2025.12.31 本文字数：1767，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025年末，美元指数即将录得2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 结合衍生品市场情况，市场预计，明年伴随美联储继续降息、特朗普干预美联储等因素，美元还将继续 走弱。 8年来最差年度走势 今年，衡量美元对一篮子主要货币的美元指数下跌9.5%，即将录得8年来最大年度跌幅。今年4月，美 国总统特朗普所谓的"对等关税"引发了投资者对美国经济和美元霸权地位、避险资产地位的担忧和质 疑。当时，美元指数一度下跌15%。欧元对美元汇率在主要货币中涨幅最大，年度飙升近14%，至1.17 美元以上，上一次欧元达到这一水平还是在2021年。 德意志银行的外汇研究全球主管萨瓦罗斯（George Saravelos）甚至表示："这是美元与黄金脱钩、实施 自由浮动汇率的半个世纪多以来，美元表现最糟糕的一年。"在4月大幅下跌后，美元一度收复部分失 地，但美联储9月恢复降息，使其重新面临压力。 商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新数据显示，12月9日开始，交易员就转而重新做空美元，为今年10 月以来首次做空。 期权定价也变得更加负面，期权交易员对美元的看跌程度达到三个月来最高水平。存 ...

Group 1 - The top three fund companies in November are China Europe Fund, Huaxia Fund, and Fuguo Fund, with several companies like Xingzheng Global Fund and Morgan Fund making it to the top 20 list [1] - Notable educational content on Douyin includes anti-fraud warnings, practical financial knowledge, and industry hot topic analyses, which received significant user engagement [1] - Huaxia Fund's video on financial fraud received nearly 100,000 likes, while E Fund's analysis of Japan's "lost thirty years" garnered 63,000 likes, indicating a trend towards deeper, more professional content [1][6] Group 2 - The November high-view content on fund video accounts shows a trend towards lightweight, engaging formats focusing on industry insights and market outlooks [9] - The high-view live broadcasts on wealth accounts primarily revolve around market hot topics and asset allocation strategies, reflecting a consistent engagement pattern [11] - The public account rankings feature content mainly focused on promotional activities and product advertisements, highlighting a marketing-driven approach [13]

新版国家医保药品目录、首版商保创新药目录将于2026年1月1日起执行。 复星医药相关负责人也告诉记者，此次公司的"芦沃美替尼片""盐酸替那帕诺片"这2款药物进入新版医 保目录。为了让患者尽早用上新增创新药，公司针对2款药物采取了不同的生产制造策略。 12月7日，《国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录（2025年）》发布，新增114种药品（肿 瘤、心脑血管等为主），其中50种1类创新药，调整后目录内药品总数增至3253种；《商业健康保险创 新药品目录（2025年）》共纳入19种药品，其中5种为CAR-T药物。 "双目录"中各类新增创新药物的配备情况如何？还有哪些待完善？为此，第一财经采访了多家药企、药 店。 药企本土化生产 "此次我们有一款'替妥尤单抗n01注射液（商品名为信必敏）'进入新版国家医保药品目录。该药物也是 我国唯一经国家医保覆盖、能够逆转甲状腺突眼的无创靶向疗法，彻底解决甲状腺眼病患者对于靶向 化、无创化药物的所需。"信达生物制药集团副总裁李延寿表示。 该负责人进一步称，比如，为匹配医保落地后的市场需求，芦沃美替尼片在生产端采取了"原料储备、 弹性生产"的策略；短期委托CDMO（合同委托生 ...

记者｜吕倩 编辑｜瑜见 12月31日，月之暗面（Kimi）创始人、CEO杨植麟发布内部信，称公司有超100亿元人民币现金储备。 另有消息称，Kimi近期完成5亿美元C轮融资，IDG领投，阿里、腾讯、王慧文等老股东超额认购。截至 发稿，月之暗面方面暂未予以确认。 ...

Group 1: Local Consumption Trends - The demand for local consumption and ride-hailing services is surging as the New Year holiday approaches, with Didi reporting an expected ride-hailing demand exceeding 80 million on December 31 [1] - The bathing industry is projected to experience significant growth in 2025, with search volume for keywords related to 24-hour bathing centers increasing over six times year-on-year in the week leading up to New Year [1] Group 2: Bathing Industry Insights - The general manager of Nanjing Jiuhua Hot Spring Life Hall anticipates a record high in customer flow and transaction volume during the New Year period, estimating a 40%-50% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The core customer demographic for Jiuhua Hot Spring is primarily young individuals aged 18-35, making up over 60% of the clientele, with family customers steadily increasing to 25% [3] - The establishment has evolved from a traditional bathing service to a comprehensive urban micro-vacation destination, enhancing customer experience with amenities like free tea and gaming areas, resulting in an average stay of 10 hours [3] Group 3: KTV and Beauty Industry Performance - The KTV industry has emerged as a surprising performer during the New Year holiday, with transaction volume increasing nearly 30% year-on-year in the two weeks leading up to the holiday, particularly in Taiyuan and Changsha where growth exceeded 70% [4] - The 00s generation is the fastest-growing demographic in KTV transactions, with a year-on-year increase of over 57% [4] - The beauty industry has also seen a surge in activity, with nearly 200,000 beauty service providers on platforms experiencing close to 100% income growth year-on-year during the weekend before New Year [5] Group 4: Ride-Hailing Demand Surge - Midnight ride-hailing demand spiked as many opted to celebrate New Year outside, with Didi predicting an 11% year-on-year increase in ride requests in the half-hour leading up to midnight [5] - The demand for high-quality transportation services, such as Didi's premium and luxury car options, is expected to rise significantly, with increases of 226% and 188% respectively compared to the previous week [5]

12月31日下午，上纬新材旗下的机器人业务品牌上纬启元发布了全球首款全身力控小尺寸人形机器 人"上纬启元Q1"。 据了解，该机器人身高约80厘米左右，主要面向极客玩家、家庭以及科研教育等用户。 记者｜乔心怡 编辑｜瑜见 ...

系列盘点： （长版图片，请将手机调整至横屏阅读） 制图｜"晓数点"工作室 ...

作者 |一财阿驴 12月31日，A股2025年交易收官，截至收盘，沪指涨0.09%录得11连阳，全年收涨18.41%创10年新高； 深成指跌0.58%，全年收涨29.87%；创业板指跌1.23%，全年大涨49.57%。科创50指数全年涨35.92%， 北证50指数全年涨38.8%。 盘面上，商业航天概念延续强势，AI应用方向持续走强，教育、航空机场、文化传媒等板块涨幅居 前；医药商业、船舶制造、电池、石油、半导体等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，商业航天概念延续强势，北斗星通、烽火通信、雷科防务等20股涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300516 | 久之洋 | +20.00% | 80.70 | | 301232 | 飞沃科技 | +17.91% | 168.37 | | 300136 | 信维通信 | +16.98% | 62.00 | | 300102 | 乾照光电 | +15.75% | 27.56 | | 688623 | 航天环宇 | +14.55% | 55.96 | | 3012a2 | 太力科技 | +14.47% | ...

2025年，公募REITs这个曾被视为"小众品类"的投资工具在二级市场上获得青睐。 整体看来，公募REITs在上半年火热大涨后，近期经历了调整。据Wind统计，中证REITs全收益指数 2025年年初至8月高点上涨近10%，随后受宏观经济数据不及预期影响出现回调。 截至12月31日，78只上市REITs中年内55只收涨，22只收跌。其中，嘉实物美消费REIT年内涨幅超39% 排在首位，其次，华夏金茂商业REIT、博时津开科工产业园REIT、华安百联消费REIT、中金印力消费 基础设施REIT等6只REITs年内涨幅均超过30%。 不同资产类型的产品表现也出现分化。其中，消费REITs以年内超30%的平均涨幅领跑市场。 全年新发行产品20单、扩募5单，合计募资473.35亿元。这是2025年国内公募REITs的成绩单。 "消费补贴政策消费的拉动和市场预期回暖推动下，消费类基础设施REITs涨幅居前。"一位消费REIT原 始权益方相关人士接受第一财经记者采访时提醒道，随着涨幅不断扩大，部分产品估值已处于较高水 平，未来可能存在回调风险。参与消费类REITs投资时，应充分考虑自身的风险承受能力和投资目标， 避免盲目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a significant shift as deposit rates decline, leading to a "deposit migration" where residents are moving their funds from traditional deposits to diversified assets like wealth management products, insurance, and gold. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with further adjustments in the deposit market anticipated [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In 2025, the personal deposit and wealth management markets showed a clear structural differentiation, with long-term fixed deposit rates generally falling into the "1" range, and high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit being withdrawn [2]. - Major state-owned banks initiated a round of interest rate cuts on May 20, 2025, reducing the interest rate on demand deposits by 5 basis points to 0.05%, and cutting rates on short-term fixed deposits by 15 basis points [2]. - Smaller banks have been more aggressive in their rate cuts, with some reducing three-year fixed deposit rates from 2.8% to 2.15% and five-year rates from 2.8% to 2.1% [2]. Group 2: Withdrawal of Long-Term Deposit Products - Many private banks have already removed five-year fixed deposit products, while state-owned banks have significantly reduced the availability of three and five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit [3]. - The trend of withdrawing long-term deposit products is evident across various banks, with major state-owned banks no longer offering five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit on their mobile banking apps [3]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The prolonged low macro interest rate environment has led to a decrease in loan market quoted rates (LPR), resulting in lower bank loan yields while deposit costs remain rigid, compressing net interest margins [4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, with state-owned banks at 1.31% and joint-stock banks at 1.56%, all at historical lows [4]. - Many smaller banks have paused new business for three to five-year fixed deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit to reduce high-cost long-term funding, thereby enhancing funding flexibility [4]. Group 4: Impact on Resident Asset Allocation - Data from the central bank indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth of resident fixed deposits slowed significantly, with a noticeable shift towards higher-yielding assets such as wealth management products, insurance, and gold [5]. - The interaction between non-bank institutions and resident deposits has increased market trading activity, reflecting a trend towards diversified asset allocation [5]. - In 2025, local banks employed gift marketing and loan-deposit linkage strategies to maintain customer loyalty, while state-owned banks focused on optimizing liability structures and cost control [5]. Group 5: Outlook for 2026 - Industry experts predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the "deposit migration" trend expected to persist as residents continue to shift savings towards diversified assets [7]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of outstanding wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [7]. - Analysts forecast that retail deposit average rates will decrease by approximately 30 basis points in 2026, with a significant increase in the growth of non-fixed deposit investments [7]. Group 6: Differentiated Strategies Among Banks - In 2026, different types of banks are expected to adopt varied strategies, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may be more sensitive to deposit rates [8]. - Smaller banks are likely to attract deposits through differentiated pricing, flexible term products, and innovative offerings linked to gold, foreign exchange, or stock indices [8]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance service levels and innovate product designs to improve the proportion of demand and short-term deposits, thereby optimizing deposit maturity structures [8].