Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main reason for the recent weakness in the bond market is that the central bank's open - market operations and external expectation management since November have been overall prudent and did not match the market's high expectations. The concerns about policy tone adjustment and “short - term tightening and long - term easing” are more of an emotional interpretation. [1][3] - The bond market is currently facing potential pressures from inflation improvement and the mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - Suggestions for responding to the market situation include staying on the sidelines in the near term and paying attention to short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Reasons for the Decline - **Monetary Policy Factor**: The market's expectations for monetary policy were not met. After the central bank restarted treasury bond trading in late October, the follow - up policy guidance and actual open - market operations were restrained. The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - November did not echo the over - heated policy expectations. Near the end of the year, discussions about policy setting and the description of “short - term tightening and long - term easing” in the media also affected the bond market. [1][2][3] - **Institutional Behavior Factor**: Concerns about public fund redemption rules and banks selling old bonds are institutional behavior disturbances. The suspension of five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit by large banks and the adjustment of medium - and long - term time deposits by small and medium - sized banks led to a decline in the duration of the liability side and weakened the demand of the allocation disk. The central bank's investigation into banks' selling of old bonds also affected the market. [6] - **Potential Risk Factor**: The bond market is facing inflation pressure from statistical improvement and the strong performance of commodities, as well as the problem of the increasing mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term government bonds. [8] Response Measures - **Stay on the Sidelines**: Pay attention to the tone of the year - end meetings and the central bank's statements to observe the bottom of the recent decline. Wait for the central bank's supportive statements to avoid the potential systemic risk of concentrated redemptions caused by the over - decline of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - **Focus on Opportunities**: Focus on short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. Short - and medium - term varieties have higher anti - decline attributes and allocation value. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [8] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating, taking a cautious approach" [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures are experiencing a strengthening of the technology - growth trend. The market sentiment is positive, and funds are flowing towards high - growth sectors. There is still room for price increases in the technology - growth sector, and it is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM contracts [7]. - For stock index options, there are two trading logics based on the volatility changes: partial profit - taking in the spot and switching to buying out - of - the - money call options, or buying put options for protection during the process of chasing the market. In the short - term, a double - selling strategy is recommended, and in the medium - term, the covered call strategy continues [2][8]. - Treasury bond futures are facing multiple disturbing factors. The market is pricing in potential risks from major meetings in advance. In the short - term, the bond market is affected by many factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to various strategies such as basis trading and curve trading [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher, with trading volume reaching 1.83 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is positive, and the focus is shifting to the technology - growth sector. The pharmaceutical and communication industries led the gains [7]. - **Logic**: The strong performance of the CXO leader's mid - year report and the technological catalysis of PCB are driving the technology - growth sector. Funds are flowing out of the "anti - involution" and dumbbell - shaped sectors, and there is still room for price increases in the technology - growth sector [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM contracts [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The underlying assets continued to be strong, with the GEM ETF rising by 1.75% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF rising by 1.35%. The trading volume of the STAR Market and ChiNext ETF options increased, but the overall market share is limited [8]. - **Logic**: The increase in weighted volatility mainly comes from the out - of - the - money put side, while the at - the - money and slightly out - of - the - money call volatility has declined, implying short - term market correction concerns. Two trading logics are derived [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, use the double - selling strategy; in the medium - term, continue the covered call strategy [2][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued large - scale net injections, but the bond market sentiment was weak [2][10]. - **Logic**: The market is pricing in potential risks from the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting in advance. The stock market and commodity market sentiment has improved, putting pressure on the bond market [2][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend trading, be cautious; for hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis trading, pay attention to the basis convergence of the TL main contract; for curve trading, it is more profitable to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US July ADP employment figures, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, China's July official manufacturing PMI, and the US July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - From January to June 2025, the number of newly established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 11.7% year - on - year, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 15.2% year - on - year. The manufacturing and service industries used 1090.6 billion yuan and 3058.7 billion yuan of foreign capital respectively [12]. - From January to June, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of June increased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self - media reports on the anti - involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are inconsistent with the facts [13]. - Due to heavy rainfall in Beijing, a national level - four disaster relief emergency response was launched. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged 200 million yuan of central budget - inner investment for post - disaster recovery [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring data of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, including contract basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary [7][8][10].

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On April 22, the yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 1.5bp and 2.5bp to 1.64% and 1.87% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.07%, 0.17%, and 0.50% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.70%. - Domestically, in March, both the manufacturing and service industry PMIs were in the expansion range and increased month - on - month, indicating marginal improvement in the economy. The unemployment rate improved month - on - month, but price data remained weak, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year and PPI down 2.5% year - on - year. Financial data slightly exceeded expectations, with government bonds supporting social financing, but the financing willingness of the private sector still needed to be boosted. With policy front - loading to boost domestic demand, economic data performed strongly, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeding expectations. - Overseas, the US PMI in March declined slightly, and non - farm payrolls growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. - In terms of strategy, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by tariff shocks has eased, and the focus of the bond market may return from short - term sentiment to domestic fundamental pressure. The need for stable growth supports the continued decline of the medium - and long - term interest rate center. The second quarter may be the window for monetary easing, and reserve requirement ratio cuts may take precedence over interest rate cuts. There is a greater divergence at the important interest rate level of 1.6% for the 10 - year bond. Under heavy selling pressure, bond futures fluctuated and declined, but still showed strength after the adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting at the end of the month releases incremental information. If the policy intensity fails to meet expectations, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate and stabilize in the range of 1.65% - 1.75% in the short term and then continue to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On April 22, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.970 (up 0.17%), 106.165 (up 0.07%), 102.402 (up 0.01%), and 119.920 (up 0.5%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 41,633 (down 2,124), 33,835 (down 348), 23,837 (down 492), and 79,801 (down 333) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 were 0.13 (up 0.01), 0.13 (down 0.02), 0.25 (up 0.02), and 0.21 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc., also showed certain changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 189,451 (up 4,438), 166,353 (up 1,274), 101,641 (down 1,350), and 110,368 (up 5,213) respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also changed to different extents [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220003.IB, 240025.IB, etc., showed upward trends on April 22 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds were 1.4400% (up 1.00bp), 1.4900% (up 1.20bp), 1.5250% (up 2.25bp), 1.6100% (up 1.75bp), and 1.6630% (up 1.55bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.5997% (down 0.03bp), the Shibor overnight rate was 1.7090% (down 0.70bp), etc. The LPR rates of 1y and 5y remained unchanged at 3.10% and 3.6% respectively [2]. - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 164.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days [2]. 3.4 Industry News - On April 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Comprehensive Pilot Program of Service Industry Opening - up". The pilot tasks will be implemented in all 11 pilot provinces and municipalities at once. Relevant work on cross - border trade and investment and financing facilitation will be carried out, the green finance policy toolkit will be optimized, etc. - On April 22, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council required central enterprises to take the initiative, strengthen fund planning, ensure timely payment, and support upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - April 22, 22:00, Eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary value - April 23, 21:45, US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value - April 24, 01:00, US initial jobless claims for the week ended April 19 (in ten thousand people) - April 25, 22:00, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [3]