证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

Core Insights - SK Hynix reported record-breaking financial results for the fiscal year 2025, with revenue exceeding 97.1467 trillion KRW (approximately 467.47 billion RMB), a year-on-year increase of 47% [4] - Operating profit reached 47.2063 trillion KRW (approximately 227.16 billion RMB), marking a 101% increase year-on-year, with an operating margin of 49% [4] - Net profit was 42.9479 trillion KRW (approximately 206.67 billion RMB), reflecting a 117% year-on-year growth [4] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue was 32.8267 trillion KRW (approximately 157.96 billion RMB), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% [6] - Operating profit for the fourth quarter was 19.1696 trillion KRW (approximately 922.44 billion RMB), up 68% from the previous quarter, with an operating margin of 58% [6] - Net profit for the fourth quarter was 15.2460 trillion KRW (approximately 73.36 billion RMB), a 21% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] Business Segments - In the DRAM sector, sales of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) more than doubled year-on-year, driving record performance [3] - The company has commenced mass production of the sixth generation 10nm-class (1c) DDR5 DRAM and developed a 256GB server DDR5 RDIMM module, the highest capacity in the industry [3] - In the NAND flash memory segment, SK Hynix achieved record annual sales by completing the development of 321-layer QLC products and addressing enterprise SSD demand [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a significant shareholder return policy, including an additional dividend of 1,500 KRW per share (approximately 7.2 RMB), totaling 1 trillion KRW [3] - The total dividend for fiscal year 2025 will amount to 3,000 KRW per share, with a total return scale of 2.1 trillion KRW [3] - SK Hynix plans to cancel 15.3 million treasury shares, representing 2.1% of total shares, to enhance per-share value and demonstrate a long-term commitment to shareholder value [5] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in demand for high-performance memory products, particularly as the AI market transitions from training to inference, highlighting the increasing importance of memory solutions [3]

野村证券认为，这一轮始于2025年下半年的存储超级周期至少延续至2027年，并且真正有意义的新增供 给最早要到2028年初期才会出现。野村分析师团队表示，投资者们在2026年应继续超配存储龙头，把存 储芯片价格—利润—估值三击作为2026年存储投资主线，而不是仅把存储当HBM单一题材，该机构预 计三大存储芯片公司(三星电子、SK海力士、美光科技)盈利将创历史新高。 相关概念股： 智通财经APP获悉，1月27日，中微半导、国科微2家半导体公司相继发出涨价函，公司旗下部分芯片产 品将不同程度涨价。中微半导发布的涨价通知函显示，受当前全行业芯片供应紧张、成本上升等因素的 影响，封装成品交付周期变长，成本较此前大幅度增加，框架、封测费用等成本也持续上涨。鉴于当前 严峻的供需形势以及巨大的成本压力，经过慎重研究，决定于即日起对MCU、Norflash等产品进行价格 调整，涨价幅度15%~50%。若后续成本再次发生大幅变动，价格也将跟进调整。 据产业链消息，另一家半导体公司国科微也对客户发出涨价函，国科微宣布自1月起对合封512Mb的 KGD（已知合格芯片）产品涨价40%，对合封1Gb的KGD产品涨价60%，对合封2Gb ...

Core Insights - Micron Technology is identified as a leading AI stock for 2025, with a significant price increase from $103.21 to $365.00, indicating a 251% profit potential [1] - The stock's forward P/E ratio of 11.45 is substantially lower than the semiconductor industry's average of 37.29, suggesting potential undervaluation [1] - Current stock price of $362.75 exceeds the average analyst price target of $350.46, with a potential ceiling target of $500 [2] Memory's Role in AI-Semiconductor Ecosystem - Micron's growth is linked to its role as a key memory supplier for Nvidia, with expectations that the AI surge will create a sustainable economic layer rather than a bubble [3] - AI models require significant memory resources, making them memory-bound rather than compute-bound, highlighting the importance of Micron's memory solutions [5] Micron's Market Position - Unlike competitors Nvidia and AMD, Micron operates its own fabrication facilities as an Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM), providing DDR5 DRAM for cloud computing and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators [6][7] - Micron holds a 26% market share in the global DRAM/HBM market, ranking third as of Q3 2025 [7] Production Challenges and Pricing Dynamics - The shift towards HBM production is causing DRAM price spikes due to resource reallocation, with Micron's revenue from DRAM increasing by 69% year-over-year to $10.8 billion [9][10] - HBM production is complex and time-consuming, leading to lower yields compared to standard DRAM, which incentivizes companies like Micron to capitalize on scarcity-induced profits [10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2026, Micron reported gross margins and earnings per share exceeding guidance, driven by its Cloud Memory division, which saw revenue nearly double to $5.28 billion [11] - The Automotive and Embedded division also achieved record revenue of $1.7 billion, contributing 13% to the total revenue of $13.6 billion [12] Future Outlook - The emerging robotaxi economy is expected to further enhance Micron's relevance in the AI landscape, positioning it as a critical player in the evolving market [13] - Micron has signed a $1.8 billion letter of intent to acquire Powerchip Semiconductor's fab site, with additional DRAM output anticipated by H2 2027 [14] - The timeline suggests that Micron could achieve a stock price milestone of $500 by the end of 2026, barring any significant market disruptions [15]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer, is expected to report a significant increase in operating profit for Q4 2025, driven by a severe chip shortage and rising memory chip prices, with an estimated profit of 16.9 trillion KRW (approximately 11.7 billion USD), a 160% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of DDR5 DRAM chips has surged by 314% year-on-year in Q4, due to a shift in production capacity towards AI server demands, leading to a severe supply crunch in other markets [2] - Traditional DRAM contract prices are projected to rise by 55% to 60% compared to Q4 of the previous year, while NAND flash product prices are expected to increase by 33% to 38% [2] - Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, indicating a broader trend of price increases across the industry [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Nomura Securities predicts that the current storage supercycle, which began in the second half of this year, will last at least until 2027, with significant new supply not expected until early 2028 [3] - Investors are advised to continue favoring leading storage companies in 2026, focusing on the interplay of memory chip prices, profits, and valuations as the main investment theme [3] - Global demand for memory chips is expected to outpace supply, with DRAM supply growth projected at 15% to 20% and demand growth at 20% to 25% in 2026 [2] Group 3: Related Companies - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported Q3 sales of 2.382 billion USD, a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 22% [4] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q3 revenue reached 635.2 million USD, a 20.7% year-on-year increase, driven by demand for flash, logic, and analog products [4] - Shanghai Fudan, a domestic chip design company, offers a wide range of products including security and identification chips, non-volatile memory, and FPGA chips [5]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer, is expected to report a significant increase in operating profit for Q4 2025, driven by a severe chip shortage and rising memory chip prices, with an estimated profit of 16.9 trillion KRW (approximately 11.7 billion USD), a 160% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of DDR5 DRAM chips has surged by 314% year-on-year in Q4, with traditional DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 55% to 60% compared to Q4 of the previous year [2] - The demand for high-performance memory chips from AI servers has led to a structural shortage in supply across traditional consumer electronics and industrial control sectors [1][2] - Analysts predict that the global storage chip market will remain in short supply through 2026, with DRAM demand expected to grow by 20% to 25% while supply increases by only 15% to 20% [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Samsung Electronics is anticipated to benefit significantly from the current price surge in traditional DRAM chips, as it holds a concentrated market position [2] - Nomura Securities forecasts that the storage supercycle, which began in the second half of this year, will last until at least 2027, with meaningful new supply not expected until early 2028 [3] - The three major memory chip companies (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron Technology) are projected to achieve record-high profits [3] Group 3: Related Companies - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported Q3 sales of 2.382 billion USD, a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 22% [4] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q3 revenue reached 635.2 million USD, a 20.7% year-on-year increase, driven by demand for flash, logic, and analog products [4] - Shanghai Fudan, a domestic chip design company, offers a wide range of products including security and identification chips, non-volatile memory, and FPGA chips [5]

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge driven by AI demand, marking the beginning of a "super cycle" [1][2][4] - Major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are benefiting from this price increase, with substantial growth in revenue and profit margins reported [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since October, major storage companies have raised product prices, with DDR contract prices expected to increase by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 2023 [1] - The current cycle is anticipated to last until at least the end of 2026, influenced by AI demand extending the typical three-year cycle [2][4] - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has been accelerated due to AI investments, leading to supply shortages and increased prices for DDR5 and other memory products [4][9] Group 2: Company Performance - Micron reported a strong performance for Q1 2026, with adjusted revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $5.48 billion, up 58% [5] - Samsung's Q3 2025 operating profit reached 12.16 trillion KRW (approximately $8.56 billion), a 32.2% increase year-over-year [5] - SK Hynix's Q3 2025 sales were 24.45 trillion KRW, with a year-over-year growth of 39% and an operating profit increase of 62% [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Supply Chain Considerations - The global storage market is dominated by major players, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron holding over 90% of the DRAM market share [7] - Despite rising prices, these companies are cautious about expanding production capacity, focusing instead on optimizing capital expenditures to avoid oversupply risks [8] - Demand for DRAM is expected to exceed supply growth, with a projected 26% increase in demand by 2026, leading to a potential average price increase of 58% [9]

"这是我从事存储行业以来见过的最猛一次涨价。"一名资深的存储产业高管感慨道。 10月以来，受AI需求推动，三星、海力士、美光、闪存等巨头不断上调产品价格，存储行业开启了"超 级周期"。其间，三星电子等一度暂停DDR5 DRAM合约报价，引发供应链"断粮"危机。 瑞银预计，今年第四季度，DDR（双倍数据率内存）合约定价预计季增35%、NAND（闪存）价格上涨 20%，这一轮涨价幅度远超此前预期。不仅如此，2026年第一季的DDR合约价，更将进一步上涨30%， NAND价格上涨20%。 相关影响很快传导至A股市场。Wind数据显示，今年下半年以来，香农芯创、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维 存储股价分别上涨了294.51%、291.19%、195.51%、67.17%。 "存储是个强周期行业，大概三年一个周期，但AI需求至少把周期拉长了一年，现在行业一致判断行情 至少会持续到2026年底。这里有个关键变量，全球存储龙头在之前的下跌周期里，持续降价，把存储价 格压到了历史极低值，现在存储价格反弹上来也不扩产，这就导致市场焦虑性扫货，进一步助推了涨 价。"深圳一家存储行业上市公司高管李森（化名）在接受本报记者采访时表示。超级周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by AI demand, marking the beginning of a "super cycle" in the sector [2][5][10]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have raised product prices, with DDR contract prices expected to increase by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 2023 [2][5]. - UBS forecasts that DDR contract prices will rise by an additional 30% and NAND prices by 20% in Q1 2026 [2]. - The stock prices of several A-share companies in the storage sector have surged significantly, with Shannon Chip achieving a year-to-date increase of over 394% [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The storage industry has entered a new cycle, with AI server demand increasing the shipment of storage chips, particularly DDR5 and HBM [5][6]. - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has been accelerated due to AI investments, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [6][11]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the global storage market could reach $300 billion by 2027, driven by sustained demand [6][10]. Group 3: Company Performance and Financial Results - Micron reported a strong performance for Q1 FY2026, with adjusted revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase [7]. - Samsung's Q3 2025 operating profit reached 12.16 trillion KRW (approximately $85.6 billion), a 32.2% increase year-over-year [7]. - SK Hynix's Q3 2025 sales were 24.45 trillion KRW, with a year-over-year growth of 39% [7]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Strategies - Major players are cautious about expanding production capacity, focusing instead on optimizing capital expenditures to balance customer demand and market prices [10][11]. - SK Hynix plans to shift a significant portion of its DRAM capacity to the latest 10nm products, indicating a strategic pivot rather than aggressive expansion [10]. - The cautious approach stems from the fear of overproduction if AI demand does not sustain, as seen in previous downturns [11].

"这是我从事存储行业以来见过的最猛一次涨价。" 一名资深的存储产业高管感慨道。 10月以来，受AI需求推动，三星、海力士、美光、闪存等巨头不断上调产品价格，存储行业开 启了"超级周期"。期间，三星电子等一度暂停DDR5 DRAM合约报价，引发供应链"断粮"危 机。 瑞银预计，今年第四季度，DDR（双倍数据率内存）合约定价预计季增35%、NAND（闪存） 价格上涨20%， 这一轮涨价幅度远超此前预期 。不仅如此，2026年第一季的DDR合约价，更 将进一步上涨 30% ，NAND价格上涨 20% 。 相关影响很快传导至A股市场。Wind数据显示，今年下半年以来，香农芯创、东芯股份、江波 龙、佰维存储股价分别上涨了294.51%、291.19%、195.51%、67.17%。时间拉长来看，截至 12月18日， 香农芯创年内涨幅已超394%，东芯股份年内涨近382%。 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 换手率 | 市智率 | 年初至今 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 东芯股份 | 119.94 с | 7.00% | 5.54% ...