - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical risks and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may support gold prices [6] - The newly released total control policy for rare earths in China is expected to effectively manage strategic resources [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 3.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 378 million yuan, up 22.55% year-on-year [7] - The self-owned brand and online sales channels are experiencing strong growth, with self-owned brand revenue expected to grow over 40% in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company continues to innovate and lead the industry, with a new high-end brand strategy and successful product launches [7] - The profit forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards, with net profits expected to be 750 million yuan, 981 million yuan, and 1.231 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.327 billion yuan in 2023, 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, 6.579 billion yuan in 2025, 8.067 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.794 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.36%, 21.22%, 25.43%, 22.62%, and 21.41% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 428.84 million yuan in 2023, 624.72 million yuan in 2024, 750.09 million yuan in 2025, 981.41 million yuan in 2026, and 1.23074 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.68%, 45.68%, 20.07%, 30.84%, and 25.41% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.07 yuan in 2023, 1.56 yuan in 2024, 1.88 yuan in 2025, 2.45 yuan in 2026, and 3.08 yuan in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pet food industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., while suggesting to pay attention to Peidi Co. and Lusi Co. [2][4] Core Insights - The pet food industry in China is experiencing a long-term favorable trend, with short-term acceleration expected. The support from channel partners for leading brands is increasing, and product homogenization is becoming more pronounced. The industry is likely entering a phase of accelerated concentration, benefiting leading publicly listed pet food companies [3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Performance During 2025 "618" Shopping Festival - The pet food sector maintained high growth during the 2025 "618" shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3][19] - Domestic brands have further increased their market share, accounting for 65% of the top 20 pet brands on Tmall, up from 55% in 2022 [3][27] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with no new brands entering the top ten during the 2025 "618" sales [5][28] 2. Performance of Listed Companies - Guobao Pet's brand Maifudi remains a leader, ranking No. 2 in Tmall's pet brand category during the 2025 "618" festival [3][4] - Zhongchong Co. saw improvements in rankings for its brands, with Wanpi making significant progress [3][4] - Peidi Co.'s brand Jueyan achieved a total GMV of 38 million yuan during the festival, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52% [3][4] 3. Industry Trends - Long-term trends indicate that the "declining birthrate" is driving an increase in pet ownership, particularly among the "post-00s" demographic [3][4] - The market is witnessing a simultaneous rise in domestic brand replacement and consumption upgrades, with domestic brands' market share accelerating from 2020 to 2024 [3][4] - Short-term indicators show an upward trend in industry prosperity, with a combined GMV growth rate of 16.8% across major platforms from January to May 2025 [3][4] 4. Consumer Behavior and Preferences - There is a growing trend towards pet health products and prescription food, with prescription food sales for cats and dogs increasing by 60% year-on-year [3][4][36] - The top brands in the pet food category are increasingly focusing on health-oriented products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][4][36]

创业板投资风险提示：本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、 新旧产业融合存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高 等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司 所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 （聊城市经济技术开发区牡丹江路8号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 保荐人（主承销商） （济南市市中区经七路 86 号） 联席主承销商 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 Gambol Pet Group Co., Ltd. | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A股） | | --- | --- | | 本次发行股数 | 4,000.45万股且占发行后总股本的比例为10%；本次公开发行不涉 及原股东公开发售股份 | | 每股面值 | 人民币1.00元 | | 每股发行价格 | 39.99元/股 | | 发行日期 | 2023年8月7日 | | 拟上市的证券交易所和板块 | 深圳证券交易所创业板 | | 发行后总股本 | 40,004.45万股 | | 保荐人（主承销商） | 中泰证券股份有限公司 | | 联席主承销商 | 中国国际金融股份有 ...

创业板投资风险提示：本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、 新旧产业融合存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高 等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司 所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 Gambol Pet Group Co., Ltd. （聊城市经济技术开发区牡丹江路8号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股意向书 保荐人（主承销商） （济南市市中区经七路 86 号） 联席主承销商 （北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层） 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 招股意向书 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行人注 册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其对发行人 的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。任何与之相反 的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》的规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行人 自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担股票 ...

创业板投资风险提示：本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、 新旧产业融合存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高 等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司 所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 Gambol Pet Group Co., Ltd. （聊城市经济技术开发区牡丹江路8号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市招股说明书 （注册稿） 声明：本公司的发行申请尚需深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序，本招 股说明书不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之用，投资者应当以正式公 保荐人（主承销商） 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 招股说明书 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行人注 册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其对发行人 的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。任何与之相反 的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》的规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行人 自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价 ...

创业板投资风险提示：本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、 新旧产业融合存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高 等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 Gambol Pet Group Co., Ltd. （聊城市经济技术开发区牡丹江路8号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市招股说明书 （注册稿） 股说明书不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之用，投资者应当以正式公 （济南市市中区经七路 86 号） 联席主承销商 （北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层） 所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 声明：本公司的发行申请尚需深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序，本招 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 招股说明书 告的招股说明书全文作为投资决定的依据。 保荐人（主承销商） 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行人注 册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其对发行人 的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性 ...