市场对国产算力的担忧主要源于关税、贸易战及 H20 禁令，导致资本开 支下滑，但 5 月起海外推理和应用端需求回升，表明商业闭环已形成， 如 ASIC 推理芯片、甲骨文算力租赁及 Google TOKEN 量增加。 国产算力板块盈利能力改善，以交换机为代表的细分领域业绩显现，估 值角度优于新易盛、旭创等公司，PB 角度也更具优势，核心矛盾逐步解 决。 中兴通讯作为重点标的，具备业绩释放和技术突破双线驱动。虽 2025 年受运营商资本开支下滑影响，但预计 2026 年 5G 投资恢复，算力侧 资本开支增加，且在 GPU 芯片、交换芯片等核心领域布局领先。 近期美国对半导体加征关税虽短期利空，但长期将推动国内芯片技术进 步。Deepsec 发布 V3.1 版本模型，提出针对下一代国产芯片设计的新 精度标准，表明国内企业技术突破显著。 海外 GPU 供应存在不确定性，国内寒武纪、昆仑芯和沐曦等企业在 GPU 领域取得进展，DS 计划在下一代产品中使用国产芯片，国产算力 景气度提升。 中兴通讯 20250824 摘要 Q&A 我们推荐国产算力的原因主要有两个方面。首先，全球 AI 产业变革过程中， 2025 年上半年 ...

联想集团(00992) 证券研究报告 计算机设备 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.08.21 全球 PC 龙头，2Q25AI PC 加速渗透 投资评级:增持(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-08-21 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.97 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | 每股净资产(美元) | 0.63 | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -18% -5% 8% 21% 35% 48% 联想集团 恒生指数 分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (美元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 56,864 | 69,077 | 77,381 | 83,682 | 91,225 | | 收入增长率(%) | -8.21 | 21.48 | ...

AI 基建投资仍处于早期阶段，板块行情演绎有 望持续 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] AI 基建投资仍处于早期阶段，板块行情 演绎有望持续 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 17 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http: ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5][66]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth driven by AI infrastructure and high demand for related products, particularly in the optical communication and AI server sectors [4][66]. - Major domestic optical communication companies are seeing rapid revenue growth, with significant contributions from high-speed optical modules [2][31]. - The three major telecom operators are showing stable performance with increasing dividends, indicating a solid investment opportunity [4][42]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, with net profit rising by 38.61% [13]. - Lumentum's cloud computing and networking business grew by 66.5%, with Q4 revenue reaching $480.7 million, up 55.9% year-on-year [21][22]. - AVC's revenue for H1 2025 was 52.927 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 66.48% increase, driven by strong demand for AI server cooling and chassis products [25]. Domestic Optical Communication Companies - Huagong Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 7.629 billion yuan, up 44.66%, with net profit increasing by 44.87% [31]. - Taicheng Technology achieved a revenue of 828 million yuan in H1 2025, a 62.49% increase, with net profit rising by 118.02% [36][37]. Telecom Operators Performance - China Mobile reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5%, but net profit increased by 5.0% [48]. - China Telecom's revenue grew by 1.3% to 269.4 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 5.5% [48]. - China Unicom's revenue reached 200.2 billion yuan, up 1.5%, with net profit growing by 5.1% [48]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index rose by 7.66%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.37% [3][62]. - The optical module and device sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing infrastructure, particularly in optical communication and domestic computing sectors [4][66]. - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [4][66].

FY2026Q1 公司收入188.3 亿美元，同比增长21.9%，non-gaap 归母净利润3.89亿美元，同比增长 21.8%，净利率2.1%（同比持平），分业务看： 机构：开源证券 研究员：张可/杨哲 关税影响有望逐步弱化，下半年AI PC 加速渗透在即 受益于AI PC 加速渗透、AI 服务器需求旺盛、软硬协同强化，联想三大业务有望延续增长韧性，考虑 到ISG 亏损带来业绩不确定性，我们下调FY2026-2028财年non-gaap归母净利润至16.7/19.6/23.0亿美元 （前次为17.3/21.9/26.6亿美元），同比增长15.9%/17.2%/17.5%，考虑潜在可转债摊薄，当前股价对应 PE 估值为12.3/10.5/8.9 倍，维持"买入"评级。 FY2026Q1 AI 渗透率提升超预期，研发投入致使ISG 呈现亏损 （1）IDG：实现收入134.6 亿美元，2025Q2 联想/行业PC 出货量同比增长15.2%/6.5%（IDC 数据），联 想明显优于行业，系win11 换机潮背景下的国补+AIPC 渗透率提升，2Q25Q2 联想AI PC 在全球PC 出货 量占比已达到31%，超我 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported strong financial performance for 1QFY26, with revenue reaching $18.83 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, marking a record high for the first quarter [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1QFY26 was $18.83 billion, up 22% year-on-year, with significant growth across regions: China (+36%), Asia Pacific (+39%), Americas (+14%), and EMEA (+9%) [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit was $389 million, a 22% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $505 million, up 108% [1] - The increase in net profit was partly due to a non-cash fair value gain of $152 million related to warrants and nominal interest of $27.82 million from convertible bonds [1] Business Trends - The PC business showed strong growth, with IDG revenue increasing by 17.8% to $13.46 billion, and personal PC revenue growing by 21.9%, the fastest growth in 15 quarters [1] - Lenovo's global PC shipment growth of 15.2% outpaced the industry average of 6.5%, leading to a market share of 24.6% [1] - AI PC shipments accounted for over 30% of total PC shipments in 2Q25, with a 27% share in the Chinese market, highlighting Lenovo's leadership in the AI PC sector [1] - The "Tianxi" personal super intelligent system has seen increased user engagement, with a weekly active user ratio averaging 40% by the end of 2Q25 [1] AI Infrastructure - ISG revenue reached $4.29 billion, a 36% year-on-year increase, despite an operating loss of $86 million due to lower margins from AI server sales and increased R&D investments [2] - AI infrastructure revenue grew by 155% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [2] - In China, ISG revenue increased by 76%, with improved profitability and a 3 percentage point rise in operating profit margin [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has cautiously raised FY2026/27 non-HKFRS net profit estimates by 2.3% and 2.8% to $1.687 billion and $1.968 billion, respectively [2] - Current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10.3x for FY2026 and 8.8x for FY2027, with a target price of HKD 13.40, indicating a 24% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Lenovo is expected to benefit from the accelerated penetration of AI PCs and strong demand for AI servers, despite short-term pressure on ISG profitability due to increased R&D investments. The non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 have been adjusted to $1.67 billion, $1.96 billion, and $2.30 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 17.2%, and 17.5% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q1, Lenovo reported revenue of $18.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a non-GAAP net profit of $389 million, also up 21.8%. The net profit margin remained stable at 2.1% [5] - The breakdown of revenue by business segments shows: - IDG: Revenue of $13.46 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2% in PC shipments, significantly outperforming the industry [5] - ISG: Revenue of $4.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with AI server revenue more than doubling [5] - SSG: Revenue of $2.26 billion, up 19.8%, with deferred revenue of $3.5 billion, indicating strong business predictability [5] Business Outlook - The report anticipates continued momentum in PC shipments and AI PC penetration, supported by the ongoing Windows 10 replacement cycle and reduced tariff impacts. The ISG segment is expected to return to profitability as demand for AI servers increases [6] - The SSG segment has gained attention due to rising enterprise AI demand, with its operating profit contribution exceeding 50% [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Lenovo, with expectations of outperforming the market in the next 12-18 months [18]. Core Insights - Lenovo achieved record-breaking performance in 1Q FY26, with total revenue growing 22% year-on-year to US$18.8 billion and non-HKFRS net profit also increasing by 22% to US$389 million, reflecting strong execution amid AI opportunities [6][7]. - All major business segments showed comprehensive growth, with the Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generating US$13.5 billion in revenue (up 18% YoY), the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) posting US$4.3 billion (up 36% YoY), and the Solutions & Services Group (SSG) reaching US$2.3 billion (up 20% YoY) [7][9][10]. - The AI strategy has yielded significant results, with a focus on technological innovation and a strong R&D investment of US$524 million in Q1, representing a 10% increase YoY [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total group revenue reached US$18.8 billion, a historical high, with a 22% YoY increase; non-HKFRS net profit rose to US$389 million [6][7]. - Operating cash flow was US$1.2 billion, the highest in the past 11 quarters, and cash balance increased by 15% YoY to US$4.5 billion [6][7]. Business Segments - IDG revenue was US$13.5 billion, with PC business growing 19% and global market share at 24.6%; AI PCs accounted for over 30% of shipments [7][9]. - ISG revenue surged to US$4.3 billion, with AI server revenue doubling and liquid cooling technology achieving 100% heat dissipation efficiency [7][9]. - SSG recorded a revenue high of US$2.3 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22% and strong demand for hybrid cloud and AI solutions [7][9]. Regional Growth - Revenue in the China market grew 36% YoY, driven by AI PCs and infrastructure businesses; APAC (excluding China) rose 39% [9]. - North America’s PC market share increased for 9 consecutive quarters, while the smartphone premiumization strategy expanded global market share [9]. Operational Efficiency - Lenovo optimized its operational system by balancing in-house production and ODM outsourcing, maintaining China as the core manufacturing hub [10]. - Non-PC businesses accounted for 47% of revenue, with IDG maintaining an industry-leading profit margin of over 8% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The computing power industry is at a pivotal moment with both domestic and international chains resonating, leading to renewed market interest in the domestic computing power supply chain after a period of stagnation [2]. - The report anticipates that the tight balance in domestic computing power will persist, with critical bottlenecks in advanced process capacity, advanced packaging capacity, large model adaptation, and HBM supply gradually being addressed over time [2]. - The second half of the year and into next year is expected to present significant investment opportunities in domestic computing power [2]. Domestic and International Computing Power Supply Chain Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-end PCB, optical modules, and server ODM sectors within the overseas computing power supply chain, which are expected to maintain high demand and profitability [3]. - Supply shortages in upstream materials such as fiberglass cloth and M8 CCL for AI servers are projected to continue, leading to potential price and profit margin increases [3]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies like Shengyi Technology (生益科技, 600183) [3]. CoWoP Solution - NVIDIA is exploring the CoWoP packaging solution as a potential alternative to the current CoWoS packaging, which could enhance the value of PCBs if adopted [4]. - The CoWoP solution requires mSAP processes, which depend on ultra-thin peelable copper foil, currently dominated by Mitsui Mining & Smelting in Japan [4]. - Domestic company Fangbang Technology (方邦股份, 688020) is mentioned as having relevant products, although supply confirmation is pending [4]. Domestic Computing Power Supply Chain - Key domestic computing hardware companies such as Cambricon (寒武纪, 688256) and SMIC (中芯国际, 0981.HK) are recommended for investment [5]. - The report notes that due to geopolitical considerations, ByteDance has paused its ASIC chip design project with Broadcom and is now working with domestic design service providers [5]. - Investment opportunities are also suggested in domestic chip IP leader Xinyuan Technology (芯原股份, 688521) [5]. Traditional Analog Chip Recovery Opportunities - The analog chip sector is benefiting from domestic substitution and local-for-local demand, with wafer fab utilization rates remaining high and terminal prices increasing by 10-20% [8]. - TI has announced price increases for 99.9% of its product lines, with significant portions seeing price hikes of over 30% [8]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies like Huahong Semiconductor (华虹半导体, 1347.HK) and others [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) and other companies involved in storage and mature process chips [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the green computing industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the necessity of developing green computing to address the increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with computing power, which is seen as a critical component of high-quality development in the digital economy [7][21] - It highlights the significant growth in computing power in China, with a total scale reaching 280 EFLOPS by the end of 2024, and an average growth rate of nearly 30% over the past five years [7][9] - The report outlines the integration of green computing into various sectors, including energy, manufacturing, retail, transportation, and construction, with over 86% of central enterprises adopting cloud services [9][21] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Green Computing Research - The report identifies the exponential growth in energy demand for computing infrastructure, driven by advancements in AI technologies and distributed computing [19][20] - It discusses the contradiction between the increasing demand for computing power and the limited environmental capacity, necessitating a transformation towards green computing [21][22] 2. Overall Progress in Green Computing - The report notes a tightening of global policies regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions in the computing sector, with various countries implementing stringent regulations [29][30] - In China, policies are shifting from intensive construction to a collaborative model focusing on efficiency, energy consumption, and application [30][31] 3. Development Trends in Computing Equipment - The report highlights the rapid growth of AI servers as a key driver of energy consumption in computing equipment, with global data center IT loads expected to increase significantly by 2030 [48][49] - It mentions that China's computing equipment efficiency is improving, with advancements in chip manufacturing and cooling technologies [51] 4. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines the green computing industry chain, which includes hardware suppliers, energy providers, infrastructure builders, and application customers [37] - It emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency technologies, such as liquid cooling, which is projected to grow significantly in the coming years [41][42] 5. Corporate Practices - The report details various corporate initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality and enhancing energy efficiency, with major tech companies committing to renewable energy usage [43][45] - It highlights the proactive measures taken by Chinese telecom operators to promote green computing and energy collaboration [45][46]