热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 昨日召开的中央政治局会议可视为中央经济工作会议的"预告片"，其明确提出2026年将继续实施"更加 积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"，这套"宽财政+宽货币"的组合拳预示着整体资金环境将保持 宽松，为商品市场奠定宏观背景。在此基调明确后，作为期货投资者，在随后的中央经济工作会议公布 具体部署前，我们可以提前关注哪些细化看点？ 看点一：听"语气" 我们可以在后续表述中特别留意是否出现诸如"加大宏观调控力度"、"强化逆周期和跨周期调节"等表 述，如果其表述强度进一步提升，甚至出现"超常规"、"奋力"等非常规措辞，通常意味着政策决心或显 著增强，这将对市场情绪形成有力提振，也预示着总需求有望得到更强力的支撑，从而促进整体商品市 场的信心回暖。 看点二：看"工具" 1． 财政：钱从哪来，花到哪去？ "钱从哪里来？"： 后续应重点关注赤字率以及特别国债、专项债的规模，这直接反映了中央政府加杠杆的力度。若政策明 确释放"加力提效"的信号，且赤字与国债规模超出市场预期，则意味着政府明年将更积极 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Macro - In the short - term, the profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises will face great pressure and likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern. In the long - term, the profit of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a recovery channel in 2025. The RMB is likely to continue a stable and relatively strong trend in the short - term, with a slower appreciation speed and more obvious two - way fluctuations. In the long - term, it is expected to start a gentle appreciation channel [1][3][4] Stock Index - Overseas market fluctuations may disturb the A - share market, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be mainly volatile [4][5] Treasury Bonds - The central bank's bond - buying scale should be focused on. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6] Container Shipping to Europe - The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the short - term price fluctuation is intensified [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, silver has set a new high, and platinum and palladium mainly follow the trend of gold and silver [10][14] Copper - If there is no new contradiction in the short - term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock after the breakthrough [17] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum shows a strong and volatile trend, alumina is in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy is strong and volatile [18][19] Zinc - It shows a strong and volatile trend [19] Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are strong in the short - term, but the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [20][21] Tin - It is not recommended to short in the short - term, and the strategy of entering the market on dips is maintained [22] Lithium Carbonate - There may be a short - term correction, but there are opportunities to go long on dips in the medium - to - long - term [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a volatile state, and polysilicon is expected to have an enlarged fluctuation range [26] Lead - There is support below, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The profit is improving, and they are in a strong and volatile trend [29][30] Iron Ore - The price will maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - The macro - sentiment is improving. Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [35][36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They are in a weak and volatile trend [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In the short - term, it is in a volatile pattern, and in the long - term, it is in a downward trend [40] LPG - It is in a volatile state [41][43] PTA - PX - The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - The downward driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to sell call options [49][50] PP - The cost support is strong, and the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally [52][53] PE - The upward space is limited due to insufficient self - driving force [54][56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - The cracking is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The cracking is weakening, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - The bottom space is limited, and the winter storage policy should be focused on [61][62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The weather speculation sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to wait and see [63] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's November Manufacturing PMI was 49.9, with the new export order growing at the fastest rate in 8 months. The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank at the largest rate in four months. Japan's central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [1] - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased year - on - year in October. In the short - term, the profit growth rate will face pressure, and in the long - term, it is expected to recover. Overseas, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile at a high level [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [2] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI declined, and the Japanese central bank governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike [2] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed up, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The futures index showed different volume changes [4] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank, and the Japanese central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [4][5] - **Core Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the easing of geopolitical risks strengthen the support for the stock index. The hawkish remarks of the Japanese central bank may affect the A - share market [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond futures rebounded on Monday, and the funds were loose [5] - **Important Information**: The Japanese central bank governor said to evaluate the pros and cons of raising interest rates [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The signal of the Japanese central bank's interest - rate hike may affect the A - share market and increase the rebound power of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying data [6] Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures market of container shipping to Europe strengthened, and the SCFIS declined after the market closed [7][8] - **Information Sorting**: Positive factors include the expectation of China - EU trade cooperation and the warming of the shipping sector. Negative factors include the loose supply - demand pattern, the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption, and macro - risks [8] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Silver set a new high, and gold and platinum fluctuated after rising [10] - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is stable, and the holdings of some ETFs have changed [12] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to the US data and the speeches of Fed officials [13] Copper - **Market Review**: The prices of copper futures in different markets showed different trends, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: The copper inventory decreased, and the CSPT planned to reduce the copper ore production capacity in 2026 [15][16][17] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is affected by macro - sentiment and copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [18] Zinc - **Market Review**: The price of zinc futures was strong [19] - **Industry Performance**: A zinc - lead mine project in a certain country is expected to start production [19] - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the smelting end has a willingness to reduce production due to raw material problems. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [19][20] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The price of nickel futures rose, and that of stainless steel futures fell [20] - **Industry Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel in the spot market changed, and the inventory situation was reported [20] - **Market Analysis**: They are affected by copper, and the prices of nickel ore are stable. Nickel iron has a tendency to reduce production, and the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [21] Tin - **Market Review**: The price of tin futures was blocked from rising [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply - side raw material problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [22] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the trading volume decreased while the open interest increased [22] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the lithium - battery industry chain was weak, and the prices of some products changed [23] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and there may be a short - term correction [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures changed, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends [25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries was general, and the prices of some products changed [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon will have greater fluctuations [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The price of lead futures fluctuated narrowly [27] - **Industry Performance**: A new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented in 2025 [27] - **Core Logic**: The raw material problem of primary lead has not been solved, and the production willingness of recycled lead has decreased. The import window is open, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Review**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were strong and volatile [29] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, the profit is improving, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [30][31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume in China changed [32][33] - **Core Logic**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, the demand is supported, the valuation is repaired, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: They were in a strong and volatile trend [35] - **Information Sorting**: The purchase price of coke by some steel mills was lowered, and there were environmental protection problems in some regions [35] - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes and is in a slight surplus. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills [36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Review**: They rebounded slightly, driven by coking coal and finished products [37] - **Core Logic**: The demand is expected to decline, the inventory is high, the production profit is declining, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose. There were attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and Chevron signed an exploration agreement [39] - **Core Logic**: The supply concern has increased, and the price is in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the supply surplus pressure remains, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [40] LPG - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of LPG futures and related benchmarks changed [42] - **Spot Feedback**: The average prices in different regions changed [42] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, the demand changed little, and the inventory decreased [42][43] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX decreased, and the supply of PTA had some changes. The demand of polyester was expected to be high, and the processing fee of PTA was repaired [44][45][46] - **Core Logic**: The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and the PTA - PX supply - demand structure is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual situation of blending for oil [46][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased [48] - **Device**: Some devices were restarted and some were shut down [48] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the profit of each route was repaired, and the inventory was expected to increase. The demand of polyester was expected to be high [48][49] - **Core Logic**: The downward driving force of ethylene glycol is weakening, and the inventory accumulation expectation in December is revised to a tight balance. In the long - term, the cost support will weaken, and the short - term strategy is to sell call options [49][50] PP - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PP futures decreased slightly [51] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [51] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Core Logic**: The cost support is strong, the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally, and attention should be paid to the PDH device status and the basis change [53] PE - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PE futures increased slightly [54] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [54] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory decreased [54][55][56] - **Core Logic**: The self - driving force is insufficient, the supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to be volatile after the rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot and the basis [56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased [57] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed [57] - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of pure benzene increased, and that of styrene in some places decreased and in some places increased [57] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of fuel oil futures was reported [59] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [59] - **Core Logic**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil increased in November, the demand for power generation was weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures was reported [60] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [60] - **Core Logic**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by some factors in November, the cracking was compressed, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The price of asphalt futures was reported [61] - **Spot Performance**: The average price of asphalt in the domestic market decreased, and the prices in different regions changed [61] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [61] - **Core Logic**: The spot and futures prices were stable near the integer mark, and the winter storage may face the problem of insufficient volume. After the winter storage policy is introduced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile [62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Related Information**: China's November PMI data, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the rubber inventory situation were reported [64]

Group 1 - The black commodity futures experienced a short-term rally on September 12, with coking coal main contract rising over 1% [1] - The main contracts for rebar and coking coal increased nearly 1%, while hot-rolled steel and iron ore main contracts reversed from decline to increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility in gold and silver prices, with recent movements indicating a potential for both upward and downward trends in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a dramatic fluctuation, rising from 3375 to a peak of 3439 before dropping to a low of 3268, followed by a rebound of over 80 points on the non-farm payroll day [2]. - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on resistance levels around 3375 and 3400-05, with a potential for further upward movement towards historical highs of 3500 [4]. - The market is characterized by a "big sweep" dynamic, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with expectations of a high followed by a pullback [4]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is anticipated to experience short-term rebounds, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified at 37.3, 37.7, and 38.2 [4]. - The strategy for silver involves high short positions, particularly if the market breaks below previous lows [6]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The company recommends maintaining short positions in both gold and silver, with specific price levels for entry and exit identified for optimal trading opportunities [6]. - The focus remains on monitoring key support and resistance levels to inform trading decisions, particularly in the context of recent market movements [4][6].

Group 1 - The main futures contracts in the black commodities sector experienced a slight overall increase, with iron ore and hot-rolled coil shifting from decline to growth [1] - Coking coal saw an increase of 2.09%, while coking coke's increase expanded to 1.24% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The black futures market has collectively declined, with institutions predicting a decrease of 37 million tons in China's crude steel production by 2025 compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the bottom of iron ore demand [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The black futures market is experiencing a collective downturn [1] - Institutions forecast a significant reduction in crude steel production in China by 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The anticipated decline in crude steel production raises questions about the future demand for iron ore [1]

Core Insights - The black series futures have seen an expanded decline, indicating potential challenges in the market [1] - Steel mills are increasing maintenance shutdowns during the off-season, which may impact production levels [1] - There are concerns that the demand for iron ore may have peaked, suggesting a possible shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The black series futures are experiencing significant downward pressure, reflecting broader market trends [1] - Increased maintenance shutdowns by steel mills during the off-peak season could lead to reduced output and affect supply chains [1] - The notion that iron ore demand has reached its peak raises questions about future pricing and demand sustainability [1]

Group 1 - The black commodity futures experienced a sharp rise, with iron ore main contract increasing by over 1% [1] - The rebar main contract rose by more than 0.5% [1] - The hot-rolled coil main contract reversed from a decline to an increase [1] Group 2 - The main contract for coking coal saw its decline narrow to 1.80% [1] - The main contract for coking coal also had its decline narrow to 0.52% [1]