2025 年 8 月 26 日 盈利预测、估值与评级：2025H1，受终端需求及关税政策影响，公司染颜料产 品未能进一步放量，同时叠加费用增长及存货跌价准备的影响，公司业绩不及预 期。考虑到染颜料营收增速不及预期，以及公司费用的增长，我们下调公司 2025-2026 年盈利预测，新增 2027 年盈利预测。预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净 利润分别为 1.08（前值为 2.50）/1.64（前值为 3.13）/2.25 亿元。公司基于自 身核心关键技术，延伸布局 PPDI、MXD6 等高性能新材料品种，有望为公司打 开新的成长空间，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示：产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期，新产品推广进度不及预 期，产能建设风险。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 费用增长及存货跌价拖累业绩，关注 MXD6 等新材料推广进度 ——七彩化学（300758.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收 7.59 亿元， 同比增长 2.75%；实现归母净利润 5247 万元，同比减少 21.91%；实现扣非后 归母净利润 5961 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with global sales projected to reach 12,400 units and a market size of 6.339 billion yuan by 2025, and over 5 million units with a market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2035 [22][25] - PEEK is highlighted as an excellent lightweight material, with China's PEEK industrial chain progressing rapidly, although actual production ramp-up may face delays due to construction and validation cycles [26][27] - MXD6 is gaining traction among domestic manufacturers, with its lightweight and high rigidity characteristics expected to enhance its market presence as production increases [31][32] - Carbon fiber prices are stabilizing, benefiting leading manufacturers with scale and cost advantages, particularly in aerospace and low-altitude economic sectors [37][38] - Engineering plastics are recognized for their balanced performance and wide application in industrial parts, with specific recommendations for companies like Kingfa Sci & Tech and Plit [41][44] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is a vast blue ocean with significant growth potential, driven by technological advancements and policy support [22][25] - Major companies are actively launching humanoid robot products, indicating a rapid industrialization process that will boost demand for lightweight materials [25] PEEK Materials - PEEK is characterized by high rigidity, toughness, and excellent thermal and chemical resistance, making it a prime candidate for lightweight applications [26][27] - China's PEEK production capacity is expanding, with key players like Zhongyan Co. and Zhejiang Pengfulong leading the charge [28][29] MXD6 Engineering Plastics - MXD6 is noted for its lightweight and high rigidity, with domestic production expected to increase significantly, enhancing its cost-effectiveness and market applications [31][32] - Companies like Qicai Chemical and Sinochem International are positioned to capitalize on the growing MXD6 market [35][36] Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber is recognized for its superior properties and is seeing price stabilization, which is beneficial for leading manufacturers [37][38] - Companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Jilin Carbon Valley are highlighted for their production capabilities in this sector [38][40] Engineering Plastics - Engineering plastics are essential for various industrial applications, with specific recommendations for companies like Kingfa Sci & Tech and Plit, which are leaders in modified plastics [41][44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "capacity governance" and "technological innovation" in driving economic growth and addressing challenges in China's economy [4] - The meeting highlighted that while the economy shows resilience and progress, it still faces significant risks and challenges [4] - The focus is on deepening reforms and fostering new competitive industries through technological innovation and integration with industrial innovation [4] Group 2 - A new round of supply-side reforms is emerging, benefiting leading companies in the chemical sub-industry as old capacities are phased out [5] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization and profit margins, with a utilization rate of only 71.9% and a profit margin of 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [5][6] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry has passed, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure, which is expected to improve industry conditions [6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is crucial for the country's future development, with a focus on "domestic substitution" in materials [7] - The industry has made significant progress in overcoming technological barriers set by foreign manufacturers, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-performance new materials [7] - The emphasis is on investing resources in critical materials that have not yet achieved domestic production to ensure safety and self-sufficiency [7]

Core Viewpoint - MXD6, a type of crystalline polyamide, has significant potential in various applications due to its high gas barrier properties and mechanical strength, particularly in food packaging and engineering plastics [2][3][4]. Group 1: MXD6 Characteristics and Industrialization - MXD6 is produced through the polycondensation of MXDA and adipic acid, featuring high gas barrier, rigidity, thermal stability, and low water absorption [2]. - The industrialization of MXD6 began in the 1980s by Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, leveraging its unique molecular structure for superior performance [2]. Group 2: Application in Food and Beverage Packaging - Due to its excellent oxygen and carbon dioxide barrier capabilities, MXD6 is suitable for food and beverage packaging, extending shelf life and enabling lightweight packaging solutions [3]. - The market size for the prepared dishes industry in China is projected to reach approximately 697.2 billion yuan in 2024, while the carbonated beverage market is estimated at about 19.3 billion USD, and the tea beverage market at around 22.2 billion USD [3]. Group 3: Engineering Plastics Applications - MXD6's lightweight and high rigidity make it a promising candidate for modified engineering plastics in sectors such as automotive, electronics, drones, and aerospace [4]. - In the automotive sector, glass fiber-reinforced MXD6 can be used in critical engine components, although its current market share in China's specialty engineering plastics is minimal, at only 0.8% [4][5]. Group 4: Domestic Production and Market Potential - Domestic manufacturers are expected to break the technological barriers and increase MXD6 production, with a projected global output of 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2024 [6]. - Key domestic players include Qicai Chemical, which has a current capacity of 5,000 tons/year and plans for further expansion, and Zhonghua International, which has achieved stable product quality comparable to imports [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the MXD6 industry [5] Core Insights - MXD6, a type of crystalline polyamide, has high gas barrier properties and rigidity, making it suitable for various applications, particularly in food and beverage packaging [1][2] - The domestic MXD6 market is expected to grow significantly as local manufacturers ramp up production, breaking the previous monopolies held by foreign companies [4][29] Summary by Sections 1. MXD6 Characteristics - MXD6 is characterized by high gas barrier properties and rigidity, which are enhanced by its molecular structure that includes aromatic rings [1][20] - The production of MXD6 primarily utilizes direct melt polycondensation, which is more efficient and yields higher quality products compared to other methods [17][19] 2. Applications of MXD6 - In the food and beverage packaging sector, MXD6 can significantly extend shelf life and reduce packaging weight, with a projected market size for prepared dishes in China reaching approximately 697.2 billion yuan by 2024 [2][37] - MXD6 is also applicable in automotive, electronics, and aerospace industries due to its lightweight and high mechanical strength, with potential uses in engine components and structural parts [3][52] 3. Domestic Production and Market Potential - Domestic manufacturers like Qicai Chemical and Sinochem International are expanding their production capacities, with Qicai Chemical already achieving 5,000 tons/year and planning for further expansion [4][54] - The global MXD6 production is estimated to reach 30,000 to 40,000 tons by 2024, with significant contributions from domestic players [4] 4. Market Demand and Growth - The report highlights a substantial demand for MXD6 in the carbonated beverage and tea beverage markets, with the total market size for soft drinks in the Greater China region projected to be around 138.4 billion USD by 2024 [43][44] - The anticipated growth in the prepared dishes market and the beverage industry presents a considerable opportunity for MXD6 usage, with potential consumption in the prepared dishes sector alone estimated at 2.9 million tons under optimistic scenarios [42][50]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is facing frequent accidents, impacting the supply of chemicals such as caprolactam [2] - The recent accident at China Pingmei Shenma Group's nylon technology company will affect the supply of related chemical products, with a focus on stricter safety regulations for high-risk chemical reactions [2] - Leading companies in the chemical industry are expected to maintain orderly production through enhanced safety management and advanced production technologies [2] Group 2 - Nylon, known for its excellent properties, has a wide range of downstream applications, with significant consumption expected to grow [3] - In 2024, the apparent consumption of nylon 6 and nylon 66 is projected to be 531.6 million tons and 73.9 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 22.2% and 41.2% [3] - Companies such as Polyone and Taihua New Materials are recommended for investment in the nylon and specialty nylon industry chain [3] Group 3 - Caprolactam is a crucial organic chemical raw material primarily used to produce nylon 6, with a current production capacity of 7.1 million tons per year in China [4] - The accident may impact approximately 5.6% of the industry's caprolactam supply [4] - Major producers include Luxi Chemical (650,000 tons/year), Hualu Hengsheng (400,000 tons/year), and Hengyi Petrochemical (225,000 tons/year) [4]

Group 1: PEEK Material Overview - PEEK is a high-performance plastic known for its strength, lightweight, and resistance to high temperatures and chemicals, making it suitable for various applications, including surgical instruments and automotive gears [1][5] - PEEK can reduce the weight of humanoid robots by approximately 40% compared to metal materials, enhancing flexibility and performance [5] - The use of PEEK in robot joints and components ensures stable transmission and support, with self-lubricating properties that reduce friction [5] Group 2: MXD6 Material Overview - MXD6 is a high-performance nylon material that offers similar properties to PEEK but at a significantly lower cost, being approximately one-third the price of PEEK [6] - MXD6 has a strength 2-3 times that of regular nylon and exhibits low water absorption, making it suitable for various applications, including automotive and humanoid robots [6] - The market for MXD6 is projected to grow from $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [7] Group 3: Industry Key Players - Major global suppliers of MXD6 include Mitsubishi Gas Chemical and Solvay, with domestic companies beginning to break through technical barriers [8] - Qicai Chemical is a leading domestic player that has successfully developed MXDA, a core component for MXD6, reducing reliance on imports [9] - China National Chemical Engineering has played a significant role in optimizing the production process for MXDA, enhancing the overall efficiency and purity of the material [10]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand in China shows strong resilience, and there are promising opportunities for packaging upgrades under the new consumption trend [3] Group 1: Domestic Consumption Trends - In April 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a 0.8 percentage point decrease in growth rate compared to March [3] - From January to April, the total retail sales amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Packaging Market Insights - The global high-barrier packaging film market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with significant market potential for materials like PVDC, EVOH, and MXD6 [4] - The high-barrier packaging film market is projected to reach 80.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.99% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Group 3: Material Market Dynamics - PVDC sales are expected to reach 1.376 billion USD in 2024, with projections of 1.62 billion USD by 2031 [4] - The EVOH resin market for packaging films is anticipated to reach 1.51 billion USD by 2030 [4] - MXD6 exhibits excellent gas barrier performance and thermal stability, with high transparency and puncture resistance, maintaining its barrier performance even under increased humidity [4] Group 4: Domestic Production Developments - Currently, MXD6 production is mainly dominated by foreign companies, with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical having a capacity of 19,000 tons/year and Solvay 8,000 tons/year [5] - Domestic companies like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are making significant advancements in MXD6 production technology, with Qicai Chemical's 5,000 tons/year MXD6 project entering trial production in September 2024 [5] - The gradual advancement of domestic alternatives is expected to lead to a further decline in MXD6 prices and an increase in market share [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand in China shows strong resilience, and the report is optimistic about the opportunities arising from packaging upgrades under new consumption trends. In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared to March. From January to April, the total retail sales amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The global high-barrier packaging film market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with significant market potential for barrier materials such as PVDC, EVOH, and MXD6. The market for high-barrier packaging films is projected to reach 80.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.99% from 2024 to 2030 [2][4] - MXD6 is currently dominated by foreign companies, but domestic firms are expected to break through technical barriers and increase production. Companies like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are making significant advancements in MXD6 production technology, with Qicai Chemical's 5,000 tons/year MXD6 project entering trial production in September 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing upgrade in product packaging driven by the trends of lightweight and high-performance materials, particularly in the food, pharmaceutical, and fine chemical sectors [1] 2. Market Size and Growth - The global high-barrier packaging film market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 80.59 billion yuan in 2024 and 107.97 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2] 3. Domestic Production and Competition - Domestic production of MXD6 is set to increase as companies overcome technical barriers, with notable projects underway that will enhance local supply and potentially lower prices [3]

Group 1: Fund Market Insights - Financial and real estate themed funds continue to show strong performance with a net value increase of 1.45%, while defense and military funds experienced a slight decline [3] - The domestic new fund market is recovering with 24 new funds established and 34 new funds issued [3] - Different investment range ETFs experienced net outflows, with large-cap broad-based ETFs being the main direction of outflow, totaling -12.89 billion [3] Group 2: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - Oil demand is expected to rebound, driven by positive demand expectations following the suspension of tariff increases in the Sino-US Geneva trade talks [4] - As of May 16, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.33 and $61.93 per barrel, reflecting increases of 2.3% and 1.4% respectively from the previous week [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the "three major oil companies" and their associated oil service enterprises amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4] Group 3: Basic Chemical Industry - Recent policies have been introduced to support the development of the low-altitude economy, with a projected market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [5] Group 4: Retail Sector Performance - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, slightly below market expectations [8] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 25.3% in April, driven by a low base and high demand for investment and preservation of value [8] - Categories such as sports and entertainment, home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment maintained double-digit growth rates [8] Group 5: New City Holdings - In April 2025, the company reported rental income of 1.06 billion yuan, with a cumulative rental income of 4.28 billion yuan for the first four months [9] - The total number of leased properties as of April 2025 was 174, with a total construction area of approximately 16.044 million square meters [9] - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 1.76 billion yuan in April, representing a year-on-year decline of 52.5%, with a cumulative contract sales amount of 6.86 billion yuan for the first four months, down 56.2% year-on-year [9]