全球最大存储芯片制造商三星电子将于周四(1月8日)公布2025年第四季度初步业绩。由于严重芯片短缺 推动存储芯片价格大幅飙升，分析师预计，三星电子第四季度营业利润将同比飙升160%。据LSEG SmartEstimate对31名分析师的预测，三星预计在10月至12月期间实现16.9万亿韩元的营业利润(约合117 亿美元)，高于上年同期的6.49万亿韩元，并将创下自2018年第三季度以来的最高季度利润。 相关概念股： 中芯国际(00981)：财报显示，中芯国际第三季度销售收入为23.82亿美元，同比增长9.7%；毛利率为 22%，环比上升1.6%。产能利用率上升至95.8%，环比增长3.3%。产品平台方面，超低功耗28纳米逻辑 工艺进入量产阶段，为客户提供了更低功耗、更高质量的解决方案；图像传感器CIS和信号处理ISP工艺 持续技术迭代，提升感光能力、画面质量、高信噪比，同时开发覆盖更多波段的光学工艺平台；嵌入式 存储平台从消费市场向车规、工业MCU(微控制器)领域拓展；特色存储Nor、NAND(均为非易失性存 储)，提供更高密度、更小尺寸、更低功耗的高可靠性存储平台。 华虹半导体(01347)：财报显示，华虹 ...

智通财经APP获悉，全球最大存储芯片制造商三星电子将于周四(1月8日)公布2025年第四季度初步业 绩。由于严重芯片短缺推动存储芯片价格大幅飙升，分析师预计，三星电子第四季度营业利润将同比飙 升160%。据LSEG SmartEstimate对31名分析师的预测，三星预计在10月至12月期间实现16.9万亿韩元的 营业利润(约合117亿美元)，高于上年同期的6.49万亿韩元，并将创下自2018年第三季度以来的最高季度 利润。 据悉，DRAM芯片广泛应用于服务器、计算机和智能手机中，用于临时存储数据，并帮助程序和应用程 序流畅快速地运行。DDR5 DRAM是一种传统芯片，比其前代产品速度更快、效率更高。 集邦咨询分析师吴怡雯表示："随着传统 DRAM 芯片价格持续暴涨，产能高度集中于该领域的三星，将 在本轮涨价周期中获得相对更大的收益。" 展望后市，国金证券认为，2026年全球存储芯片仍将供不应求，有望持续涨价，预计2026年DRAM的位 元供应量增幅约为15%至20%，而需求增速预计将达到20%至25%左右。 野村证券表示，这一轮始于今年下半年的存储超级周期至少延续至2027年，并且真正有意义的新增供给 最早 ...

"这是我从事存储行业以来见过的最猛一次涨价。"一名资深的存储产业高管感慨道。 10月以来，受AI需求推动，三星、海力士、美光、闪存等巨头不断上调产品价格，存储行业开启了"超 级周期"。期间，三星电子等一度暂停DDR5 DRAM合约报价，引发供应链"断粮"危机。 瑞银预计，今年第四季度，DDR（双倍数据率内存）合约定价预计季增35%、NAND（闪存）价格上涨 20%，这一轮涨价幅度远超此前预期。不仅如此，2026年第一季的DDR合约价，更将进一步上涨30%， NAND价格上涨20%。 相关影响很快传导至A股市场。Wind数据显示，今年下半年以来，香农芯创、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维 存储股价分别上涨了294.51%、291.19%、195.51%、67.17%。 "存储是个强周期行业，大概三年一个周期，但AI需求至少把周期拉长了一年，现在行业一致判断行情 至少会持续到2026年底。这里有个关键变量，全球存储龙头在之前的下跌周期里，持续降价，把存储价 格压到了历史极低值，现在存储价格反弹上来也不扩产，这就导致市场焦虑性扫货，进一步助推了涨 价。"深圳一家存储行业上市公司高管李森（化名）在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时 ...

"这是我从事存储行业以来见过的最猛一次涨价。"一名资深的存储产业高管感慨道。 10月以来，受AI需求推动，三星、海力士、美光、闪存等巨头不断上调产品价格，存储行业开启了"超 级周期"。其间，三星电子等一度暂停DDR5 DRAM合约报价，引发供应链"断粮"危机。 瑞银预计，今年第四季度，DDR（双倍数据率内存）合约定价预计季增35%、NAND（闪存）价格上涨 20%，这一轮涨价幅度远超此前预期。不仅如此，2026年第一季的DDR合约价，更将进一步上涨30%， NAND价格上涨20%。 相关影响很快传导至A股市场。Wind数据显示，今年下半年以来，香农芯创、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维 存储股价分别上涨了294.51%、291.19%、195.51%、67.17%。 "存储是个强周期行业，大概三年一个周期，但AI需求至少把周期拉长了一年，现在行业一致判断行情 至少会持续到2026年底。这里有个关键变量，全球存储龙头在之前的下跌周期里，持续降价，把存储价 格压到了历史极低值，现在存储价格反弹上来也不扩产，这就导致市场焦虑性扫货，进一步助推了涨 价。"深圳一家存储行业上市公司高管李森（化名）在接受本报记者采访时表示。超级周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by AI demand, marking the beginning of a "super cycle" in the sector [2][5][10]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have raised product prices, with DDR contract prices expected to increase by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 2023 [2][5]. - UBS forecasts that DDR contract prices will rise by an additional 30% and NAND prices by 20% in Q1 2026 [2]. - The stock prices of several A-share companies in the storage sector have surged significantly, with Shannon Chip achieving a year-to-date increase of over 394% [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The storage industry has entered a new cycle, with AI server demand increasing the shipment of storage chips, particularly DDR5 and HBM [5][6]. - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has been accelerated due to AI investments, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [6][11]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the global storage market could reach $300 billion by 2027, driven by sustained demand [6][10]. Group 3: Company Performance and Financial Results - Micron reported a strong performance for Q1 FY2026, with adjusted revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase [7]. - Samsung's Q3 2025 operating profit reached 12.16 trillion KRW (approximately $85.6 billion), a 32.2% increase year-over-year [7]. - SK Hynix's Q3 2025 sales were 24.45 trillion KRW, with a year-over-year growth of 39% [7]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Strategies - Major players are cautious about expanding production capacity, focusing instead on optimizing capital expenditures to balance customer demand and market prices [10][11]. - SK Hynix plans to shift a significant portion of its DRAM capacity to the latest 10nm products, indicating a strategic pivot rather than aggressive expansion [10]. - The cautious approach stems from the fear of overproduction if AI demand does not sustain, as seen in previous downturns [11].

"这是我从事存储行业以来见过的最猛一次涨价。" 一名资深的存储产业高管感慨道。 10月以来，受AI需求推动，三星、海力士、美光、闪存等巨头不断上调产品价格，存储行业开 启了"超级周期"。期间，三星电子等一度暂停DDR5 DRAM合约报价，引发供应链"断粮"危 机。 瑞银预计，今年第四季度，DDR（双倍数据率内存）合约定价预计季增35%、NAND（闪存） 价格上涨20%， 这一轮涨价幅度远超此前预期 。不仅如此，2026年第一季的DDR合约价，更 将进一步上涨 30% ，NAND价格上涨 20% 。 相关影响很快传导至A股市场。Wind数据显示，今年下半年以来，香农芯创、东芯股份、江波 龙、佰维存储股价分别上涨了294.51%、291.19%、195.51%、67.17%。时间拉长来看，截至 12月18日， 香农芯创年内涨幅已超394%，东芯股份年内涨近382%。 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 换手率 | 市智率 | 年初至今 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 东芯股份 | 119.94 с | 7.00% | 5.54% ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge driven by AI demand, marking the beginning of a "super cycle" that is expected to last until at least the end of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have raised product prices, with DDR contract prices expected to increase by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 2023 [1]. - The stock prices of companies in the storage sector have surged, with Shannon Chip, Dongxin Co., Jiangbolong, and Baiwei Storage seeing increases of 294.51%, 291.19%, 195.51%, and 67.17% respectively in the second half of this year [1]. - The current cycle is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by AI's unexpected demand, leading to a significant rebound in prices after a prolonged down cycle [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Key Players - Micron reported a strong performance for Q1 FY2026, with adjusted revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net profit of $5.48 billion, also up 58% [3][4]. - Samsung Electronics achieved an operating profit of 12.16 trillion KRW (approximately $8.56 billion) in Q3 2025, a 32.2% increase year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations [4]. - SK Hynix reported Q3 2025 sales of 24.45 trillion KRW, with a year-over-year growth of 39% and an operating profit of 11.38 trillion KRW, reflecting a 62% increase [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Industry Trends - The global storage market is projected to reach $300 billion by 2027, driven by AI demand and the ongoing super cycle [3]. - Companies are cautious about expanding production capacity due to previous downturns, with Samsung and SK Hynix indicating a reluctance to rapidly increase production [7][8]. - Demand for DRAM is expected to outpace supply growth, with a projected 26% increase in demand for 2026 compared to a 20% increase in supply, leading to a potential price increase of 58% for DRAM [8].

Core Insights - The report indicates an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors, with most metal prices rising and strong performance in the new energy materials market [1][6][12] - The report suggests a potential cyclical recovery in 2026, driven by a resonance between the US and China, and recommends positioning in cyclical sectors during market adjustments [1][12] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased, indicating positive momentum in the semiconductor sector [28] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen week-on-week, reflecting strong demand driven by AI model iterations and storage needs [24][28] - The October NB LCD shipment volume has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over three months, suggesting a recovery in demand for laptops and displays [28] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with significant rises in VC, manganese lithium, and other materials, driven by ongoing demand and supply chain optimization [22][26] - The price index for photovoltaic products has decreased week-on-week, indicating potential challenges in the solar energy sector [22][26] - The production of packaging equipment has turned negative year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in this segment [22][26] Consumer Demand - The average price of vegetables and fruits has increased due to seasonal supply constraints and extreme weather conditions, with notable price rises in corn and other agricultural products [19][21] - The film industry has seen a decline in box office revenue, while ticket prices have increased, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer entertainment spending [19][21] Resource Products - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, zinc, and nickel showing upward trends, while coal prices have fluctuated due to weak downstream demand [27] - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, reflecting a recovery in construction activity [27] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics [27] Financial and Real Estate - The report notes an increase in land transaction premium rates and a rise in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [27] - The A-share market has experienced a decline in turnover rate and daily transaction volume, suggesting cautious investor sentiment [27] Public Utilities - Natural gas prices in China have decreased, while electricity generation has seen a widening year-on-year decline, indicating challenges in the energy sector [27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market, particularly in the AI and chip sectors, experienced a strong rebound due to the dual catalysts of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the launch of the "Genesis Plan" aimed at transforming scientific research through AI [1][7]. Market Performance - As of 10:13 AM, the AI-focused ETF (589560) surged over 2.5%, while the chip-focused ETF (588750) rose more than 2% [1]. - Notable stocks included: - Chip Yuan Co. increased by over 7% - SourceJet Technology rose by over 6% - Hengxuan Technology gained over 4% [4]. Key Stocks in ETFs - For the Chip ETF (588750), the top ten stocks included: - Haiguang Information: 0.15% increase, 11.11% weight - Zhongben International: 1.34% increase, 9.05% weight - Cambrian-U: -0.09% decrease, 8.78% weight - SourceJet Technology: 6.64% increase, 2.42% weight [5]. - For the AI ETF (589560), the top ten stocks included: - Cambrian-U: 0.16% increase, 13.90% weight - Kingsoft Office: -0.60% decrease, 10.67% weight - SourceJet Technology: 3.38% increase, 10.66% weight [6]. Economic Indicators - The market's optimism was fueled by comments from the San Francisco Fed President, who supported a potential rate cut in December, raising expectations from 40% to 80% for a 25 basis point cut [7]. - The "Genesis Plan" aims to leverage AI for scientific advancements, further boosting market sentiment [7]. Semiconductor Market Insights - Analysts noted a "fully sold out" market condition for storage chip suppliers, with DDR5 DRAM experiencing the most significant tightness [7]. - The semiconductor cycle is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by AI demand, with the global AI-driven storage market projected to grow from $28.7 billion in 2024 to $255.2 billion by 2034, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24% [9]. Investment Strategy - The focus on AI and domestic substitution in the semiconductor sector presents a compelling investment opportunity, particularly through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588750), which emphasizes high-quality chip companies [10][13]. - The ETF's index is expected to show a net profit growth rate of 94% for the first three quarters of 2025, with an anticipated 100% growth for the entire year [14].

| 代码 名称 | | 现价 | 张跌 | 张唱↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688727 N 自由 | | 58.28 +43.29+288.79% | | | | 688486 龙迅股份 | | 79.86 +13.31 +20.00% | | | | 688099 晶晨股份 | | 90.30 +10.15 +12.43% | | | | 688110 东芯胶份 | | 107.41 +10.94 +11.34% | | | | 002213 大为股份 | | 30.28 | +2.75 | +9.99% | | 688699 明微电子 | | 45.18 | +4.04 | +9.82% | | 688652 京仪装备 | | 98.22 | +7.02 | +7.70% | | 002371 | 北方华创 | 422.80 +22.12 | | +5.52% | | 688147 微导纳米 | | 62.70 | +3.22 | +5.41% | | 688498 源杰科技 | | 555.50 +28.49 | | +5.27% | | 688401 ...