"如果有什么东西出现了短缺，人类的历史证明它最终会被大规模复制，直到变成过剩——AI芯片和算力也不会例外。" 在最新的The a16z Show特别节目中，a16z联合创始人、硅谷风投教父Marc Andreessen（马克·安德森）就人工智能的未来格局、中美技术竞赛以及资本市场 最关心的回报问题进行了深度拆解。作为经历了互联网周期的资深投资人，安德森直言： "（AI）这是我有生以来经历的最大规模的技术革命……不仅比互联 网大，其量级堪比电力和微处理器。" 要点提炼： AI技术量级： AI是比互联网更宏大的技术变革，可与电力、微处理器和蒸汽机相提并论，目前仍处于"非常早期"阶段。 成本"通缩"： 智能的单位成本（Per unit cost）下降速度远超摩尔定律，这将带来需求的爆发性增长。 "短缺导致过剩"： 遵循"短缺导致过剩"的历史规律，GPU和数据中心的大规模建设最终将导致供应过剩，从而进一步压低AI成本。 市场结构： 未来AI市场将类似计算机产业结构：少数"上帝级模型"（类似超级计算机）在顶端，海量低成本"小模型"在边缘侧普及。 中美竞争： 这是一个双雄争霸的局面。中国（如DeepSeek、Kimi）在 ...

编辑 | 硬 AI 要点提炼： "如果有什么东西出现了短缺，人类的历史证明它最终会被大规模复制，直到变成过剩——AI芯片和算力也不会例外。"a16z联合创始人预言，AI是比互联网更宏大的技术变革，目前 尚处于早期阶段。他指出，智能成本正以超摩尔定律的速度崩塌，基础设施的短缺终将导致产能过剩，从而利好应用层。 作者 | 硬 AI 成本"通缩" ： 智能的单位成本（Per unit cost）下降速度远超摩尔定律，这将带来需求的爆发性增长。 "短缺导致过剩" ： 遵循"短缺导致过剩"的历史规律，GPU和数据中心的大规模建设最终将导致供应过剩，从而进一步压低AI成本。 市场结构 ： 未来AI市场将类似计算机产业结构：少数"上帝级模型"（类似超级计算机）在顶端，海量低成本"小模型"在边缘侧普及。 中美竞争 ： 这是一个双雄争霸的局面。中国（如DeepSeek、Kimi）在追赶速度、开源策略和芯片自研上表现惊人，这促使美国联邦层面的监管风向转为支持创 新。他说道，"基本上AI只在美国和中国被构建。世界其他地方要么造不出来，要么不想造"。 商业模式 ： AI应用正从"按Token付费"向"基于价值定价"转移；初创公司不再 ...

Core Insights - The discussion emphasizes that the current AI revolution is unprecedented in scale, comparable to electricity and microprocessors, and is still in its early stages [4][6][12] - The rapid decline in AI costs, described as "hyper deflation," is expected to drive explosive demand growth [4][6][35] - Historical patterns suggest that shortages in AI infrastructure, such as GPUs, will lead to oversupply and further cost reductions in the future [4][6][35] AI Technology Landscape - AI is viewed as a transformative technology that surpasses the internet in magnitude, with its current phase being very early [6][12] - The cost of AI is decreasing at a rate faster than Moore's Law, leading to significant demand growth [6][35] - The future AI market structure will resemble the computer industry, with a few "god-tier models" at the top and numerous low-cost "small models" at the periphery [6][10] US-China Competition - The emergence of Chinese models like DeepSeek and Kimi has surprised both Washington and Silicon Valley, indicating significant progress in open-source models from China [5][7][52] - The competition is characterized as a dual hegemony, with both the US and China being the primary players in AI development [5][7][51] Business Models and Pricing - A shift from "pay-per-token" to "value-based pricing" is occurring in AI applications, allowing companies to capture more value from productivity gains [9][34] - AI startups are moving beyond being mere wrappers around large models and are integrating their own models, enhancing their competitive edge [9][34] AI Democratization - Advanced AI technologies are becoming accessible to the public, breaking down barriers and allowing widespread use [6][21] - Despite public fears about AI replacing jobs, actual behavior shows a rapid adoption of AI technologies [6][21] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is shifting, with a reduced risk of federal-level restrictions on AI, as there is bipartisan support for innovation [7][59] - State-level regulations are emerging, leading to a fragmented legal environment that could hinder progress [59][60] AI Chip Development - The AI chip market is expected to see significant investment and innovation, with a potential oversupply in the coming years as companies ramp up production [4][45] - The competition in chip development is intensifying, with both established companies and startups entering the market [45][49]

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技 术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：工具过载的2026，只会提问已远不够。从"氛围编程"到全能代理，这份S级清单划出了生产力 真正的分水岭。文章来自编译。 以下是它们的各自优势所在： 在接下来的章节中，我将详细介绍它们在这些任务中脱颖而出的原因。 A 级：大多数人都应该使用的工具 学习利器：NotebookLM NotebookLM 是一款用 Gemini 技术驱动的 AI 研究工具，其核心优势在于能够基于你提供的文档进行工 作。你可以上传 PDF、Google 文档或会议记录，它会自动生成摘要、提供带有引用来源的解答，甚至 能将其转化成播客内容。 如果你打算学习一款新的 AI 工具，请务必从以下清单中选择。 在过去的三年里，我针对不同的任务测试了数十款 AI 工具。 它们当中有些表现惊艳，有些差强人意，还有一些已经退出了历史舞台。 以下是我发现的最出色的 AI 工具。我已按类别对其进行了整理，并划分为不同的等级。此外，我还为 大多数工具提供了学习指南。 S 级：全民必备的 AI 工具（至少选择其一） 毫无疑问，ChatGPT、Gem ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of AI-generated music, highlighting the viral success of the song "Skills Gobang" and its connection to AI music creation tools [2][4][8] Group 1: AI Music Creation - AI is significantly lowering the barriers to music creation, allowing non-professionals to produce songs easily [8][9] - Platforms like Suno and DeepSeek are enabling users to create high-quality music with minimal effort, transforming the music industry landscape [8][9] - The latest version of Suno offers studio-level sound quality, while Udio allows for style transfer in music production [8][9] Group 2: Viral Success and Cultural Impact - "Skills Gobang" became a cultural phenomenon, dominating social media and resonating with the youth's desire for shared experiences [2][4][15] - The song's catchy phrases and simple melodies make it suitable for short video formats, contributing to its viral nature [14][15] - The success of AI-generated songs like "Seven Days Lover" illustrates the potential for rapid content creation and commercialization in the music industry [11][14] Group 3: Controversies and Challenges - The rise of AI music has sparked debates about copyright and competition, with some traditional musicians expressing concerns over the legitimacy of AI-generated content [15] - Despite claims of proper licensing and rights, the controversy surrounding AI music creation continues to grow, affecting creators like Yang Ping [15] - The article emphasizes that the essence of music lies in emotional connection rather than just technical creation, highlighting the importance of human experience in music [15][16]

Core Insights - Suno has completed a $250 million Series C funding round, achieving a valuation of $2.45 billion, nearly five times higher than last year's $500 million valuation [1] - The company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) has reached $200 million, primarily from subscriptions, significantly up from the previously reported $150 million [1] - Nearly 100 million users have created music on Suno over the past two years, with many discovering their passion for music creation for the first time [1] Funding and Valuation - The Series C round was led by Menlo Ventures, with participation from Hallwood Media, Lightspeed, Matrix, and NVentures [1] - The valuation increase reflects strong market interest and growth potential in the music AI sector [1] User Engagement and Community - Suno aims to build an ecosystem involving creators, listeners, and the broader music community [2] - The platform has transformed users from listeners to creators, with many discovering Suno through community sharing [4] - The ease of creating music by simply inputting an idea has attracted users who had never engaged with musical instruments before [7] Target User Segments - Individual creators and music enthusiasts, including amateur musicians and content creators, utilize Suno for personalized songs or background music [5] - Professional content creators, such as video producers and independent artists, may opt for Pro or Premier plans for commercial use [5] - Businesses and commercial clients, including small enterprises and advertising agencies, are also significant users of Suno for generating custom music content [5] Product Development - Suno has launched Suno Studio, a professional-grade digital audio workstation (DAW) aimed at both semi-professionals and professionals, enhancing its appeal across user segments [7] - The product is designed to simplify the music creation process while incorporating AI features, catering to both casual and serious users [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the first CEO annual conference organized by Jinqiu Fund, themed "Experience with AI," focusing on the intersection of technology, capital, and creativity in the AI era [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference aims to explore not just AI itself but how technology, capital, and creativity can interact in the AI age [1]. - The event is designed to be a genuine space for understanding, utilizing, and experiencing AI [1]. Group 2: Music Generation with AI - Seven representative AI music generation products were evaluated, including Suno, ElevenLabs, and Udio, with Suno being selected for the conference music due to its high success rate [4][5][6]. - The music requirements included creating entrance music for guests based on their company and personal situations, as well as warm-up music suitable for the conference theme [7][8]. Group 3: Music Production Process - The production process involved using ChatGPT to generate prompts for music creation, which were then used with Suno to produce suitable music [10][12]. - Different styles of warm-up music were created based on the agenda and desired atmosphere, with 10-20 tracks prepared for each segment [20][21]. Group 4: AI Music Generation Insights - AI can generate melodies and mimic styles but lacks deep semantic understanding, making it challenging to create emotionally resonant music [26]. - The effectiveness of AI music generation heavily relies on the precision of prompts, which can be a challenge for those unfamiliar with music [27][28]. Group 5: Future Directions - The company plans to explore a more systematic and intelligent approach to music generation in the future, potentially integrating multiple AI models for different styles [30]. - There is an aspiration to create a conference theme song that meets the satisfaction of all team members and to experiment with real-time emotional feedback for music generation [30].

Core Insights - The article discusses an upcoming CEO conference organized by JinQiu Fund, focusing on AI innovation and collaboration among entrepreneurs in the AI sector [1][2]. Event Overview - The conference is scheduled for November 1, featuring 100 CEOs from the AI industry, emphasizing a gathering of founders as the main focus [1]. - The event aims to foster direct engagement among entrepreneurs, allowing them to share insights and experiences without external authoritative figures [1]. Concept of AI Evolution - AI has transitioned from mimicking human data to actively experiencing the world through sensors and feedback, marking a shift to an "experience era" [6]. - In this new era, both AI and entrepreneurs are seen as dynamic entities that continuously learn and adapt through interaction with the environment [6]. Conference Activities - The event will include a roundtable discussion titled "Ask me anything," where investors will engage with founders based on their unique experiences [8]. - A "Long Table" discussion will facilitate open dialogue about future predictions, encouraging participation from all attendees [8]. - An evening party will provide a platform for entrepreneurs to connect and share their stories in a more relaxed setting [9]. Product Launches and Presentations - The conference will feature product launches from various AI companies, showcasing innovations across different AI applications [11][15]. - Key presentations will include insights from JinQiu Fund's partners on technology innovation and investment practices for 2025 [11]. Collaboration and Support - The event is supported by various AI tool partners and technology companies, highlighting the collaborative effort in organizing the conference [22]. - The conference aims to create a personalized experience for attendees, including customized AI representations and gift bags [16]. Previous Engagements - JinQiu Fund previously engaged with numerous leading tech companies during a CES trip, establishing a foundation for ongoing dialogue with innovators in the AI space [19][21].

Core Insights - The driving force behind the AI revolution is not genius but rather human laziness, as tools that require less effort and thought will ultimately prevail [1][2][6] - AI's diffusion is characterized by a "lazy economics" where products that allow people to do less while earning more will be adopted more quickly [6][12] Group 1: AI Diffusion and Economic Impact - AI investment can be categorized into three areas: obvious AI tracks like chatbots and productivity tools, new platforms emerging in the AI era, and opportunities outside Silicon Valley's traditional focus, such as drug discovery [4][20] - The combination of multiple models, including language models for logic and text and diffusion models for images and videos, creates a comprehensive AI ecosystem [4][12] - The shift from "hard work" to "smart laziness" signifies a change in competitive advantage, where efficiency is achieved through reduced repetitive tasks [6][12] Group 2: AI in Professional Fields - In the medical field, AI will not replace doctors but will require them to be re-educated, shifting their role from knowledge retainers to critical thinkers who can question AI outputs [7][9] - The ability to critically assess AI-generated results is more crucial than experience, as studies show that those who actively engage with AI data achieve better outcomes [11][12] - Similar transformations are occurring in other professions, such as law and programming, where the focus is on identifying AI's limitations rather than merely executing tasks [12][13] Group 3: Social Networks and AI - LinkedIn's longevity is attributed to its efficiency-focused model, which contrasts with other social networks that prioritize engagement over productivity [16][18] - The platform's success lies in its ability to create value-based connections, making it a trusted network that is difficult to replicate [18][20] - AI's potential to disrupt LinkedIn exists, but its unique network effects and trust-based structure provide resilience against such changes [18][20] Group 4: Human-AI Relationship - The relationship between humans and AI is fundamentally one-sided, as AI can simulate understanding but lacks the capacity for mutual growth [22][26] - Concerns arise about the diminishing human empathy as interactions with AI increase, emphasizing the need for a clear definition of relationships [22][26] - The evolution of AI prompts a reevaluation of human identity and purpose, as reliance on AI for decision-making may lead to a loss of autonomy [15][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing personal taste and skills through deliberate practice before heavily relying on AI tools for creative work. It argues that while AI can assist in the creative process, true expertise and unique perspectives come from extensive hands-on experience and understanding of one's craft [2][34][36]. Group 1: AI and Creative Process - AI can be a powerful tool for generating content, but it should not replace the foundational skills and personal insights that come from manual practice [34][36]. - The author uses AI to assist in writing, with AI contributions varying from 0% to 40% depending on the type of content, highlighting that core ideas and insights must come from the individual [3][4][5]. - The process of selecting and refining AI-generated content is crucial and relies on the individual's judgment and taste, which cannot be replaced by AI [11][12][17]. Group 2: Importance of Deliberate Practice - The article advocates for at least 1000 hours of deliberate practice in one's field to build foundational skills and personal taste, which are essential for effective use of AI [25][35]. - This practice should be largely independent of AI to ensure that the individual develops a deep understanding of their craft [26][30]. - The author draws parallels to the "10,000-hour rule," suggesting that while AI can accelerate learning, the hands-on experience remains irreplaceable [24][35]. Group 3: The Role of Personal Taste - Personal taste is described as a critical component of creative work, which is developed through extensive exposure to quality content and hands-on practice [18][22][29]. - The article warns against the risk of relying too heavily on AI, which may lead to a decline in personal standards and creativity [20][36]. - Ultimately, the ability to leverage AI effectively hinges on having a unique perspective and understanding of what constitutes quality work [36][40].