来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属集体下挫，且跌幅均在1%以上。沪镍以高达6.14%的跌幅领跌，沪铜、沪 铝以及沪铅一同跌超2%，沪铜跌2.76%，沪铝跌2.89%，沪铅跌2.01%。沪锌跌1.36%，沪锡跌1.83%。 氧化铝主连跌1.58%，铸造铝主连跌2.19%。 贵金属方面，截至15:02分，COMEX黄金跌0.48%，COMEX白银跌2.27%。国内方面，沪金跌0.73%， 沪银跌5.9%。 此外，铂主连跌6.72%，钯主连跌3.57%。 截至今日15:02分行情 | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | * @ | 最新 | 苏尼号% | 涨跌 | 总量 | THUSE | 买入价 | 英出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | ecm | 欧线集运 时 | 4 | 1706.0 | -8.98 | -168.3 | 2.72万 | 12 | 1705.7 | 1706.0 | | 8 | CLOOY | | | 56.25 | | | 1.36万 | | 56.25 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Eleven - Holiday Overseas Market Price Change Statistics" [2] Core View - The report presents the price changes of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators in the overseas market during the eleven - day holiday from September 30th to October 7th, 2025. It includes opening prices, daily price changes, and cumulative price changes during the holiday period [3] Summary by Category Commodities - NYMEX crude oil opened at $62.43 on September 30th, with a cumulative price change of -0.62% to $62.04 on October 7th [3] - NYMEX natural gas opened at $3.33, and the price on October 7th was $3.52, with a cumulative price change of 6.49% [3] - COMEX gold opened at $3887.60, and the price on October 7th was $4007.90, with a cumulative price change of 3.09% [3] - CONEX silver opened at $46.84, and the price on October 7th was $47.66, with a cumulative price change of 1.74% [3] - LNE copper opened at $10296.00, and the price on October 7th was $10725.50, with a cumulative price change of 4.17% [3] - LUE zinc opened at $2956.50, and the price on October 7th was $3041.50, with a cumulative price change of 2.88% [3] - LNE nickel opened at $15265.00, and the price on October 7th was $15480.00, with a cumulative price change of 1.41% [3] - LAE lead opened at $2687.00, and the price on October 7th was $2742.00, with a cumulative price change of 2.05% [3] - LAE tin opened at $35400.00, and the price on October 7th was $36370.00, with a cumulative price change of 2.74% [3] - LNE aluminum opened at $1986.00, and the price on October 7th was $2006.00, with a cumulative price change of 1.01% [3] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) opened at $103.85, and the price on October 7th was $104.10, with a cumulative price change of 0.24% [3] - CBOT soybeans opened at $1000.75, and the price on October 7th was $1020.25, with a cumulative price change of 1.95% [3] - CBOT corn opened at $416.00, and the price on October 7th was $420.25, with a cumulative price change of 1.02% [3] - CBOT soybean oil opened at $49.44, and the price on October 7th was $50.46, with a cumulative price change of 2.06% [3] - CBOT soybean meal opened at $273.20, and the price on October 7th was $277.90, with a cumulative price change of 1.72% [3] - CBOT wheat opened at $507.50, and the price on October 7th was $508.25, with a cumulative price change of 0.15% [3] - CBOT rice opened at $11.17, and the price on October 7th was $10.85, with a cumulative price change of -2.86% [3] - ICE 11 - number sugar opened at $16.60, and the price on October 7th was $16.64, with a cumulative price change of 0.24% [3] - ICE 2 - number cotton opened at $65.72, and the price on October 7th was $64.44, with a cumulative price change of -1.95% [3] Stock Market - The S&P 500 opened at 6688.46, and the index on October 7th was 6714.59, with a cumulative price change of 0.39% [3] - The Nasdaq Index opened at 22660.01, and the index on October 7th was 22788.36, with a cumulative price change of 0.57% [3] - The UK FTSE 100 opened at 9350.43, and the index on October 7th was 9483.58, with a cumulative price change of 1.42% [3] - The French CAC 40 opened at 7895.94, and the index on October 7th was 7974.85, with a cumulative price change of 1.00% [3] - The German DAX opened at 23880.72, and the index on October 7th was 24385.78, with a cumulative price change of 2.11% [3] - The Nikkei 225 opened at 44932.63, and the index on October 7th was 47950.88, with a cumulative price change of 6.72% [3] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 26855.56, and the index on October 7th was 26957.77, with a cumulative price change of 0.38% [3] Other Important Indicators - The US Dollar Index opened at 97.82, and the index on October 7th was 98.59, with a cumulative price change of 0.78% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has raised market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovish stance of Powell at the global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor have pushed up these expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recent demand - side policies in first - tier cities may increase trading volume, but the sustainability needs to be observed. After the important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. Political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovishness of Powell at the August global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor on August 25 have further pushed up these expectations. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level, and real wage growth is flat. Service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. The "anti - involution" has led to better mid - stream profits in July. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size has narrowed to - 1.7%. First - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, but the overall policy strength is relatively weak, with more relaxation for new houses in suburban areas of core cities [7]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support non - dollar assets [7]. 2. View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: V - shaped rebound and high - level oscillation. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Hold bull spreads following the market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The yield curve steepens. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [8]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be considered. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production is decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and supply is tightening. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and there is no inventory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and attention is paid to cost adjustments. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply pressure is accumulating, and the futures market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is still increasing, and peak - season demand needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply fluctuates slightly, and the expectation of oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to soda ash inventory [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The decline in black - series prices has led to a decline in zinc prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The continuous increase in nickel - iron prices has led to a correction in the stainless - steel futures market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously changing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread is stabilizing, and attention is paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Shandong spot prices have declined, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have met with an increase in warehouse receipts, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil prices and oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is accumulating, and olefin prices are falling. Methanol prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand are mainly loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and the release of exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the actual implementation of exports [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low - inventory fundamentals are competing with macro sentiment, and the downward support is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - **PX**: The market atmosphere has cooled, and there is insufficient upward support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand situation still supports prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and unexpected device load reduction [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and there is a possibility of further reduction. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected increases in bottle - chip enterprise production and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and PP prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The fundamental support is limited, and plastic prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing, and PVC prices are running weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and caustic soda prices are oscillating temporarily. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: There may still be a need for short - term adjustment, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The release of state reserves has pushed down soybean meal prices, and point - price trading is expected to keep prices oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, and sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pig**: The supply is expected to be abundant, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall trend is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has rebounded to the previous high and is following the trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: There is a differentiation between near - and far - term contracts, and the main pulp contract is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced positions, and cotton prices have declined within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The driving force is downward, but the short - term downward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to imports [10]. - **Log**: The delivery pressure is still large, and log prices are weakly adjusting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that speculators reduced their net long positions in NYMEX crude oil by 52,000 contracts, bringing the total to 96,106 contracts, marking a 14-week low [1]

Core Insights - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a decrease in speculative net long positions in NYMEX crude oil by 11,697 contracts, bringing the total to 164,559 contracts as of the week ending June 24 [1] Group 1 - Speculative investors reduced their net long positions in NYMEX crude oil [1] - The total net long positions now stand at 164,559 contracts [1] - The reduction in positions indicates a shift in market sentiment among speculators [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 657 contracts to 129,851 contracts [1] - Net long positions in silver reached a 12-week high, while copper hit a 10-week high and platinum rose to a 16-week high [1] - Palladium's net long positions fell to a seven-month low [1] Group 2: Energy Market - NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil net long positions increased to 19-week and 10-week highs, respectively, at 179,134 contracts and 329,383 contracts [1] - NYMEX gasoline's net long positions dropped to a seven-week low, while NYMEX heating oil/diesel reached a 15-week high [1] - Despite a reduction in NYMEX natural gas net long positions to 321,804 contracts, the absolute value of long positions hit a three-month high, and the absolute value of short positions reached a seven-month peak [1] Group 3: Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets - The net long position in Japanese yen stood at 144,595 contracts, indicating continued investor interest in safe-haven assets [1] - Speculators increased net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures across short to long-term maturities, particularly in 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury futures, while net short positions in ultra-long Treasury futures decreased [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Agricultural Products - The net short position in S&P 500 index futures significantly increased, while stock fund managers raised their net long positions in the same index, reflecting differing market outlooks [2] - In the agricultural sector, net short positions in coffee, wheat, and corn decreased, while net short positions in cotton and sugar expanded [2]