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全球贸易在2026年前景如何?分析师:这四个“不确定性”很关键
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 11:37
虽然全球最大经济体在构筑关税壁垒,但大部分国际机构的统计数据都证实,全球商品贸易在2025年仍 然保持了相对良好的势头。 不过,在整体韧性之下,暗流涌动,贸易的轨迹发生了转变:美国进口量下降,非洲、中东、拉丁美洲 等发展中经济体的进口量均呈现强劲增长态势。 美国知名智库海事战略中心研究员、航运业明星分析师麦科恩(John McCown)在最新一期研究报告中 称,10月全球集装箱货运量同比增长2.1%,但世界集装箱供应链已经开始调整和重塑贸易模式,"在美 国2024年全年集装箱进口量增长15.2%之后,如果说2025年的年度总数将与此截然相反,那都是轻描淡 写了。" 麦考恩认为,特朗普政府的贸易威胁是货物运输模式重塑的主要原因之一。他认为,如果说2025年是关 税之年,那么2026年将是关税后果显现之年。 与此同时,大部分贸易专家都预计,未来一年国际贸易动荡将加剧,而其中有四个"不确定性"最为关 键,分别是:重新审查美墨加协定(USMCA)、重启红海之路、协议的不确定性和美国最高法院对特 朗普政府关税的裁决。 重审美墨加协定 美国、加拿大和墨西哥即将开始审查2020年生效的《北美自由贸易协定》。美国贸易代表格里 ...
从“特斯拉门徒”到“赋能滴滴”:智驾江湖中场,在夹击中爆发
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 11:35
Core Insights - Nullmax, founded by a former Tesla executive, received a strategic investment in the C1 round from a domestic automotive-grade chip company, highlighting its credibility in an industry focused on "software-hardware integration" and "vertical integration" [1] - The company aims to position itself as an AI company rather than just a supplier for automotive firms, with a vision of expanding its technology beyond the automotive sector [1][2] - Nullmax's approach combines a "vision-centric" strategy with multi-sensor fusion, allowing it to stand out as a leading independent AI company capable of achieving "software-defined intelligent driving" [1][5] Company Development - The founder, Xu Lei, transitioned from Qualcomm to Tesla, where he played a key role in developing Autopilot, before establishing Nullmax in 2016 to focus on the rapid growth of ADAS in China [2][3] - The company initially collaborated with Didi on a project that faced challenges due to Didi's strategic shift, leading to a focus on a more flexible "platformization" strategy [3][6] - Nullmax has developed a middleware layer that abstracts hardware interfaces, allowing its software to be compatible across various chip platforms, enhancing deployment flexibility [5][6] Business Model - Nullmax's business model is more adaptable compared to traditional Tier 1 suppliers, focusing on high-margin, low-inventory risk "pure software licensing" [6] - The company aims to leverage its software platform to deploy solutions across different regions and chip platforms, emphasizing a pragmatic approach to business development [6][9] - The potential for rapid scalability is evident, with expectations of reaching a million vehicle scale in the next five years through partnerships with leading Tier 1 companies [7][9] Future Prospects - Nullmax is exploring applications beyond automotive, including industrial AGVs, agricultural machinery, and specialized robots, indicating a strategy to diversify its market presence [9][10] - The company is expanding into international markets, including Europe and Southeast Asia, through localized partnerships with Tier 1/OEMs to adapt to regional traffic regulations and chip ecosystems [9][10] - As the industry evolves, Nullmax aims to capitalize on its visual AI capabilities to drive innovation across various sectors, positioning itself for future growth opportunities [10]
“牛马” 黄金吊坠被指阴阳打工人,周大福回应
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 11:24
2025.12.26 本文字数:770,阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 |智通财经、锦观新闻、鲁中日报、密度新闻 近日,广东一网友在社媒发帖吐槽周大福"牛马"方圆牌黄金吊坠,直言 "收了这个你就是金牌牛马", 此帖随即引发热议,冲上热搜。 该款产品官方小程序售价3044.7元起。据智通财经,周大福微信小程序商城上的客服人员表示该款产品 暂时没在销售,一般是没有库存然后下架了。不过,周大福天猫官方旗舰店上显示,该款产品目前仍在 销售之中,页面显示的售价为3115.35元。 此外,周大福某电商平台客服表示,该款产品寓意为不怕困难、好运加倍,吊坠上"牛马"字样是繁体 字。 近期黄金价格上涨,周大福今年来第三次对一口价黄金产品进行了提价。12月17日,周大福天猫官方旗 舰店在首页发布公告称:受市场因素影响,部分商品即将提价。点击公告后的界面显示,提价时间为12 月19日。 据了解,本轮涨价中,周大福部分"一口价"黄金饰品涨幅达4%-16%,当前足金饰品克价已突破1400 元。 爱企查App显示,截至目前,周大福关联公司周大福珠宝金行(深圳)有限公司已申请超6000项专利, 专利类型涵盖外观设计、发明专利与实用新型,其中绝大 ...
2026年A股能否继续长牛?专家称上市公司业绩增长是关键
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 10:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the potential market dynamics in 2026, focusing on whether the PE/VC sectors can benefit from a recovery in IPOs and increased mergers and acquisitions, as well as the continuation of a slow bull market in A-shares in 2025 [1][2] - Professor He Qiang emphasizes that for the stock market to achieve further growth, two key factors are necessary: continuous growth in listed company performance and a steady influx of medium to long-term capital [2][3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide favorable policy expectations for capital market development, which is seen as crucial for establishing a well-functioning capital market [2] Group 2 - To achieve performance growth, listed companies must prioritize being responsible to investors, shifting focus from merely financing to also considering investment [3] - The market requires a continuous influx of incremental capital to support upward movement, with daily trading volumes needing to reach between 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion yuan [3] - In the primary market, there is a call for a more inclusive venture capital environment, with suggestions to extend the evaluation and assessment periods for state-owned LPs [4][5]
湖北成立全国首个碳金融联盟,探索碳金融创新
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 09:41
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hubei Carbon Financial Development Alliance marks the first carbon market alliance in China focused on carbon finance innovation, aiming to create a comprehensive carbon service ecosystem [1] Group 1: Alliance Formation and Objectives - The Hubei Carbon Financial Development Alliance consists of 85 member units from key enterprises, financial institutions, universities, and industry associations [1] - The alliance aims to explore carbon finance innovation and develop a full-chain carbon service ecosystem [1] - Zhang Shimin, General Manager of Hubei Hongtai Group, emphasizes a four-pronged strategy to enhance the carbon market and finance, focusing on market activation, financial optimization, industry strengthening, and practical carbon inclusivity [3] Group 2: Financial Products and Achievements - Hubei has developed diverse carbon financial products, including carbon pledge, carbon repurchase, carbon insurance, and carbon bonds, with a total of 68 carbon financial transactions amounting to 1.309 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% of the financing scale in the pilot carbon market [3] - The province has also expanded its green finance scale, with the "E-Green Pass" platform registering 848 green projects and completing financing of 151.8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Future Directions - The national carbon market has successfully expanded, becoming the largest carbon market globally, with over 1.138 billion yuan in financial clearing [4] - Experts suggest that Hubei should leverage its pilot carbon market advantages to explore innovations in carbon futures, options, insurance, and credit products [4] - Recommendations include developing green low-carbon financial tools to support the commercialization of green research outcomes and promoting carbon-linked loan developments [4] Group 4: Collaborative Initiatives - The Hubei Electric Power Design Institute launched the "Electric Carbon Time Loan" in collaboration with several financial and energy institutions [5] - Insurance products like "Carbon Reduction Insurance" were introduced, with partnerships established among various financial entities [5] - China Minsheng Bank signed a cooperation agreement to promote carbon-inclusive financial city alliances [5]
光伏板块股价大涨
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 08:42
Market Overview - The A-share photovoltaic sector experienced a surge of nearly 3%, with leading stocks including Yangguang Electric (300274.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), and Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) showing significant gains [2] - The continuous capacity reduction in upstream silicon materials and rising silver paste prices are positively impacting the photovoltaic industry chain, leading to price increases in downstream silicon wafer companies [2][3] Price Trends - According to Infolink Consulting, the prices of silicon wafers have increased significantly due to strong pricing intentions from silicon wafer manufacturers. The average transaction prices for various types of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers rose as follows: - N-type G10L: 1.2 yuan/piece, up 2.56% week-on-week - N-type G12R: 1.31 yuan/piece, up 9.17% week-on-week - N-type G12: 1.52 yuan/piece, up 1.33% week-on-week [2][3] Cost Structure - Silver paste has surpassed silicon materials to become the largest cost component in photovoltaic modules, with silver prices increasing over 140% this year. The cost breakdown for photovoltaic components is as follows: - Silver paste: 17% - Silicon materials: 14% - Glass: 13% [3] Component Pricing - Major component manufacturers are raising module prices in response to rising silver prices, with recent market price increases ranging from 0.02 yuan/watt to 0.04 yuan/watt. The current transaction price for mainstream distributed components is between 0.68 yuan/watt and 0.71 yuan/watt [4] Industry Performance - The photovoltaic industry's upstream polysilicon spot prices have risen from 35,400 yuan/ton to 53,600 yuan/ton, leading to a reduction in industry losses. In the first three quarters of 2025, the industry reported losses of 31.039 billion yuan, with the third quarter losses narrowing by nearly 50% compared to the second quarter [5] Regulatory Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for order regulation and innovation in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance industry concentration and maintain a fair competitive environment. The focus is on eliminating inefficient capacity and promoting differentiated competitive advantages [4] Capacity Growth - As of the end of November, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. Solar power generation capacity specifically reached 1.16 billion kilowatts, marking a 41.9% year-on-year growth [4]
中原保时捷中心母公司回应:我们不会跑的
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 06:58
Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the operational anomalies of two Porsche dealerships under Dong'an Group, raising concerns about the company's stability and management [2] - Dong'an Group operates multiple dealerships, including brands like BMW, Audi, and Honda, primarily located in Zhengzhou and Xinxiang, which is the company's base [2] - Despite the rumors of the company "running away," an internal source from Dong'an Group stated they would take responsibility, although they were unaware of the operational issues at the dealerships [2] Group 2 - Another subsidiary, Xinxiang Dongxin Automobile Co., which directly controls the affected 4S stores, was unresponsive when contacted for details about its operational status [3] - The only dealership that was reachable confirmed it was still operating but reported internal operational irregularities [2]
同仁堂处理磷虾油造假管理人员
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 06:18
Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding Tongrentang's krill oil fraud has led to significant management changes and regulatory scrutiny, highlighting issues in brand management and product quality oversight [2][5]. Group 1: Company Actions - On December 25, Tongrentang Group announced that it has taken over the management of Beijing Tongrentang (Sichuan) Health Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., resulting in the dismissal of its general manager and suspension of other related personnel [2]. - Tongrentang has initiated a brand management campaign, conducting thorough checks across its affiliated units and stores, with over 520 inspections completed by December 24 [3]. - The company has launched a product information query system on its official website, providing access to over 1,000 product details to guide consumers in identifying genuine Tongrentang products [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has indicated that the krill oil incident reveals non-compliance in the production and processing practices of companies, leading to plans for new regulations on food production supervision [5]. - SAMR will enhance monitoring of similar brand licensing and processing practices, with upcoming special inspections targeting krill oil and fish oil products to combat illegal activities [5]. Group 3: Legal and Consumer Rights Issues - Legal experts have pointed out that Tongrentang's failure to act against unauthorized use of its trademark after the expiration of its licensing agreement constitutes negligence, potentially infringing on consumer rights [5]. - Consumers remain unaware of the trademark licensing status, which raises concerns about misleading practices that violate their right to information [5].
超3900只个股下跌
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 04:09
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3952.09, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17% to 13554.07, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% to 3234.63 [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion CNY, a significant increase of 251.3 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The AI industry chain experienced a collective pullback, with sectors such as CPO, liquid cooling, and high-speed copper concepts leading the declines [3] - Conversely, the lithium battery industry chain surged, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [4][8] - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of differentiation, with stocks like Changjiang Communication and Youke De hitting the daily limit [6] Commodity Trends - Precious metals, including silver and gold, saw significant price increases, with silver surpassing 75 USD per ounce and gold exceeding 4530 USD per ounce, both reaching historical highs [15] - The futures market for palladium and platinum also showed strong performance, with palladium rising over 8% and platinum futures hitting a 9.99% increase [16] Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining's stock price increased by 3.47%, reaching 33.14 CNY, marking a historical high [8] - Jiangxi Copper's stock rose by over 7%, reflecting the overall strength in the non-ferrous metals sector [10]
年终盘点丨算力国产化托底,资本市场GPU新股狂飙突进
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-26 04:09
Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers in China's stock market has garnered significant attention, with companies like Cambricon (寒武纪) and Moore Threads (摩尔线程) achieving remarkable stock price increases upon their listings [2][3] - The market is witnessing a surge in domestic GPU manufacturers, with several companies preparing for IPOs, indicating a growing interest in AI chip production [3][4] - Despite high expectations for domestic AI chips, challenges remain, including competition from established players like NVIDIA and the need for these companies to prove their value in a crowded market [10][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cambricon surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares, reflecting investor enthusiasm for AI chip stocks [2] - Moore Threads and Muxi Technology saw their stock prices soar on their debut, with Muxi achieving a record profit for new listings in nearly a decade [2][3] - The entry of NVIDIA's H200 chip into the Chinese market adds complexity to the competitive landscape for domestic GPU manufacturers [3][16] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Moore Threads, Muxi, Bilan Technology, and Tensu Zhixin from 2022 to 2024 shows significant increases, but all companies reported substantial losses during the same period [7][8] - The revenue from the top five customers for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with some companies relying on a small number of clients for the majority of their income [9][10] Group 3: Market Share and Competition - The market share of domestic GPU manufacturers remains low, with Muxi holding approximately 1% of the AI accelerator market in 2024, and other companies reporting similar figures [9][10] - The competition among these manufacturers is intensifying, with no clear leader emerging in terms of market share or product performance [10][11] Group 4: Customer Dynamics - The customer base for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with significant fluctuations in client relationships, indicating potential revenue instability [9][10] - Major clients are increasingly shifting, with only a few companies remaining consistent among the top customers year over year [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The domestic GPU market is expected to see a gradual increase in localization, with projections indicating that the domestic GPU market's localization rate will rise from 2% in 2022 to over 50% by 2029 [12][13] - Companies are focusing on enhancing product performance and building a robust ecosystem to compete effectively against international players like NVIDIA [18][20]