[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 美国修订出口管制条例，国产链加速发展 事件： [Table_Summary] 当地时间 2025 年 9 月 12 日，美国商务部工业与安全局以"违背美国国 家安全或外交政策利益"为由，发布公告，称修订了《出口管理条 例》，共将 32 个实体添加到管制实体名单中，其中涵盖中国（23 个）。 核心观点： ➢ 海外引领，全球算力迎来共振时刻 （1）Oracle 业绩指引大超预期，Capex 指引超预期：财报数据显示，甲 骨文第一季度总收入达到 149 亿美元，按美元计算同比增长 12%。其中， 云收入总计 72 亿美元，同比大幅增长 28%，成为驱动公司整体业绩的核 心引擎。其中，IaaS 收入为 33 亿美元，同比激增 55%，反映出市场对甲 骨文高性能、安全云基础设施的旺盛需求。在手订单暴增，业绩增长确 定性强，公司 RPO（剩余履约义务，即尚未确认的合同收入）总额激增 至 4550 亿美元，同比增幅高达 359%；（2）CCL 上游供需缺口大：Rubin CPX 可能对于 HVLP4 单月需求扩大到 600-700t，而海外龙头三井明年 RTF 产 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the PCB industry, driven by the rapid growth in AI demand and technological advancements [5][20]. Core Insights - The PCB industry is undergoing a structural upgrade, with AI computing power demand being a core variable reshaping the market landscape. The global PCB market is expected to exceed $78.6 billion by 2025, with AI servers, smart electric vehicles, and high-speed communication devices as the main growth pillars [5][20]. - The report highlights that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI server PCBs is projected to reach 32.5%, significantly higher than the industry average, driven by advancements in GPU architectures [5][6]. - The introduction of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP is expected to enhance PCB value and performance, indicating a shift towards more complex and high-density designs [16][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - PCB is a fundamental component in electronic devices, categorized by layers, structure, and technical characteristics. The industry is seeing a shift towards high-density interconnect (HDI) boards and multi-layer boards due to the increasing complexity of electronic systems [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is projected to grow from approximately $73.6 billion in 2024 to $78.6 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 5.2%. High-end PCBs are expected to be the main growth drivers, with AI-related PCBs currently valued at $5.6 billion [8][19]. - The report notes that the value of AI server PCBs has increased from $500 to over $2,500 due to the rising demand for high-end applications [8]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the increasing requirements for PCBs in AI applications, including the need for higher layer counts and advanced materials to ensure signal integrity and performance [6][10]. - The introduction of glass substrates as a potential alternative to traditional organic substrates is highlighted, with advantages in surface flatness and thermal stability [18]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies a concentrated market for high-end PCBs, with leading companies benefiting from technological barriers and scale advantages. In contrast, the mid-to-low-end PCB market remains highly competitive [19]. - Domestic companies are positioned favorably in the AI PCB sector, with ongoing capacity shortages and opportunities to penetrate overseas supply chains [19]. Investment Trends - The report notes that the PCB industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end development driven by technological innovations in electronics and communication sectors, with significant investment activities noted in upstream materials and equipment [20][21].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - Mitsui Metal plans to expand its high-end HVLP copper foil production capacity from 580 tons to 840 tons per month, reflecting a 45% increase due to unexpected demand from AI servers [2][4] - The expansion includes an increase in monthly production capacity at the Taiwan plant from 420 tons to 520 tons, with further increases planned to reach 720 tons by March and September 2026 [4] - The HVLP-5 copper foil is expected to transition from the development stage to mass production, indicating potential widespread adoption in next-generation CCL and AI servers [5] Summary by Sections Industry Demand - The demand for the sector is expected to grow significantly, with potential catalysts such as price increases and high-end product sample validations [6] Company Performance - Companies to watch include Tongguan Copper Foil, Defu Technology, Longyang Electronics, Jiayuan Technology, Zhongyi Technology, and Nord Shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39 million yuan, up 136.71% year-on-year [1]. - The lithium battery copper foil business has shown rapid growth, achieving revenue of 4.109 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 99.11% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.63%, up 4.27% year-on-year [8]. - The company is accelerating its high-end product matrix layout, particularly in HVLP copper foil, which is expected to see increased demand due to AI applications [8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and pursuing acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a Luxembourg copper foil giant, which will enhance its market position in high-end copper foil products [8]. - A strategic investment of 500 million yuan from a local industrial fund is expected to accelerate the expansion of high-end production capacity [8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6.531 billion yuan for 2023, 7.805 billion yuan for 2024, and 10.746 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 2.36%, 19.51%, and 37.67% respectively [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 106 million yuan, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching 370 million yuan in 2026 and 578 million yuan in 2027 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.39 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.17 yuan in 2025, and further increasing to 0.59 yuan in 2026 and 0.92 yuan in 2027 [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 216.62 for 2025, decreasing to 62.29 in 2026 and 39.88 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings recover [2]. Market Data - As of August 29, 2025, the company's stock closed at 36.59 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 10.67 to 42.04 yuan [3]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 23.06 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 38 million shares [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The company operates in the Low DK glass fiber sector and has achieved breakthroughs in production and certification, with mass production expected by the end of September 2025, starting with an initial capacity of 500 tons per year at a price of 200,000 RMB per ton, significantly higher than ordinary glass fiber yarn [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity Expansion**: The company plans to add three oil furnaces by 2026, totaling 1,500 tons of capacity, including both first and second-generation Low DK glass fiber, with the second-generation product expected to reach 600,000 RMB per ton [2][3][5]. - **High Demand for HDI PCB**: Orders for high-end HDI PCBs are booked until June 2026, with automotive orders accounting for 58% and home appliances for 15-16% of total orders in the first half of 2025, indicating strong market demand [2][5][9]. - **Global PCB Market Growth**: The global PCB market value reached over 70 billion USD in 2025, growing by over 10% year-on-year, and is projected to exceed 90 billion USD by 2029, driven by advancements in 5G/5.5G/6G technologies and AI-related demand [2][5][9]. - **Monthly Shipment Goals**: The company aims to maintain monthly shipments of 9.5 to 10 million copper-clad laminates in the second half of the year, despite a total capacity of 11 million, due to an increase in the proportion of high-end special products [2][6][9]. - **Price Adjustments**: The company has implemented two price adjustments in March and August, approximately 10% and 10 USD per unit respectively, which are expected to improve gross margins in the second half of the year, targeting a gross margin exceeding 20% [4][7][8]. Additional Important Information - **Production Bottlenecks**: The current global production capacity for Low DK glass fiber is only 8,800 tons, primarily concentrated among a few companies in Japan and China, which limits the production of high-end products like HDI PCBs [3][5]. - **Future Product Development**: The company is developing M6 and M7 panels, with plans to launch M8 and M9 in 2026, but significant profits from these products are not expected until 2027 or 2028 due to the need for extensive testing and customer certification [6][9]. - **Customer Feedback**: Positive feedback has been received from customers regarding the Low DK glass fiber, with some key clients insisting on its use for their products [10][11]. - **CPE Fabric Production**: The company plans to produce 2.5 million meters of CPE fabric monthly, with an annual capacity of 30 million meters based on current production capabilities [12]. - **Resin Business Development**: The company is focusing on high-end markets for resin products, particularly in bulletproof glass applications, and is developing hybrid display technology with promising prospects [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives, market dynamics, and future growth potential in the Low DK glass fiber and PCB sectors.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, particularly focusing on companies involved in local production and supply chain integration in Africa [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing regulatory changes aimed at curbing excessive production and ensuring market stability, particularly in coal and other upstream industries [1][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, suggesting that companies like Keda Manufacturing are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [2][13]. - The report identifies high demand for advanced materials such as RTF copper foil and HVLP copper foil, indicating a significant growth potential in the PCB upstream materials market [3][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the recent regulatory changes, including the draft amendment to the Price Law aimed at clarifying standards for unfair pricing practices [1][12]. - It notes that the coal industry is under strict production limits, with annual output not exceeding announced capacity [1][12]. - The report suggests that the current focus on curbing overproduction is crucial for emerging industries like new energy vehicles [1][12]. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a weekly increase of 7.88%, with notable performances from the cement manufacturing sector, which rose by 13.66% [21]. - The report indicates that the average price of cement is currently 341 RMB per ton, down 47 RMB year-on-year [15]. - Glass prices have seen a slight increase, with the average price reaching 1238.61 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.20% rise [15]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices have decreased by 0.9% this week, with significant drops in regions like Jilin and Hunan [32]. - The report notes that the average price of non-alkali winding yarn is 3618.50 RMB per ton, down 0.84% from the previous week [64]. - The floating glass market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing due to improved demand and reduced inventory levels [32][47]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions that the government has allocated 69 billion RMB in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, which may benefit companies in the construction materials sector [16]. Important Changes - The report highlights the introduction of the Rural Road Regulations, which will take effect in September 2025, potentially impacting infrastructure development [17]. - It also notes the approval of a new industrial merger fund by Keshun Co., indicating ongoing consolidation in the sector [17]. Economic Outlook - The report assesses the economic conditions affecting the construction materials sector, noting that demand remains subdued in traditional markets while emerging markets like Africa show robust growth potential [19]. - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics and regulatory environments to capitalize on growth opportunities [19].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **copper foil** and **electronic fabric** industries, highlighting the impact of AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics demand on the copper foil market [1][4]. Key Points on Copper Foil Market - The demand for **high-volume low-pressure (HVLP)** copper foil is driven by the need for high-speed signal transmission in AI servers and 5G/6G communications, with a projected global demand of **50,000 to 60,000 tons** by **2026** [1][6]. - The processing cost for the fourth generation of HVLP copper foil is approximately **200,000 RMB per ton**, which is three times that of the second generation, indicating a tight supply and high technical barriers in the high-end copper foil market [1][6]. - Domestic manufacturers currently hold a low market share in the high-end HVLP copper foil sector, with Japanese and Taiwanese companies dominating. However, the slow expansion of Japanese manufacturers presents opportunities for domestic firms [1][7]. - Companies like **Tongguan** and **Defu** are positioned to benefit from domestic substitution opportunities, with Defu having acquired technology through a Luxembourg company and supplying major clients like Amazon and Meta [1][8][9]. Financial Projections - The company aims to capture **30% market share** in the RTF and HVLP markets, with an expected profit contribution of **800 million to 1 billion RMB** corresponding to a **20% market share** by **2026** [2][10]. - **Tongguan** anticipates a doubling of RTF shipments to **10,000 tons** and HVLP shipments to **4,000 tons** in **2025**, with over **50%** of its clients being Taiwanese enterprises [10]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end HVLP copper foil market is currently led by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, with domestic companies like **Defu** and **Longyang** working to enhance their market presence [7][9]. - Longyang is focusing on fifth-generation products and has received validation from several copper-clad laminate manufacturers, with plans for production to begin in **Q4 2025** [10]. Electronic Fabric Market Insights - The electronic fabric sector is represented by companies like **Zhongcai Technology** and **Feilihua**, which are advancing in special glass fiber materials. Zhongcai expects a significant increase in its special fiber material production by the end of **2026** [11][17]. - The market for **quartz fabric** is anticipated to grow, driven by the increasing demand for high-end materials in AI and mobile chip applications, with significant potential for profit margins exceeding those of previous generations of materials [14][15]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The second-generation electronic fabric production faces challenges such as high waste generation and low yield rates, but improvements in technology and production processes are expected to enhance yield in the coming years [16]. - The demand for low-expansion sand is projected to grow significantly, with TSMC's production capacity expected to increase substantially, indicating a robust market outlook for related materials [15]. Conclusion - The copper foil and electronic fabric industries are poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from AI and telecommunications sectors. Domestic manufacturers are strategically positioned to capitalize on market opportunities, despite facing competition from established foreign players.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper foil and electronic cloth sectors within the PCB upstream materials industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high demand for high-end PCB materials, particularly RTF and HVLP copper foils, which are essential for high-frequency and high-speed circuit boards. The production of HVLP copper foil is challenging due to the need for low profile and high peel strength [1][12]. - The electronic cloth market is also highlighted, with advancements in technology, such as NVIDIA's potential new techniques, expected to drive demand for quartz cloth. The report notes the advantages of quartz cloth over low-dielectric electronic cloth in terms of dielectric constant and loss [2][13]. - The report identifies Keda Manufacturing as a leading player in the African building materials market, with significant growth in net profit driven by price optimization and new ceramic capacity. The company is well-positioned to benefit from local production and consumption in Africa [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, particularly focusing on copper foil and electronic cloth. It notes the low domestic production rate of high-end copper foil and the significant upgrade potential in the supply chain [1][12]. 2. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices have decreased to an average of 344 RMB/t, with a year-on-year drop of 46 RMB. The average utilization rate for concrete mixing stations is reported at 7.26% [3][15]. - The average price of float glass has increased slightly to 1211.96 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 0.58%. The report indicates a decrease in inventory days for production enterprises [3][15]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the glass fiber market, with prices for 2400tex alkali-free winding yarn averaging 3649 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decline [3][15]. 3. National Subsidy Tracking - A new initiative in Yunnan Province offers subsidies for home improvement products aimed at elderly consumers, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 RMB per household [4][16]. 4. Important Changes - Keda Manufacturing expects a net profit of 700-790 million RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54-74% [5][18]. - Huaxin Cement anticipates a net profit of 1.096-1.132 billion RMB for the same period, reflecting a 50-55% increase [5][18]. 5. Market Performance - The building materials index has shown a decline of 0.89% this week, with specific sectors like cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experiencing varied performance [21][27]. 6. Building Material Price Changes - The report notes a continued decline in national cement prices, with a 1% decrease this week. The average utilization rate for cement enterprises is around 46% [33][33]. - The float glass market remains stable, with slight price increases observed in certain regions, while the overall supply-demand balance remains tight [45][46].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electronic materials industry, specifically focusing on **copper foil**, **electronic cloth**, and **resin** as key materials in the PCB upstream sector [2][3][4]. Key Points on Companies and Market Dynamics 1. **Market Position and Technology of Zhongcai Technology** - Zhongcai Technology holds a leading position in LODk generations and CTE electronic cloth due to its technological reserves and downstream recognition, despite the market solutions not being fully determined [1][3]. 2. **Copper Foil Market Dynamics** - The copper foil market is characterized by a scarcity of players, with a significant upgrade opportunity from second-generation to fourth-generation HVLP copper foil. The domestic replacement space is substantial, with Tongguan Copper Foil expected to increase its market share as a state-owned enterprise [1][4][6]. 3. **Q Division Development Outlook** - The development of Q Division is influenced by the timing of Rubin's volume release, expected in the second half of 2026. Companies like Taibo, Zhongcai Technology, and Feilihua are well-positioned, with production capacity guidance for 2027 being optimistic [1][5]. 4. **High-End Copper Foil and Lithium Battery Copper Foil** - High-end copper foil and lithium battery copper foil have been overlooked due to industry downturns. Domestic companies like Tongguan Copper Foil have made breakthroughs in R&D, leading to increased domestic market share to avoid supply bottlenecks [6]. 5. **CTE Cloth Supply Shortage** - A shortage of CTE cloth began in mid-May, with expectations of lasting 16 to 20 weeks. Taibo has performed well in CPE cloth layout, with production capacity expected to expand significantly [7]. 6. **CPE Cloth Pricing** - CPE cloth prices are comparable to second-generation cloth, with mainstream models priced between 110 to 120 yuan. Higher CPE values can lead to prices nearing 200 yuan, indicating significant potential for performance upgrades [8]. 7. **Special Wave Fiber Industry Profit Forecast** - The special wave fiber industry is projected to achieve profits of 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding market value of 50 to 55 billion yuan. There are also marginal updates expected in the electronic cloth and copper foil sectors [9]. 8. **Copper Foil Market Space Evaluation** - The copper foil market space should exclude raw materials and focus on processing fees, which are estimated to be comparable to electronic materials. The current structure indicates that raw materials account for 40%, electronic materials for 30%, and resins for 20% [14]. 9. **Future Development of Electronic Cloth and Copper Foil Markets** - The electronic cloth and copper foil markets are expected to see significant growth in 2026, with AI PCB projected to have a market space of around 70 billion yuan, potentially reaching 100 billion yuan under optimistic scenarios [15]. 10. **Performance Expectations for Zhongcai Technology and Tongguan** - By 2026, Zhongcai Technology's special glass business is expected to reach 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan, while Tongguan is projected to achieve around 850 to 900 million yuan. Both companies have similar market shares, but their performance may differ due to additional business segments [17]. 11. **Investment Recommendations** - Companies like Tongguan and Zhongcai Technology are highlighted as key investment targets due to their expected performance and market positioning. Zhongcai Technology is noted for its high certainty in profit release and supply certification [18][19]. Additional Insights - The copper foil industry is not lagging behind the electronic cloth sector, as both are developing synchronously. The performance release of key players indicates a robust growth trajectory for both segments [10]. - The current preference for copper over cloth is attributed to the stability and reliability of copper solutions compared to cloth alternatives [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electronic materials industry and the companies involved.