AI 算力龙头启航，成长确定性凸显 工业富联(601138) 工业富联（601138.SH）首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | 本报告导读： 公司作为全球 AI 算力基础设施核心供应商，凭借精密制造基因与全产业链布局，在 AI 服务器、高速交换机与端侧 AI 领域形成协同，随着全球 AI 资本开支浪潮及 GB200/300 等新平台放量，公司成长动能有望持续强化。 | 股东权益(百万元) | 161,5 ...

2026 年 2 月 13 日，麦格理发布最新研报，对联想集团(0992.HK)维持跑赢大市评级，并将目标价从 12.26 港元上调 5% 至12.93 港元，以当前 9.00 港元股价计算，12 个月潜在总回报率达 44.1%。研报指 出，联想各业务板块业绩超预期，尤其是 ISG(基础设施方案业务集团)重组成效显现，盈利拐点将至， 叠加 AI 服务器业务高速增长、PC 端 AI 升级与替换周期双重驱动，公司正步入可持续盈利的新周期。 联想 26 财年第三财季(12 月)业绩全面大超市场预期，成为本次评级上调的核心支撑。期内公司营收同 比大增 18% 至 222.04 亿美元，超麦格理及 Visible Alpha(VA)一致预期 5%；非香港财务报告准则净利润 同比飙升 36% 至 5.89 亿美元，分别超麦格理 / VA 预期 11%/23%。值得注意的是，尽管录得 2.85 亿美 元 ISG 重组一次性费用，公司仍实现盈利能力稳步提升，高占比的 CSP 收入结构推动运营费用率同比 下降 124 个基点，经营利润同比大增 37%，展现出强劲的成本管控与盈利韧性。 各核心业务板块均交出亮眼答卷，增长动能多点 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a record high revenue for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, achieving $22.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18% [1] - Adjusted net profit surged by 36% to $589 million, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [1] - AI-related revenue became a key growth driver, soaring by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue, showcasing the successful implementation of the AI strategy [1] Business Segment Performance - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated approximately $15.755 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with global PC market share rising to 25.3% [2] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of about $5.176 billion, a substantial increase of 31.42%, with cloud infrastructure revenue reaching new highs and operational losses significantly improving [2] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved revenue of approximately $2.652 billion, up 17.52%, with operating profit margin nearing historical highs at 22.5% [2] Future Outlook - Forecasts for adjusted net profit for fiscal years 2026-2028 are $1.731 billion, $2.023 billion, and $2.268 billion, with respective growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 12% [3] - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and profit growth, with improving financial metrics such as decreasing debt-to-asset ratios and increasing liquidity ratios [3] - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy across AI terminals, infrastructure, and services is anticipated to continue benefiting from the global AI industry development [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by the increasing penetration of AI PCs, strong orders for AI servers, and resilient supply chain management, leading to an upward revision of FY2026 earnings forecasts while maintaining projections for FY2027-2028 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2026Q3, the company reported revenue of $22.204 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026Q3 was $589 million, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $463 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [1] - The company has revised its FY2026-2028 non-GAAP net profit estimates to $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the IDG segment, revenue reached $15.755 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with Lenovo's PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [1] - The AI devices within the IDG segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 71%, accounting for 40% of the segment's revenue [1] - The ISG segment generated revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, driven by the deployment of GB300 NVL72 and a 59% increase in AI infrastructure revenue [1] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the IDG segment was 7.32%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, demonstrating the company's supply chain resilience amid rising component costs [1] - The SSG segment achieved revenue of $2.652 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% to $3.78 billion, enhancing business predictability [2] - The OPM for the SSG segment was 22.48%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong operational resilience [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group, with a target price adjusted to HKD 13.3 based on a FY2027 PE of 11x [11][13]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group is transitioning from a PC giant to a core hub of the AI ecosystem, driven by a closed-loop ecosystem of terminals, computing power, and services, resulting in significant revenue and profit growth [3][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 157.5 billion in FY26Q3, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 36% [11]. - AI-related revenue surged by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, showcasing the effectiveness of Lenovo's mixed AI strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are adjusted to USD 80.5 billion, USD 87.8 billion, and USD 94.8 billion, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits projected at USD 1.74 billion, USD 1.95 billion, and USD 2.11 billion [5][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating profit growth across all three major business segments, with IDG, ISG, and SSG all achieving double-digit growth [11]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.7 in 2024 to 7.1 in 2028, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers [5][15]. Business Segments Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) reported revenue of RMB 110 billion, with a 14% year-on-year growth, maintaining operational profit growth despite rising core component costs [11]. - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) achieved a record revenue of RMB 36.7 billion, with over 31% year-on-year growth, driven by high double-digit growth in AI server revenue [11]. - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) led with a 22.5% operating profit margin, marking the scaling phase of AI services, with non-hardware-bound service revenue reaching 60% [11]. AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy aligns with industry trends, focusing on AI PCs, AI servers, and edge computing, with a dual product system for personal and enterprise AI solutions [11]. - The company has established a closed-loop ecosystem for AI, collaborating with major players like NVIDIA to enhance its market position [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor and AI-related sectors, with strong revenue growth expected in 2026 [1][5]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing robust demand, particularly in AI servers, HPC, and cloud data centers, contributing to a significant revenue increase for TSMC, which reported NT$401.26 billion in January 2026, a year-on-year growth of 36.8% [1][5]. - The report highlights that advanced packaging capacity remains tight, which is a critical factor supporting revenue growth [5]. - Companies like Xinxia and JY Electronics are also seeing substantial revenue increases due to the demand for AI-related applications and advanced testing requirements [1][8]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - TSMC's revenue in January 2026 reached NT$401.26 billion, driven by strong demand for AI servers and HPC, maintaining high utilization rates in advanced processes [1][5]. - Xinxia's revenue reached NT$9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, reflecting the growing importance of server management chips in AI server architectures [7][8]. Advanced Packaging and Testing - JY Electronics reported NT$33.7 billion in revenue, a 41% year-on-year increase, driven by the complexity of next-generation GPU testing and increased demand for AI ASICs [8]. - Chroma ATE's revenue reached NT$38.3 billion, a 72.1% increase, supported by rising power testing demands and advanced packaging capacity expansion [8]. Semiconductor Manufacturing - UMC, VIS, and PSMC reported revenue increases of 5%, 18%, and 26% respectively, with PSMC achieving a 39-month revenue high due to rising memory wafer prices [15]. - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported significant revenue growth of 608%, 94%, and 51% respectively, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances in the memory market [16]. EMS Sector - Foxconn, Wistron, and Quanta reported revenues of NT$730.04 billion, NT$2,283.7 billion, and NT$2,308.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 152%, and 62% [12]. - Wistron's chairman emphasized that AI-related orders in 2026 will significantly exceed those of the previous year, indicating a strong outlook for the EMS sector [12]. Passive Components - YAGEO reported NT$130.3 billion in revenue, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from AI-related applications and pre-holiday stocking in Greater China [19].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported record revenue and profit growth for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, significantly exceeding market expectations and achieving historical highs [1][3]. Group Performance - The total revenue reached 157.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of over 18%, surpassing market consensus [1]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 36% year-on-year, with profit growth rate doubling that of revenue growth [1]. Business Segments - All three major business segments of Lenovo achieved strong double-digit growth: - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated over 110 billion RMB in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, maintaining industry-leading profitability [4]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of 36.7 billion RMB, growing over 31% year-on-year, reaching a historical high and nearing profitability [4]. - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) saw revenue growth of 18% year-on-year, marking the nineteenth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with operating profit margin rising to 22.5% [4]. AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue surged by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, becoming a significant growth driver for the company [3]. - AI PC revenue experienced high double-digit growth, while AI smartphones and services achieved triple-digit growth, indicating a shift towards higher-value business structures [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index dropping by 1.53%, outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.76%. Over the past five trading days, various sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with battery chemicals slightly increasing by 0.09% while semiconductor materials fell by 3.70% [3][17]. - Strong capital expenditure growth is observed in North America, particularly among major cloud service providers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a combined capital expenditure exceeding $670 billion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60%. This investment is expected to drive demand for AI servers and related materials [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The new materials sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index also experiencing negative movements. The new materials index's performance is highlighted as it has outperformed the ChiNext index [3][13]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Price tracking for various materials shows fluctuations, with amino acids like valine at 13,850 RMB/ton (-1.42%) and vitamins such as vitamin A at 60,500 RMB/ton (-1.63%). Prices for biodegradable plastics remain stable, indicating a steady market for these materials [4][12]. 3. Industry News - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure development, which is expected to enhance the demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates and related materials. Companies such as Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology are highlighted for their potential in the resin sector, while Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology are noted for electronic fabrics [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream material development opportunities, particularly in AI-related sectors, as the demand for advanced materials is anticipated to grow significantly due to the increasing need for AI server infrastructure [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of precision manufacturing solutions across the entire supply chain for smart terminals, leveraging its strong technological foundation in various materials to achieve vertical integration from raw material production to final assembly [6][11] - The financial performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, with a projected increase in revenue from 544.91 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,395.99 billion yuan by 2027, and net profit expected to rise from 30.21 billion yuan to 83.81 billion yuan in the same period [4][6] - The company is expanding its business into emerging markets such as smart automotive, humanoid robots, AI/XR glasses, and smart retail, which are expected to drive future growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a solid business foundation and high-quality customer resources, being a strategic partner to many global brands like Apple, Samsung, and Tesla [12][11] - It has a diversified business structure covering multiple sectors including consumer electronics and smart automotive [21][11] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 466.99 billion yuan in 2022 to 698.97 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.34% [29] - The net profit is expected to increase from 24.48 billion yuan to 36.24 billion yuan in the same period, with a CAGR of 21.67% [29] Consumer Electronics - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI upgrade and innovation in the consumer electronics sector, with a focus on high-value products like foldable screens and 3D glass [6][48] - The revenue from the smartphone and computer segments is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased demand and product upgrades [30][34] Smart Automotive - The company is expanding into the automotive electronics sector, with innovative products like ultra-thin laminated glass and smart cockpit components, which are expected to enhance the value per vehicle [6][33] - The automotive segment's revenue is projected to grow significantly as the penetration of electric vehicles increases [6][33] Emerging Fields - The company is strategically positioning itself in emerging markets such as humanoid robots and AI data centers, with a focus on vertical integration and technological innovation [7][6] - Collaborations with leading companies in these fields are expected to foster growth and enhance market presence [7][6]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The ultra-luxury market has significant potential for domestic alternatives, with the Jianghuai brand expected to improve profitability through increased sales of the Zun Jie model [4][5] - The ultra-luxury car market has historically sold between 150,000 to 200,000 units annually, with domestic brands currently holding a low market share, indicating substantial future growth opportunities [4] - Jianghuai's Q3 2025 financial report shows a notable improvement in revenue and gross margin, with expectations for continued growth as the Zun Jie model begins larger-scale deliveries [5][6] Group 2: Paper Industry - The price of white cardboard is set to increase by 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2026, following a previous increase in January, which is expected to positively impact profitability for leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The average price of white cardboard rose by 291.05 RMB per ton from August 2025 to December 2025, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [8] - The company reported a revenue of 14.45 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and a production increase of 12.39% in the same period [9] Group 3: Organic Silicon Industry - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, particularly in sectors such as electronics, construction, and renewable energy, with projected consumption growth rates of 8.0% to 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 [11][12] - The expansion of organic silicon supply is slowing, with new capacity expected to be limited in the coming years, which may help stabilize prices [12] - The "anti-involution" consensus among industry leaders is expected to positively influence pricing and market conditions, aiding in the recovery of the industry's profitability [12][13] Group 4: Food Processing Industry - The company anticipates a core operating profit growth of 44.8% to 51.2% for 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 7.75 to 7.85 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [17][18] - The expansion of store numbers and market penetration in rural areas is driving revenue growth, with a total of 11,566 stores expected by the end of 2025 [19] - The company is focusing on building a membership system and enhancing online sales channels, which are expected to strengthen its market position [19] Group 5: Military Electronics Industry - The company forecasts a net profit of 338 to 388 million RMB for 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by demand for AI and cloud computing technologies [20][22] - The company is actively collaborating with major tech firms and expanding its product offerings in AI and data center infrastructure, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [23][24] - The company plans to invest in expanding its production capacity in key technology areas, including AI and defense applications, to capitalize on market opportunities [24][25] Group 6: AI and Software Development Industry - The company expects a net profit of 785 to 950 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 40% to 70%, driven by advancements in AI models and increased sales [26][27] - The launch of the new AI model "Xunfei Starfire X1.5" is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market, with significant project wins reported [28][30] - The company is expanding its B2B AI applications and has achieved notable sales success in consumer AI hardware, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Group 7: Biopharmaceutical Industry - The ADC drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with global sales expected to reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030, driven by increased R&D efforts from domestic companies [32][34] - Domestic companies are leveraging existing technologies to optimize ADC drugs, with several products showing potential to become best-in-class [33][34] - The increasing number of ADC drug pipelines in China is expected to lead to a significant number of new drug approvals in the coming years, enhancing market competitiveness [35] Group 8: Automotive Components Industry - The domestic electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 28.2% in 2025, with the company focusing on high-voltage power supply solutions for electric vehicles [37][38] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and is expanding its international client base, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][39] - The company anticipates a net profit of 210 to 250 million RMB for 2025, driven by increased demand in the electric vehicle sector and successful capacity expansion [39][41]