业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 29 日，公司公布 25Q4 业绩。25Q4 营收 36.55 亿美元， 同比+43.6%，环比+14.4%。25Q4 公司 GAAP 毛利率为 11.8%，GAAP 净利润为 2.67 亿美元，同比+76%，其中有 6140 万美元来自收益 互换的衍生品。25Q4 公司 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 11.3%，Non-GAAP 净利润为 2.19 亿美元，同比+68%。 公司指引 26Q1 营收为 3.85~4.15 亿美元，Non-GAAP 营业利润率为 7.8%，Non-GAAP EPS 为 1.95~2.15 美元。公司上调全年营收至 170 亿美元（之前为 160 亿美元），26 年 Non-GAAP EPS 为 8.75 美元（之 前预期 8.2 美元），公司预计全年资本开支约 10 亿美元。 经营分析 公司数据中心快速增长，25Q4 公司云与连接解决方案收入 28.6 亿美元，同比+64%，其中交换机相关的通信终端市场收入 21.1 亿 美元，同比+79%。随着主要 ASIC 客户新一代产品的顺利量产爬坡， 公司服务器相关的企业终端市场收入 25Q4 为 7.45 ...

湘财证券发布研报称，AI大厂和全球互联网大厂投入巨额资本开支扩建数据中心，据Dell'Oro报告称， 到2029年全球数据中心资本支出的复合增长率将达到21%，AI大厂和互联网大厂的巨额资本开支计划将 推动算力集群持续扩容。算力扩容会同步放大"网络瓶颈"，使交换机从"配套件"变成提高数据中心性能 的"关键产能"，推动高速交换机需求快速增长。同时，AI服务器和高速交换机中的PCB层数不断增加， PCB使用的材料也不断升级，推动单机PCB价值量大幅提升。 湘财证券主要观点如下： Rubin架构量产有望推动PCB单机价值量提升 在10月底的GTC会议上，黄仁勋首次公开展示了Vera Rubin超级芯片，搭载了一颗代号Vera的CPU和两 颗体积庞大的Rubin GPU。在RubinUltra NVL576使用的Kyber架构中，将会应用正交背板技术，在 Switchtray、Midplane与CX9/CPX中，由多层PCB板代替铜缆直接连接。 同时，Rubin平台为实现低损耗与低延迟，全面升级制造材料，Switch Tray采用M8U等级材料(Low- Dk2+HVLP4)和24层HDI板设计，Midplane与C ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving both the quantity and price of PCBs upward, with significant growth expected in the AI PCB market [8] - The introduction of the Rubin architecture is anticipated to enhance the value of PCBs in servers, with the value of a single server's PCB expected to more than double compared to previous generations [4] - The upgrade of data center switches is also contributing to the increase in PCB value, as the number of PCB layers and material quality are improving [5] - AI server and high-speed switch demand is projected to grow rapidly, driven by substantial capital expenditures from major AI and internet companies [6][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the electronic industry has shown a relative return of 21.9% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 37.7% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a sustained recovery in consumer electronics, with new foldable smartphones being released and advancements in AI technology driving high demand for AI infrastructure [7][15] - The report emphasizes that the capital expenditure growth in data centers will lead to a compound annual growth rate of 21% by 2029, further supporting the expansion of computing power clusters [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Industrial Fulian is experiencing volatility despite strong fundamentals and increasing demand for computing power, raising questions about whether this is a risk signal or an investment opportunity as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions unfold [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The computing power industry is currently benefiting from a confluence of favorable policies, technological advancements, and surging demand, marking a significant growth phase [2] - Major global economies are prioritizing AI computing infrastructure, with initiatives like China's "East Data West Computing" project and various subsidies for enterprise-level AI deployments bolstering hardware demand [2] - The demand explosion is evident as leading cloud service providers engage in a "computing power arms race," with companies like Microsoft and Google expanding their AI infrastructure to support new applications [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Industrial Fulian has a leading market share of over 40% in high-end AI server manufacturing, with its GB300 server production exceeding market expectations [3] - Recent reports suggest that orders for the NVL72 cabinets have been secured until 2027, aligning with industry forecasts of extended order visibility for top ODM manufacturers [3] - The company's rising inventory levels and strong order visibility serve as key indicators for sustained future performance [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite positive fundamentals, Industrial Fulian's stock has faced recent fluctuations due to external factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and overall market conditions [4] - The current market volatility is seen as a temporary emotional disturbance rather than a reflection of the company's performance, with signs of stabilization in the semiconductor and computing sectors [4] - The company's stock valuation has adjusted to a reasonable range, significantly below institutional target prices, enhancing its margin of safety for long-term investors [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - 三环集团2025年归母净利润预计为2782百万，增速为27%[1] - 沪电股份2025年归母净利润预计为4042百万，增速为56%[1] - 明阳电气2025年归母净利润预计为789百万，增速为19%[1] Group 2: Revenue Growth - 三环集团2025年营业收入预计为9207百万，增速为25%[1] - 沪电股份2025年营业收入预计为18654百万，增速为40%[1] - 明阳电气2025年营业收入预计为7886百万，增速为22%[1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - AI服务器推动MLCC行业量价齐升，预计整机用量较传统架构提高300%[1] - SOFC技术迭代升级，度电成本已与燃气轮机接近平价，带来放量机会[1] - 牧原股份生猪屠宰量同比增长140%，Q3屠宰肉食业务实现单季度盈利[1]