Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber prices for full latex dropped to 16,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices fell to 15,350 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.296 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons, or 1.2% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China increased to 864,000 tons, up by 1.4%, with specific increases in Qingdao and Yunnan [4] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the market has not been accompanied by significant changes in the fundamentals, with market expectations driving the price fluctuations of RU and NR [5] - Looking ahead, there is optimism regarding tire demand this year, suggesting potential upward price movement for RU and NR, although the timing of demand recovery remains uncertain [5] - With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, which will last for 10 days, market expectations are unstable, leading to anticipated volatility on the first trading day after the holiday [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a 2.5 percentage point increase in operating rates to 92.0%, while the Asian industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 83.7%, indicating a generally ample supply [30] - The PTA industry experienced a 2.8 percentage point decrease in operating rates to 74.8%, reaching a historical low for this time of year, with expectations of continued low supply levels due to maintenance schedules [32] - The EG market is facing increased supply with a 0.6 percentage point rise in operating rates to 76.8%, but demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential inventory pressures in February [34] Group 4 - The bottle-grade PET industry is experiencing a supply contraction, with operating rates remaining stable at 66.1%, and ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [39] - The soda ash market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with production increasing to 792,000 tons, but demand is softening, leading to a bearish market sentiment [40] - The glass market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with inventory levels rising and production decreasing, indicating a potential for price stabilization [41]

（李思进 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0021407，仅供参考） PTA： 供需面供稳需减。PTA 行业负荷环比持平至 76.6%，处于历年同期偏低水平，鉴于一季度检修计划较多，预计供应将趋于收紧。需求端，终端新订单整体偏 弱，江浙地区终端工厂开工率持续下滑。聚酯行业负荷环比减少 2.0pct 至 84.2%，预计行业开工将加速下滑。综合来看，当前 TA-聚酯环节基本面尚有支 撑，PTA 现货基差走弱的持续性将受到聚酯减产的考验，同时终端需求走弱也将形成压制，一季度产业链面临累库压力。短期内，成本端支撑减弱，TA 5 月期价预计震荡偏弱运行，中线投资者等待回调至支撑区域 5100-5200 做多。需警惕霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁可能引发的油价冲高风险。 （李思进 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0021407，仅供参考） EG： 供需面供增需减。国内方面，乙二醇行业负荷环比增加 1.2pct 至 74.3%，其中，合成气制负荷环比增加 1.6pct至 81.0%，处于历年同期高位，当前价格尚不 足以引发大规模减产。虽然北美及中东装置检修可能削减一季度进口，但由于近期乙二醇价格重心上移，吸引了部分中国台湾等地货源，加之国内供应充 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil price increase has widened, and it has been in a strong and volatile stalemate during the Asian session. The escalation of geopolitical risks in Iran continues to support the upward movement of oil prices. The US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries doing business with Iran, and Trump may authorize new military strikes against Iran [2]. - The PXN was at $338/ton (a month-on-month change of -$1.25/ton). After the recent significant improvement in PX profitability, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased their operations. The PXN has retreated due to weakening fundamentals, but the medium - term outlook remains positive, and the short - term decline in polyester operation rate is limited [2]. - The spot basis of the TA main contract was -70 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 350 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +23 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 331 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -7 yuan/ton). The short - term decline in polyester is limited, and the inventory accumulation pressure in January is not significant. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve further [2]. - The polyester operation rate was 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The weaving load continued to decline, domestic orders weakened after the end of November, and坯布 inventory began to accumulate. The polyester load will decline to around 88% in January [3]. - The spot production profit of PF was -25 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -35 yuan/ton). The demand is weak, and the processing difference is maintained in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival maintenance plan has been announced, but the maintenance intensity is limited [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR was 563 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +26 yuan/ton). The processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][12][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operation rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate, and filament profit [48][50][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][78][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][91][93] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for hedging, and pay attention to the impact of the Iran situation on crude oil prices. Although there are expectations of increased supply and demand - side maintenance plans, the decline in polyester load is limited, and the medium - term outlook for PX remains positive [4]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided. - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

化工日报 | 2025-09-25 地缘升温，PTA跟随成本减仓反弹 市场要闻与数据 1、隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度 变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整 后再度反弹。 2、终端订单有所好转，节前备货及原料价格反弹下长丝产销好转，江浙涤丝昨日产销部分放量，至下午3点半附 近平均产销估算在7-8成 市场分析 成本端，近期油价震荡运行，关注俄乌动态。隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石 油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险 升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整后再度反弹。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN206美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX四季度供需面转弱，PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好，国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后， 新装 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it gives a neutral rating with a mid - term cautious and bearish outlook for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly during the peak season. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating, and the PX supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the demand side of the polyester industry has limited improvement and high inventory [1][2][4]. - The demand for PF has slightly improved, and short - term supply and demand conditions are better than the raw material side, but its upward momentum is weak. The processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 79 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 5 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 159 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 304 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main - contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main - contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 212 dollars/ton (with a环比 change of - 6.88 dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][18][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas start - up will further increase in the short term. China's PTA load is rising from a low level. Relevant figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [1][29][36]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [2][37][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a环比 change of - 0.2%), and it is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. Relevant figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [2][49][65]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 230 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 21 yuan/ton), and the load is slightly increasing. Relevant figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [3][76][89]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 497 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 23 yuan/ton). Relevant figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [3][91][104]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and cautiously bearish in the medium term [4]. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5]. - Cross - period: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The postponement of the maintenance of two PX units has narrowed the de - stocking range of PX in the fourth quarter, weakening the previous de - stocking support. Coupled with more PTA maintenance plans, PX prices have fallen and PTA processing fees have widened [1] - The recent oil price has been oscillating, and the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored. The PX load in China has gradually recovered, and the PX balance sheet in September has changed from de - stocking to a loose balance. However, PX is still in a low - inventory state [1] - The PTA load is rising from a low level. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals are okay, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning expectations. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase is restricted [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase in September [2] - The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing margin has widened. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is still large supply - demand pressure under the new device commissioning [3] - For the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices in cross - variety trading, and there is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - The report presents PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][45] Downstream Polyester Load - The report shows the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][62] PF Detailed Data - The report presents the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and the available inventory days in pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][73][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [91][93][101]