本文字数：1733，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |一财评论员 AI再次点燃人们对未来的殷切期许。 最新OpenAI巨额资本支出点亮了硅谷和全球金融市场。这份资本支出，让甲骨文公司的"剩余履约义务 （RPO）"猛增至4550亿美元，令其股价10日飙升约36%，埃里森的财富也一度超过马斯克成为全球首 富。这也同时将博通、谷歌等科技巨头推上增长的风口。 2025.09.12 这意味着现有的经济产业生态链，本身就需基于物理第一性原理去挖掘和跃升自身的能力，这在特斯拉 开创的电动车供应链中得到了初步路演。因此，当前必须明确一点：在新科技变革前沿，甚至需人们有 魄力将过往优势摧毁和重塑，敢于壮士断腕。 其次，重塑和重建叙事结构和逻辑，才是AI时代的核心竞争优势。科创的过程本质上是一个准确陈述 和勾画未来逻辑图腾的过程，这需通过猜想和反驳精确地将需求表达出来，背后是一系列概念内涵外延 的厘定、边际标准的精准把握等。 科创最终需通过自由浇灌，需制度性包容，需不同的创见声音在市场汇聚出磅礴的交响乐。这就要求围 绕个体的创见这一内核，搭建一个自由陈述和表达的环境，尊重每个人对创见的自由表达权，尊重每个 人合法利用市场的权利，有效降 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the recent massive capital expenditure by OpenAI has ignited enthusiasm for AI-driven growth, significantly impacting companies like Oracle, which saw its remaining performance obligations (RPO) surge to $455 billion, leading to a 36% stock price increase [1] - The AI-driven growth is described as a "arms race," with various tech giants like Broadcom and Google positioned to benefit from this trend [1] - Tesla is highlighted as transforming from an electric vehicle company to an AI-driven innovation company, with significant developments in robotics and autonomous driving technology [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the perception of a bubble in the AI sector, suggesting that market enthusiasm, while potentially bubble-like, serves as a ticket to the unknown, allowing for trial and error among participants [2] - It is noted that the journey towards AI is not merely a continuation of existing economic structures but requires new designs and tools to meet emerging demands [3] - The need for a clear understanding of AI as a technological leap rather than a continuous function is emphasized, indicating that existing economic ecosystems must evolve based on fundamental principles [3] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of creating an environment that fosters individual creativity and innovation, advocating for reduced market entry barriers and fair competition [4] - It highlights that AI competition transcends geographical boundaries, necessitating a reevaluation of regulatory frameworks to manage the complexities introduced by AI and Web 3.0 [4][5] - The core competitive focus in the AI arms race is on the clear definition and description of demand, which requires a supportive institutional framework for entrepreneurial freedom [5] Group 4 - The competition in the AI arms race is characterized as not just a battle for computational power and data but also a cognitive transformation that requires a respectful and responsive competitive order for entrepreneurs [6]

AI"军备竞赛"不仅仅是算力芯片、能源供给等器物之争，更是一场认知变革。 AI再次点燃人们对未来的殷切期许。 最新OpenAI巨额资本支出点亮了硅谷和全球金融市场。这份资本支出，让甲骨文公司的"剩余履约义务 （RPO）"猛增至4550亿美元，令其股价10日飙升约36%，埃里森的财富也一度超过马斯克成为全球首 富。这也同时将博通、谷歌等科技巨头推上增长的风口。 首先，必须在认知上明晰，AI不是一个连续函数，而是一场科技跃迁，本身就伴随着巨烈颠簸的经济 生态重构，因为AI不是简单的对已知经济生态的重新匹配，而是一种猜想和反驳的商业化运营，先有 创新者和冒险者对需求的精确描述，才有满足需求的匹配和创见等行动，因此通往AI之旅，并不都能 从现有全球经济和产业生态链中找到答案，而更多需创见新的设计和工具，以满足由猜想和反驳孕育而 来的需求。 这意味着现有的经济产业生态链，本身就需基于物理第一性原理去挖掘和跃升自身的能力，这在特斯拉 开创的电动车供应链中得到了初步路演。因此，当前必须明确一点：在新科技变革前沿，甚至需人们有 魄力将过往优势摧毁和重塑，敢于壮士断腕。 其次，重塑和重建叙事结构和逻辑，才是AI时代的核心竞争优 ...

RT Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane)Summary of @elonmusk’s 44 minute interview at the @allinsummit:Government:• Elon hasn’t been back to DC since May, “The Government is basically unfixable.”• “If AI & Robots don’t solve the National Debt, we’re toast.”Optimus:• Tesla is finalizing the design of Optimus Gen 3. “It’s going to be a very remarkable robot.”• Optimus Gen 3 will have the manual dexterity of a human.• Optimus Gen 3 will have an AI mind that can navigate, and comprehend reality.• There is no supply ...

Tesla Inc. TSLA CEO Elon Musk has shared updates on autonomous driving, Optimus humanoid robots and artificial intelligence pursuits during a recent event.Optimus Could Be ‘The Biggest Product Ever'Speaking at the All In Summit on Tuesday, Musk shared a comprehensive list of updates on all of his ventures.On the Optimus robot, Musk shared that Tesla was finalizing the design of the Optimus version 3 robot, which would boast the "manual dexterity of a human," indicating a complex hand design as well as an "A ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla aims to transition from being solely an automaker to an AI company, focusing on achieving full self-driving capabilities through advanced computing power and data processing [1][2]. Development of Dojo - Dojo was introduced as a custom-built supercomputer designed to train Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) neural networks, which at the time required human oversight despite some automated capabilities [2][3]. - The timeline of Dojo's development includes its first mention in 2019, with Musk highlighting its potential to process vast amounts of video data for training AI [4][5][8]. - By 2021, Tesla officially announced Dojo, introducing its D1 chip and outlining plans for a supercomputer capable of significant AI training [9][10]. Progress and Challenges - Throughout 2022 and 2023, Tesla reported progress on Dojo, including the installation of its first cabinet and plans for a full Exapod cluster by early 2023 [10][12]. - Musk indicated that Dojo could significantly reduce training costs and potentially become a sellable service, similar to Amazon Web Services [11][12]. - However, by mid-2023, Tesla faced challenges with Nvidia hardware supply, prompting a renewed focus on Dojo to ensure adequate training capabilities [16]. Transition to Cortex - In 2024, Tesla began transitioning from Dojo to a new supercomputer called Cortex, which utilizes Nvidia GPUs and aims to enhance AI training for FSD [18][19]. - The Cortex supercomputer was reported to consist of approximately 50,000 H100 Nvidia GPUs, facilitating improvements in FSD performance [19][20]. - By early 2025, the Dojo project was officially shut down, with Tesla consolidating its resources towards the development of the AI6 chip, which is intended to serve multiple AI applications [22][23]. Future Directions - Tesla's future plans include scaling AI capabilities with the AI6 chip, which is designed for both inference and training, indicating a strategic shift in its AI development approach [22][23]. - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge in AI by focusing on integrated chip designs rather than dividing resources across different projects [23].

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced a shift in Tesla's AI strategy, moving away from the Dojo supercomputer to focus on new chip projects AI5 and AI6, which are deemed more versatile and economically viable [5][6] - The Dojo platform was initially intended to create a competitive edge by vertically integrating AI architecture, but Musk now considers it an "evolutionary dead end" [4][5] - Tesla's reliance on external GPU providers like Nvidia will continue as the company develops its new AI services, indicating a strategic pivot rather than complete independence from established suppliers [6][7] Group 2 - This decision is seen as a significant win for Nvidia, reinforcing its dominance in the AI sector and suggesting that even ambitious companies like Tesla cannot outpace established industry leaders [7] - Tesla's pivot may open up new opportunities for Nvidia's automotive business, which is emerging as a growth engine alongside its core data center segment [8][9] - The trend of automakers relying on external hardware and software systems is likely to accelerate demand for Nvidia's automotive products, enhancing its position in the AI infrastructure ecosystem [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Add" rating for Tesla [5]. Core Views - Tesla is transitioning from an automotive manufacturer to an AI company, with significant investments in AI infrastructure, which is expected to reshape the automotive and transportation industries [7][8]. - The report highlights that Tesla's financial performance is under pressure due to declining automotive sales, but the company is leveraging its existing automotive business and energy storage to support its AI transformation [8][9]. - The new valuation logic for Tesla is based on breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology leading to new business models and cash flows, which will enhance its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The significance of studying Tesla from both fundamental and investment perspectives is emphasized, noting its role in leading the electrification and intelligent transformation of the automotive industry [14][17]. 2. Transformation - Tesla is making a significant shift towards AI, with nearly 30% of its new capital expenditures (CapEx) directed towards AI infrastructure, while automotive production has not seen new capacity investments for eight consecutive quarters [8][40]. - The report discusses the divergence between Tesla's stock price and automotive delivery volumes since Q2 2024, indicating a shift in market perception away from viewing Tesla solely as a car manufacturer [8][54]. 3. Autonomous Driving/FSD/Robotaxi - The report outlines a new valuation logic for Tesla's autonomous driving business, suggesting that successful technology breakthroughs will lead to new business models and cash flows, ultimately enhancing the company's valuation [8][9]. 4. Automotive Sales & Energy Storage - Tesla's automotive and energy storage businesses are identified as cash cows that support its transformation into an AI company, with a focus on maximizing the potential of existing production lines [8][9]. 5. Robotics/Optimus Business - The report notes that Tesla's robotics business is still in its early stages and not fully valued by the market, but it is expected to contribute to long-term growth [8][9]. 6. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Tesla indicate expected revenues of $99.02 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $5.57 billion, reflecting a significant growth trajectory despite current challenges [5][8].

AI Strategy - Tesla is shifting its focus to AI5 chips manufactured by TSMC and AI6 chips manufactured by Samsung, consolidating resources for AI development [1] - AI5 chip production by TSMC is expected to begin in late 2026, with performance 3 to 5 times higher than HW4 [1] - Tesla is integrating Dojo architecture into the AI6 chip for vehicles and Optimus robots, aiming for a unified AI ecosystem [1] Robotaxi and Operations - Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi testing and validation in six cities in Texas, strategically building an ecosystem centered around Austin [1] - Model Y Long Range RWD lease prices in the US have increased from $349/month to $399/month with a $3,000 down payment for a 36-month lease at 10,000 miles per year [1] - Giga Berlin is now delivering Model Y vehicles to Canada due to tariffs, necessitating a reassessment of cost and benefit strategies [1] Service and Support - Tesla is piloting a new service model by providing customers with direct contact information for local service leaders to address concerns and disputes [1] - Tesla plans to expand this solution to all service locations, aiming to improve customer service and communication [1] Semi and Infrastructure - FritoLay is constructing a charging station in Rosenberg, Texas, specifically for Tesla Semi trucks, featuring 8 V4 charging piles each with a maximum power of 12 MW [2] - The charging station includes a 960 kW solar array and two Tesla Megapack XL energy storage units to reduce reliance on the grid [2] Cybertruck - The US Air Force is purchasing a Cybertruck to use it as a target for missile testing, recognizing its durable stainless steel exoskeleton as a potential military threat [2] Tesla Restaurant - Tesla's Hollywood restaurant has reduced its menu to five sandwiches due to high demand and the need to improve efficiency [2]

AI Strategy - Tesla will focus all efforts on the Tesla AI5, AI6, and subsequent chips, which will be excellent for inference and pretty good for training [1] - It doesn't make sense for Tesla to divide its resources and scale two quite different AI chip designs [1] Resource Allocation - Tesla is winding down the Dojo super computer efforts [1]