报告要点： 国元证券近日发布机械行业周报：2025年11月23日至11月28日，上证综指上涨1.40%，深证成指上涨 3.56%，创业板指上涨4.54%。其中申万机械设备上涨3.91%，相较沪深300指数跑赢2.26pct，在31个申 万一级行业中排名第7。细分子行业来看，申万通用设备/专用设备/轨交设备Ⅱ/工程机械/自动化设备分 别涨4.70%/4.28%/1.20%/3.27%/3.61%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 机械设备板块：2025年10月升降工作平台出租率指数为660点，环比略降3.8%，同比上涨4.6%。总体看 10月份各机型环比出租率指数有涨有跌，其中20~24m机型出租率指数环比跌幅最大，达到8.7%， 14~16m以上机型环比涨幅最大，达到3.1%。我们看好后续工程机械行业仍将维持稳步增长态势。 机械设备：出口链板块，我们建议关注巨星科技、泉峰控股、九号公司等；工程机械板块，我们建议关 注三一重工、徐工机械、安徽合力等；工业母机板块，我们建议关注华中数控、科德数控、恒立液压 等。 风险提示 全球宏观经济增长不及预期风险；企业经营状况低于预期风险；原料价格上升风险；汇率波动风险；竞 争格局加剧 ...

Industry Perspective - Semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with significant growth potential driven by storage expansion and domestic substitution [1] - According to SEMI, the semiconductor equipment market will maintain a 33.2% share as the largest single market globally in the first half of 2025, with leading domestic companies showing impressive performance [1] - The combined revenue of eight leading domestic companies is expected to grow by 37.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 23.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Investment Logic - The global semiconductor market has entered a strong recovery cycle, with the market expected to grow by 18.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 15.4% for the entire year [2] - AI technology is driving a surge in storage demand, with significant supply-demand gaps pushing prices higher; NAND and DRAM prices are expected to rise by 5-10% and 13-18%, respectively, by Q4 2025 [2] Domestic Storage Leaders - Domestic storage companies are accelerating capacity expansion, with Longxin Storage starting its IPO process and Jiangsu Changjiang Storage's third-phase project being officially established [3] - The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and advancements in NAND stacking are expected to significantly increase the market for etching and thin-film deposition equipment, with projected growth of 1.7 times and 1.8 times, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for order growth and performance realization in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector [4] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Zhongwei Company, which is expected to benefit from storage expansion and 3D technology iterations [4] - Other recommended companies include North Huachuang, which has a broad product line, and Huahai Qingke, Zhongke Feice, and Jingce Electronics, which are rapidly increasing their domestic market share in specific segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the National Energy Administration have jointly released three methodologies for voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in offshore and onshore oil and gas fields, marking the first expansion of the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market to the oil and gas extraction sector [1] Group 1: Methane Emission Management - Methane is the second-largest greenhouse gas globally and is a key focus for the international community in addressing climate change [1] - The oil and gas extraction process often generates significant amounts of methane, which are typically either directly emitted or burned due to technical and cost constraints, leading to greenhouse gas emissions and energy waste [1] Group 2: Methodology Objectives - The newly released methodologies aim to guide companies in improving their handling of methane, converting it into usable clean energy [1] - The methodologies are designed to enhance environmental and economic benefits by promoting the synergy of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and resource recovery [1] Group 3: Implementation and Future Steps - The design of the methodologies draws on mature experiences from international voluntary emission reduction mechanisms while considering the realities of China's oil and gas industry, enhancing the operability of project development and subsequent regulation [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the establishment of a voluntary emission reduction methodology system to achieve comprehensive coverage in key areas and promote the development of emission reduction projects [1]

Core Points - The company has implemented a proactive approach to prevent fire hazards in forest areas by organizing special inspections of the 10 kV 584 West Tang line, especially during dry winter conditions [1] - A joint defense and control mechanism has been established with local emergency management, forestry departments, and village committees to ensure rapid response to fire incidents [1] - The company has developed a detailed inspection plan that assigns fire prevention responsibilities to individuals and increases inspection frequency for important forest-related lines [2] Group 1 - The company has organized a service team to conduct special inspections of forest-related power lines to ensure safety and stability of the power grid [1] - A communication system has been established with the meteorological bureau for real-time sharing of weather alerts and fire monitoring information [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of a coordinated effort among all departments to ensure the safety of the power grid during emergencies [1] Group 2 - The company has adopted a combination of drone and manual inspections to enhance efficiency and coverage in identifying fire hazards along power lines [2] - Specific measures have been taken to address potential fire risks, including the removal of overgrown trees and debris near power lines [2] - A record-keeping system has been implemented for hazards that cannot be immediately rectified, ensuring that all issues are tracked and resolved [2]

国网泰安供电公司锚定对标世界一流企业价值创造目标，聚焦服务价值创造体系、运营价值创造能力、 社会价值创造功能，实现向质量效率型、注重长期效能、整体服务价值"三个转变"，为优化营商环境、 助推经济社会高质量发展提供有力支撑。 围绕"效率提升、成本降低"，聚焦企业降本增效与数智赋能应用,系统性优化供电服务保障。一是数智 赋能强化服务保障。与泰安市工信局签署构建数字工信体系合作协议，落地山东电力"火石"平台赋能企 业数字化转型，为企业提供"设备全生命周期管理"等12类应用场景，相关工作成果入选山东省工信厅数 字化转型揭榜挂帅榜单。选优建强电量监测专班,及时研判电量变化趋势，为政府调度工业运行提供支 撑。二是助力企业降本增效。将"零上门、零审批、零投资"服务范围扩大至所有民营经济组织，全面推 广接网方案编制免费、带电作业接火免费、变电站接电服务免费"三免费"服务；实施高压企业"省时、 省力、省钱"服务，落实延伸到客户区划红线投资政策，为470家企业节省投资超2500万元。构建"以电 算碳"融资模式，协调碳资产公司为企业出具碳评价报告，银行根据报告为企业拨付绿色低息贷款,协助 100余家企业获得绿色低息贷款,全力满足企 ...

理想汽车四季度给出了10万-11万辆的交付指引，同比减少37.0%至30.7%。若要达成预期，其12月需交 付3.5万辆以上的新车。 截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，理想汽车在全国已有 544 家零售中心，覆盖 157 个城市；售后维修中心及授 权钣喷中心 556 家，覆盖 227 个城市。理想汽车在全国已投入使用 3614 座理想超充站，拥有 20027 个 充电桩。 来源：深圳商报 12月1日，造车新势力先后公布11月交付情况。"蔚小理"较上一月的交付量均出现不同程度的下滑，其 中理想汽车11月份交付33,181辆，已连续6个月出现同比下降；同比则下跌31.92%，理想汽车去年 11 月 的交付量为 48740 辆。 不仅11月交付量不佳，理想汽车最新的业绩也全面崩坏。2025年Q3财报，理想汽车营收274亿元，同比 暴跌36.2%；净亏损为6.24亿元，上年同期为净利润28亿元，同比由盈转亏。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huada Electronic Co., Ltd. (referred to as Huadian) has submitted its prospectus for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and HSBC acting as joint sponsors. The company is a leading provider of PCB solutions in the data communication and smart automotive sectors, driven by the growing demand for data centers fueled by artificial intelligence [1][2]. Financial Performance - Huadian's revenue for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2024 and 2025 is projected to be RMB 8.336 billion, RMB 8.938 billion, RMB 13.342 billion, RMB 5.424 billion, and RMB 8.493 billion respectively. The revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by 57.2% year-on-year, accelerating from 49.3% in 2024 [1][2]. - The net profit for the same periods is expected to be RMB 1.362 billion, RMB 1.513 billion, RMB 2.587 billion, RMB 1.141 billion, and RMB 1.683 billion respectively. The net profit for 2024 is projected to grow by 71.1% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the revenue growth of 49.3%. The net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by 47.5% year-on-year [2]. Market Position - In the PCB market, Huadian holds a global market share of 10.3% in the data center sector, 25.3% in PCBs with 22 layers or more, and 12.5% in PCBs for switches and routers, all ranking first globally [1]. - The company's core PCB business accounts for over 95% of its revenue, with the revenue from PCBs with 32 layers or more increasing from RMB 512 million in 2022 to RMB 1.768 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 1.558 billion in the first half of 2025, doubling its revenue share from 6.1% to 18.3% over three years [2]. Customer and Supplier Concentration - Huadian faces high customer and supplier concentration risks, with the top five customers accounting for over 45% of revenue for three consecutive years, reaching 50.9% in 2024. The largest customer contributed 12.3% of total revenue [2]. - The top five suppliers accounted for 40.5% of purchases in 2024, with the largest supplier contributing 21.1%. The company relies heavily on a few suppliers for core raw materials, particularly copper-clad laminates [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the new quota management system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will significantly restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a projected supply decrease to 200,000 tons by 2025, with further increases to 214,000 tons in 2026 and 216,000 tons in 2027 [1][2] - Global cobalt consumption is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage for cobalt [1][2] - The DRC's new quota system has replaced the previous export ban, with annual export volumes expected to be less than 100,000 tons, including a base quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [2] Group 2 - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously being consumed across the entire supply chain, with significant reductions in cobalt intermediate stocks in China, dropping from 45,000 tons in May to 17,000 tons currently, resulting in a total reduction of 32,000 tons over five months [2] - Cobalt product prices have experienced a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, marking a 306% increase [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the end of the Cold War, with the announcement expected in early February 2026 [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of colder weather and declining inventories on natural gas prices in the U.S., which increased by 10.5% week-on-week, while European gas prices decreased by 5.6% due to inventory withdrawals [1][2]. Price Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the week-on-week price changes for various natural gas benchmarks are as follows: U.S. HH +10.5%, European TTF -5.6%, East Asia JKM -3.3%, China LNG ex-factory -0.9%, and China LNG CIF -4.5%, with prices at 1.2, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, and 2.8 CNY per cubic meter respectively [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The U.S. natural gas market saw a week-on-week inventory decrease of 110 billion cubic feet, bringing total storage to 39,350 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2]. - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to August 2025 was 2,884 billion cubic meters, up 4.6% year-on-year. The supply increased by 25.1% week-on-week to 102,598 GWh, with significant contributions from inventory consumption and LNG terminals [2]. - Domestic natural gas prices in China decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of 0.7% to 3,541 billion cubic meters [2]. Pricing Progress - As of November 2025, 67% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 CNY per cubic meter [3]. Important Announcements - China Gas reported total revenue of 31.481 billion CNY for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, a decrease of 1.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.218 billion CNY, down 24.22% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on retail gas and connection services [3]. Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on price mechanism adjustments and demand growth. Key recommendations include companies like Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with notable dividend yields [3].

Industry Overview - The carbon quota allocation mechanism is linked to production output without a total carbon emission cap, focusing on intensity-based dynamic adjustments [1][2] - The allocation mechanism is based on the experience of the power generation industry, implementing free quota distribution based on carbon emission intensity control, with total quotas dynamically associated with industry production levels [2] - New key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries must complete the first quota clearance for 2024 by 2025 [1][2] Company Tracking - Longking Environmental has seen significant shareholding increases from Zijin Mining, with stable leadership transitions expected to enhance Longking's business [3] - China Water Affairs reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for FY26H1, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 571 million, down 24.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in connection and construction activities [3] - The company has reduced capital expenditures by 31.8% to HKD 1.243 billion in FY26H1, while maintaining a dividend of HKD 0.13 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.8% [3] Solid Waste Sector Insights - The solid waste sector has shown strong fundamentals in Q3 2025, with a 12% increase in net profit and a 2.7 percentage point increase in gross margin [3] - Free cash flow in the solid waste sector reached RMB 13.3 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with capital expenditures down 12% [3] - The average waste incineration companies' output per ton increased by 1.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, indicating operational efficiency improvements [3] Water Sector Insights - The water sector is expected to experience a cash flow turnaround, with significant increases in free cash flow anticipated starting in 2026 [4] - Recent water price reforms in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are expected to enhance revenue and profitability for water companies [5] - Recommended companies in the water sector include Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment, with a focus on improving cash flow and dividend payouts [5] Industry Tracking - The sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 61.32% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, with a penetration rate of 18.02% [6] - The average price of biodiesel remained stable, while net profits per ton have declined [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen, improving profitability in lithium battery recycling [6]