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全品种价差日报-20250904
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided documents. 2. Core View There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists the price information of various commodities including base metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Categories Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon iron (SF511), the spot price is 5520, the futures price is 5628, and the basis is 108 with a basis rate of 3.80%. For silicon manganese (SM601), the spot price is 5950, the futures price is 5732, and the basis is 218. For rebar (RB2601), the spot price is 3230, the futures price is 3106, and the basis is 124 with a basis rate of 3.99%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the spot price is 3340, the futures price is 3299, and the basis is 41 with a basis rate of 1.24%. For iron ore (I2601), the spot price is 823, the futures price is 1603, and the basis is - 777 with a basis rate of - 46%. For coke (J2601), the spot price is 1594, the futures price is 1603, and the basis is - 9 with a basis rate of - 0.5498. For coking coal (JM2601), the spot price is 1106, the futures price is 1114, and the basis is - 8 with a basis rate of - 0.72% [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper (CU2510), the spot price is 80520, the futures price is 80110, and the basis is 410 with a basis rate of 0.51%. For aluminum (AL2510), the spot price is 20730, the futures price is 20710, and the basis is 20 with a basis rate of 0.10%. For zinc (ZN2510), the spot price is 22285, the futures price is 22170, and the basis is 115 with a basis rate of 0.5296%. For tin (SN2510), the spot price is 273100, the futures price is 273120, and the basis is - 20 with a basis rate of - 0.0073%. For nickel (NISE10), the spot price is 121775, the futures price is 121790, and the basis is - 15 with a basis rate of - 0.01%. For stainless steel (SS2510), the spot price is 13320, the futures price is 5662, and the basis is 405 with a basis rate of 3.14%. For lithium carbonate (LC2511), the spot price is 75900, the futures price is 71880, and the basis is 4020 with a basis rate of 5.59%. For industrial silicon (SI2511), the spot price is 9100, the futures price is 8490, and the basis is 610 with a basis rate of 7.18% [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2510), the spot price is 814.9, the futures price is 810.0, and the basis is 4.9 with a basis rate of 0.60%. For silver (AG2510), the spot price is 9780.0, the futures price is 9820.0, and the basis is - 40.0 with a basis rate of - 0.41% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2601), the spot price is 2990, the futures price is 3066.0, and the basis is - 76.0 with a basis rate of - 2.48%. For soybean oil (Y2601), the spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8366.0, and the basis is 134.0 with a basis rate of 1.60%. For palm oil (P2601), the spot price is 9340, the futures price is 9368.0, and the basis is - 28.0 with a basis rate of - 0.30%. For rapeseed meal (RM601), the spot price is 2580, the futures price is 2521.0, and the basis is 59.0 with a basis rate of 2.34%. For rapeseed oil (Ole01), the spot price is 9860, the futures price is 9727.0, and the basis is 133.0 with a basis rate of 1.37%. For corn (C2511), the spot price is 2290, the futures price is 2193.0, and the basis is 97.0 with a basis rate of 4.42%. For corn starch (CS2511), the spot price is 2620, the futures price is 2487.0, and the basis is 133 with a basis rate of 5.35%. For live pigs (LH251), the spot price is 14150, the futures price is 13550.0, and the basis is 600.0 with a basis rate of 4.43%. For eggs (JD2510), the spot price is 3270, the futures price is 3011.0, and the basis is 259.0 with a basis rate of 8.60%. For cotton (CF601), the spot price is 15373, the futures price is 1383.0, and the basis is 13990.0 with a basis rate of 9.89%. For white sugar (SR601), the spot price is 5562.0, the futures price is 5134.0, and the basis is 428.0 with a basis rate of 7.70%. For apples (AP510), the spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8332.0, and the basis is 268.0 with a basis rate of 3.22%. For red dates (C1601), the spot price is 11325.0, the futures price is 10722.0, and the basis is 603 with a basis rate of 6.10% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - For p - xylene (PX511), the spot price is 6901.0, the futures price is 6810.0, and the basis is 91.0 with a basis rate of 1.34%. For PTA (TA601), the spot price is 4732.0, the futures price is 4685.0, and the basis is 47.0 with a basis rate of 0.99%. For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the spot price is 4420.0, the futures price is 4331.0, and the basis is 89.0 with a basis rate of 2.05%. For styrene (EB2510), the spot price is 7060.0, the futures price is 7040.0, and the basis is 20.0 with a basis rate of 0.28%. For methanol (MA601), the spot price is 2382.0, the futures price is 2257.5, and the basis is 124.5 with a basis rate of 5.23%. For urea (UR601), the spot price is 1710.0, the futures price is 1714.0, and the basis is - 4.0 with a basis rate of - 0.23%. For LLDPE (L2601), the spot price is 7247.0, the futures price is 7250.0, and the basis is - 3.0 with a basis rate of - 0.04%. For PP (PP2601), the spot price is 6954.0, the futures price is 6965.0, and the basis is - 11.0 with a basis rate of - 0.16%. For PVC (V2601), the spot price is 4878.0, the futures price is 4680.0, and the basis is 198.0 with a basis rate of 4.06%. For caustic soda (SH601), the spot price is 2718.8, the futures price is 2612.0, and the basis is 106.8 with a basis rate of 4.09%. For LPG (PG2510), the spot price is 4408.0, the futures price is 4416.0, and the basis is - 8.0 with a basis rate of - 0.18%. For asphalt (BU2510), the spot price is 3550.0, the futures price is 3550.0, and the basis is 0.0 with a basis rate of 0.00%. For butadiene rubber (BR2510), the spot price is 12100.0, the futures price is 12099.5, and the basis is 0.5 with a basis rate of 0.004%. For glass (FG601), the spot price is 1135.0, the futures price is 1040.0, and the basis is 95.0 with a basis rate of 8.90%. For soda ash (SA601), the spot price is 1276.0, the futures price is 1176.0, and the basis is 100.0 with a basis rate of 8.43%. For natural rubber (RU2601), the spot price is 15885.0, the futures price is 15050.0, and the basis is 835.0 with a basis rate of 5.26% [1]. Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2509.CFF, the spot price is 4459.8, the futures price is 4430.0, and the basis is 29.8 with a basis rate of 0.67%. For IH2509.CHE, the spot price is 2961.0, the futures price is 2949.0, and the basis is 12.0 with a basis rate of 0.41%. For IC2509.CFE, the spot price is 6868.5, the futures price is 6788.8, and the basis is 79.7 with a basis rate of 1.17%. For IM2509.CFE, the spot price is 7206.9, the futures price is 7142.6, and the basis is 64.3 with a basis rate of 0.90% [1]. - **Bond Futures**: For 2 - year bond (TS2512), the spot price is 102.44, the futures price is 100.00, and the basis is 2.44 with a basis rate of 2.43%. For 5 - year bond (TF2512), the spot price is 99.45, the futures price is 105.69, and the basis is - 6.24 with a basis rate of - 6.27%. For 10 - year bond (T2512), the spot price is 106.50, the futures price is 108.12, and the basis is - 1.62 with a basis rate of - 1.52%. For 30 - year bond (TL2512), the spot price is 132.79, the futures price is 117.03, and the basis is 15.76 with a basis rate of 13.47% [1][4].
金十图示:2025年07月25日(周五)欧盘市场行情一览
news flash· 2025-07-25 11:03
Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) decreased by 25.160 to 1386.350, reflecting a decline of 1.78% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) fell by 18.860 to 1214.370, a decrease of 1.53% [2] - Gold (COMEX) price dropped by 27.100 to 3344.200, down by 0.80% [2] - Silver (COMEX) saw a reduction of 0.305 to 38.980, a decline of 0.78% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.15% to 1.173 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) fell by 0.38% to 1.346 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.53% to 147.773 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.38% to 0.656 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) rose by 0.21% to 0.797 [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) price decreased by 2011.510 to 116308.480, a decline of 1.70% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.610 to 114.860, up by 2.33% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) rose by 12.340 to 3718.840, an increase of 0.33% [4] - Ripple (XRP) fell by 0.017 to 3.128, down by 0.55% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 3.925, unchanged [6] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.007 to 3.978, up by 0.18% [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.009 to 4.417, an increase of 0.20% [7] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.011 to 4.961, up by 0.22% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield rose by 0.028 to 4.650, an increase of 0.61% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield increased by 0.040 to 2.733, up by 1.49% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield rose by 0.037 to 3.404, an increase of 1.10% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield increased by 0.046 to 3.611, up by 1.29% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield rose by 0.004 to 1.602, an increase of 0.25% [7]
金十图示:2025年07月23日(周三)亚盘市场行情
news flash· 2025-07-23 01:43
Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1438.550, down by 1.690 or 0.12% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1309.390, down by 10.176 or 0.77% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3435.700, down by 8.300 or 0.24% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.545, down by 0.115 or 0.29% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, down by 0.12% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.352, down by 0.08% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.575, down by 0.04% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.656, up by 0.07% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.794, up by 0.21% [3] Cryptocurrency Prices - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 119505.420, down by 449.010 or 0.37% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 120.990, up by 1.340 or 1.12% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3735.620, down by 10.590 or 0.28% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.517, down by 0.034 or 0.95% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.842, up by 0.011 or 0.29% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.896, up by 0.020 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.356, up by 0.020 or 0.46% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.927, up by 0.024 or 0.49% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.571, down by 0.001 or 0.02% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.588, down by 0.030 or 1.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.265, down by 0.032 or 0.97% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.463, down by 0.019 or 0.55% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.588, up by 0.078 or 5.17% [7]
金十图示:2025年07月21日(周一)美盘市场行情一览
news flash· 2025-07-21 13:51
Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) increased by 42.020 to 1464.260, representing a rise of 2.95% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) rose by 30.115 to 1310.230, marking an increase of 2.35% [2] - Gold (COMEX) (GC) gained 48.800 to 3404.500, reflecting a growth of 1.45% [2] - Silver (COMEX) (SI) increased by 0.835 to 39.260, showing a rise of 2.17% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) rose by 0.36% to 1.166 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) increased by 0.46% to 1.347 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) decreased by 0.82% to 147.619 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) rose by 0.19% to 0.652 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) fell by 0.32% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1556.870 to 118821.990, a rise of 1.33% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) rose by 1.260 to 117.850, reflecting an increase of 1.08% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) gained 53.840 to 3810.530, marking a rise of 1.43% [4] - Ripple (XRP) increased by 0.106 to 3.559, showing a growth of 3.06% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond decreased by 0.014 to 3.861, a decline of 0.36% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond fell by 0.037 to 3.924, down by 0.93% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 0.057 to 4.374, a decline of 1.29% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond fell by 0.055 to 4.944, down by 1.10% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond decreased by 0.054 to 4.620, a decline of 1.16% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond fell by 0.070 to 2.622, down by 2.60% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond decreased by 0.091 to 3.306, a decline of 2.68% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond fell by 0.084 to 3.494, an increase of 2.35% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond decreased by 0.008 to 1.519, down by 0.52% [7]
金十图示:2025年07月03日(周四)欧盘市场行情一览
news flash· 2025-07-03 11:06
Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1380.163, down by 41.987, representing a decrease of 2.95% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1138.750, down by 24.778, reflecting a decrease of 2.13% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3363.700, down by 5.000, showing a slight decrease of 0.15% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 37.130, up by 0.340, indicating an increase of 0.92% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.179, down by 0.03% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.366, up by 0.20% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 143.847, up by 0.14% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.657, down by 0.15% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.793, up by 0.09% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 109839.380, up by 989.790, reflecting an increase of 0.91% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 91.440, up by 4.120, indicating an increase of 4.72% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 2598.210, up by 27.660, showing an increase of 1.08% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.300, up by 0.066, reflecting an increase of 2.96% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.756 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.840, down by 0.030, a decrease of 0.78% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.260, down by 0.030, a decrease of 0.70% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.789, down by 0.034, a decrease of 0.70% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.534, down by 0.087, a decrease of 1.88% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.577, down by 0.043, a decrease of 1.64% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.279, down by 0.041, a decrease of 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.489, down by 0.051, a decrease of 1.44% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.441, up by 0.002, an increase of 0.14% [7]
宏观金融数据日报-20250613
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 07:43
股 指 行 情 綜 述 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/6/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 较前值变动 | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 0.47 | DR007 | 1.54 | 1.10 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.49 | -4.50 | GC007 | 1.57 | -1.00 | | ਜ | SHBOR 3M | 1.64 | -0.30 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | -10.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | 0.50 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.41 | -6.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-29)-20250529
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].