Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of $520.00, representing a 23% upside from the current price of $421.90 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tesla is accelerating the expansion of its Robotaxi fleet and moving towards large-scale AI and autonomous driving solutions. The Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, is set to begin production in April 2026, which is expected to significantly optimize cost per mile and increase utilization [5][29]. - By the end of 2026, Tesla aims to have its Robotaxi service operational in 25-50% of the U.S. market, with over 500 vehicles already deployed in the Bay Area and Austin [5][29]. - The company is transitioning to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) service, which currently has nearly 1.1 million paid users, representing a 12% penetration rate among existing vehicles [5][35]. - Tesla plans to invest $2 billion in xAI to enhance its AI capabilities, which will integrate with its vehicle ecosystem [5][31]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Tesla's total revenue is projected to be $97.69 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.95% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching $176.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at $7.96 billion, with a projected increase to $17.92 billion by 2028 [4][36]. - The report indicates that Tesla's automotive gross margin is expected to recover to 17.9% in the fourth quarter, with a focus on improving production efficiency and cost management [10][12]. Production and Capacity - Tesla plans to cease production of the Model S and Model X in early 2026 to repurpose the production lines for the Cybertruck, with a long-term production target of 1 million units annually [5][26]. - The Cybercab is expected to become the highest volume model in the long term, although initial production ramp-up may be slow due to the use of new customized components [5][29]. - Tesla's global production capacity is projected to exceed 2.35 million units, with significant expansions planned in Texas and Nevada [5][26]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, estimating Tesla's revenue for 2026 to 2028 at $114 billion, $141 billion, and $176 billion, respectively. The calculated fair stock price of $520.00 corresponds to a 166x multiple of projected Non-GAAP earnings per share for 2026 [5][33].

特斯拉正迈入一个有趣的「过渡期」里。 一方面，它们的汽车业务连续两年下跌：刚刚过去的 2025 年，特斯拉整体交付量减少 15.3 万辆，汽车营收同比缩水 10%。全球纯电汽车的销冠位置正式 被比亚迪取代，未来可能还会进一步拉大差距。 但另一方面，马斯克本人似乎对这种下跌并不担忧。在谈到 2026 年规划时，他不仅忽略了几乎所有和卖车有关的话题，反而宣布了一笔高达 200 亿美元 的资本支出规划。这笔支出，将用在包括人形机器人 Optimus、无人车 Cybercab 等在内的六条全新生产线，以及和模型训练有关的算力建设上。 特斯拉目前的产能规划 | 图源：业绩报告 彭博社估算，在汽车业务增长停滞的情况下，预计 2026 年特斯拉的账上将减少 60 亿美元。 多年以来，外界对马斯克宣传的「特斯拉是一家 AI 公司」褒贬不一。争议很大程度在于他关于自动驾驶、机器人的各种承诺不断跳票，市场始终没有看 到相对完整清晰的商业模式。这一次，在这 200 亿美元的资本计划里，马斯克显然透露了更多关于如何实现梦想的「路径」和「线索」。 当全球车企的主流叙事已经收敛到关于决赛圈争夺的时候，擅长反共识的特斯拉，已经悄然进入了一 ...

图源：Pixabay 马斯克提到，AI4 (HW 4.0) 已被特斯拉的数据中心用于 AI 训练工作负载，AI5 与 AI6 两代芯片间的间 隔将不到 1 年。 【来源：IT之家】 1 月 29 日消息，埃隆 · 马斯克在特斯拉 2025Q4 财报电话会议上表示，芯片产能很可能会成为限制特斯 拉未来中期（3~4 年）增长的瓶颈，其从台积电、三星电子、美光等芯片供应商处获得的数据显示外部 产能不足以满足需求。 这意味着特斯拉很有必要建设一座自有的 TerraFab 超大型晶圆厂。这座设想中的晶圆厂将整合逻辑制 程、存储半导体、先进封装等多个相对独立的环节，实现先进芯片制造全流程集成，有利于特斯拉抵御 各类外界风险。 ...

Summary of Tesla Inc 4Q25 Preview Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,478,276 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: $425.00 - **Current Price (as of Jan 20, 2026)**: $419.25 - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 Key Financial Metrics - **Deliveries**: Estimated at 1.6 million units in 2026, which is 9% below consensus and represents a -2.5% year-over-year decline. Breakdown includes: - North America: -13% Y/Y - Europe: -5% Y/Y - China: +0.5% Y/Y - Rest of World: +19% Y/Y [6][8] - **Auto Gross Margin (ex-ZEV credit)**: - 4Q25: 14.2% (vs. consensus of 14.8%) - 2026: 14.2% (vs. consensus of 15.0%) [6][8] - **Energy Volume Growth**: Expected to grow by 37% Y/Y to 64 GWh in 2026, with energy gross margins declining by 50 bps Y/Y to 30% [6][8]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Estimated to burn $1.5 billion in 2026, contrasting with consensus expectations of a positive $3.1 billion. This is attributed to a significant increase in capital expenditures [6][8]. - **FSD (Full Self-Driving)**: Anticipated global attach rate to increase to 17.5% by year-end 2026, up from approximately 12% currently. Key drivers include approvals in Europe and China, and the launch of Unsupervised FSD [6][8]. Strategic Updates 1. **Robotaxi Rollout**: - Expecting 1,000 vehicles in the fleet by year-end 2026. - Critical updates on the public launch in Texas and safety improvements from the robotaxi fleet in Austin are anticipated [6][8]. 2. **Unsupervised FSD**: - Significant increase in FSD miles driven from ~90 million in 2022 to ~7.4 billion by 2025. - The rollout of a more enhanced "eyes off" experience is expected throughout 2026 [6][8]. 3. **AI5 Chip Design**: Updates on Tesla's AI5 chip design and future compute efforts are expected [9]. 4. **Optimus Gen 3**: Initial unveil planned for February/March 2026, which is becoming increasingly important for Tesla's valuation [9]. 5. **Convergence of Ventures**: Updates on how Elon Musk's other ventures may synergize with Tesla's operations are anticipated [9]. Risk Factors - **Market Competition**: Increased competition from traditional OEMs, startups, and large tech firms in both the automotive and robotics sectors [30]. - **Execution Risks**: Risks associated with the rollout of robotaxi, FSD, and humanoid robots [30]. - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential regulatory challenges, particularly in China [30]. Conclusion Tesla Inc is navigating a complex landscape with significant challenges in delivery growth and margin pressures, while also pursuing ambitious technological advancements in AI and autonomous driving. The upcoming earnings call is expected to provide critical updates that could influence stock performance and investor sentiment.

Core Insights - Tesla is shifting its focus towards AI chips, moving from hardware support to a core element that determines product capability limits [1][12] - Elon Musk revealed Tesla's latest AI chip roadmap, with AI5 design nearing completion and AI6 in early stages, aiming to compress chip design cycles to 9 months per generation [1][12] Group 1: AI Chip Development - The goals for Tesla's vehicle chips from HW3/AI3 and HW4/AI4 to the upcoming AI5 focus on providing higher computing power and larger memory for Full Self-Driving (FSD) and allowing redundancy for future complex end-to-end models [3][13] - The AI4 era features a 7nm process with approximately 216 TOPS supporting current FSD V12, which is insufficient for long-term goals of full autonomy and embodied intelligence [3][13] - AI5 is expected to utilize both Samsung's 2nm and TSMC's 3nm processes, with Musk claiming a "50 times performance improvement," combining a 10 times increase in raw computing power and a 9 times increase in memory capacity compared to AI4 [3][13] Group 2: Application and Integration - AI5 targets two core businesses: FSD and the Optimus humanoid robot, with a unified algorithm and hardware platform for both vehicles and robots, creating a unique advantage in embodied intelligence [4][14] - The architecture allows Tesla to view smart cars as "mobile robots" and robots as "walking cars," facilitating collaborative evolution at the foundational level [4][14] - Following AI5, AI6 will expand to support both edge inference and cloud training, with HW series chips deployed in vehicles and Dojo series chips for data center training, indicating a dual technical pathway [4][14] Group 3: Dojo Project and Space Computing - The initial goal of the Dojo project was to provide customized, efficient computing infrastructure for Tesla's autonomous driving training, with the first D1 chip based on a 7nm process [5][15] - AI6 and AI7 are envisioned as versatile AI computing chips that can support both edge inference and data center training, even adapting to space environments [5][15] - Space computing is a significant application for AI7, leveraging collaboration with SpaceX to deploy high-performance computing systems in orbit, taking advantage of potential benefits in latency, coverage, and infrastructure costs [6][16] Group 4: Engineering Solutions and Future Goals - Space computing presents challenges such as radiation, heat dissipation, and energy consumption, requiring higher reliability and power control for chips [7][17] - Musk mentioned AI8 and AI9, with an ambitious goal of shortening chip design cycles to 9 months per generation, aiming to align hardware upgrades with the rapid evolution of AI algorithms [7][17] - Tesla proposes an engineering solution to extend the usable life of older AI3 chips by processing 16-bit data with 8-bit low precision chips, balancing user scale and long-term product lifecycle [7][17] Summary - Tesla's AI chip roadmap indicates aggressive growth in computing power, with a 50 times performance increase from AI4 to AI5, significantly outpacing industry averages [11][21] - The application scope is expanding from vehicle inference to robots, data centers, and space computing, with a significantly compressed iteration cycle to match the rapid evolution of AI models [11][21]

Market News - On January 19, the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.88%, Dow futures dropped by 0.80%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 1.11% [1] - The ICE Dollar Index declined by 0.33%, closing at 99.065 points [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.77%, ending at $4,676.70 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.280 per ounce [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 6.9640, appreciating by 80 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.34%, France's CAC40 down 1.78%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.39% [1] Industry Insights - York Space Systems plans to raise $512 million through an IPO by issuing 16 million shares, with a price range of $30 to $34 per share [2] - The satellite internet sector is projected to grow to between 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 10% to 28% [2] - The launch of 19 low-orbit satellites by China's Long March 12 rocket marks a significant step in the development of satellite internet infrastructure [3] - The Dojo 3 project by Tesla aims to enhance AI capabilities for autonomous driving, with the AI5 design expected to support more complex algorithms [5][6]

Market News - On January 19, the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.88%, Dow futures dropped by 0.80%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 1.11% [1] - The ICE Dollar Index declined by 0.33%, closing at 99.065 points [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.77%, ending at $4,676.70 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.280 per ounce [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 6.9640, appreciating by 80 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.34%, France's CAC40 down 1.78%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.39% [1] Industry Insights - York Space Systems announced its IPO terms, planning to raise $512 million by issuing 16 million shares priced between $30 and $34 each [2] - The satellite internet sector is projected to grow significantly, with the satellite communication industry expected to reach a scale of 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 10% to 28% [2] - The successful launch of 19 low-orbit satellites by China's Long March 12 rocket marks a significant step in the development of satellite internet infrastructure [3] - The Dojo 3 project by Tesla aims to enhance its AI capabilities for autonomous driving, with the AI5 design expected to support more complex algorithms [5][6]

Group 1 - The design of Tesla's AI5 chip is nearing completion, with AI6 entering early development, aiming for a 9-month design cycle for future chips AI7, AI8, and AI9 [1][4] - AI6 will be utilized for the Optimus robot and data centers, while AI7/Dojo3 will focus on space-based AI computing [2][3] - The performance of AI4 is already deemed sufficient for unsupervised driving, indicating that better hardware is not necessarily required at this stage [3] Group 2 - Elon Musk emphasized the critical importance of resolving issues with AI5, dedicating significant personal time and resources to its development [4]

1月20日，据《韩国经济新闻》，三星电子将于今年3月在美国泰勒一号工厂启动EUV光刻机测试，随 后逐步导入蚀刻、沉积等设备，计划下半年正式投产。三星已向德州政府申请工厂临时使用许可，可在 满足消防与安全条件下在竣工之前先行运作，并派遣大量"王牌级"工程师驻场，以稳定良率。产能方面 已有明确去向。 去年7月，三星拿下特斯拉165亿美元AI5、AI6芯片订单，马斯克曾称该金额只是下限，实际产量有望 比此数字高出数倍。高通执行长安蒙亦透露，正考虑将下一代AP芯片交由三星生产。若客户持续加 码，三星可能提前启用尚在基础施工的泰勒二号厂。 责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Core Viewpoint - The debate between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Senator Bernie Sanders centers around the implications of AI data centers, with Sanders advocating for a moratorium due to concerns over job loss and environmental impact, while Musk promotes the potential of space-based AI solutions. Group 1: Sanders' Position - Senator Bernie Sanders has called for a moratorium on new AI data centers, arguing that the industry is driven by billionaires seeking more wealth and power rather than the interests of working families [2] - Sanders warns that AI data centers could lead to higher electricity bills and emissions comparable to driving over 300 billion miles, emphasizing the need for a pause in construction [3] - He frames the discussion as one of economic justice, asserting that AI and robotics should benefit all people, not just the wealthy [5] Group 2: Musk's Response and Vision - Elon Musk criticized Sanders, suggesting that those who oppose innovation lack adventure and are cowardly, indicating a belief in the necessity of progress [4] - Musk highlighted SpaceX's plans to use satellites as orbiting data centers, which he claims could become the cheapest way to produce AI data streams within three years [6] - He argues that space-based systems could be the fastest way to scale AI, citing limitations in reliable and affordable electricity sources on Earth [7] Group 3: Industry Implications - Experts estimate that data centers currently consume about 5% of the electricity generated in the U.S., with this share expected to increase as AI usage expands [5] - Tesla is advancing its AI chip development, with plans to manufacture more AI chips than the rest of the industry combined, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI hardware market [8]