行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 2026 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 升跌（%） | | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,710 | 1.38 | 4.21 | | 恒生国企 | 9,244 | 1.05 | 3.71 | | 恒生科技 | 5,825 | 1.46 | 5.61 | | 上证综指 | 4,084 | 1.50 | 2.89 | | 深证综指 | 2,618 | 1.40 | 3.43 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,319 | 0.75 | 3.63 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,462 | 0.99 | 2.91 | | 500 美国标普 | 6,945 | 0.62 | 1.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,547 | 0.65 | 1.31 | | 德国 DAX | 24,892 | 0.09 | 1.64 | | 法国 CAC | 8,237 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor equipment industry, particularly benefiting from the AI-driven demand surge in storage solutions [1][27]. Core Insights - The AI technology evolution is significantly increasing storage demand, leading to a supply-demand gap that is pushing prices higher. DRAM prices are expected to rise by approximately 58% year-on-year in 2026, with industry revenue projected to grow by about 85%, surpassing $300 billion for the first time [1]. - The NAND Flash market is also anticipated to see a 21% year-on-year increase in supply volume by 2026, with revenue reaching $110.5 billion, reflecting a 58% increase [1]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to experience a new wave of rapid growth due to the advancements in storage technology and the expansion projects of local firms [1][27]. - Companies like Broadcom and Google are showing strong performance and optimistic forecasts regarding AI-related revenues, indicating robust growth in the semiconductor sector [1][27]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow significantly, with key equipment such as etching and thin film deposition expected to see growth rates of 1.7x and 1.8x, respectively [1]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic manufacturers in the semiconductor equipment supply chain, especially in light of international supply chain constraints [1][24]. AI-PCB and Core Computing Hardware - The demand for AI-PCB is strong, with many companies reporting full production and sales, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory into the next year [4][27]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI-driven products, particularly in the consumer electronics sector, with Apple expected to benefit significantly from AI integration in its devices [5][27]. Storage Market - The storage market is entering a clear upward trend, driven by increased demand from cloud service providers and consumer electronics, with significant price increases expected for DRAM and NAND Flash products [21][23]. - The report suggests that the storage sector will see a resurgence in capital expenditures as companies prepare for increased demand [23][27]. Passive Components and Display Panels - The passive components market is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI applications, with significant growth in MLCC and other components [19][21]. - The display panel market is stabilizing, with effective production control measures in place, ensuring steady pricing and supply [20][21]. IC Design and Semiconductor Materials - The IC design sector is projected to see continued growth, particularly in the memory segment, as demand from cloud service providers increases [21][23]. - The semiconductor materials market is also expected to improve as production capacity increases and domestic suppliers gain market share [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the technology sector, particularly focusing on AI computing infrastructure and end-side AI innovations [1][24]. Core Insights - The global technology industry is expected to experience a dual trend of differentiated terminal demand and accelerated AI innovation by 2026, driven by rapid iterations of AI large models [1][24]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) AI computing infrastructure, where VR/ASIC architecture upgrades will drive growth in ODM and component suppliers; 2) End-side AI innovations, particularly in AI smartphones, PCs, and glasses, with companies like Luxshare Precision, Hontai Precision, BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, AAC Technologies, and Xiaomi Group being key players [1][24]. Summary by Sections Server Market - The global server market is projected to be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units in 2026 [2][25]. - The market will see a "GPU/ASIC dual-drive" pattern, with VR/ASIC architecture reshaping value and driving demand for connectors, cables, and power supply components [2][25]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by 5% year-on-year to 1.18 billion units in 2026, primarily affecting low-end models due to macro uncertainties and rising storage costs [2][25]. - However, the high-end market remains resilient, with Apple expected to launch innovative products, including the first foldable iPhone and AI-driven devices [2][25]. AR/VR Market - The report forecasts that global AI glasses shipments will exceed 10 million units by 2026, marking a significant growth in the wearable technology sector [2][25]. - Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in AR/VR, with advancements in optical technologies expected to unlock further potential in the coming years [2][25]. PC and Automotive Electronics - The global PC market is expected to face challenges, with a projected 2% decline in shipments to 275 million units in 2026, influenced by the end of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle and rising storage costs [2][25]. - AI PCs are expected to penetrate the market significantly, with projections indicating that they will account for over 50% of shipments by 2026 [2][25]. Memory Price Impact - The report discusses the impact of rising memory prices on the technology supply chain, predicting that short-term pressures will affect mid-to-low-end consumer markets while high-end products may buffer the cost increases [27][30].

计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -17% -11% -4% 2% 8% 15% 21% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 《计算机行业年度策略：AI 应用加快，全球格 局重塑中》 2025-12-01 《计算机行业分析报告：十五五规划建议的信 息科技领域内容解读》 2025-10-31 《计算机行业月报：鸿蒙迎来重要升级，AI 算 力需求多元化趋势明显》 2025-10-23 联系人：李智 预训练规模 ——计算机行业月报 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 风险提示：国际局势的不确定性；海外 AI 产业竞争格局变化带来市 场调整风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共50页 手机端 AI 应用加速，DeepSeek 将加大 投资要点： 电话： 0371-65585629 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Alibaba Key Points - **Financial Performance**: Alibaba's EBITDA decreased by 78% year-on-year, primarily due to rapid expansion in e-commerce and cloud businesses, along with significant investments in retail, user experience, and technology, leading to a net profit decline of 53% to 21 billion yuan. Operating cash flow fell by 168% to 100.1 billion yuan [2][3] - **Revenue Breakdown**: - E-commerce group revenue accounted for 16% of total revenue, with customer management revenue at 10%. Instant retail saw strong growth of 60% to 22.9 billion yuan. - International digital commerce group revenue increased by 10% to 35 billion yuan, benefiting from supply chain advantages. - Cloud intelligence business revenue grew by 44% year-on-year to 39.8 billion yuan, driven by public cloud and AI-related products [2][5][6] - **AI Market Position**: Alibaba Cloud holds a 35.8% market share in China's AI sector, significantly outperforming competitors. The company has invested approximately 120 billion yuan in AI and cloud technology infrastructure over the past four quarters [2][6] Company: Dell Key Points - **Financial Performance**: Dell's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by 11% year-on-year to 27 billion USD. Infrastructure solutions, including servers and networking, grew rapidly by 37%, accounting for 24% of total revenue. The company has raised its full-year revenue forecast to between 111.2 billion and 112.2 billion USD, with AI server shipments expected to reach 25 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of over 150% [2][7] Industry Insights - **Storage Market Conditions**: The storage market is currently experiencing significant supply constraints, with major manufacturers indicating tight supply. Prices have risen sharply in the fourth quarter, with large manufacturers willing to accept price increases of 30-50%. Demand is expected to remain tight in the first quarter of next year, with potential easing in the second quarter. Gartner predicts a 40-50% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM prices [4][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Focus on the storage industry chain, including companies like Baiwei Storage and Jiangbolong. - PCB industry chain investments, including Shenghong Technology and Hudian Co. - Domestic computing power direction, with attention to companies like SMIC. - Upcoming IPOs such as Muxi and Moer Thread, which are expected to be key players in advanced process requirements next year [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI-PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controllable beneficiary industries [1][4][26]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI remains strong, with significant growth expected in ASICs driven by the explosive increase in token numbers from major players like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft [1][4][26]. - The report highlights the impressive performance of Google's Gemini 3, which supports a large context window and introduces innovative features like the Deep Think mode, enhancing AI capabilities [1]. - The North American cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to sustain high capital expenditures, with room for further increases, indicating a robust investment environment in the AI sector [1][4]. - The report suggests that the AI demand will lead to a strong recovery in the PCB market, with many AI-PCB companies experiencing full production and sales [26]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - Apple has launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AR glasses, which are expected to drive demand in the AI edge product market [5]. - The report anticipates a surge in AI-related product releases in late 2025 and 2026, benefiting from Apple's integrated hardware and software ecosystem [5]. 2. PCB - Despite a slight decline in shipments due to the October holiday, the PCB industry maintains a high growth rate year-on-year, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors [7]. - The report indicates that the PCB market is expected to remain robust, with price increases for raw materials like copper-clad laminates [7]. 3. Components - The AI data center's demand is expected to boost passive components, with increased usage of MLCCs and inductors in AI mobile devices [18]. - The LCD panel prices have stabilized, and production control measures are in place to maintain market balance [18]. 4. IC Design - The report is optimistic about the memory sector, predicting a price increase for DRAM due to rising demand from cloud service providers [20][22]. - The overall trend in the semiconductor industry is upward, with increased capital expenditures and demand for enterprise-level storage solutions [22]. 5. Semiconductor Manufacturing - The report notes a shift towards self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain due to export controls, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their production capabilities [23]. - The advanced packaging sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [23][24]. 6. Specific Companies - Companies like 三环集团 (SanHuan Group) and 兆易创新 (GigaDevice) are noted for their strong financial performance and growth prospects in the AI and semiconductor sectors [30][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like 北方华创 (North China Innovation) and 中微公司 (SMIC) in advancing semiconductor equipment technology and production capabilities [31][34].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a successful wave of PC upgrades driven by Windows 11, with stable profit margins reflecting supply chain resilience. Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 have been raised, indicating strong growth potential [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY2026Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and a non-GAAP net profit of $512 million, up 25.2%, with a net profit margin of 2.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The IDG segment generated revenue of $15.11 billion, growing 11.8% year-on-year, with Lenovo's PC shipment growth outpacing the industry at 17.3% compared to 9.4% [1]. - The ISG segment achieved revenue of $4.087 billion, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, with strong demand for AI servers, although it reported an operating profit margin of -2.7%, indicating a narrowing loss rate [1]. - The SSG segment's revenue reached $2.556 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year, with deferred revenue of $3.6 billion, reflecting a 17% increase and enhancing business predictability [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - The company demonstrates strong supply chain resilience, effectively managing price fluctuations in components due to its significant purchasing power and superior bargaining capabilities compared to peers [2]. - The stable performance of the IDG segment and the narrowing loss rate in the ISG segment serve as evidence of the company's ability to adapt to cost impacts through product and customer structure adjustments [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, with significant advancements in AI models and increasing capital expenditures from cloud service providers, driving demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure [8][20][39] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with AI driving a potential super cycle in the memory sector, as domestic manufacturers enhance their competitive advantages in technology and supply chains [11][18][19] - The electronic industry has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 38.35% compared to the CSI 300's 16.85% [18][19] Group 2 - Major cloud companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with North American cloud providers collectively spending $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase, to support AI infrastructure [39][40] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of AI server demand, with the global AI server market projected to reach $158.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% from 2024 to 2028 [51][53] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as AI computing chips, AI PCBs, and memory modules, recommending specific companies for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [11][12][52]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing collective anxiety, with Nvidia being seen as a potential savior as it prepares to release its Q3 earnings report, which could significantly influence market direction in the coming weeks [1][2]. Market Sentiment - There is a pervasive sense of tension across various asset classes, including Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, and corporate bonds, all facing selling pressure [1]. - Bitcoin has dropped 29% from its peak this year, indicating a shift to negative returns [2]. - Non-profitable U.S. tech companies have seen their stock prices decline, reflecting a loss of patience among investors, including retail investors [6]. Nvidia's Earnings Importance - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is deemed crucial, as it will reflect the real returns on the substantial AI investments made by major tech companies [1][9]. - Analysts expect Nvidia's Q3 net profit and revenue to grow by over 50% [13]. - The company's stock has risen 35% this year, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 index, which has increased by about 17% [10]. Analyst Expectations - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nvidia's earnings, with expectations that the company will exceed revenue forecasts of approximately $55 billion, potentially reaching $63-64 billion [12][13]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue expectations for Nvidia, indicating a substantial increase in demand from cloud service providers [18]. Supply Chain and Capacity Concerns - Nvidia's growth is currently limited by supply chain capacity rather than demand, with significant AI computing needs exceeding supply [16]. - The company has a backlog of over 70,000 racks for 2026, surpassing its maximum production capacity for the year [16]. Market Risks and Investor Behavior - Despite optimism regarding Nvidia's earnings, there are growing concerns about AI investments, as evidenced by significant hedge fund sell-offs of Nvidia shares [20]. - The market is wary of potential cutbacks in commitments from major AI spenders, which could lead to unreliable revenue projections [20][21]. - Analysts are closely monitoring Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter, as expectations for revenue may be high but could also be conservative [21].