Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy sector. Additionally, major companies such as Mitsui Chemicals are consolidating their ethylene businesses, which may enhance operational efficiencies [1][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 7th in overall performance for the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a gain of 4.23%. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [3][20]. Key Industry Trends - The report notes a continued divergence in the chemical industry’s prosperity, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5]. Synthetic Biology - The report emphasizes the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies are expected to face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that leverage green energy and scale advantages are likely to thrive [5]. Refrigerants - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle. The supply of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [6]. Electronic Specialty Gases - The electronic specialty gas market is characterized by high technical barriers and value addition. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [7][8]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is highlighted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is expected to enhance production efficiency and align with global carbon neutrality goals [8]. COC Polymers - The report discusses the accelerated industrialization of COC/COP materials in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the increasing demand from downstream industries [9]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, alleviating inventory pressures. The report suggests that the market is entering a destocking phase, which could lead to price stabilization [10]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with major players controlling over 90% of global capacity. Despite current price pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive as demand recovers [11].

（2）配额政策落地在即，三代制冷剂有望进入高景气周期。24年起三代制冷剂供给进入"定额+持续削 减"阶段，同时二代制冷剂加速削减，四代制冷剂因为专利问题价格居高不下难以形成替代，制冷剂供 给端持续缩减。同时随着热泵、冷链市场发展以及空调存量市场持续扩张，叠加东南亚国家制冷剂需求 扩张等因素，需求端保持稳定增长。未来制冷剂市场供需缺口将会持续扩大，制冷剂价格稳定上涨，拥 有较高配额占比的公司将充分受益。相关公司：巨化股份、三美股份、昊华科技、永和股份等相关公 司。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第5 位，涨跌幅为2.58%，走势处于市场整体上游。上证综指涨跌幅为0.03%，创业板指涨跌幅为-2.26%， 申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.55个百分点，跑赢创业板指4.83个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 本周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第5位，涨跌幅为2.58%，走势处于市场整 体上游。上证综指涨跌幅为0.03%，创业板指涨跌幅为-2.26%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2. ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th this week (2025/12/01-2025/12/05) with a fluctuation of 0.13%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, which had fluctuations of 0.37% and 1.86% respectively [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - Companies to watch in the synthetic biology field include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is set to be implemented, leading to a high prosperity cycle for this segment [2] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to decrease due to the "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [2] - Companies benefiting from this trend include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [3] - The domestic market faces a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [3] - Key players in this sector include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [3] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is notable, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [4] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are favored for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [4] - Companies to focus on in this area include Satellite Chemical [4] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies overcoming previous R&D challenges [5] - The demand for COC/COP is increasing in various applications, including mobile camera lenses and medical packaging, with a strong push for domestic alternatives due to supply chain security concerns [5] - Acelor is a notable company in the COC polymer production segment [5] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints from major producers like Canpotex and Nutrien [6] - The demand for potash is anticipated to rise due to increased planting intentions among farmers, driven by higher grain prices [6] - Key companies in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Zangge Mining, and Dongfang Iron Tower [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [7] - The market is currently experiencing price stabilization at low levels, but profitability remains strong, with future supply dynamics expected to improve [7] - Wanhu Chemical is a key player to watch in the polyurethane sector [7] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included liquid chlorine (21.43%), butadiene (10.29%), and nitric acid (8.33%) [8] - The top five price decreases included trichloroethylene (-10.64%) and phenol (-6.17%) [8] Supply Side Tracking - This week, 166 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with five new repairs and five restarts [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector overall experienced a decline of 7.47% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, ranking 29th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.57 percentage points [4][22] - The report highlights a continued trend of divergence in the chemical industry for 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance was notably poor, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.90% and the ChiNext Index by 6.15% during the same period [4][22] - The report indicates that the chemical sub-sectors showed varied performance, with the least decline in refining chemicals (-0.58%) and the most significant decline in fluorinated chemicals (-11.00%) [23] Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming quota policies for refrigerants, which are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle starting in 2024, with a continuous reduction in supply for second-generation refrigerants [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is identified as a global movement, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to enhance the valuation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is experiencing accelerated domestic industrialization, driven by the shift of downstream industries to domestic production and the need for supply chain security [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a potential recovery in prices [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [10] Core Insights - The petrochemical sector is nearing a bottom in its economic cycle, with signs of profitability differentiation emerging in Q3 2025. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality growth, growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high dividend sectors [2][7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the petrochemical sector and its seven sub-sectors showed varied year-on-year growth rates: Petrochemicals (-0.06%), Oil and Gas Services and Equipment (+48.77%), Energy Extraction (-8.37%), Oil and Gas Storage and Sales (+45.24%), Traditional Refining (+9.76%), Private Refining (+340.96%), Coal Chemical & Gasification (+43.01%), and Downstream Processing (-51.88%) [2][6] Oil Price Trends - The average Brent crude oil price in Q3 2025 was $68.17 per barrel, down 13.40% year-on-year but up 2.18% quarter-on-quarter. The report outlines a V-shaped trend in oil prices throughout the year, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors [17][20] Sub-sector Analysis - The report highlights that while the overall industry faced revenue and profit declines due to falling oil prices, certain sub-sectors like coal chemical and gasification, as well as oil and gas services, experienced positive growth. The private refining sector showed remarkable growth due to cost advantages [29][46] Investment Focus - Key investment themes include: 1. Gradual recovery in the industry with leading companies experiencing volume and price increases 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution 3. Equipment investments driven by a new cycle in coal chemical investments 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises as they undergo value reassessment [7][8] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on high-quality growth stocks such as Satellite Chemical, coal chemical leader Baofeng Energy, and high-growth private oil and gas producers like Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas. It also highlights companies involved in high-end material import substitution and those benefiting from the coal chemical capacity cycle [8][46]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week, with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated growth in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -0.95%, ranking it 17th among all sectors, while the top three performing sectors were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [22][23] - The top three individual stocks in the chemical sector this week were Bluefeng Biochemical (61.16%), Shangwei New Materials (44.81%), and Huarsoft Technology (31.83%) [28] Key Industry Dynamics - A new plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry was released by seven departments, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [34] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, digital empowerment, and environmental sustainability in the petrochemical sector [34] Investment Opportunities - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological being recommended for investment [4][8] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to upcoming quota policies and stable demand growth from the air conditioning and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to enhance the value of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with companies like AkzoNobel being recommended for attention [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as supply tightens and demand increases due to rising agricultural planting intentions [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week (2025/08/25-2025/08/29) with a fluctuation of 1.11%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index saw a fluctuation of 7.74%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 6.63 percentage points [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that utilize green energy alternatives and scale advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [2]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will see accelerated reductions. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with a high quota share in refrigerants are likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand gap. Relevant companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [3][4]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core aspect of domestic industrial chain localization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, leading to a mismatch between the demand for high-end electronic specialty gases and the insufficient domestic production capacity. Companies that can establish high-end production capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are expected to gain a competitive edge. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [4][5]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals are also aligned with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. The leading companies in this sector are expected to see their valuations reassessed positively [5]. COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of research. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic production has heightened the urgency for local alternatives. The market for COC/COP remains constrained by supply-side bottlenecks, but domestic companies are poised to break through and expand market opportunities. Notable companies include Akerley [6]. MDI Market Dynamics - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with demand remaining stable due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among eight manufacturers, with five major companies accounting for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, and the supply landscape is likely to improve as demand recovers. Key companies to monitor include Wanhua Chemical [9]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (11.08%), bisphenol A (2.99%), PX (2.86%), refrigerant R32 (2.56%), and butadiene (2.08%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-25.86%), urea (-3.45%), TDI (-3.33%), toluene (-3.18%), and pure benzene (-2.70%) [10]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 153 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with six new maintenance activities and four restarts noted [11].

Group 1 - Global TDI supply is tightening due to significant production disruptions, including a complete shutdown of a 150,000-ton facility by South Korea's Hanwha Chemical due to heat exchanger leaks, resulting in a cumulative reduction of approximately 15% in global capacity this year [1] - The current valuation of the basic chemical industry is at a low level since 2014, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1] - Investment recommendations include focusing on three main themes: opportunities in the western development initiative, cyclical elasticity opportunities due to increased supply-side disruptions, and acceleration of domestic substitution in new materials [1] Group 2 - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has shown a slight increase of 0.35%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Salt Lake Co. (up 4.00%) and Saint Quan Group (up 2.04%) [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 43.54% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co. [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "capacity governance" and "technological innovation" in driving economic growth and addressing challenges in China's economy [4] - The meeting highlighted that while the economy shows resilience and progress, it still faces significant risks and challenges [4] - The focus is on deepening reforms and fostering new competitive industries through technological innovation and integration with industrial innovation [4] Group 2 - A new round of supply-side reforms is emerging, benefiting leading companies in the chemical sub-industry as old capacities are phased out [5] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization and profit margins, with a utilization rate of only 71.9% and a profit margin of 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [5][6] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry has passed, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure, which is expected to improve industry conditions [6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is crucial for the country's future development, with a focus on "domestic substitution" in materials [7] - The industry has made significant progress in overcoming technological barriers set by foreign manufacturers, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-performance new materials [7] - The emphasis is on investing resources in critical materials that have not yet achieved domestic production to ensure safety and self-sufficiency [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the localization of "choke point" materials to enhance supply chain security and reduce production costs in rapidly expanding sectors like semiconductors, OLED, AR/VR, and humanoid robots [2]. Group 1: Domestic Substitution and Material Localization - The concept of "domestic substitution" has gained attention as China's chemical industry improves its production technology, breaking through overseas technical barriers [2]. - Achieving breakthroughs in "choke point" materials and the localization of equipment and processes is essential for "safe development" [2]. - Enhancing the self-supply capability of upstream materials in industries like semiconductors can improve overall supply chain security [2]. Group 2: COC/COP Materials - COC/COP, a high-end optical material, is recognized for its excellent properties such as high thermal deformation temperature, high transparency, low birefringence, and low dielectric constant [3]. - Currently, the production capacity of COC/COP is mainly held by Japanese manufacturers, but domestic companies are beginning to establish a foundation for industrialization [3]. - Akolai's COC production line has entered trial production in Q3 2024, with plans for a 30,000-ton optical materials project in Hubei [3]. Group 3: PSPI Development - PSPI serves dual functions as both a photoresist and dielectric insulation layer, with applications in integrated circuits, MEMS, and OLEDs [4]. - Domestic companies like Aolide and Dinglong have made breakthroughs in the localization of PSPI, indicating a promising increase in domestic supply [4]. Group 4: Semiconductor Market Outlook - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 19.7% [5]. - The Asia-Pacific region's semiconductor sales are expected to be around $340.79 billion, with a growth rate of 17.5% [5]. - The steady growth of the semiconductor market is anticipated to drive an increase in demand for semiconductor materials, including photoresists and electronic specialty gases [6].