国庆假期新能源行业变化主题会 20251008 摘要 固态电池技术取得进展，中科院多项研究聚焦改善固固界面导电性，但 产业界认为 600 兆帕等静压工艺不适合大规模量产，需材料端突破。 储能行业全球需求旺盛，多地 GWh 级别项目招标，中国企业积极拓展 欧洲市场，大电芯（如 628 电芯）成为趋势，可显著降低成本，提升单 位盈利。 储能系统硬件故障率高、效率偏低是主要问题，19%的储能电站存在硬 件故障，仅 30%实现 88%的效率，高效储能解决方案需求迫切。 新能源汽车市场国内平稳增长，海外增速显著，预计 2026 年锂电子板 块增速接近 30%，储能和海外动力电池是主要拉动因素。 绿氢项目投资增加，金峰与仙盟签订甲醇二期、三期投资协议，IMO 可 能通过更严格的船舶排放法规，利好绿氢产业发展。 海外算力基础设施需求超预期增长，鸿海 AI 服务器业务显著增长，但美 国电网老化可能制约其 AI 发展，国内 AIDC 板块亦值得关注。 风电行业龙头企业业绩创新高，海上风电前景广阔，推荐韵达、金峰、 明阳等核心标的，关注中国高速传动管理层变动带来的市场机会。 Q&A 600 兆帕的等静压工艺不适合大规模量产，因为 ...

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights a recovery in the prices of domestic cyclical goods and an improvement in service consumption, particularly in first-tier cities where real estate sales have shown significant growth [1][11] - The construction demand has marginally improved, supported by ongoing anti-involution policies in industries like steel and coal, leading to price increases in coal, steel, and glass [1][11] - Service consumption has seen a month-on-month increase, with tourism in Hainan showing signs of recovery and a substantial rebound in movie box office revenues due to new film releases [1][11] Group 2: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 68.8% increase in transaction area [2][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slight easing of price pressures in the car market [2][12] - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, and movie box office revenues surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [2][12] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand has shown slight improvement, with policies supporting steady growth in the steel industry leading to minor price increases [3][13] - Manufacturing activity has generally improved, with increased operating rates in sectors like automotive and chemicals [3][13] - Long-distance passenger transport demand has improved, with logistics activity also showing a month-on-month increase [3][13] Group 4: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling needs [3][13] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve [3][13] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights on Supermicro - Supermicro is positioned uniquely in the market, combining independent product development with custom manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM models [5][26] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected total revenues of $31.82 billion, $38.44 billion, and $49.55 billion for 2026E to 2028E [5][25] - Supermicro's product performance is notable, with its AI server product line keeping pace with chip updates, and it actively collaborates with the open-source community to optimize AI cluster software [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][14]. Core Views - The OmniBot platform has achieved an end-to-end closed loop from cloud simulation to physical deployment, marking a new phase in robot development [4][5]. - The domestic robotics industry is experiencing significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8% in the first half of the year, and humanoid robots growing nearly 40% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expanding server remanufacturing market, which is entering a "compliance refurbishment + performance upgrade" cycle [9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock has shown impressive performance over the past year, with a 396.1% increase compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 36.2% [3]. Business Developments - The OmniBot platform integrates NVIDIA's simulation environment and robot intelligence models with its own cloud platform, significantly lowering development barriers and costs [5]. - The company has completed a bank credit application of 20.5 billion yuan and is advancing its H-share listing plan to enhance its financial base [7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%, and a net profit of 432 million yuan, up 20.76% [10]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 2.867 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year growth of 57.58%, with a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 34.42% [10]. Revenue Breakdown - Smart computing products and services generated 1.221 billion yuan in revenue, doubling year-on-year [10]. - Server peripherals and remanufacturing contributed 835 million yuan, also showing a significant increase of 119.49% year-on-year [11]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.879 billion yuan, 17.261 billion yuan, and 23.640 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.255 billion yuan, 1.856 billion yuan, and 2.612 billion yuan [11][13]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 are 3.62 yuan, 5.36 yuan, and 7.55 yuan, with P/E ratios of 47.45, 32.08, and 22.79, respectively [11][14].

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights a gradual convergence of overseas central bank policies, impacting asset allocation strategies [3][28] - In the A-share market, major indices saw significant gains in early September, with the CSI 100 and CSI 500 indices rising by 4.45% and 6.33% respectively [3][28] - The central bank's net cash injection was 196.1 billion yuan, maintaining a loose liquidity environment with DR007 staying below 1.48% [3][28] Group 2: Agricultural Bank of China - The Agricultural Bank of China is expected to benefit from the release of potential in county economies, with greater credit growth opportunities compared to peers [4] - The bank has the lowest non-performing loan ratio among its peers, with a strong ability to manage risks related to real estate exposure [4] - Future profit growth is projected at 1.98%, 3.94%, and 4.63% for 2025-2027, with corresponding BPS values of 7.69, 8.12, and 8.53 yuan [4] Group 3: Unmanned Forklifts Industry - The unmanned forklift market is experiencing rapid growth, with shipments increasing from 2,700 units in 2019 to an estimated 19,500 units in 2023, representing a penetration rate of 1.66% [6] - The market size for unmanned forklifts in China is projected to reach 2.385 billion USD in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market [6] - Major players in the industry include Linde, Hangcha, and Geek+, with significant advancements in technology and market share [6][10] Group 4: Communication Sector - Runxin Technology - Runxin Technology reported a revenue of 1.358 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 16.42% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 18.23% [13][34] - The company is focusing on AIoT and automotive electronics, diversifying its revenue sources and enhancing long-term growth potential [34] - The firm has established strong partnerships with leading semiconductor suppliers, which bolsters its competitive edge in the market [34] Group 5: Semiconductor Testing Industry - Weicet Technology - Weicet Technology achieved a revenue of 634 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 47.53% increase, with net profit soaring by 831.03% [36][39] - The company is expanding its testing capacity for high-end and reliable chips, with significant investments in new facilities [37] - The semiconductor market is expected to maintain optimistic growth, driven by advancements in AI and automotive electronics [39] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - China Resources Pharmaceutical - China Resources Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 131.867 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 2.5% increase, while net profit decreased by 20.3% due to impairment losses [21] - The company is focusing on external growth through acquisitions and innovation in its pharmaceutical business [21] - The firm has successfully launched 21 new products in H1 2025, with a robust pipeline of 476 projects under development [21]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential adjustments to the dot plot, influenced by the labor market and economic momentum [2][3] - The US CPI showed moderate performance in August, indicating manageable tariff impacts, while the jobless claims rose mainly due to disturbances in Texas [2][3] - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities, with industrial production indicators slightly improving [3][4] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market has seen a rebound, with a focus on sector trends and a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, while maintaining a high trading volume [4] - Investment recommendations include sectors such as domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] - The market is expected to maintain a positive mid-term outlook, with a focus on value and growth [4] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 30% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, with expectations for further revaluation of Hong Kong stocks [5][7] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, there are unique characteristics in the Hong Kong market that support continued investment [5][7] - The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks has improved but remains cautious, indicating a need for careful valuation comparisons [7] Group 4: Fixed Income and Debt Market - The bond market is experiencing changes due to new regulations and potential shifts in institutional dynamics, with expectations of slight upward pressure on interest rates [16] - The demand for long-term bonds may weaken, while the short-term bond market is advised to remain cautious and flexible [16] - The overall bond market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on mid-term strategies and selective trading [16] Group 5: Energy and Power Sector - National electricity generation is estimated to increase by 3.7% year-on-year in August, driven by various energy sources [18] - The new storage action plan aims to enhance the profitability of the domestic energy storage sector, with strong demand anticipated [21] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see reduced price volatility in 2026, with ongoing construction projects contributing to value growth [27] Group 6: Technology and AI Sector - TSMC is expected to benefit from advanced process pricing power and demand for advanced packaging, with a target price adjustment reflecting strong growth prospects [24] - Industrial Fulian is positioned to gain from the expanding AI server market, with profit forecasts adjusted upward [25] - Baidu's AI capabilities are anticipated to reshape its long-term narrative, with several undervalued business assets expected to be revalued positively [30]

Market Performance - On September 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.23%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - The number of declining sectors outnumbered those that rose, with real estate, non-ferrous metals, commerce, and food and beverage sectors showing gains, while electronics and computer sectors experienced declines[1] - The precious metals sector saw an upward trend due to rising gold prices, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,070 yuan per gram[5] Fund Flow - On September 9, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 2.117 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 8.788 billion yuan[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were batteries, precious metals, and automotive parts, while the sectors with the highest outflows were semiconductors, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic equipment[4] Investment Trends - Institutional investors conducted over 47,000 company surveys in the past month, focusing on industry conditions and company performance[14] - Active equity fund stock positions have surpassed 90%, reaching the highest level since March 2021[14] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote high-quality development in the AI industry and will introduce an implementation plan for AI + manufacturing[6] - China's manufacturing robot density has reached 470 units per 10,000 people, significantly exceeding the global average[12]

Summary of Unisplendour Corporation's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Unisplendour Corporation (紫光股份) - **Industry**: AI Servers, Data Center Switches, and Domestic Chip Manufacturing Key Points AI Server and White Box Server Performance - AI server revenue reached 6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while white box server revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [2][4] - Despite a low gross margin of 6-7% for white box servers, overall revenue growth led to a substantial increase in gross profit, reflecting the rapid development of the domestic AI industry [2][4] Switch Business Growth - The switch business grew over 20% in the first half of 2025, with data center switches accounting for over 50% of total sales, up from 40% the previous year [5] - High-speed switches (400G/800G) are expected to double, currently representing over 25% of the switch business [5] Product Development and Innovations - Unisplendour launched a 64-card single cabinet self-developed brand, targeting major internet companies, with mass production expected in Q4 2025 [6] - Plans for liquid-cooled servers are set to enter a high-growth phase in 2026, with active expansion at the Zhejiang factory and increased outsourcing demand [6] Domestic Chip Utilization - The company is increasingly using domestic chips such as Kunlun, Cambricon, and Pingtouge, while the proportion of imported GPU cards is declining [7][8] - Domestic switching chips, like those from Shengke Communication, have entered commercialization, with an increasing share in high-end models [9] Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, overall performance exceeded market expectations, with a growth rate of over 25% in revenue and core profit [3] - The subsidiary, H3C, showed remarkable performance with over 40% revenue growth, contributing approximately 70% to Unisplendour's total revenue [3] Market Outlook - The domestic market for AI computing cards is projected to see a significant increase, with expected shipments surpassing 5 million units in 2026 due to import restrictions [12] - The overall growth rate for the company is anticipated to be better in the second half of 2025, driven by increased procurement from operators and internet companies [11] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Unisplendour's current valuation is considered advantageous, with significant potential for upward adjustment in earnings quality and valuation as server and switch businesses improve [13] - Companies like Shengke Communication and Filin Kosi are recommended for attention due to their growth potential alongside Unisplendour [14] Traditional Suppliers - Traditional suppliers like ZTE are also expected to perform well in the switch market, with positive changes in revenue and profit growth driven by AI business [15]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the focus on domestic economic policy changes driven by anti-involution and the Fourth Plenary Session [1] Fixed Income - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to shrink their balance sheets, citing factors such as economic slowdown, loose monetary policy, and the government's call for financial services to support the real economy [2] - It notes that while some small and medium-sized banks may consider balance sheet reduction, the overall probability for the industry is low [2] Industry Analysis New Industries - The company reported a revenue of 2.185 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 771 million yuan, down 14.62% [4] - The overseas market showed strong performance with a revenue of 954 million yuan, an increase of 19.62% [5] - Domestic revenue was 1.229 billion yuan, down 12.81%, with a notable decline in reagent business [5] BYD Electronics - The company achieved a revenue of 80.61 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, up 14% [6] - The new energy vehicle business saw a revenue increase of 60.5% to 12.45 billion yuan, driven by smart cabin and driving products [6] Pinduoduo - The company’s profit exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 [9] Northern Huachuang - The company is benefiting from the domestic semiconductor equipment platform trend, with a focus on expanding its product line through acquisitions [10] Wan Ye Enterprises - The company reported a turnaround in H1 2025, driven by rapid growth in bismuth materials and semiconductor equipment [11] Horizon Robotics - The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 68% increase, with significant growth in chip shipments [12] BeiGene - The company’s core product sales are expected to drive revenue growth, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [14] Jiuzhoutong - The company reported a revenue of 81.106 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.1% increase, with a net profit of 1.446 billion yuan, up 19.7% [15] Fenzhong Media - The company maintains a steady growth trajectory, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [16] High Measurement Co. - The company is entering the humanoid robot market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment [17] Tian Nai Technology - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the potential of single-wall carbon tubes [18] Hailiang Co. - The company is expected to see significant growth in the U.S. market, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [19] Sanofi - The company reported a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong performance in the overseas market [20] Xue Da Education - The company is positioned as a leading personalized education provider, with stable growth in its training business [22] Blue Sky Gas - The company is committed to high dividend payouts, with a focus on improving cash flow despite lower profits in H1 2025 [23] Haitian Precision - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on earnings but is steadily advancing its capacity and channel development [24] Solidarity Hall - The company is leveraging AI and overseas expansion to enhance its business model and revenue potential [25] Shoulu Hotel - The company is optimizing its hotel operations and expanding its footprint, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [27] Changhua Group - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, driven by new product launches and customer acquisition [28] SF Express - The company is entering a growth phase, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [29] Oil and Gas Sector - The company is experiencing rapid growth in oil and gas production, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [30] Alibaba - The company is focusing on cloud business growth and AI investments, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 being adjusted [31] Ding Sheng New Materials - The company is experiencing strong growth in battery foil shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted [32] BYD - The company is facing increased competition, leading to adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [34] Okai Yi - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit forecasts for 2025-2026 being adjusted downward [35] Maiwei Biotech - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, focusing on strategic drug development [36] United Imaging - The company reported a revenue of 6.016 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets [37]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown strong performance in August, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points, reaching a ten-year high, and significant trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 13 consecutive trading days [7][12][47] - The report highlights that sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while banking, coal, and steel sectors lagged behind [12][48] - The report suggests that the market has room for further upward movement in September, driven by favorable liquidity conditions and potential policy support from the government [7][43][47] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the financial, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment sectors for investment in September, recommending an overweight position in these industries [48][49] - The TMT sector is particularly highlighted due to the strong performance of major tech companies, with significant capital expenditures directed towards cloud computing and AI, indicating robust growth potential [53] - The financial sector is noted for its resilience, with insurance companies like Ping An increasing their stakes in other firms, reflecting a positive outlook for long-term value in the insurance industry [49][52]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the domestic AI infrastructure investment market, with a projected investment space of approximately $50 billion and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth opportunities for domestic computing power chip manufacturers, driven by the anticipated demand from core internet companies and large model vendors [1][6]. - Alibaba's substantial capital expenditure increase, with a three-year investment target of 380 billion yuan, reflects its commitment to computing power investment, bolstering market confidence in domestic AI chip development [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the demand for domestic computing power in 2026 will be primarily driven by the growth in token consumption by core internet companies and large model vendors, as well as emerging multimodal applications [6][7]. Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure Investment - Nvidia estimates that the AI infrastructure investment space in mainland China is around $50 billion, with a potential chip market of $20 to $30 billion, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic chip manufacturers [1][4]. Alibaba's Capital Expenditure - Alibaba's capital expenditure has significantly increased, with a target of 380 billion yuan over three years, showcasing its determination in computing power investment and enhancing market sentiment towards domestic AI chips [5][6]. Future Demand Drivers - The primary drivers for domestic computing power demand in 2026 include significant growth in token consumption by core internet companies and large model vendors, alongside new multimodal applications like video generation and coding tools [6][7]. Edge AI in Consumer Electronics - Edge AI currently has low attention in consumer electronics, but with the explosion of cloud computing power and advancements from major players like Apple and Meta, products such as smartphones and glasses are expected to become important entry points for edge AI hardware [8]. Server Assembly and PCB Sector Changes - Industrial Fulian is benefiting from the growth in AI server volumes and increased profits per cabinet, driven by the release of GB200 and expectations for GB300 [9][10]. - The PCB sector is experiencing a high demand environment, with a focus on the share of different manufacturers in NV and AC customers, as well as the verification rhythm of CP300 [10].