This is the premier operating metric for investors to home in on after the closing bell.Over the past three years, nothing has garnered more attention on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with AI to make split-second decisions without the need for human oversight is a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity.While a long list of companies has benefited from the evolution of AI, Nvidia (NVDA 1.10%) currently finds itself atop the pedestal. It's added $4 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 小摩核心观点： 市场对 AI 资本支出见顶的担忧无需过度， 2026-2027 年增长确定性强 近一周，市场再度担忧 2026 年 AI 资本支出（以下简称 "AI capex"）或因当前支出规模高企而见顶，主要顾虑包 括：一是 AI 部署缺乏投资回报率（ROI），二是企业持续为 AI capex 提供资金的能力存疑。叠加英伟达 （NVDA）、超威半导体（AMD）对华 GPU 出货短期缺乏增长空间，投资者近期对 AI 板块态度趋于谨慎。 但摩根大通持不同观点，核心依据包括四点： 生成式 AI（Gen-AI）未现过热迹象： 头部 4 家云服务提供商（CSP）仍可通过增长的经营现金流支撑资本支 出，且有充足能力将增长的资本支出预算延续至 2027 年以后； 新增投资主体持续入场： 大型私人 AI 实验室（如 OpenAI、xAI、Anthropic）及主权基金纷纷加入，进一步推动 AI 投资； AI 应用场景大幅扩容： 消费级 AI 应用增长显著，而企业级 AI 虽进展较慢（推理模型落地仅 6 个月，尚处早期 阶段），但代币消耗量已实现强劲增长； （头部 4 家 CSP 2027 年资本支出情 ...

从产业一线视角解析 HVDC 投资机会 20250824 摘要 英伟达计划在 2027 年下半年推出全系标配 800 伏方案的 Ruben Ultra 产品，这将推动数据中心 HVDC 技术发展，并要求数据中心提前改造以 支持 800 伏输出，单机柜服务器功率将达到兆瓦级别。 当前市场上主要存在 48 伏供电架构和即将推广的 800 伏 HVDC 架构两 种方案。GB200、GB300 及 Vera Rubin 等服务器采用 48 伏 PSU， 而 Ruben Ultra 将采用 800 伏板载电源，无需传统 PSU。 台达在 OCP 大会上展示了 800 伏架构下的 ACDC 电源边柜方案，内置 ACDC 电源，输出正负 400 伏或 800 伏直流电压，适用于 HVAC 方案， Meta 计划在 2026 年采用类似方案。 HVAC 与 HVDC 产品的主要技术壁垒在于形态差异和布线方式，海外产 品需做成扁平形态以插入机架，并解决散热和电磁干扰问题，台达系公 司在此方面具备优势。 国内企业如巴拿马和中恒正在推进支持 800 伏输出的 AC-DC 电源，中 恒已推出 800 伏半导体能源方案，并在互联网大厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's trade tensions with China, particularly regarding AI technology, have led to new export restrictions impacting companies like Nvidia, yet Nvidia shows resilience and potential for continued success despite these challenges [1][2][3]. Impact of Trade Restrictions - Nvidia faced a $4.5 billion write-off due to unsold AI chips that could not be sold to China as a result of new export restrictions [5]. - China accounted for $5.5 billion of Nvidia's $44.1 billion revenue in Q1, with an additional $2.5 billion in AI products barred from shipping [6]. Nvidia's Business Resilience - Despite the challenges, Nvidia reported a 69% year-over-year growth in Q1 revenue, totaling $44.1 billion [8]. - Nvidia's stock has increased nearly 30% in 2025, reaching a 52-week high of $172.40, contributing to the company becoming the first to achieve a $4 trillion market cap [9]. Future Prospects - Nvidia plans to resume selling AI chips to China, with the U.S. government assuring that licenses will be granted [10]. - The company projects $45 billion in revenue for fiscal Q2, a significant increase from the previous year's $30 billion [10]. Market Position and Innovations - The U.S. remains Nvidia's largest revenue source, contributing $20.7 billion of Q1's total revenue [11]. - Upcoming technology, such as the Vera Rubin superchip, is expected to enhance Nvidia's position in the AI market [11]. - The AI market is forecasted to grow from $244 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2031, indicating strong demand for Nvidia's products [13]. Investment Potential - Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 55, lower than competitor Advanced Micro Devices's 114, suggesting favorable long-term investment potential [14].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corp. is optimistic about resuming sales of H20 AI chips to China, which could significantly impact its revenue and stock price [1][8]. Sales and Revenue Impact - NVIDIA lost $2.5 billion in revenues in China in Q1 fiscal 2026 and anticipates an $8 billion revenue loss from China in Q2 fiscal 2026 [3]. - The resumption of sales in China could potentially bring back $10 to $20 billion in revenues for the remainder of fiscal 2026, translating to an EPS increase of 25 to 50 cents [4][21]. Stock Performance - NVIDIA's stock price increased by 4% following the announcement regarding H20 chip sales to China [1][8]. - The stock has surged nearly 97% since its recent low in early April, with a year-over-year gain of over 26% [5]. Innovation and Product Development - NVIDIA is committed to innovation, with plans to unveil Blackwell Ultra in the second half of 2025 and begin shipping Vera Rubin in 2026 [9]. - The company is shifting focus towards reasoning AI models, which require significantly more compute power, presenting new growth opportunities [11][12]. Automotive Sector Growth - NVIDIA's automotive revenue jumped 72% year-over-year to $567 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, with expectations to exceed $5 billion in fiscal 2026 [14]. - The company is actively involved in providing AI solutions for advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous vehicles, partnering with major automotive brands [15][16]. Financial Metrics - NVIDIA has an expected revenue growth rate of 51.4% and an earnings growth rate of 41.8% for the current year [17]. - The company boasts a return on equity (ROE) of 105.1%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ROE of 17% [19].

Core Viewpoint - A billionaire investor, Chase Coleman, is increasing his stake in Nvidia, contrasting with the trend of other billionaire investors who are selling their shares in the company [1][3][14]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is a leading player in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, with its market capitalization increasing by over $3 trillion in less than two years [2]. - The company holds a monopoly-like position in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market for high-compute data centers, with strong demand for its Hopper and Blackwell GPUs [9]. - Nvidia's gross margin has exceeded 70% due to the scarcity of AI-GPUs, allowing the company to charge a significant premium for its products [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Factors Influencing Stake Increase - Chase Coleman's investment strategy focuses on growth stocks and innovative trends, making Nvidia's AI advancements appealing [7][8]. - Coleman's fund increased its Nvidia shares from 9,683,550 at the end of 2023 to 10,967,550 by the end of March 2025, following Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split [6]. - Factors influencing Coleman's decision include Nvidia's strong market position, ongoing demand for its products, and CEO Jensen Huang's ambitious innovation timeline with new AI chips planned for release annually [11][12]. Group 3: Selling Trends Among Other Billionaires - Most billionaire investors have been selling Nvidia shares, likely due to profit-taking after the stock's significant rise [15]. - Notable sales include Stanley Druckenmiller, who sold all 9,500,750 shares, and David Tepper, who reduced his stake by 97% [20]. - The selling trend may also reflect concerns about competition in the AI space and the potential for Nvidia's market share to decline as competitors ramp up production [16][18].

Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has experienced an 18.7% increase in share price over the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which gained 6.9% during the same period [1] - The surge in NVIDIA's shares is partly attributed to improved sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade relations, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China cutting duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2][3] - This trade relief has alleviated concerns about prolonged disruptions, boosting market sentiment and benefiting stocks across various sectors, particularly technology and semiconductors [3] Group 2: Data Center Business Growth - NVIDIA's Data Center segment remains its primary growth driver, generating $39.1 billion in revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, accounting for 89% of total company sales, with a year-over-year growth of 73% and a sequential rise of 10% [5][7] - The demand for AI infrastructure is a significant factor fueling this growth, with hyperscalers increasingly adopting NVIDIA's GPUs to support their expanding AI workloads [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Guidance - Despite geopolitical challenges, NVIDIA's financials are robust, with revenues increasing by 69% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and non-GAAP earnings per share rising by 33% [10] - The company anticipates a revenue hit of $8 billion in the second quarter due to export restrictions on its H20 chips in China, yet maintains a strong second-quarter revenue guidance of $45 billion, reflecting a 50% increase from the same quarter last year [11][12] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - NVIDIA's current valuation is considered high, with a forward 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.13X, exceeding the sector's average of 25.52X [13] - Compared to other semiconductor companies, NVIDIA's P/E multiple is lower than Broadcom's 32.91X but higher than Advanced Micro Devices' 23.49X and Micron Technology's 9.61X [16] - The strong fundamentals, dominant position in AI, and positive growth outlook suggest that holding NVIDIA stock may be advisable despite its high valuation [17]

Group 1 - Analysts remain optimistic about certain tech stocks, including Nvidia, despite economic uncertainties, as major companies plan to invest heavily in AI [1] - Nvidia is seen as a potential winner this earnings season, with significant demand for custom chips from large tech firms seeking AI solutions [1] - Nvidia's new products, such as GB300 and Vera Rubin, are expected to drive growth even in a strict regulatory environment [2] Group 2 - Nvidia's sales in China have evaporated by $15 billion to $20 billion, contributing to a 17% decline in its stock price this year [2] - The ongoing trade war and export restrictions may shrink Nvidia's long-term hardware market by 20% [2] - Despite challenges, analysts maintain a "buy" rating for Nvidia with a target price of $150, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [2] Group 3 - Nvidia has revenue growth potential in the upcoming quarter due to sales of H20 chips in China before new bans take effect [3] - The Blackwell chip is expected to perform well in the market, supporting Nvidia's performance in the second half of the year [3] - Broadcom is also positioned favorably, benefiting from capital expenditure plans of companies like Google and Meta, with analysts maintaining a "buy" rating for Broadcom [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant developments in the AI industry, including major investments, product launches, and strategic shifts by leading companies [2][24]. Domestic Developments - Alibaba is reportedly aiming for full "AI integration" across its business by 2025, with all departments evaluated on their AI utilization for growth [4][5]. - Notable investor Duan Yongping purchased $9.25 million worth of Nvidia shares, but Nvidia's stock fell by 3.43% on the day of the announcement [5]. - Manus has registered its generative AI service Monica in Beijing, with the city leading in the number of registered large model products [5]. - The Step-Video-TI2V model was released, capable of generating 5-second videos with controllable motion [5]. - Yushutech showcased its humanoid robot and quadruped robot at AWE2025, attracting significant attention [6]. - The AI service Deepseek will assist users in estimating repair costs, enhancing transparency in pricing [8]. - Xiaomi's AI search and writing tools were among 34 newly registered generative AI services in Beijing [14]. International Developments - OpenAI launched new voice models aimed at developing voice AI agents, marking a significant advancement in the field [14]. - Elon Musk's xAI is collaborating with BlackRock to establish an AI infrastructure investment fund, indicating a competitive stance against OpenAI [15]. - Apple is restructuring its AI leadership to revitalize its AI initiatives, particularly focusing on improving Siri [15][16]. - Nvidia introduced the GROOT N1, an open-source humanoid robot model, which is expected to accelerate the development of humanoid robots [19][21]. - Google announced a $32 billion acquisition of cloud security company Wiz, enhancing its cloud capabilities in the AI era [21]. Investment and Financing Overview - This week, there were 7 disclosed AI financing events globally, totaling approximately 563 million RMB, with an average investment of 94 million RMB [25][31]. - The majority of domestic AI financing events were concentrated in Zhejiang and Beijing, with 4 and 3 events respectively [28]. - Zhihui AI, a developer of AI knowledge technology, completed a 300 million RMB D++ round financing, focusing on large model innovations [31].

Core Insights - The article highlights significant developments in the tech industry during the week of March 17-23, 2025, including major acquisitions, product launches, and strategic partnerships [2] Group 1: Major Events - NVIDIA's GTC 2025 opened with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing a 100-fold increase in AI computing demand in the coming years and introducing new chips, including the Blackwell Ultra GPU [4][5] - Google announced a $32 billion acquisition of cloud security startup Wiz, marking its largest acquisition to date, aimed at enhancing its cloud business [8][9] - Apple is restructuring its AI leadership to revitalize Siri, with Mike Rockwell taking over from John Giannandrea due to concerns over product development delays [13][14] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Google is collaborating with Taiwan's MediaTek to develop the next generation of AI chips, focusing on cost optimization and improved performance [10][11][12] - NVIDIA is establishing a quantum computing research lab in Boston, partnering with Harvard and MIT, and has also formed a collaboration with French startup Pasqal for quantum computing technology [6][7] Group 3: Company Developments - Tesla is recalling 46,096 Cybertrucks due to potential issues with interior components, marking its eighth recall since January 2024 [16][17] - SoftBank is acquiring chip manufacturer Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion, focusing on high-performance processors for data centers [29][30][31] - Adobe launched AI-based marketing tools to enhance user experience and automate tasks, with a full rollout expected by summer 2025 [20][21][22] Group 4: Investment and Valuation - CoreWeave plans to achieve a valuation of up to $32 billion in its upcoming IPO, with expected proceeds of $2.3 to $2.7 billion [41][43] - Perplexity AI is negotiating a funding round aiming for a post-money valuation of $18 billion, doubling its previous valuation [44][45] - The Bot Company, founded by former Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt, raised $150 million in a funding round, reaching a valuation of $2 billion [46][47][48]