Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced slight weakness with the first LPR reduction of the year, leading to a potential observation period for policy effectiveness and possible increased liquidity supply from the central bank [1][5] Market Performance - Government bond futures mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down 0.03% and the 10-year main contract up 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.6625% [2] Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 3.1% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.256% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had lower winning yields than market estimates, with 5-year and 10-year yields at 1.5195% and 1.6495%, respectively [4] - Local government bonds in Heilongjiang showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 23 times [4] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3570 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1770 billion yuan [5] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, which is expected to reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8%, advocating for a strategy of increasing holdings during adjustments [7] - Citic Fixed Income notes that the average weighted loan interest rate has dropped to a historical low of 3.75%, with expectations for further declines following the LPR cut [8]

中金研究 中国房地产政策的框架自2022年以来已经展现了诸多变化，往前看其仍将动态应对实体市场的变化 与挑战。眼下尽管中国房地产政策工具的丰富程度已然不低，但鉴于仍需在外部经济环境不确定性 加大、行业内部压力仍待疏解、以及各地区要素条件有所分化的背景下，持续推进止跌回稳，未来 中国房地产政策可能如何施力，还可以做哪些考虑，我们在此简述我们的一些思考与建议。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 止跌回稳的前置条件究竟是什么？我们认为或许首先是促进资产盘活，恢复行业流动性。 从国际比较 的视角看，中国本轮房地产市场的调整过程具有典型性，除了销售量价下行，库存升高以外，一个主要 的挑战是市场流动性不足，这既包括资产交易的难度加大，也包括企业的货币资源和现金流条件相对紧 张。然而从一个市场修复的时序来看，可能首要的是向居民和企业部门两端通过有效渠道注入适当的流 动性，然后可以渐进的推动实体市场供需格局与资产价格预期改善。其次，在比较大幅度的市场调整 中，尤其市场还处于去杠杆前期的阶段，针对企业端的流动性改善，以形成资产负债表企稳的路径，可 能相较于对需求侧的动员，是更有针对性的举措。 对于中国房地产政策， ...

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降 准、扩大公开市场操作规模等方式增加流动性供给，支持财政政策发挥出最大功效。但短期来 看，政策余量充足而不急于落地，虽然目前宽货币空间打开，但结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济 数据超预期，汇率压力仍存等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ▍ 风险因素： 货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于当日发布的《 晨会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报告的摘编而产生歧 义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 我们测算二季度国债净融资规模约1 . 7 7万亿元，较往年同期高出约7 0 0 0亿元；地方债总发行规模 为2 . 8万亿元，净发行规模约2万亿元。货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货 币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降准、扩大公开市场操作规模等方式增加流动性供给。但短期来 看，政策余量充足而不急于全部落地，结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济数据超预期，汇率压力仍存 等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ...