1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：6月3日当周，投机者所持NYMEX原油净多头头寸减少52,000手合 约，至96,106手合约，创14周新低。 ...

Core Insights - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a decrease in speculative net long positions in NYMEX crude oil by 11,697 contracts, bringing the total to 164,559 contracts as of the week ending June 24 [1] Group 1 - Speculative investors reduced their net long positions in NYMEX crude oil [1] - The total net long positions now stand at 164,559 contracts [1] - The reduction in positions indicates a shift in market sentiment among speculators [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 657 contracts to 129,851 contracts [1] - Net long positions in silver reached a 12-week high, while copper hit a 10-week high and platinum rose to a 16-week high [1] - Palladium's net long positions fell to a seven-month low [1] Group 2: Energy Market - NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil net long positions increased to 19-week and 10-week highs, respectively, at 179,134 contracts and 329,383 contracts [1] - NYMEX gasoline's net long positions dropped to a seven-week low, while NYMEX heating oil/diesel reached a 15-week high [1] - Despite a reduction in NYMEX natural gas net long positions to 321,804 contracts, the absolute value of long positions hit a three-month high, and the absolute value of short positions reached a seven-month peak [1] Group 3: Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets - The net long position in Japanese yen stood at 144,595 contracts, indicating continued investor interest in safe-haven assets [1] - Speculators increased net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures across short to long-term maturities, particularly in 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury futures, while net short positions in ultra-long Treasury futures decreased [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Agricultural Products - The net short position in S&P 500 index futures significantly increased, while stock fund managers raised their net long positions in the same index, reflecting differing market outlooks [2] - In the agricultural sector, net short positions in coffee, wheat, and corn decreased, while net short positions in cotton and sugar expanded [2]

Core Viewpoint - Speculators increased their net long positions in NYMEX crude oil by 16,056 contracts, reaching a total of 179,134 contracts, marking a 19-week high [1] Group 1 - The data is sourced from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [1] - The reporting period for the data is the week ending June 10 [1]

Global Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced significant declines over the past week, with all 19 major indices falling, particularly the Italian FTSE MIB and Nasdaq, which dropped over 10% [3] - The S&P 500, Nikkei 225, German DAX, and French CAC40 also saw declines exceeding 5%, while China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index was the most resilient, only slightly down by 0.28% [3] Technology Sector Impact - Major technology companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook, faced substantial losses, each dropping over 10% in the past week, with Apple hitting a nearly one-year low and others reaching six-month lows [6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experienced volatility, particularly in metals and energy, with COMEX silver and copper plunging over 14%. NYMEX crude oil and ICE Brent oil fell by 10.15% and 9.21%, respectively, while gold remained relatively stable with a decline of less than 2% [9] Tariff Policy Analysis - Analysts suggest that the "reciprocal tariffs" may signal the beginning of a new wave of market turmoil rather than a resolution, emphasizing that the focus should be on negotiation rather than the direct economic impact of tariffs [11] - China's position in the tariff negotiations is strengthening due to its industrial upgrades and international expansion, allowing it to focus on its economic development without being overly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [11] Economic Outlook and Ratings Adjustments - UBS Global Wealth Management downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "attractive" to "neutral," significantly lowering the S&P 500 year-end target from 6400 to 5800 points due to profit forecast and valuation risks [12] - Other investment banks, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, warned that continued implementation of tariffs could increase the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy this year [12]

Trade Policy Changes - President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, effective April 5, 2025[1] - Higher "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., effective April 9, 2025[1] - A 25% tariff on imported cars took effect on April 3, 2025[1] Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment increased by 155,000 in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 84,000[1] - Manufacturing jobs rose by 21,000, marking the largest increase since October 2022[1] - Despite policy uncertainties and low consumer confidence, the U.S. job market remains robust[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly rising; PVC increased by 1.22%[1] - Black metals mostly declined, with aluminum oxide down by 1.61% and zinc down by 0.71%[1] - Agricultural products generally rose, with vegetable oil up by 1.78%[1] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.73, down 0.58%[4] - COMEX gold rose by 1.33% to $3190.30, with a year-on-year increase of 34.24%[4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.67% to 5670.97, with a year-on-year growth of 12.92%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 1.36% to 1.79%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased by 0.03% to 4.20%[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate spread stands at -2.41, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%[4]